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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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9 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

A UK equivalent to CETA could take 5-10 years to negotiate. I don't think Parliament, the EU27 or the UK electorate are willing to wait that long for the UK to leave the transition period. So it would be transition until the end of 2022, leave on WTO terms, take the hit to trade and negotiate a UK-EU FTA as fast as possible. Bumpy, but it could be done, but in my opinion the people should be asked first if they want to go through that as it certainly wasn't what they were told would happen in the runup to the 2016 referendum.

 So the choice is WTO (with CETA a few years later hopefully), EFTA or rejoin.

CETA, South Korea or any other similar FTA is not really any better than WTO; all it does is to remove certain tariffs & quotas and tacks on a few other bits & bobs...The UK would still be a proper third country, involving proper third country border controls.

Edited by Dave Beans

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6 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

CETA, South Korea or any other similar FTA is not really any better than WTO; all it does is to remove certain tariffs & quotas and tacks on a few other bits & bobs...The UK would still be a proper third country, involving proper third country controls.

Fair point. There was a reason the single market needed to be invented.

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2 hours ago, jonb2 said:

I respect both your and Howler's consistency and optimism. Meant in the best way possible - you both give a shit

Well you know Pig and I are on the same road in our worry that there are very some very dark forces behind Brexit.

The current regime are far from benign, things like immigration not being pinned.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/05/sajid-javid-says-freedom-of-movement-ends-deal-or-no-deal

I am extremely worried about the Tories getting in again after Brexit as I think deregulation, privatisation and asset-stripping will go into hyperdrive. I don't think Corbyn is the ticket either, but has to be slightly better than the above.

I think change is a vain hope HY. Until we have built a model village of the Weimar republic here and people have had enough. Good earth to grow Fascism in. Unlike you, I don't expect things to change - our great leaders are chimps.

Reading between the lines of some of your posts I think the best option for you is short lived anarchy, and in all fairness I could well understand why millions of others would feel the same. The victims in the UK today are not those on welfare or homeless, though they are major issues, the real unspoken and non complaining victims in the UK are those earning £20-£35k who are being bled dry as they continue to bail the banks out from 2008 and will continue to so so for the next 25 plus years.

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18 minutes ago, localhero1983 said:

Reading between the lines of some of your posts I think the best option for you is short lived anarchy, and in all fairness I could well understand why millions of others would feel the same. The victims in the UK today are not those on welfare or homeless, though they are major issues, the real unspoken and non complaining victims in the UK are those earning £20-£35k who are being bled dry as they continue to bail the banks out from 2008 and will continue to so so for the next 25 plus years.

Exactly. We keep being told about the growth in GDP,  but most people's living standards aren't really improving - & any real improvements are down to technology - so they feel, rightly or wrongly, they've nothing to lose if the economy stalls.

 

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3 hours ago, jonb2 said:

This is the point Kosmin.

Fundamentally, when is democracy not democracy? An argument to forgive manipulation of the argument nullifies any claim to democracy. 'The vote' is tainted by undelivered promises, dark money and emotion boiling psych-ops.

In my mind, this makes an absolute mockery of the claim it's undemocratic to review people's opinion now they know more of the truth. But the programming of leavers' minds will cry betrayal. So as people say, if leavers lose, they will kick up a fuss and some will get more ukippy

Remember the counter-argument. If we let the manipulators win and confirm there is no penalty, they will ramp up their non-democratic control and prodding of our people - eventually leading to Orwell in 3D.

There is a political and economic cancer afflicting the country. It needs fighting and destroying. I agree that remain is the sane thing to do. But my continued hunch is the best cure to all this shit is a no-deal. Leavers will be naked, will have nowhere to run, it's what they voted for. They will blame others, but I doubt it will stick. Remainers can alleviate their bitterness by saying I told you so.

Eureka moment when I read the cancer word what this argument reminded me of.

A friend of mines dad caught him smoking cigarrettes.

He made him smoke more , one after another, after another...., till he was sick.

It worked - he actually swears by it (although hasn’t done it to his kids !). Maybe, in later years he was saved from cancer - but he wouldn’t have been older than 13 at the time.

I kind of find it at once hilarious, shocking and morally irresolvable.

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3 hours ago, jonb2 said:

I think change is a vain hope HY. Until we have built a model village of the Weimar republic here and people have had enough. Good earth to grow Fascism in. Unlike you, I don't expect things to change - our great leaders are chimps.

highYield's view is wrong imo. I can't think of a stronger signal to our politicians than the last two referendums. Change the voting system? "No thanks, you guys are fine". Brexit? "Yes, it's all the foreigners fault, you guys are fine".

We'll still be voting for the same short term thinkers of red or blue in 5, 10, x years time and I'll still not feel at all represented by my politicians. The only difference is I'll have been stripped of my European rights and representation there.

(Not really, I also have an EU passport so I'm ok)

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3 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

Exactly. We keep being told about the growth in GDP,  but most people's living standards aren't really improving - & any real improvements are down to technology - so they feel, rightly or wrongly, they've nothing to lose if the economy stalls.

 

A greater share of the world wealth is now going to previously under developed countries and the developed world (ie. "west") is becoming more unequal because of this (those at the top are doing incredibly well). I earn what should be a spectacular salary. I feel poor in London. I can only afford a very modest house in an unglamorous area because I didn't have foresight and was born to poor parents. 

Brexit won't help, has removed rights from many people who treasured them, and will probably make things worse overall.

But people needed someone to blame and it wasn't going to be our own, so the foreigners got it. Same as it ever was. Same as it every was.

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1 hour ago, highYield said:

Great point. Honesty & knowledge is evidently punished in our current system.

On a tangent, how many layers of pillocal incompetence are there?

******

1. European Court of Justice

******

2. European Central Bank

******

3. European Parliament 

******

4.  European Council

******

5. Council of the European Union

******

6. European Commission

******

7. Saxe Coberg Gothe Family

******

8. UK Court of Appeal 

******

9. House of Lords

******

10. House of Commons

******

11. Civil Service (old boy network)

******

12. Bank of England ('Unrestricted immigration will ensure that the UK has First Mover Advantage')

******

13. Lord Mayor of London/Manchester/Other cities (Boris Bikes), Combined Authorities elsewhere

******

14. Elected Police and Crime Commissioners 

******

15. Principle Councils (county councils, non-metropolitan county councils)

******

16. Borough councils, maybe municipal councils

******

17. Parish Councils

******

Have you ever analysed the management structure of a multi-national such as Apple or one of the major car manufacturers such as VW ? I imagine that the management structures are multi-purposed, sales, legal, production etc and are varied but integrated into some coherent whole. Add to that their corporate governance as well. All these various structures serve an end purpose in producing a top class product that is deliver to millions of consumers.

Now the EU is a political and economic entity that is responsible for the welfare, health and economic well being of the five hundred or so million people that make it up. Does it not follow that the various poltical, organisational and legal structures might be complex?

It's not really about that is it?

When I get into my car in the morning I do not need to know about the finer points, as to the workings of the internal combustion engine. What I need to know is that when I turn the ignition key it fires into life and does the job I want it to do.

It's Karl Marx's problem of ailenation revisted, if ever it went away. Many people  feel crushed by the system and they have said no. Now it's up to the politicians to find a solution.

 

Edited by grasshopper

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4 hours ago, jonb2 said:

This is the point Kosmin.

Fundamentally, when is democracy not democracy? An argument to forgive manipulation of the argument nullifies any claim to democracy. 'The vote' is tainted by undelivered promises, dark money and emotion boiling psych-ops.

In my mind, this makes an absolute mockery of the claim it's undemocratic to review people's opinion now they know more of the truth. But the programming of leavers' minds will cry betrayal. So as people say, if leavers lose, they will kick up a fuss and some will get more ukippy

Remember the counter-argument. If we let the manipulators win and confirm there is no penalty, they will ramp up their non-democratic control and prodding of our people - eventually leading to Orwell in 3D.

There is a political and economic cancer afflicting the country. It needs fighting and destroying. I agree that remain is the sane thing to do. But my continued hunch is the best cure to all this shit is a no-deal. Leavers will be naked, will have nowhere to run, it's what they voted for. They will blame others, but I doubt it will stick. Remainers can alleviate their bitterness by saying I told you so.

Practices of which the remaln faction was entirely innocent of course 😩

You really believe remain doesn't contain some of the biggest manipulators in the country? That the remain faction is the biggest contributor to the economic & political cancer afflicting the country?

Since they're the ones who run the status quo, the ones who've dragged us deeper & deeper into the EU quagmire (cheap labour anyone?) how does that even work?

 

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9 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

Exactly. We keep being told about the growth in GDP,  but most people's living standards aren't really improving - & any real improvements are down to technology - so they feel, rightly or wrongly, they've nothing to lose if the economy stalls.

 

I still find it hard to accept and even believe that the lowest earners in the UK are paying for what was one of the UK's biggest financial crimes in history and where property prices are being kept artificially high in order to justify the crazy money loaned to buy them. "We are all in this together"remember, can anyone find me a Times Rich list where the richest in our society became poorer just one year during the austerity years.

I just wish we as a country would grow a pair like the French

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2 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

Practices of which the remaln faction was entirely innocent of course 😩

You really believe remain doesn't contain some of the biggest manipulators in the country? That the remain faction is the biggest contributor to the economic & political cancer afflicting the country?

Since they're the ones who run the status quo, the ones who've dragged us deeper & deeper into the EU quagmire (cheap labour anyone?) how does that even work?

 

What is "remaln faction"?

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10 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

A greater share of the world wealth is now going to previously under developed countries and the developed world (ie. "west") is becoming more unequal because of this (those at the top are doing incredibly well). I earn what should be a spectacular salary. I feel poor in London. I can only afford a very modest house in an unglamorous area because I didn't have foresight and was born to poor parents. 

Brexit won't help, has removed rights from many people who treasured them, and will probably make things worse overall.

But people needed someone to blame and it wasn't going to be our own, so the foreigners got it. Same as it ever was. Same as it every was.

What rights are those?

Anyway

 

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35 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

Exactly. We keep being told about the growth in GDP,  but most people's living standards aren't really improving - & any real improvements are down to technology - so they feel, rightly or wrongly, they've nothing to lose if the economy stalls.

 

Wrongly. Bonfire of our rights to enrich the elite that is what will happen. I guarantee it.

If it wasn't for the utter transparency of the real goal I might have actually supported brexit. Giving the EU a bloody nose with a view to getting their house in order. As it is, that has nothing to do with it. Follow the money.

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24 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

Wrongly. Bonfire of our rights to enrich the elite that is what will happen. I guarantee it.

If it wasn't for the utter transparency of the real goal I might have actually supported brexit. Giving the EU a bloody nose with a view to getting their house in order. As it is, that has nothing to do with it. Follow the money.

They have been after the tasty flesh of the NHS for decades. They might finally get their prey. 

https://youtu.be/p7M6vvRuSKw

Edited by grasshopper

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14 hours ago, Locke said:

ORANGE MAN BAD

60 years ago, the planet was going to show that in 10-20 years

By di Caprio, who loves to fly his polluting private jet around the world to proselytise to plebs about how their refrigerator is murdering seal cubs.

Calm down Thanos.

Watch “before the flood”

Thanos only kills at random, maybe we need a purge night.. 😂

Dont think MP’s would pass one though know how much the public dislike them.. 💩🔨😂

Im not as nasty as you make out,

.

.

I really like animals.. 

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3 hours ago, grasshopper said:

Yep. A referendum got us into this pickle and it is unlikely that a referendum can extricate us. Let's hope for a general election where the people are asked to vote on the issues that may be most  important to them. Cost of housing, health care provision, employment and associated employment rights, the environment, welfare etc.

The parties can at the same time outline how they envisage their particular proposed relationships with the EU plays a role in this vision. Then let the people decide. Throw the dice, let them land as they will. And consign to dust this wretched and divisive referendum.

:blink: 

2015GE Cameron promised an EU referendum... 2016 EU referendum... 2017GE … 85% vote share for Brexit supporting parties … LibDems, who campaigned with a second referendum ticket to capture the young and highly educated voters, received … a staggering 7.5%.

election-results-963656.jpg

 

Let's face it, the UK voter has been exposed to 30 months of Remain campaigning whilst the EU has continued to fail in tackling its existential crises; let alone its economic malaise, corruption, organised crime, racism/xenophobia etc.

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3 hours ago, grasshopper said:

Have you ever analysed the management structure of a multi-national such as Apple or one of the major car manufacturers such as VW ? I imagine that the management structures are multi-purposed, sales, legal, production etc and are varied but integrated into some coherent whole. Add to that their corporate governance as well. All these various structures serve an end purpose in producing a top class product that is deliver to millions of consumers.

Now the EU is a political and economic entity that is responsible for the welfare, health and economic well being of the five hundred or so million people that make it up. Does it not follow that the various poltical, organisational and legal structures might be complex?

It's not really about that is it?

When I get into my car in the morning I do not need to know about the finer points, as to the workings of the internal combustion engine. What I need to know is that when I turn the ignition key it fires into life and does the job I want it to do.

It's Karl Marx's problem of ailenation revisted, if ever it went away. Many people  feel crushed by the system and they have said no. Now it's up to the politicians to find a solution. 

 

Good post.

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Norway no way!

Gruniad, ref only...

A member of the parliament’s economic affairs committee, she said “it is not in my country’s interests to have the UK aboard, and I cannot see how possibly an EEA/Efta agreement could be in the interests of the UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/07/norwegian-politicians-reject-uks-norway-plus-brexit-plan

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1 hour ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Odds have gone out to 11:2 that the deal will pass with MPs in 2018.

make of that what you will...

Still a chance your pony will come in at a second vote...but I think MPs are still in the rage/despair/we demand better phase.

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11 hours ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

Exactly. We keep being told about the growth in GDP,  but most people's living standards aren't really improving - & any real improvements are down to technology - so they feel, rightly or wrongly, they've nothing to lose if the economy stalls.

 

They will find out what they have to lose if we crash out.

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44 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Still a chance your pony will come in at a second vote...but I think MPs are still in the rage/despair/we demand better phase.

There are so many variables and trade agreements can not be negotiated until after we "leave", so an emotional response may be just as correct as a seemingly pragmatic one.

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  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   212 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


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