Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[thehowler]

25 minutes ago, pig said:

 

In all seriousness though we are definitely through the looking glass if Leavers are now clinging onto David Cameron.

Just you wait, 'enry 'iggins, just you wait.

They'll cling onto anything that reminds leavers what was said.

[pig]

3 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Just you wait, 'enry 'iggins, just you wait.

They'll cling onto anything that reminds leavers what was said.

Lol!

No they certainly won't ! Just the bits that suit them

[pig]

22 minutes ago, highYield said:

Excellent analogy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alice_Through_the_Looking_Glass_(2016_film)

 

Hopefully those sorts of Leavers fear WW3 is about to happen and currently filing into nuclear bunkers anyway.

[Bruce Banner]

Project fear gathering pace.

You may freeze to death in your car waiting for a ferry to France if you don't die of a heart attack due to lack of medicine first... .

 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, pig said:

Hopefully those sorts of Leavers fear WW3 is about to happen and currently filing into nuclear bunkers anyway.

One has to be seriously wealthy, or reside in a seriously wealthy country, to have access to a nuclear bunker.

Unless one is a member of the political elite.

[pig]

59 minutes ago, highYield said:

One has to be seriously wealthy, or reside in a seriously wealthy country, to have access to a nuclear bunker.

Unless one is a member of the political elite.

Whats wrong with a Nissen hut ?!     I don't know flippin' snowflakes...

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

Project fear gathering pace.

You may freeze to death in your car waiting for a ferry to France if you don't die of a heart attack due to lack of medicine first... .

 

We could just hijack the Eire > Continent drug laden LGVs. Then reverse engineer their diesel coolers into heaters, warming the families en route to France for their holidays in the empty cargo holds along the M20. Problems solved.

They'd make better fallout shelters than Nissen huts - which will vanish anyways when all the Japanese car makers flee. ?

 

[Itssimple]

Ok.. Why did the powers to be use fear tactics. 

Was it some ancient historical natural default that leaders use when they are fearful themselves.

What is interesting is that they are still using fear, when I do believe it becomes more counterproductive the more it is used.

I wonder how far they will go.

 

[OnionTerror]

3 minutes ago, Itssimple said:

Ok.. Why did the powers to be use fear tactics. 

Was it some ancient historical natural default that leaders use when they are fearful themselves.

What is interesting is that they are still using fear, when I do believe it becomes more counterproductive the more it is used.

I wonder how far they will go.

 

There are knock on effects if/when we become a third country...Its not project fear.. Its the by-product of a 40 year relationship going unchecked..

Edited December 7, 2018 by Dave Beans

[Itssimple]

6 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

There are knock on effects if/when we become a third country...Its not project fear.. Its the by-product of a 40 year relationship going unchecked..

http://www.independent.org/publications/article.asp?id=1510

[OnionTerror]

1 minute ago, Itssimple said:

http://www.independent.org/publications/article.asp?id=1510

...and if they're true?

https://ec.europa.eu/info/brexit-preparedness/brexit-notices-explanation_en

On 29 March 2017, the United Kingdom notified the European Council of its intention to leave the European Union. Unless a ratified withdrawal agreement establishes another date or the European Council, in accordance with Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union and in agreement with the United Kingdom, unanimously decides that the Treaties cease to apply at a later date, all Union primary and secondary law will cease to apply to the United Kingdom from 30 March 2019, 00:00h (CET) ('the withdrawal date'). The United Kingdom will then become a third country. These notices, which aim at preparing citizens and stakeholders for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom, set out the consequences in a range of policy areas

[GrizzlyDave]

5 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Would that mean staying in the CAP, I cannot see that going down well with the Brexiteers.

 

 

 

No.

[GrizzlyDave]

[pig]

2 hours ago, Itssimple said:

Ok.. Why did the powers to be use fear tactics. 

Was it some ancient historical natural default that leaders use when they are fearful themselves.

What is interesting is that they are still using fear, when I do believe it becomes more counterproductive the more it is used.

I wonder how far they will go.

 

They're happy to go all over the place so long as you go along with it,

They'll tell you the NI border is not a problem they'll solve it lickety split.

Then they'll put the fear of god into you and tell you that no we'll be trapped in the backstop solution.... FOREVER !

 

[Sheeple Splinter]

6 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Or maybe you don't understand why the raw new NINO number is not a good way of assessing the proportion of EU v Non EU immigration.   

 

The NINO report data is far from raw, as you well know. 

Quote

…  A NINo is generally required by any overseas national looking to work or claim benefits / tax credits in the UK and the statistics are a byproduct of this administrative process. The NINo statistics cover all adults allocated a NINo for any type of work - including the self-employed and students working part-time – irrespective of the length of stay in the UK (i.e. including short term). Sourced from a 100% administrative dataset, as well as measuring the Jobcentre Plus operational activity to register a NINo, the statistical value of the data lies in the robustness of counts down to individual nationality and for each Local Authority... 

Now IPS is rather different...

 

Why do you think the revised MSQR's have stopped showing EU NINO applications?

e.g.

2018 November

Figure 5: Non-EU work-related long-term immigration trends by data source, UK, year ending June 2008 to year ending June 2018

2016 August

Here's another chart to challenge your narrative:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/760757/nino-registrations-adult-overseas-nationals-september-2018.pdf

[Sheeple Splinter]

6 hours ago, Ah-so said:

The vote was not to leave the EEA. By design, remaining in the EEA was always an option.

Both leave and remain said it wasn't a good option during the campaign, which suggests that it is a good compromise. 

Good point.

[OnionTerror]

10 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Good point.

I think we'll still have to go out with nothing.  Its only then that people will wake the **** up...

I suspect you find the current situation frustrating, just as I do..  Those who want a no deal only think about the following few weeks or months, rather than what follows on for the next few years or decades...They don't consider that vassalage will follow (as we wont have much of a choice) after the fact....

Edited December 8, 2018 by Dave Beans

[Sheeple Splinter]

4 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

I think we'll still have to go out with nothing.  Its only then that people will wake the **** up...

I suspect you find the current situation frustrating, just as I do..

As discussed upthread, the UK politicos/msm woeful grasp of facts is the most frustrating aspect.

I don't think the UK will go hard Brexit; I agree with, Howler & Dorkins' eloquent commentary on the deal and possible subsequent events.

[OnionTerror]

14 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

As discussed upthread, the UK politicos/msm woeful grasp of facts is the most frustrating aspect.

I don't think the UK will go hard Brexit; I agree with, Howler & Dorkins' eloquent commentary on the deal and possible subsequent events.

If "the deal" does miraculously go through, you'll just have the Brexiters chirp on forever and a day.  Mrs May's deal sets two main deadlines - july 2020 then december 2020.  However, a proper bespoke deal with probably take ten years, therefore we are just moving the goal posts for no deal, whist giving more time for business to scarper.  In the withdrawal agreement, the deadline can be moved once, but I can't see it being moved another eight years.  Moreover, at the end of the second deadline, we'd become a third country but still tied to the customs union (a la Turkey).  The worst of all worlds.

Perhaps I'm deeply cynical about the whole thing (and of course probably wrong), but we may we need to rip the plaster off, immediately shut the ultras up and hope we go down the EFTA route once people realise project fear was true.  By then, there would be cross party and cross country support for it..

 

Edited December 8, 2018 by Dave Beans

[NuBrit]

32 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

They don't consider that vassalage will follow (as we wont have much of a choice) after the fact....

Why do people keep repeating this lie about Britain being a vassal state. Our current status as an EU member is certainly not that of a vassal. Our proposed status under the May plan as an even looser "partner" of the EU, is even less that again.

People seem to forget where we came from. Before the UK was a member of the EU, we went from a bankrupt basket case, to a functioning and stable country with the worlds fifth largest economy. Until a few Brexit extremists started using such terms, almost no one would have considered the sovereignty of the country as being impinged. 

[OnionTerror]

14 minutes ago, NuBrit said:

Why do people keep repeating this lie about Britain being a vassal state. Our current status as an EU member is certainly not that of a vassal. Our proposed status under the May plan as an even looser "partner" of the EU, is even less that again.

People seem to forget where we came from. Before the UK was a member of the EU, we went from a bankrupt basket case, to a functioning and stable country with the worlds fifth largest economy. Until a few Brexit extremists started using such terms, almost no one would have considered the sovereignty of the country as being impinged. 

I said after the fact.  We'd have no choice but to sign an "association agreement", which I suspect would look like something very similar to what we have already agreed upon, but there would be a danger that it would become permanent..

Edited December 8, 2018 by Dave Beans

[thecrashingisles]

2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Do you really think what these people care about is immediately leaving NATO and the EU?

[NuBrit]

6 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

I said after the fact.  We'd have no choice but to sign an "association agreement", which I suspect would look like something very similar to what we have already agreed upon, but there would be a danger that it would become permanent..

Yes, that is fair enough. The question I am asking though, is at what stage are we a vassal? I would say that our present situation as an EU member is not that of a vassal, so subsequently any diluted stage of EU membership isn't either. The Brexit extremists on the other hand seem to think that any sort of agreement or cooperation is vassalage. As Boris himself seemed to suggest, even having to be a rule taker on the curvature of a banana is unacceptable. 

We are at the eleventh hour here, yet we still have no concrete proposals from the Brexit side on how our relationship with the EU should work beyond threatening to starve the Irish, again. What do you propose we do? Send gunboats down the Seine and Rhine?

[NuBrit]

3 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Thanks to Jacob Rees Mogg and the Brexit fantasists hollowing out the middle ground, the English translation of this will be coming to us courtesy of Jeremy Corbyn next time out. 

[OnionTerror]

1 minute ago, NuBrit said:

Yes, that is fair enough. The question I am asking though, is at what stage are we a vassal? I would say that our present situation as an EU member is not that of a vassal, so subsequently any diluted stage of EU membership isn't either. The Brexit extremists on the other hand seem to think that any sort of agreement or cooperation is vassalage. As Boris himself seemed to suggest, even having to be a rule taker on the curvature of a banana is unacceptable. 

We are at the eleventh hour here, yet we still have no concrete proposals from the Brexit side on how our relationship with the EU should work beyond threatening to starve the Irish, again. What do you propose we do? Send gunboats down the Seine and Rhine?

It depends if you want a short and perhaps incomplete version, or I could write a long rambling post on it.