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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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51 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Drg3OzNX0AAcfmM.jpg

Sounds like TMs no deal plan discussed here would break the GFA...

while a substantial section of the people in Northern Ireland share the legitimate wish of a majority of the people of the island of Ireland for a united Ireland, the present wish of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland, freely exercised and legitimate, is to maintain the Union and accordingly, that Northern Ireland’s status as part of the United Kingdom reflects and relies upon that wish; and that it would be wrong to make any change in the status of Northern Ireland save with the consent of a majority of its people

Edited by GrizzlyDave

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Brexit voters shift towards second EU referendum says new poll

EAST LANCASHIRE residents, who voted overwhelmingly for Brexit in 2016, now back a second referendum on the final deal.

The research says in Blackburn shows the 55.6 per cent would vote to stay in the EU if the referendum was re-run.

The figures for Burnley (two years ago 66.6 per cent to 33.4 for Brexit) were 58.9 per cent in favour of a second referendum.

In Hyndburn (which voted for Brexit by 65.8 per cent to 34.2) 56.5 per cent supported a new referendum. The constituency remained pro-Brexit by 54.4 per cent to 45.6.

Ribble Valley, represented by leading Brexiteer Tory Nigel Evans, (originally 58.7 per cent to 41.3 pro leave) now saw 52.4 per cent back a 'People's Vote'.

Those backing a new vote in Pendle (in 2016 63.2 per cent to 36.8 pro-Brexit) was 54.4 per cent. Its voters remain 54.4 per cent in favour of quitting.

In Rossendale and Darwen (58.9 per cent to 41.1 for Brexit), 54.6 per cent backed a second referendum. 51.8 per cent remain pro-Brexit.

lancashiretelegraph

 

The same Brexit pattern is repeated across the  whole UK.

The UK's changing democracy presents a uniquely democratic perspective on all aspects of UK politics.

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44 minutes ago, rollover said:

 

The same Brexit pattern is repeated across the  whole UK.

The UK's changing democracy presents a uniquely democratic perspective on all aspects of UK politics.

Some interesting language in that article - not partisan at all!!!

Its voters remain 54.4 per cent in favour of quitting.

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14 hours ago, jonb2 said:

well, I have other things to do than answer your questions.

Anyway

1) We're in the EU already and asset stripping is going on. How exactly will remaining in the EU change that? You don't think that goes on everywhere in the EU? 

2) I'd rather have 650 idiotic MPs that the country as a whole can change rather than 650 idiotic MPs + 750 idiotic MEPs (of which we can change only 70 or so) + idiotic unelected officials who actually make the rules. Which is more democratic for the UK do you think?

3) Have you lived elsewhere in the EU? I have, and don't see that the country has had much benefit from the EU, except new roads and parks. Unemployment is sky high, jobs regularly have 1000+ applicants, even part-time basic production line work, poverty far worse than the UK and openly visible, rich estates of detached houses with many derelict properties. Office hours are often 8.30am-6.30pm and pay E1000-1200 a month (makes a mockery of your pay rise graph), want to work those? Actually you won't and never will, you just won't be able get the job, better teach English then like the other Brits, or buy a bar.

4) I plan to move to EU after Brexit is done. It'll be easier for me than it is now 🙂

Edited by yodigo

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14 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

If this is true - then a vote to remain would change zero.

At least with leaving our socioeconomic and political outlook is placed under a magnifying glass and may actually result in change for the better.

Why vote for more of the same!

Exactly.  Voting remain simply rubber-stamps what they've been up to. 

It tells them they've got away with it, and they can start the next stage.

A second referendum Remain vote, with no significant concessions,  would be a demonstration to the whole world that resistance is futile.

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1 hour ago, yodigo said:

well, I have other things to do than answer your questions.

Anyway

1) We're in the EU already and asset stripping is going on. How exactly will remaining in the EU change that? You don't think that goes on everywhere in the EU? 

2) I'd rather have 650 idiotic MPs that the country as a whole can change rather than 650 idiotic MPs + 750 idiotic MEPs (of which we can change only 70 or so) + idiotic unelected officials who actually make the rules. Which is more democratic for the UK do you think?

3) Have you lived elsewhere in the EU? I have, and don't see that the country has had much benefit from the EU, except new roads and parks. Unemployment is sky high, jobs regularly have 1000+ applicants, even part-time basic production line work, poverty far worse than the UK and openly visible, rich estates of detached houses with many derelict properties. Office hours are often 8.30am-6.30pm and pay E1000-1200 a month (makes a mockery of your pay rise graph), want to work those? Actually you won't and never will, you just won't be able get the job, better teach English then like the other Brits, or buy a bar.

4) I plan to move to EU after Brexit is done. It'll be easier for me than it is now 🙂

These are fair points yodigo.

But as i pointed out. things are worse here and getting worse. I think it is our government which has been in sharp decline compared to most European countries. I don't think our system is fit for purpose.

1. On asset stripping and general financial bad behaviour, we've had a lot more valuable things sold off. Companies, property, trains and even fecking utilities. You say it's always gone on. It has since Thatcher decided it was good policy to sell the family silver in exchange for votes - it's carried on since. PFI anyone? Asking the Chinese to help provide our nuclear energy.

On tax, there is a deadline for tax dodgers to avoid, January 2019.

https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/business/company-tax/anti-tax-avoidance-package/anti-tax-avoidance-directive_en

My point is why are things so bad here? With Brexit endangering the EU trading relationship and other things will cost us 100s of billions. I do remember seeing the social costs of the 70s and 80s and I can assure you it was very, very bleak for many.

2. You will only get results by changing the system here. Westminster no longer works, it's broken. Brexit will put the final nail into the coffin here. It's simply a ruse, a con, a scam and contributes nothing to the common man except less jobs, more uncertainty and an even crappier life.

3. I have been to several countries that have 'come up' - Czech Republic, Poland and eastern Germany. I also saw the poverty under communism in the 70s by contrast - I can see the improvements. But you seem to be talking about the southern countries?

4. Why?

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Maybe a backstop is positioned for outer space.... ;)

Its all balls, if Brexit happens, then it shall be an epic of epic crashes, from fairy land to actual who can afford to live, without the credit machine overdrive 🤣

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16 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

If this is true - then a vote to remain would change zero.

At least with leaving our socioeconomic and political outlook is placed under a magnifying glass and may actually result in change for the better.

Why vote for more of the same!

"Our socioeconomic and political outlook is placed under a magnifying glass" is basically the opposite of what is actually happening. The UK's domestic agenda is being ignored by the government, civil service and the media because they are all obsessed with the Brexit drama.

Brexit is a huge waste of time, mental effort and political capital.

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14 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

"Our socioeconomic and political outlook is placed under a magnifying glass" is basically the opposite of what is actually happening. The UK's domestic agenda is being ignored by the government, civil service and the media because they are all obsessed with the Brexit drama.

Brexit is a huge waste of time, mental effort and political capital.

Perhaps. I do hear this argument but I’m not convinced by it. I think we need to go through to actual Brexit; then actual governance will have to happen. keeping things the same won’t change feck all.

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19 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

This is about laws. Who sets them who administers them, who we are accountable to and who are accountable to us.

3073690570.jpg

Brexit is founded on building resentment over freedom of movement. No resentment, no Brexit.

Putting Borg and WW2 memes aside if you are more or less happy with the four freedoms, then unlike many Brexiters you would be in a good position for at least a non-cr4p deal with the EU. At least I think thats the case - I did find your view on open/closed/four freedom borders a little contradictory. But to be fair unexpected - I give you that !

Also as I understand it you are happy to underpin the relationship with the EU with regulation. And in view of the pickle we are in Tony Bens questions seem to have been answered satisfactorily

Unlike Brexit itself of course.

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54 minutes ago, pig said:

Brexit is founded on building resentment over freedom of movement.

Brexit is founded on misdirection, deception and ignorance.

It's been played well by some real shady folk.

Gaslighting 101.

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1 hour ago, cashinmattress said:

It's been played well by some real shady folk.

Despite their utter incompetence/best efforts we grew three times faster than the Eurozone over the summer...from Gruniad, ref only...

  • US: +0.9% quarterly growth in Q3
  • UK: +0.6% quarterly growth
  • France: +0.4% quarterly growth
  • Eurozone: +0.2%
  • Italy: Stagnation
  • Canada: 0.2% growth in July, and 0.1% in August

Yeah, I know there's weakness in Aug/Sep and future forecast but I'm talking about what's happened, that 0.6% is real. Nothing short of heroic spending by the plucky Brit consumer. Germany stats out next Wednesday, could well be same as Italy.

Why is the Eurozone doing worse than us over die Sommer? Why aren't they booming and why is Mario still printing money?

Regards current stakes on the rumoured deal, both DUP and ERG have come out today to say they'll be voting against it. Can't see Labour abstaining, so May's plan bound to fail at first stage. Panic stations. Haven't heard any mention of the Political Declaration lately.

If I was running a business in the UK I'd be getting pretty fed up with all this.

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May has managed to craft a deal that is so awful, she might force us to try another vote.

Hard to know if it could have been any other way. The divisions within the UK are so toxic and so destructive to any initiative that might save us, I doubt it.

But I also have no confidence that a 2nd ref will make things better.

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Sadly I can see another vote happening, mostly because a deal will be impossible to get through parliament.

I can't really believe the Irish boarder is such an issue, there must be more to it, I suspect its various factions trying to get their political ideals.

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8 minutes ago, thehowler said:

May has managed to craft a deal that is so awful, she might force us to try another vote.

Hard to know if it could have been any other way. The divisions within the UK are so toxic and so destructive to any initiative that might save us, I doubt it.

But I also have no confidence that a 2nd ref will make things better.

There is also the suspicion things have been manipulated to end up this way. 

Recall that she went out of her way to lose votes at the last GE.

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On ‎29‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 09:41, pig said:

How curious - and theres even a link lol! Have you read it ?

I guess this is what you see as " 'informed' 'debate' " ?

:lol:

Perhaps we could debate your definition of,  'informed' 'debate" (sic)?

Meanwhile, can you answer my longstanding post which challenged your narratives?

 

On ‎30‎/‎04‎/‎2018 at 15:09, Sheeple Splinter said:

1. Sigh. Still trying to re-write the definitions of populism.

Which populist parties in Europe do you contend are undemocratic?

Is the current Remain campaign populist?

2. I can see you're sensitive. It didn't backfire and you don't have to go far to see the EU is at Breaking Point.

3. It would appear calculating a % was too much for you. Do you have any links for the current level of overt racism?

4. 😲 Why do you keep referring to these people as "brown people". You are at best showing complete ignorance of race classifications or, worse, latent racism.  AFAICT, you never answered this question:

5. They have already been accused of being institutionally racist. Further examples here:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/28/hostile-environment-the-hardline-home-office-policy-tearing-families-apart

6. Belgian system or similar would be better. WRT your narrative on populism driving immigration/visa control policies of the early ConDem coalition what do you deduce from this polling chart?

image.png.f1bbf664e0a904ccc04c71434625faf1.png

 

 

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45 minutes ago, thehowler said:

May has managed to craft a deal that is so awful, she might force us to try another vote.

Hard to know if it could have been any other way. The divisions within the UK are so toxic and so destructive to any initiative that might save us, I doubt it.

But I also have no confidence that a 2nd ref will make things better.

Probably the only other way would have been EFTA.

I think if the EFTA countries had said to us - join us, it will be better with you, and we can evolve it into something even better with your help...

But they haven’t come across as very keen on that.

Now we go all in on hard brexit with no safe word.

Edited by GrizzlyDave

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Actually, I'll say it , brexit won't happen because May doesn't really want it to.

What happens to the Irish boarder in a no deal ?

 

Madly, Corbyn could be the next prime minister.

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27 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Another Johnson has just quit the govt...going to campaign for another ref.

https://www.itv.com/news/2018-11-09/jo-johnson-quits-as-transport-minister-over-direction-of-brexit-negotiations/

Brexit bus is properly heading to its resting place now. It's come off the roundabout its been on and headed for the knackers yard. Expect more chaos and unexpected things daily. By the time the journey comes to an end it won't just be wheel less it will have trees growing through it.

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31 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Despite their utter incompetence/best efforts we grew three times faster than the Eurozone over the summer...from Gruniad, ref only...

  • US: +0.9% quarterly growth in Q3
  • UK: +0.6% quarterly growth
  • France: +0.4% quarterly growth
  • Eurozone: +0.2%
  • Italy: Stagnation
  • Canada: 0.2% growth in July, and 0.1% in August

Yeah, I know there's weakness in Aug/Sep and future forecast but I'm talking about what's happened, that 0.6% is real. Nothing short of heroic spending by the plucky Brit consumer. Germany stats out next Wednesday, could well be same as Italy.

Why is the Eurozone doing worse than us over die Sommer? Why aren't they booming and why is Mario still printing money?

Regards current stakes on the rumoured deal, both DUP and ERG have come out today to say they'll be voting against it. Can't see Labour abstaining, so May's plan bound to fail at first stage. Panic stations. Haven't heard any mention of the Political Declaration lately.

If I was running a business in the UK I'd be getting pretty fed up with all this.

All topics for the People's Vote perhaps...

From BI:

 

euro gdp nordea

http://uk.businessinsider.com/europe-gdp-is-faltering-2018-11?r=US&IR=T

 

I was surprised at the latest EU inflation figures... since 2016:

File:Euro area annual inflation and its main components (%), January 2008-October 2018-estimated.png

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=File:Euro_area_annual_inflation_and_its_main_components_(%),_January_2008-October_2018-estimated.png

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22 hours ago, jonb2 said:

You did not answer my questions. Doubt you can. Still I would like to know why we are so much worse than our counterparts in the EU. ...

UK has worst economic forecast in Europe

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-uk-economy-eu-european-commission-autumn-forecasts-gdp-a8623716.html

… 

But you keep on being a good Tory. Don't forget to doff your cap to your betters.

20160727_ma_wages.jpg

 

Latest Statista wage data...

Infographic: Where wages are shrinking in the EU | Statista

 

Have to wait and see what effect recent wage increases will have.

 

OECD's current forecast for EU countries... UK is red:

image.png.4e48cd037bd4bf59b3195fb32cd8e733.png

https://data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-long-term-forecast.htm#indicator-chart

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1 hour ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Probably the only other way would have been EFTA.

I think if the EFTA countries had said to us - join us, it will be better with you, and we can evolve it into something even better with your help...

But they haven’t come across as very keen on that.

Now we go all in on hard brexit with no safe word.

https://www.politico.eu/article/icelandic-foreign-minister-to-uk-please-join-efta/

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-britain-join-european-economic-area-single-market-norway-eea-a8350681.html

However Norway are a little bit stand-offish about it.  They see it, that if the UK joined EFTA, we would get what we wanted in the future, sod off, then sod the rest of EFTA.. If we going to go down that route, we can't be a reluctant member, where we are willing to help other EFTA members; we have to be enthusiastic about it, which we aren't.

Edited by Dave Beans

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