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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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5 minutes ago, crouch said:

Fiat currencies nearly always fail.

No, I mean the collapse of Bretton Woods, what is your opinion. Good/bad?

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2 hours ago, crouch said:

I'm not blaming them I'm merely saying that Brexit is a contingency and the function of management is to plan for contingencies. If bad weather is forecast they should plan for that; it's no different in principle. 

Err right - do you run a business?

Firstly it's been impossible to tell what "Brexit" will actually mean.  Sure we've stockpiled raw materials and talked to European customers about how we can keep them supplied if there's trouble at the ports (generally meaning us funding consignment stocks at their premises).  That's OK for a couple of months.

Longer term we still have no idea what regulatory regime will apply, whether our products which are currently certified by European body will continue to be certified (and what if any UK certification process will replace it, and if it does this will be recognised in Europe).  As a result a number of our European customers are now seeking alternative supply from our EU based competitors as we are not in a position to answer some pretty basic questions.

These are real issues which are already resulting in lost business for the UK.  If we can't resolve them quickly and lose business as a result then people's jobs are at risk.

Part of our contingency plan is redundancies if we are unable to maintain the same level of exports to the EU.  If it comes to this is there any message you'd like to pass on to those who loose their jobs?

Edited by Exiled Canadian

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8 minutes ago, crouch said:

Who said this was not inconvenient? There will be problems; my point is that it is not Armageddon, just a fairly routine contingency.

Inconvenient and routine?  A number of businesses that run on tight margins and/or have high material costs will be bankrupt...

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7 minutes ago, crouch said:

I'm sure they've been considering this for some time and, one way or another will get around it. Businesses are used to this.

As for it being terminal; maybe, maybe not - I have no idea.

No they're not.  Good businesses do not increase their inventories they constantly work to reduce them.

Even if they wanted to where are they going to put all these inventories?  Under tarps in the car park? 

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17 minutes ago, wish I could afford one said:

So you're expecting every business that could be greatly affected by Brexit to expend precious resources (people and money) on trying to second guess what might happen and then put processes in place to deal with all those what ifs?

Personally, I think a better option would be for our politicians to grow a pair and make some decisions for the betterment of the country vs themselves and their party.  That way those said businesses can use their precious resources to figure out how better to take on their now very global competition.  Then if they have any left after that they might want to return some of it in the form of dividends to the shareholders, which includes our pension funds.

Brexiteers are not spending their money on contingency .......what do they care. The fact that a lot of business's may not even be able to afford to make these plans is water off a ducks back to these guys.....not to mention those who rely on current frictionless trade arrangements.

They are so certain that the EU is evil/will inplode that anything is justifiable.........it's nothing but a cult..... these same guys will be saying 'in twenty years time'......in twenty years time...whilst the row will be scratching their heads wondering why the EU armagedonist idiots where allowed to inflict so much misery to a former prosperous nation.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Exiled Canadian said:

Err right - do you run a business?

Firstly it's been impossible to tell what "Brexit" will actually mean.  Sure we've stockpiled raw materials and talked to European customers about how we can keep them supplied if there's trouble at the ports (generally meaning us funding consignment stocks at their premises).  That's OK for a couple of months.

Longer term we still have no idea what regulatory regime will apply, whether our products which are currently certified by European body will continue to be certified (and what if any UK certification process will replace it, and if it does this will be recognised in Europe).  As a result a number of our European customers are now seeking alternative supply from our EU based competitors as we are not in a position to answer some pretty basic questions.

These are real issues which are already resulting in lost business for the UK.  If we can't resolve them quickly and lose business as a result then people's jobs are at risk.

Part of our contingency plan is redundancies if we are unable to maintain the same level of exports to the EU.  If it comes to this is there any message you'd like to pass on to those who loose their jobs?

This.

I can imagine what the global competitors have in the O of their SWOT analyses these days.

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10 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

No, I mean the collapse of Bretton Woods, what is your opinion. Good/bad?

On balance good. Floating currencies do give a degree of flexibility.

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2 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Brexiteers are not spending their money on contingency .......what do they care. The fact that a lot of business's may not even be able to afford to make these plans is water off a ducks back to these guys.....not to mention those who rely on current frictionless trade arrangements.

They are so certain that the EU is evil/will inplode that anything is justifiable.........it's nothing but a cult..... these same guys will be saying 'in twenty years time'......in twenty years time...whilst the row will be scratching their heads wondering why the EU armagedonist idiots where allowed to inflict so much misery to a former prosperous nation.

I must have mis-remembered.  Wasn't JRM saying that we'd see all the unicorns in 50 years?

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1 minute ago, crouch said:

On balance good. Floating currencies do give a degree of flexibility.

Ok, just wanted to fix your opinion. Glad it aligns with your view that the Euro is bad, inconvenient otherwise.

One way of looking at floating currencies is a measure of relative wealth/earnings. Under a fixed rate system, countries would have to intentionally lower their minimum wages and cut salaries if they decided they wanted to compete on price rather than quality. The population won't let them do it though. Luckily with a floating rate system, the population don't get a choice.

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6 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Ok, just wanted to fix your opinion. Glad it aligns with your view that the Euro is bad, inconvenient otherwise.

One way of looking at floating currencies is a measure of relative wealth/earnings. Under a fixed rate system, countries would have to intentionally lower their minimum wages and cut salaries if they decided they wanted to compete on price rather than quality. The population won't let them do it though. Luckily with a floating rate system, the population don't get a choice.

...or notice they're being made globally poorer.

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57 minutes ago, Exiled Canadian said:

Err right - do you run a business?

Firstly it's been impossible to tell what "Brexit" will actually mean.  Sure we've stockpiled raw materials and talked to European customers about how we can keep them supplied if there's trouble at the ports (generally meaning us funding consignment stocks at their premises).  That's OK for a couple of months.

Longer term we still have no idea what regulatory regime will apply, whether our products which are currently certified by European body will continue to be certified (and what if any UK certification process will replace it, and if it does this will be recognised in Europe).  As a result a number of our European customers are now seeking alternative supply from our EU based competitors as we are not in a position to answer some pretty basic questions.

These are real issues which are already resulting in lost business for the UK.  If we can't resolve them quickly and lose business as a result then people's jobs are at risk.

Part of our contingency plan is redundancies if we are unable to maintain the same level of exports to the EU.  If it comes to this is there any message you'd like to pass on to those who loose their jobs?

Who has said there won't be problems? Not me. Some businesses will be affected severely, including yours from the sound of it. Many won't.

Also you are conflating the Brexit decision in principle with the subsequent incompetence, which is staggering and undeniable. Most of your post details incompetence and you want to elide that with the decision in principle. You can't.

Edited by crouch

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13 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Ok, just wanted to fix your opinion. Glad it aligns with your view that the Euro is bad, inconvenient otherwise.

One way of looking at floating currencies is a measure of relative wealth/earnings. Under a fixed rate system, countries would have to intentionally lower their minimum wages and cut salariesexchange rate if they decided they wanted to compete on price rather than quality. The population won't let them do it though. Luckily with a floating rate system, the population don't get a choice.

The problem with the Euro is that it does not have fiscal or banking union.

Also the Euro exchange rate is inappropriate for some countries in the EZ. Because individual members do not control the Euro exchange rate they cannot devalue as a tool.

The ECB controls the interest rate.

In addition the Growth and Stability Pact puts controls on fiscal deficits so that there are limits to what can be done here.

The net effect is that members of the EZ have to use internal devaluation as an adjustment mechanism. This cam be painful as Germany found out when it carried out the Hartz 4 reforms.

The Euro is almost guaranteed to fail and it may take the EU with it.

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Just now, wish I could afford one said:

I must have mis-remembered.  Wasn't JRM saying that we'd see all the unicorns in 50 years?

50 years to brew up and fart a full unicorn....20 years for a hind.

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35 minutes ago, crouch said:

The problem with the Euro is that it does not have fiscal or banking union.

Also the Euro exchange rate is inappropriate for some countries in the EZ. Because individual members do not control the Euro exchange rate they cannot devalue as a tool.

The ECB controls the interest rate.

In addition the Growth and Stability Pact puts controls on fiscal deficits so that there are limits to what can be done here.

The net effect is that members of the EZ have to use internal devaluation as an adjustment mechanism. This cam be painful as Germany found out when it carried out the Hartz 4 reforms.

Yes, this is what I've said above. Populations don't like their government making them poorer but a floating rate currency allows this to happen and not much the people can do about it. Look at us in the UK. Several years ago before brexit I turned down a role in Switzerland paying roughly my UK salary + 10% (at the time). I regret it now. Since then I've received a 20% pay-cut in international currency due to GBP drop. 

The Euro was obviously designed to stop countries from competing by playing currency wars and all that implies while bringing more transparency, but it has brought its own set of problems. I'm undecided if this is good or not. I can understand the rationale but unfortunately optics plays a part.

Edited by dugsbody

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1 hour ago, crouch said:

Who said this was not inconvenient? There will be problems; my point is that it is not Armageddon, just a fairly routine contingency.

Ah yet another Brexshit negative - inconvenient.

When will you leavers start to list the benefits of Brexshit? 

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1 minute ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Ah yet another Brexshit negative - inconvenient.

When will you leavers start to list the benefits of Brexshit? 

I think they already have. The ability to make life better for people by ceasing to pool some sovereignty with a particular group of nations. And if we have to endure things being worse in practice in order to regain the theoretical ability to make things better, it is worth it. Apparently.

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1 hour ago, Exiled Canadian said:

Err right - do you run a business?

Firstly it's been impossible to tell what "Brexit" will actually mean.  Sure we've stockpiled raw materials and talked to European customers about how we can keep them supplied if there's trouble at the ports (generally meaning us funding consignment stocks at their premises).  That's OK for a couple of months.

Longer term we still have no idea what regulatory regime will apply, whether our products which are currently certified by European body will continue to be certified (and what if any UK certification process will replace it, and if it does this will be recognised in Europe).  As a result a number of our European customers are now seeking alternative supply from our EU based competitors as we are not in a position to answer some pretty basic questions.

These are real issues which are already resulting in lost business for the UK.  If we can't resolve them quickly and lose business as a result then people's jobs are at risk.

Part of our contingency plan is redundancies if we are unable to maintain the same level of exports to the EU.  If it comes to this is there any message you'd like to pass on to those who loose their jobs?

Cheaper housing, sovereignty, innit. 

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11 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Yes, this is what I've said above. Populations don't like their government making them poorer but a floating rate currency allows this to happen and not much the people can do about it. Look at us in the UK. Several years ago before brexit I turned down a role in Switzerland paying roughly my UK salary + 10% (at the time). I regret it now. Since then I've received a 20% pay-cut in international currency due to GBP drop. 

The Euro was obviously designed to stop countries from competing by playing currency wars and all that implies while bringing more transparency, but it has brought its own set of problems. I'm undecided if this is good or not. I can understand the rationale but unfortunately optics plays a part.

It was also meant to drive convergence by defining discipline via both the exchange rate and a structure for fiscal policy limits. The legacy (entry) rates gave the German (and Netherlands)economy a permanent boost by giving them a devaluation and harmed  the PIIGS by foisting an appreciation.

This has driven divergence instead of convergence and the fiscal strictures and an interest rate determined elsewhere have meant there are few tools short of internal wage suppression and general austerity. If you were a struggling economy you would not like to be in this situation.

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7 minutes ago, crouch said:

This is just as absurd as the Remainer forecasts of doom. Discount entirely.

But surely this is what 17.4 million people voted for? Or what proportion on these are going to discount lies like this? One of hundreds uttered from day one.

Judging by the number of people still hanging on every word of the Brexit cheer-leaders, there's going to be an awful lot of disappointed leavers.

Especially when you tell them they have not achieved Sovereignty Pure until they leave NATO, the WTO, the IMF, the Commonwealth, the IMF, the OECD and the UN.

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7 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

But surely this is what 17.4 million people voted for? Or what proportion on these are going to discount lies like this? One of hundreds uttered from day one.

Judging by the number of people still hanging on every word of the Brexit cheer-leaders, there's going to be an awful lot of disappointed leavers.

Especially when you tell them they have not achieved Sovereignty Pure until they leave NATO, the WTO, the IMF, the Commonwealth, the IMF, the OECD and the UN.

Reads as satire but pretty sure we’ve had

these exasperating arguments on here...

Bye-bye NATO....

 

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36 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

But surely this is what 17.4 million people voted for? Or what proportion on these are going to discount lies like this? One of hundreds uttered from day one.

Judging by the number of people still hanging on every word of the Brexit cheer-leaders, there's going to be an awful lot of disappointed leavers.

Especially when you tell them they have not achieved Sovereignty Pure until they leave NATO, the WTO, the IMF, the Commonwealth, the IMF, the OECD and the UN.

No most Leavers voted on sovereignty and immigration not economics.

I don't think they were interested in achieving "sovereignty pure" - whatever that means, just leaving the EU.

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2 hours ago, crouch said:

Who has said there won't be problems? Not me. Some businesses will be affected severely, including yours from the sound of it. Many won't.

Also you are conflating the Brexit decision in principle with the subsequent incompetence, which is staggering and undeniable. Most of your post details incompetence and you want to elide that with the decision in principle. You can't.

Exactly, so anyone losing their jobs need to stop blaming "Brexit" and start voting for politicians that are going to get out there and negotiate good trade deals for the UK, instead of trying to sabotage Brexit on behalf of the EU.

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  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   325 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

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