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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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18 minutes ago, Exiled Canadian said:

Sorry - that's utter piffle.

The Brexit side in the referendum proposed we leave the EU.  It was incumbent upon them to say how it could be done.  They didn't.

The Remaininers said it would be a nightmare and are being proved right.  The issues have been created by the decision to leave the EU, not by the current government..

I'm not sure that any government could have untangled 40 years of close co-operation in many different areas of policy in a way satisfactory to both the UK and 27 EU member states in two years.... this chaos is a direct result of Brexit and was easily foreseeable at the time of the vote.

 

Tbf it’s been created by Leavers insisting on a hard Brexit post referendum.

If we were trying to make a success of it it would have been a strategic process rather than a spasm of nationalist spite.

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2 minutes ago, Exiled Canadian said:

I know what the contingency plans are in the business that faces the issues I set out earlier.  They involve UK redundancies to move production to the EU.  We hope to avoid this but unless we can demonstrate to our EU customers that the regulatory regime post Brexit will not put the final certification of their products at risk it's the route we'll have to take.

It strikes me as unlikely we are the only business in this position.

Why were they producing in the UK in the first place?

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13 minutes ago, Exiled Canadian said:

I'm not sure that would be legal.  I suppose we could ask for brexit supporting volunteers happy to lay down their livelihoods as a sacrifice for the golden nirvana that awaits outside of EU membership - I wonder if we'd get any takers. 

Why do you think that Remain voters jobs are more at risk?

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Just now, dances with sheeple said:

Why were they producing in the UK in the first place?

Because they were - and the product was competitive within the single market under an overarching set of standards applied by a common regulator which meant effectively if the product is deemed safe in the UK it's also deemed safe in the EU.

The product won't change - but no one has an idea what the paperwork will be as the UK operation will no longer fall under the remit of the EU regulator and so the end customer may no longer be able to certify that their product meets EU standards.

Ergo - easiest solution, get the stuff made in the EU.

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3 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

Why do you think that Remain voters jobs are more at risk?

I didn't say that.  Was just suggesting (tongue in cheek) that Brexiteers might volunteer for a P45 as part of the effort to "take back control" - given that they apparently understood the risks when they voted. 

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16 minutes ago, Exiled Canadian said:

Because they were - and the product was competitive within the single market under an overarching set of standards applied by a common regulator which meant effectively if the product is deemed safe in the UK it's also deemed safe in the EU.

The product won't change - but no one has an idea what the paperwork will be as the UK operation will no longer fall under the remit of the EU regulator and so the end customer may no longer be able to certify that their product meets EU standards.

Ergo - easiest solution, get the stuff made in the EU.

Yup...when/if the UK steps outside of the regulatory enforcement mechanism, it doesn't matter if a UK company makes a widget to EU standards, it'll still have to be checked at an EU border to check that it has been made to that standard.

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3 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

No it won't. It will go through as is now. The product hasn't changed

Yes it will, thats the whole point of the single market - to harmonise standards with an enforcement mechanism attached..The enforcement is managed via the ECJ or EFTA court..

Edited by Dave Beans

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1 minute ago, bear.getting.old said:

No it won't. It will go through as is now. The product hasn't changed

So the lawyers employed by us and our customers, the chaps in Brussels and Whitehall we've been seeking clarification from, the current EU regulator (who is still our regulator until 29th March) are having a joke at our expense then?

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On 07/02/2019 at 15:56, ****-eyed octopus said:

Religion takes the noblest feelings a human can have - a yearning towards something better than our material sublunary existence, a recognition that we are fatally flawed physical beings, that there is the possibility of something greater than ourselves - & turns into a means of subjugation. It's disgusting but always happens.

"We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars".

Oscar Wilde

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25 minutes ago, Exiled Canadian said:

Not impossible - but likely to cause massive economic damage and disruption.

I am interested to know where you see the improvement in national self determination?

 

My assessment is different to yours. Obviously.

And, for the nth time, we are far enough away from the levers of power with our present parliamentary democracy, but we do at least have a vote & we know that if enough of us vote for a change in government it will happen. And our MPs at least feel get-atable (only too much so in the case of poor Jo Cox), we can go to London, watch the process first hand, petition our MPs directly; it's just about involving enough for us to feel we have a part to play.

The EU is 10 times further removed, plus those with real political power are not even elected democratically. It just feels like a remote stitch-up by an unelected technocracy with no responsibility towards anyone outside their own bizarre bureaucratic world. To me it has all the characteristics of a dictatorship - albeit a qualified & (fairly)(presently) benign one.

I'm afraid I want nothing to do with it.

 

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1 hour ago, jonb2 said:

 

 

Yes precisely - there is no good outcome left it’s a matter of least worst. 

The first point is interesting - a no deal, currently being propagandized by Leave,  would screw over expats who were told ...

 

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7 hours ago, crouch said:

 

 

On 08/02/2019 at 13:11, crouch said:

You obviously have the gift of seeing into the future with absolute clarity; I wish I had that gift, I can't even see beyond tomorrow.

 

8 hours ago, crouch said:

They will restart QE to be sure but there have been growing doubts about the efficacy of QE for some time but, nevertheless they will try it.

Rates can't really be cut unless we go negative, which I wouldn't rule out but this would cause major trouble.

The net, net ,net of all this? If sterling does drop then they may well be forced to support it but will certainly resist that.

 

7 hours ago, crouch said:

When the EU is no more, in twenty years time, the subsequent textbooks will chronicle the hubristic decline of a utopian project that was pursued over the heads of those it was meant to benefit paying no regard to their wishes in a complete denial of democracy.

In particular the failure of the Euro will be seen as almost insane; a project that was known to be faulty and yet pursued, creating divergence with the EU and exacerbating the scandalous level of youth unemployment already existing.

Britain, which left the EU, will be seen as taking the wise decision to leave a ship that was already sinking and using the opportunity, and indeed the struggle, of leaving, to renew itself both politically and economically.

 

 

I will let the HPC community come to their own judgement.

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2 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

Exactly, so anyone losing their jobs need to stop blaming "Brexit" and start voting for politicians that are going to get out there and negotiate good trade deals for the UK, instead of trying to sabotage Brexit on behalf of the EU.

There won't be any "good" trade deals, at best in 20 yrs we will get nearly back to having nearly as good deals as we have now. 

Anyone who thinks that trade deals will replace loss of membership of the single market clearly hasn't looked at the subject at all. 

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2 hours ago, jonb2 said:

Who do you have in mind?? Chris Grayling? Liam Fox? Johnson the diplomat? Priti Patel? Clever David Davis? The haunted pencil?

There is nobody.

It's not sabotage, it's realism. Pure and simple.

PMSL Thats a good one. I chortled out loud. I always imagine him as Walter the Softy. 

 

walter.jpg

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19 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

There won't be any "good" trade deals, at best in 20 yrs we will get nearly back to having nearly as good deals as we have now. 

Anyone who thinks that trade deals will replace loss of membership of the single market clearly hasn't looked at the subject at all. 

DwS says he has full confidence in Farage and is going to vote for his new party. It might be possible that Nigel will get the UK the best trade deals with the worlds leading economies. A cracking deal on Belgian chocolate, the only thing of note from that country.

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2 hours ago, Exiled Canadian said:

I'm not sure that would be legal.  I suppose we could ask for brexit supporting volunteers happy to lay down their livelihoods as a sacrifice for the golden nirvana that awaits outside of EU membership - I wonder if we'd get any takers. 

Well, as we keep getting reminded, to leavers it is not about money or economics, so I imagine that they will be queueing up to lose their jobs first for the greater good of eating sovereignity and living away from their feared EU dictatorship. 

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2 hours ago, Exiled Canadian said:

Because they were - and the product was competitive within the single market under an overarching set of standards applied by a common regulator which meant effectively if the product is deemed safe in the UK it's also deemed safe in the EU.

The product won't change - but no one has an idea what the paperwork will be as the UK operation will no longer fall under the remit of the EU regulator and so the end customer may no longer be able to certify that their product meets EU standards.

Ergo - easiest solution, get the stuff made in the EU.

UK can just follow EU guidelines and make it`s products compatible for that market, surely we have had plenty of practice? The last thing the EU want as it slips into recession is a "Buy British" campaign from a market as big as ours, and the next last thing it wants to do is somehow try to punish us with legislation/tariffs, the EU electorate are not going to stand for this as they will just want to sell into our market and won`t want reprisal legislation/tariffs.

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1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

There won't be any "good" trade deals, at best in 20 yrs we will get nearly back to having nearly as good deals as we have now

Anyone who thinks that trade deals will replace loss of membership of the single market clearly hasn't looked at the subject at all. 

How could you possibly know this? The EU and the "single market" isn`t going to be around in 20 years would be my bet if I was trying to be psychic.

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2 hours ago, Exiled Canadian said:

I didn't say that.  Was just suggesting (tongue in cheek) that Brexiteers might volunteer for a P45 as part of the effort to "take back control" - given that they apparently understood the risks when they voted

The risks of an incompetent pro-EU government and a belligerent dying EU dinosaur lashing out at anything that challenges it  you mean? I think most people expected the second part, but the sheer inability of May and her team to negotiate anything of value probably took quite a few by surprise :lol: More reason to get rid of this government and the EU though IMO.

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14 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

UK can just follow EU guidelines and make it`s products compatible for that market, surely we have had plenty of practice? The last thing the EU want as it slips into recession is a "Buy British" campaign from a market as big as ours, and the next last thing it wants to do is somehow try to punish us with legislation/tariffs, the EU electorate are not going to stand for this as they will just want to sell into our market and won`t want reprisal legislation/tariffs.

Punish?  It’s the byproduct of becoming a third country.  Punitive tariffs can’t be placed just on the UK.

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39 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

UK can just follow EU guidelines and make it`s products compatible for that market, surely we have had plenty of practice? The last thing the EU want as it slips into recession is a "Buy British" campaign from a market as big as ours, and the next last thing it wants to do is somehow try to punish us with legislation/tariffs, the EU electorate are not going to stand for this as they will just want to sell into our market and won`t want reprisal legislation/tariffs.

Sorry - but that's unicorn thinking in this case.  We will be leaving the Single Market. This is not the EU lashing out, it is us choosing to leave.

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51 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

How could you possibly know this? The EU and the "single market" isn`t going to be around in 20 years would be my bet if I was trying to be psychic.

In the same way I know Blackpool will not win the FA Cup next year. I could be wrong but its not likely.

Your last few posts have shown you have no idea what you are talking about. I don't claim to be anything like an expert in trade issues but have managed to move on from unconscious incompetence. Probably only as far as conscious incompetence but that's still ahead of most of the people giving us the benefit of their opinions.    

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  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   325 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


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