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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

But many other forecasters have carried out an analysis of the relative weakness of the UK economy in the 24 months after the vote to leave the EU and concluded that as a consequence we lost between 1.5 and 2.5% of GDP and real incomes were between 3 and 5% lower. 

 

Its not "many" and they all just use unquestioingly the cer model.

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2 hours ago, crouch said:

Do you read the Sunday Times? I don't any longer but some years ago in January they use to ask around 20 bodies to do forecasts (or the forecasts were public) of things like GDP growth; inflation and unemployment. At beginning of the next year they checked to see how they'd done. One or two were quite near but the majority were out quite significantly, some spectacularly so.

If the techniques were so good why would the forecasts themselves vary so much - because they did; and why were most so wrong when compared to the actual outcome?

As you say it is indeed pointless arguing this point.

We are not talking about the future, this is in the past. Models are far better tools for understanding the past than predicting the future. 

Even Minford accepts that the vote has had a significant effect, he thinks it was 1.8%.

If Leaving wasn't about economics, why are Leavers so desperate to argue the point. especially as it usually seems to be from a position of no knowledge of the topic.    

 

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3 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

We are not talking about the future, this is in the past. Models are far better tools for understanding the past than predicting the future. 

Even Minford accepts that the vote has had a significant effect, he thinks it was 1.8%.

If Leaving wasn't about economics, why are Leavers so desperate to argue the point. especially as it usually seems to be from a position of no knowledge of the topic.    

 

I would never deny that Brexit has already had some adverse effect. Minford may be right as to magnitude and an adverse effect at least in the short term is almost guaranteed.. And we haven't seen the end of that.

I don't think Leavers are "desperate" to argue the point; but there has been far too much reliance on forecasts into the future when these are, at root, speculative and may be quite wrong. In 1971 the White Paper on EEC entry contained no forecasts because they said that any outcomes depended on the reaction of individuals and businesses to changed circumstances.

Also you can hardly blame people for being sceptical about even very short term forecasts about the effect of Brexit which have been almost laughably wrong. They may not understand forecasting but they know when something is wrong. The BOE forecasts of economic Armageddon were shown to contain some rather extreme assumption and this does nothing for the debate because it implies that these bodies are not honest and are working to an agenda.

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7 minutes ago, crouch said:

I would never deny that Brexit has already had some adverse effect. Minford may be right as to magnitude and an adverse effect at least in the short term is almost guaranteed.. And we haven't seen the end of that.

I don't think Leavers are "desperate" to argue the point; but there has been far too much reliance on forecasts into the future when these are, at root, speculative and may be quite wrong. In 1971 the White Paper on EEC entry contained no forecasts because they said that any outcomes depended on the reaction of individuals and businesses to changed circumstances.

Also you can hardly blame people for being sceptical about even very short term forecasts about the effect of Brexit which have been almost laughably wrong. They may not understand forecasting but they know when something is wrong. The BOE forecasts of economic Armageddon were shown to contain some rather extreme assumption and this does nothing for the debate because it implies that these bodies are not honest and are working to an agenda.

What you are referring to is the Osborne's political and ridiculous forecast of what would have happened if A50 had been invoked within a few days of the vote and the BoE/Treasury had not taken any action to offset the impact of the vote - a situation that didn't and never would have happened.  

The real (and entirely separate) short medium/term forecasts have proved accurate, so much so that the Treasury have so far seen no need to revise them.

Project fear is delivering as predicted and remember that in addition to the loss of GDP, the Treasury spent about £60 offsetting the immediate impact of the vote. 

With or without a deal the UK will adjust to life outside the EU but it will require many more years of austerity and for a lot of people their lives will be harder because of it.

If we are very unfortunate our Brexit recession will coincide with a wider European or Global recession. that would be very nasty and shows up the Leavers gloating over every bit of bad news coming out of Europe for the numpties they are. 

  

 

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4 hours ago, IMHAL said:

You need to read what I said again. I am asking what trade off are we making for the economic impact of Brexit..... can you define what the benefits will be that we have exchanged for this?

It's a simple question. We will pay a price in terms of economic impact....so what is the real and tangible upside? I does not have to be money...but at the end of the day when people start to question the logic of Brexit and want to see what they have got for their money (or loss of it)...isn't it a good idea to tell them what they have got in exchange?

They have gained some theoretical sovereignty from certain European states in matters of trade and standards. There may be no tangible upside to this but it will feel good for a while.

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26 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

They have gained some theoretical sovereignty from certain European states in matters of trade and standards. There may be no tangible upside to this but it will feel good for a while.

Has Greenland gained sovereignty by leaving the EEC?

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4 hours ago, kzb said:

No this thread is very light on facts which is why I post stuff like this for debate.

So is it 70 or 36?  I honestly don't know.  Who is lying, the EU or Facts4EU?

Where has the EU listed 5 agreements with 5 separate South African states? In the list of EU trade deals I've seen one of the 36 is agreement with the South Africa Development Community. Your website appears to have sneakily counted the 5 states in the SA customs union (a different but related thing from the SADC) and claimed that the EU counts the deal 5 times. Not even a distortion, an outright lie. I spotted that straight away how could you not of?

Edited by smash

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2 hours ago, crouch said:

Clearly the analogy is completely lost on you.

Analogies only go so far....and as I have said previously.....the two situation are not comparable.....at all. 

Now back to the question............what is the upside for all the economic agro?

So far I been given........ nothing......xcept some notion of intangibles and an inappropriate analogy. Not much compensation for the monetary loss..... is it?

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2 hours ago, Wayward said:

If Brexit means an end to FOM we will see lower rents and higher wages...That will do nicely thank you. 

Good luck with your government's immigration promises. The trouble is you still trust them.

https://news.sky.com/story/non-eu-migration-to-uk-highest-for-14-years-but-eu-migration-slows-11566853

As for wages. When the shit hits the fan after your great day and unemployment goes through the roof, you will STILL be competing with immigrants. The Tories will still be in power. They can ramp up help for their very wealthy friends at even greater cost to all of us. Well done!

What is Brexit for?

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10 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Analogies only go so far....and as I have said previously.....the two situation are not comparable.....at all. 

Now back to the question............what is the upside for all the economic agro?

So far I been given........ nothing......xcept some notion of intangibles and an inappropriate analogy. Not much compensation for the monetary loss..... is it?

You will never get anything positively quantifiable from them becasue there is nothing positive from Brexshit. And they know it. There is no up-side; there are no unicorns. Otherwise they would have plastered it on a big red bus by now. 

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1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

We are not talking about the future, this is in the past. Models are far better tools for understanding the past than predicting the future. 

Even Minford accepts that the vote has had a significant effect, he thinks it was 1.8%.

If Leaving wasn't about economics, why are Leavers so desperate to argue the point. especially as it usually seems to be from a position of no knowledge of the topic.    

 

1.8%.

Gotta love that decimal place. 🤣

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1 minute ago, jonb2 said:

Good luck with your government's immigration promises. The trouble is you still trust them.

https://news.sky.com/story/non-eu-migration-to-uk-highest-for-14-years-but-eu-migration-slows-11566853

 

The gaslighters will ensure that the headline figure comes down but there will be so many exemptions, exceptions and conditional waivers that the statistic will be meaningless. And, of course, there's Bozzie's amnesty for illegals which will guarantee a few hundred thousand more.

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1 hour ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Has Greenland gained sovereignty by leaving the EEC?

Greenland is an interesting case. 91% of exports are fish and fish related products. Population of about 50k...roughly the size of an average town. The cfp was the main reason it left the eec. Greenlanders are EU citizens and they are heavily subsidised by Denmark.....to the tune of 50% of it's revenues.

Sorry..... I meander......how sovereign is Greenland? They sound more like a charity case to me.

Edit: i would support Brexit if we could find ourselves a suitable sugar daddy.....and we could remain EU citizens......   there...,..the benefits are obvious..........

Edited by IMHAL

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7 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

You will never get anything positively quantifiable from them becasue there is nothing positive from Brexshit. And they know it. There is no up-side; there are no unicorns. Otherwise they would have plastered it on a big red bus by now. 

I have an open mind on this....I'm getting some bluster from the odd leaver.....but, so far it's not looking good......

Trouble is... what are they going to tell the people when tshtf?

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5 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Greenland is an interesting case. 91% of exports are fish and fish related products. Population of about 50k...roughly the size of an average town. The cfp was the main reason it left the eec. Greenlanders are EU citizens and they are heavily subsidised by Denmark.....to the tune of 50% of it's revenues.

Sorry..... I meander......how sovereign is Greenland?

So they’ve gained sovereignty.

Thanks for confirming that.

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12 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

The gaslighters will ensure that the headline figure comes down but there will be so many exemptions, exceptions and conditional waivers that the statistic will be meaningless. And, of course, there's Bozzie's amnesty for illegals which will guarantee a few hundred thousand more.

Yup, meanwhile this.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-settled-status-application-children-eu-citizens-yvette-cooper-home-office-a8775216.html

 

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10 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

I have an open mind on this....I'm getting some bluster from the odd leaver.....but, so far it's not looking good......

Trouble is... what are they going to tell the people when tshtf?

Well my man you can only keep an open mind for so long. We have had almost 3 years of this nonsense. For me that is quite long enough to know whether or not someone is going to ruck up with the goods, so to speak. Despite the vile, sick and twisted amusement that many of the leavers appear to enjoy on here, this is not some f'ckin' play school show and tell; peoples livelihoods and lives are at stake. Between you and me, I have a close family member currently battling cancer and going through chemotherapy. If this shitshow means that their treatment or drugs gets delayed by just 1 day, I will hold every single leaver accountable and would consider doing a Neeson.

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39 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

So they’ve gained sovereignty.

Thanks for confirming that.

Desperado......when will you come to your senses... 

Have you no pride? What use sovereignty when you are dependent on others charity?

Edited by IMHAL

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6 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Well my man you can only keep an open mind for so long. We have had almost 3 years of this nonsense. For me that is quite long enough to know whether or not someone is going to ruck up with the goods, so to speak. Despite the vile, sick and twisted amusement that many of the leavers appear to enjoy on here, this is not some f'ckin' play school show and tell; peoples livelihoods and lives are at stake. Between you and me, I have a close family member currently battling cancer and going through chemotherapy. If this shitshow means that their treatment or drugs gets delayed by just 1 day, I will hold every single leaver accountable and would consider doing a Neeson.

I am sorry to hear that. I also agree that we have had quite enough obfuscation from Leavers. The issue is too serious for the type of horseplay we see here. 

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2 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Desperado......when will you come to your senses... 

Have you no pride?

 

What an odd thing to say.

 

"For Greenland it's not entirely an economic question but also a question of sovereignty … In that sense the crucial concept is national identity and the idea that control over our own resources is important,"

Dr Ulrik Gad

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-09/greenland-the-only-country-to-have-left-the-eu/8005036

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19 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

 

What an odd thing to say.

 

"For Greenland it's not entirely an economic question but also a question of sovereignty … In that sense the crucial concept is national identity and the idea that control over our own resources is important,"

Dr Ulrik Gad

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-09/greenland-the-only-country-to-have-left-the-eu/8005036

Why do you coninue to persist with Greenland as an example?

It's not an issue of economics for them.....duh.....surprise surprise .....because they are insolvent and are being sub'd by Denmark ffs...........we don't have that luxury........ It is a pitiful and none real world example GD and most unbecoming of you. 

For Greenland it's a no brainer......they are a one trick pony....fish..fish ....fish... they have a sugar daddy to the tune of 50% of their revenues......they keep EU citizenship...... on that basis I'd vote to leave........but we are not in that situation.

If you could provide that kind of rational for the UK then you would have me as a convert. Ball is in your court.

 

Edited by IMHAL

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