Dorkins Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On the other hand MPs might call May's bluff and assume that if they vote the withdrawal agreement down again she will just revoke/extend A50 rather than go for a no deal Brexit on March 30th. Certainly seems hard to imagine a pragmatist like May allowing an essentially uncontrolled exit process to actually happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yelims Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 54 minutes ago, kzb said: It was about the EU trumpeting the fact that it is Australia's 3rd largest trading partner, but it turns out a huge slice of this is down to the UK only. The implication being, Australia would surely want to ensure this UK trade continued after Brexit. Come first April will UK have a trade deal with Australia? EU Australia deal about to close Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Dorkins said: I don't know, seems like smart politics to me. When MPs voted against the withdrawal agreement they did exactly what they accuse Leave voters of doing: voting against something without proposing a workable alternative. Like children MPs were able to adopt this unreasonable position because at the time there were no consequences. Well if they try it again with March 30th looming there are much more likely to be consequences i.e. a no deal Brexit. It's almost the definition of being a functioning adult, making decisions that have consequences. Welcome to government, power, sovereignty etc. I don't think it was unreasonable to vote against a deal which is the worst of all worlds and, if it comes to it, I hope they do it again. It's May that is being unreasonable in running down the clock to force a choice between two unacceptable options rather than offer an acceptable option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 hours ago, jonb2 said: You can't explain, leavers know it all The same combination of disgusted philistinism, financial illiteracy and jingo f*ckwittery we see on display every week in the Question Time audience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 hours ago, crouch said: Of course the report refers to the frictional difficulties of no deal and there is no doubt that this is a warning that should be taken very seriously. However, the poster has implied that this is a downside of Brexit generally when it is not; it is frictional difficulty of a no deal scenario. Brexit means the CAP is dustbinned and we are free of the costs of the CAP, mostly in terms of higher food prices which impact on the poorest the most. Brexit will enable us to import food at World prices and selectively subsidise agricultural sectors for strategic or social reasons. This will be a substantial benefit but may well see more businesses withe a European orientation go out of business as a result. https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/9562 See the above link....it's not at all clear that food prices will decrease as a result of Brexit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 51 minutes ago, crouch said: If it was an unknown factor how do you know it has left no trace? Again you're making assumptions. Also and as I have said before the researchers themselves cannot ascribe all the effect to Brexit; they are assuming it. Their words not mine. Counterfactuals imply assumptions and where you have assumptions you have potential error. I don't know if the figures they quote are ascribable to Brexit and neither do they by their own admission. And neither do you. But many other forecasters have carried out an analysis of the relative weakness of the UK economy in the 24 months after the vote to leave the EU and concluded that as a consequence we lost between 1.5 and 2.5% of GDP and real incomes were between 3 and 5% lower. In the absence of any other candidates to explain this, i am prepared to believe that there is no mystery and that it is beyond reasonable doubt that Brexit was responsible. Quite why you bother arguing this pointless point is altogether more mysterious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 hours ago, Riedquat said: And that's a very convenient position for you. Anything that can't be potentially nailed down with a fixed measurement you can dismiss as undefined and unacceptable, and once again you end up saying "only measurable economic considerations matter." No-one's claiming they don't matter but it's a big mistake to fixate on them mattering 100% to the exclusion of all else. By measurable standards I made a big mistake moving to where I currently live. More time and money spent on commuting - higher living costs. There is no measurable benefit that I could define to your satisfaction that would say it was the right move, but it was simply because I'm rather happier for it. Different people, different surroundings, different atmosphere, different aesthetics - they've all proved more beneficial than the monetary cost but you can't measure or define them other than to say that's what they are. You need to read what I said again. I am asking what trade off are we making for the economic impact of Brexit..... can you define what the benefits will be that we have exchanged for this? It's a simple question. We will pay a price in terms of economic impact....so what is the real and tangible upside? I does not have to be money...but at the end of the day when people start to question the logic of Brexit and want to see what they have got for their money (or loss of it)...isn't it a good idea to tell them what they have got in exchange? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 (edited) 10 minutes ago, IMHAL said: https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/9562 See the above link....it's not at all clear that food prices will decrease as a result of Brexit. Many things are not clear. Edited February 12, 2019 by crouch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, crouch said: Many things are not clear. What is clear is that the benefits we are trading off for the real and tangible economic losses due to Brexit are elusive, undefinable, not measurable etc etc It's almost as if they don't exist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 (edited) 13 minutes ago, IMHAL said: You need to read what I said again. I am asking what trade off are we making for the economic impact of Brexit..... can you define what the benefits will be that we have exchanged for this? It's a simple question. We will pay a price in terms of economic impact....so what is the real and tangible upside? I does not have to be money...but at the end of the day when people start to question the logic of Brexit and want to see what they have got for their money (or loss of it)...isn't it a good idea to tell them what they have got in exchange? I know that's what you're asking, which is why my reply was explaining why you're not necessarily asking the right questions. People have pointed them out, a multitude of times, yet you continue to dismiss them because they're not "real and tangible." The point is that they don't have to be but that does not make them any less meaningful for the people they matter to. They may not matter to you and therefore Brexit is not right for you. They matter to other people, and therefore it is right for them. But what isn't right is saying "it has to meet my criteria otherwise it's wrong for everyone." You simply cannot tell people that they are wrong to value whatever they value, whether it's tangible or not. Quote What is clear is that the benefits we are trading off for the real and tangible economic losses due to Brexit are elusive, undefinable, not measurable etc etc It's almost as if they don't exist. Love, friendship, the joy from music, art, beautiful surroundings - they're all examples of intangible, non-measurable things that are very worthwhile for lots of people. Do you dismiss those so easily and say they don't exist because you can't measure them too? Is anyone who chooses some of them over more money automatically a fool? It would be an empty existence indeed if only those things that we can easily see and measure objectively mattered! Edited February 12, 2019 by Riedquat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: But many other forecasters have carried out an analysis of the relative weakness of the UK economy in the 24 months after the vote to leave the EU and concluded that as a consequence we lost between 1.5 and 2.5% of GDP and real incomes were between 3 and 5% lower. In the absence of any other candidates to explain this, i am prepared to believe that there is no mystery and that it is beyond reasonable doubt that Brexit was responsible. Quite why you bother arguing this pointless point is altogether more mysterious. Do you read the Sunday Times? I don't any longer but some years ago in January they use to ask around 20 bodies to do forecasts (or the forecasts were public) of things like GDP growth; inflation and unemployment. At beginning of the next year they checked to see how they'd done. One or two were quite near but the majority were out quite significantly, some spectacularly so. If the techniques were so good why would the forecasts themselves vary so much - because they did; and why were most so wrong when compared to the actual outcome? As you say it is indeed pointless arguing this point. Edited February 12, 2019 by crouch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 15 minutes ago, IMHAL said: What is clear is that the benefits we are trading off for the real and tangible economic losses due to Brexit are elusive, undefinable, not measurable etc etc It's almost as if they don't exist. See Riedquat's post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said: Do you believe every bit of anti-EU disingenuous and simplistic propaganda you can find. Surely after all your time spent on here you have must come across the actual facts, so why do you post such intelligence insulting propaganda. No this thread is very light on facts which is why I post stuff like this for debate. So is it 70 or 36? I honestly don't know. Who is lying, the EU or Facts4EU? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, Riedquat said: I know that's what you're asking, which is why my reply was explaining why you're not necessarily asking the right questions. People have pointed them out, a multitude of times, yet you continue to dismiss them because they're not "real and tangible." The point is that they don't have to be but that does not make them any less meaningful for the people they matter to. They may not matter to you and therefore Brexit is not right for you. They matter to other people, and therefore it is right for them. But what isn't right is saying "it has to meet my criteria otherwise it's wrong for everyone." You simply cannot tell people that they are wrong to value whatever they value, whether it's tangible or not. Love, friendship, the joy from music, art, beautiful surroundings - they're all examples of intangible, non-measurable things that are very worthwhile for lots of people. Do you dismiss those so easily and say they don't exist because you can't measure them too? Is anyone who chooses some of them over more money automatically a fool? It would be an empty existence indeed if only those things that we can easily see and measure objectively mattered! You seem able to identify none tangible things......as you have done above...can you do similarly with Brexit please? I will repeat...when people have suffered a losss of income or their jobs....they will be asking what they have received in turn. Will they get more love, friendship or what? I have never heard anyone going around before the Brexit referendum say that they are suffering from a lack of sovereignty... or too much sovereignty...so how about you give it a go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, crouch said: Do you read the Sunday Times? I don't any longer but some years ago in January they use to ask around 20 bodies to do forecasts (or the forecasts were public) of things like GDP growth; inflation and unemployment. At beginning of the next year they checked to see how they'd done. One or two were quite near but the majority were out quite significantly, some spectacularly so. If the techniques were so good why would the forecasts themselves vary so much - because they did; and why were most so wrong when compared to the actual outcome? As you say it is indeed pointless arguing this point. It's also possible to validate computer models (or not) by back-forecasting. Strangely, you never hear about that in this area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 (edited) 14 minutes ago, IMHAL said: You seem able to identify none tangible things......as you have done above...can you do similarly with Brexit please? I will repeat...when people have suffered a losss of income or their jobs....they will be asking what they have received in turn. Will they get more love, friendship or what? I have never heard anyone going around before the Brexit referendum say that they are suffering from a lack of sovereignty... or too much sovereignty...so how about you give it a go. Take South Africa. Suppose in 1994 shortly before apartheid ended the government said to the people: we 've had some studies carried out and we believe that the lifting of apartheid will mean a significant loss of prosperity over the years to the nation. Let us suppose that the analysis was done abroad and was disinterested and that we do indeed know the future so the loss of prosperity is certain, beyond any dispute. As a result of this the government said that we will put the choice whether or not to end apartheid to the people in a plebiscite. How do you think black Africa would have voted? Edited February 12, 2019 by crouch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkHorseWaits-NoMore Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, GrizzlyDave said: ...Dr Fox is doing a great job. #wecandothis Oxymoron. ? That's just mental. .. Funny though ??. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yelims Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 48 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: But many other forecasters have carried out an analysis of the relative weakness of the UK economy in the 24 months after the vote to leave the EU and concluded that as a consequence we lost between 1.5 and 2.5% of GDP and real incomes were between 3 and 5% lower. In the absence of any other candidates to explain this, i am prepared to believe that there is no mystery and that it is beyond reasonable doubt that Brexit was responsible. Quite why you bother arguing this pointless point is altogether more mysterious. Diesel is responsible it's all fault of diesel cars /s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 (edited) 11 minutes ago, crouch said: Take South Africa. Suppose in 1994 shortly before apartheid ended the government said to the people: we 've had some studies carried out an we believe that the lifting of apartheid will mean a significant loss of prosperity over the years to the nation. Let us suppose that the analysis was done abroad and was disinterested and that we do indeed know the future so the loss of prosperity is certain, beyond any dispute. As a result of this the government said that we will put the choice whether or not to end apartheid to the people in a plebiscite. How do you think black Africa would have voted? Nice analogy... but not actually directly comparable. However it's a start and we can work with that. You are referring to the 'freedoms' gained being greater than the economic loss. You seem to be saying that we will notice these freedoms in everyday life, I can see how Black South Africans would have seen an immediate and tangible benefit...... but I can't see how this translates into the life of your everyday Joe Bloggs here in the UK. Edited February 12, 2019 by IMHAL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, IMHAL said: Nice analogy... but not actually directly comparable. However it's a start and we can work with that. You are referring to the 'freedoms' gained being greater than the economic loss. You seem to be saying that we will notice these freedoms in everyday life (I can see how Black South Africans would have seen an immediate and tangible benefit)...... but I can't see how this translates into the life of your everyday Joe Bloggs here in the UK. How would black Africans have voted? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zilly Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, zugzwang said: The same combination of disgusted philistinism, financial illiteracy and jingo f*ckwittery we see on display every week in the Question Time audience. Awww c'mon...you're not seriously suggesting that informed intelligence is preferable to a Daily Mail subscription, a Union flag hat and a loud voice are you? Now I really have heard everything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kosmin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 54 minutes ago, crouch said: How would black Africans have voted? Bit racist mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 (edited) 58 minutes ago, crouch said: How would black Africans have voted? If I was a second class citizen then I would vote to become a first class citizen......so that I would be entitled to the same benefits as everyone else. But we not are second class citizens as part of the EU....as I said, the example is not directly comparable. However, we do seem to have voted for a reduction of our benefits, economically at least........ I guess that makes us.............. rather special Now, back to the benefits of Brexit.... what are they? Do you need some help? Edited February 12, 2019 by IMHAL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, IMHAL said: If I was a second class citizen then I would vote to become a first class citizen......so that I would be entitled to the same benefits as everyone else. But we not are second class citizens as part of the EU....as I said, the example is not directly comparable. However, we do seem to have voted for a reduction of our benefits, economically at least........ I guess that makes us.............. rather special Now, back to the benefits of Brexit.... what are they? Do you need some help? Clearly the analogy is completely lost on you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, Kosmin said: Bit racist mate! Hardly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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