Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
GreenDevil

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

Recommended Posts

18 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Seems Putin is cleaning things up in Moscow....

Another intelligence chief mysteriously gets run over and is refused medical help at the scene....

Did he messed up Brexit?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jonb2 said:

Oh no, not this again.

How much of what you think is the EU's fault in this post is going to miraculously improve after Brexit? How and why?

Blame anybody except the Tories. Brilliant. They've convinced you.

House prices and rents will fall and wages will be pushed up if there are less people coming here to live? Again I am keeping it OT just to play devils advocate if you like, I think rising rates are going to sink the housing market anyway, Brexit is just a sideshow, but it could hasten the demise of the EU which would lead to real bond market carnage/volatility and interest rate spikes. My main/only interest is seeing the embarrassment that is the credit fuelled property bubble blow up, anything else is not really going to interest me too much although I am open to investment ideas and strategies, and that is why I have not bothered much with this thread which has frankly just become a slagging match between a handful of posters anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, dances with sheeple said:

House prices and rents will fall and wages will be pushed up if there are less people coming here to live? Again I am keeping it OT just to play devils advocate if you like, I think rising rates are going to sink the housing market anyway, Brexit is just a sideshow, but it could hasten the demise of the EU which would lead to real bond market carnage/volatility and interest rate spikes. My main/only interest is seeing the embarrassment that is the credit fuelled property bubble blow up, anything else is not really going to interest me too much although I am open to investment ideas and strategies, and that is why I have not bothered much with this thread which has frankly just become a slagging match between a handful of posters anyway.

I've said this for so long; Immigration will not stop, it will continue at the same levels, just from different places.

House prices will not fall significantly, as they will be propped up, they always will be, unless someone comes in and makes noise they will not.

What will happen next is "A helping hand" for the young.

Like spinning plates, they'll be kept spinning.  There is no logical sense to our housing market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

I've said this for so long; Immigration will not stop, it will continue at the same levels, just from different places.

House prices will not fall significantly, as they will be propped up, they always will be, unless someone comes in and makes noise they will not.

What will happen next is "A helping hand" for the young.

Like spinning plates, they'll be kept spinning.  There is no logical sense to our housing market.

There is, it runs on cheap credit, which is disappearing, and it runs on sentiment, which is turning negative towards property, at these prices anyway. The UK PTB can`t prop the market with the US raising rates, and the Tories won`t survive politically if the young and priced out can`t get a house at a decent price. All very logical (predicting the timing is the difficult bit) and all predicted on here years ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In all fairness, I've been around and about this site for many years, and I've not seen a crash yet, despite wanting one.  I've bought and sold many houses in my time here and whilst I'd love it to happen, if anything now for my kids, I don't think it's coming.

The tories are out for generations.  I think we'll not see the tories in this guise again; Brexit will wipe them out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, HairyOb1 said:

In all fairness, I've been around and about this site for many years, and I've not seen a crash yet, despite wanting one.  I've bought and sold many houses in my time here and whilst I'd love it to happen, if anything now for my kids, I don't think it's coming.

The tories are out for generations.  I think we'll not see the tories in this guise again; Brexit will wipe them out.

With that I agree with you Hairy.  They are damaged goods.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In other news, not related, but interesting, Catalonia has voted to end the Monarchy in Spain.

Would like a bit of that action here....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Haven’t read it.

You should it's the most informed and considered piece I have seen to date. It completely exposes to the utter incompetence and fantasy thinking of our "leaders", on both sides of the debate, and explains convincingly where we are likely to end up. 

I can see it would be quite a challenging read for the likes of High Yield and kzb as it forensically demolishes many of their beliefs about how the UK will benefit from leaving in a way I suspect they would find hard to argue against. 

Edit - Newsnight is reporting that the transition/backstop will have no end date as May knows any date will be unacceptable to the EU. Rogers prediction for the end point was

Quote

 we are in a long term purgatory transition with the Europeans having taken back control, and what was the point of that? 

    

Edited by Confusion of VIs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

2 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

It's breathtaking that every single thing the tories have ******ed us over, is being blamed on the EU.  Then, and this is the mental part for me, they expect it to change, by leaving the EU and being under the Tories some more.

 

48 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

The tories are out for generations.  I think we'll not see the tories in this guise again; Brexit will wipe them out.

How are the Tories going to fall apart if people are not going to blame them for the current and forthcoming mess? As I read it, your posts contradict each other.

3500.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=forma

 

Prime Minister Arlene Foster with one of her junior ministers today, discussing the 'blood red' lines.

40 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

In other news, not related, but interesting, Catalonia has voted to end the Monarchy in Spain. 

I read that as Caledonia. :huh:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said:

How are the Tories going to fall apart if people are not going to blame them for the current and forthcoming mess? As I read it, your posts contradict each other.

3500.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=forma

 

Prime Minister Arlene Foster with one of her junior ministers today, discussing the 'blood red' lines.

I read that as Caledonia. :huh:

I am saying, as it stands, the EU are being blamed for everything the Tories are doing, yet the status quo isn to dump the EU and continue with the Tories - I am trying explain brexit logic.  That's how it appears today, to the brexiteer.

However, what I think will happen in the coming years, is that they cease to be; the young will not vote for such a toxic party and if Brexit happens, and it's the shit show we think it will be, there's nothing they can do other than disintegrate.

There\'s also the chance they'll self implode anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

I am saying, as it stands, the EU are being blamed for everything the Tories are doing, yet the status quo isn to dump the EU and continue with the Tories - I am trying explain brexit logic.  That's how it appears today, to the brexiteer.

However, what I think will happen in the coming years, is that they cease to be; the young will not vote for such a toxic party and if Brexit happens, and it's the shit show we think it will be, there's nothing they can do other than disintegrate.

There\'s also the chance they'll self implode anyway.

I agree with a lot of what you write, but not on this one.

Do you remember after the fiscal crisis of 2008 and Mervyn King saying 'Whoever gets elected will subsequently be out of office for a generation'? Didn't happen then (regrettably) and IMHO it won't happen now.

This isn't France where, when things have gone awry, they're dealt with, and they proceed with a clean slate. Nope the dire two party sh_te will persist and outlive you and me. Same as it ever was.......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said:

I agree with a lot of what you write, but not on this one.

Do you remember after the fiscal crisis of 2008 and Mervyn King saying 'Whoever gets elected will subsequently be out of office for a generation'? Didn't happen then (regrettably) and IMHO it won't happen now.

This isn't France where, when things have gone awry, they're dealt with, and they proceed with a clean slate. Nope the dire two party sh_te will persist and outlive you and me. Same as it ever was.......

Well it's been 8 years and a new leader with new ideas, but I do see what you're saying.

However, I'm heavily involved in my local schools, governor at one, PTA committee of another.  We get some contact with the student body, especially the lower and upper 6th.  We had our local MP in, Con and the previous MP in, LibDem.  The con was met with outright hostility; You may remember him in the news for telling a Scottish girl to ****** off back home if she wanted independence - She was 16 and asked a genuine question.  The younger generation do not, absolutely do not, support the Tories, and they're being fed the narrative that they are not the party for the young, through school, through a lot of parents and through MSM.  I am going on the march next week with my eldest who wanted to come, who, like her friends, are involved now politically.  Maybe the message the young are not voting enough is getting through; we pile the message in through all 3 schools and urge them to vote.  It helps that most teachers are a little left wing too, and it doesn't hurt for them to drop a note in lessons once in while about austerity, its cause, brexit, its cause and everything.

I genuinely think this party is not supported enough by folk under 40, for them to make a difference.  And if they drop a lot of older age benefits, the older people will vote with their feet, especially given what Corbyn is promising.

So, it's ok to disagree, but I think if brexit doesn't permanently split the tories, they're unelectable.  With May now pleading for cross bench support, she's going against every Conservative tenet and she, and them, will never be forgiven.  Add in the fact we're heading for BRINO, and whatever is left of the right wing of the party, will go UKIP in 2020, or before.

Edited by HairyOb1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice to have some proper discussions on here without being told I need spanking and rimming (I mean, wtaf?).  I guess they're on the naughty step.

Moving on. How is May going to get past:
1. Throwing DUP under the bus, which seems apparent
2. Being forgiven for asking for Labour support, given how much she and the party, and faithful, have plastered the narrative Labour is evil everywhere.
3. Absolutely no one in her party, or seemingly any party, agreeing with her various offers of a deal?

Where are we headed?  Do you think within a month we could have a VONC in May?  Will a defeat for the budget mean that?  Would May be mad enough to call everyone's bluff and offer a GE this close to brexit?

I genuinely do not know what is going to happen week by week, and I am intrigued.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

.  Add in the fact we're heading for BRINO, and whatever is left of the right wing of the party, will go UKIP in 2020, or before.

Very Possibly.

What also might be worth noting is how quick Bozo got his twitters out about being an EU colony. The chancer is smart enough to read the runes, and trying to get his tuppence worth in.

Anyway ....  enough for one day...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎06‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 06:51, spyguy said:

Are ther many 'Irish' people holidaying in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania ...

Thisis a case of poor bio security and people travelling from one end of europe to another, spreading contagious diseases.

Certainly one of the downsides of FoM and no internal borders. 

Quote

… Authorities are not yet sure how African swine fever jumped thousands of kilometers west, despite serious containment measures...

 

Quote

… Belgium’s food-safety agency AFSCA suggested Thursday that travelers coming from an infected zone in the east could have unwittingly transported the disease with them. The idea is that a ham sandwich discarded by the roadside, for example, could have been eaten by a boar. The virus can also be carried on objects, such as boots...

https://www.politico.eu/article/african-swine-fever-all-you-need-to-know-belgium-hemorrhagic-fever/

At least the Belgians reported it within 2 days, much quicker than the egg fiasco:

Quote

… 

Issue[edit]

Chicken eggs were found to contain fipronil and distributed to 15 European Union countries, Switzerland, and Hong Kong.[1][2] Approximately 700,000 eggs are thought to have reached shelves in the UK alone.[3] Fipronil contaminated eggs may have been sold for a long time prior to the discovery of high levels.[4] Fipronil was used in a remedy to destroy the poultry mite.[5]

Initial actions[edit]

Authorities in the Netherlands were alerted by an anonymous source in November 2016 that fipronil was being used in poultry farms, but failed to communicate the findings.[6][7] In July/August 2017 millions of chicken eggs were blocked from sale or withdrawn from the market in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and France after elevated levels of fipronil were discovered by the Dutch food and product safety board.[4] About 180 Dutch farms were temporarily shut down.[4] In early August, Aldi reported removing all eggs for sale in their German stores as a precaution.[8]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Fipronil_eggs_contamination

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎09‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 20:55, pig said:

Who me ? I thought you were informing us ! Well I thought you did a good job on the spike in overt racism anyway !

Q3 well not really - do you genuinely believe it would further sensible debate ?

Look, there are two races, the white straight male working class BrexiTrump supporting American Brit and the other vampire race trying to take from us. Obviously. Why complicate things with 10 page long cut and paste posts on 'race classificatio'n and all that toss ?

Of course, but then it would expose your false narratives, just like your two race effort above.

There would be no need to paste this...

 

On ‎30‎/‎04‎/‎2018 at 15:09, Sheeple Splinter said:

1. Sigh. Still trying to re-write the definitions of populism.

Which populist parties in Europe do you contend are undemocratic?

Is the current Remain campaign populist?

2. I can see you're sensitive. It didn't backfire and you don't have to go far to see the EU is at Breaking Point.

3. It would appear calculating a % was too much for you. Do you have any links for the current level of overt racism?

4. 😲 Why do you keep referring to these people as "brown people". You are at best showing complete ignorance of race classifications or, worse, latent racism.  AFAICT, you never answered this question:

5. They have already been accused of being institutionally racist. Further examples here:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/28/hostile-environment-the-hardline-home-office-policy-tearing-families-apart

6. Belgian system or similar would be better. WRT your narrative on populism driving immigration/visa control policies of the early ConDem coalition what do you deduce from this polling chart?

image.png.f1bbf664e0a904ccc04c71434625faf1.png

 

… if you could answer the questions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

1. I cannot even recall what the assertion was but assume I was being guided by all the published reports

2. No the OBR is independent of Osborne. 

As to your question, why should I know and why do you think it is relevant?  As I am sure I said earlier, the post referendum changes were assessed against earlier forecasts not just the headline growth rate. It is the deviation from the previously assumed growth rate when compared with other countries deviation from their previously assumed growth rates, after allowing for non Brexit related influencing factors not catered for in those forecasts,  that is the basis for the assessment that the vote itself caused the rapid slowdown in UK growth now amounting to around 2.5% of lost GDP.

3. Looking at the latest reports from the OBR, et al the loss to the economy is now between 4 and 5 times the promised Brexit dividend. Even Minford has admitted the economy has taken a, for him, surprisingly large hit.  I think you should either give up on this or write a learned paper explaining exactly why everyone else has got it so wrong. 

 

1. Without question it would appear. :)

2. Well, yes he moved on sometime ago which is why I used similar.

Rapid slowdown?

France GDP Annual Growth Rate

3. I'm just pointing out the flaws in articles/graphs & assertions, some repeated across the MSM e.g. UK top to bottom of G7.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

No offence but I find these stories tedious and dull. Having spent my adult life exposed to the biggest housing bubble in history - I have little sympathy. Your generation (sorry but it’s true) have stripped this country bare like locusts. There’s nothing left. So sorry, I mean no offence, but from my perspective it looks like you had it gravy.

I agree with you. My generation have had it better than the what my kids are enduring. But we should all ask ourselves why. I am not the person in charge of policy, which since the 80s has emphasised the finance business above all else.

Yet, by voting Brexit, you have set yourself a dichotomy. You say sovereignty is more important than money. So you will have to continue to live in a world where life is even more unequal. You supported a Tory idea, they enabled Brexit for their own party's sake. Surely you must see they have not worked in your interest for 40 years?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

I agree with you. My generation have had it better than the what my kids are enduring. But we should all ask ourselves why. I am not the person in charge of policy, which since the 80s has emphasised the finance business above all else.

Yet, by voting Brexit, you have set yourself a dichotomy. You say sovereignty is more important than money. So you will have to continue to live in a world where life is even more unequal. You supported a Tory idea, they enabled Brexit for their own party's sake. Surely you must see they have not worked in your interest for 40 years?

 

Thank you for your honesty - maximum respect to you. Hey I don’t blame you directly - as you say it is the policy makers. I would take the same opportunities were I in the same position.

My selfish calculation is that I can cope with being say 50% less well off. But that would break the JAMS and ppi recession white mercedes Benz drivers. So the net result for me is a win.

more of the same vs rock the kasbah? For me it is a no brainier.’

This is not to say we cannot ultimately emerge with a more egalitarian society. But that isn’t going to come from tweeting about it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Thank you for your honesty - maximum respect to you. Hey I don’t blame you directly - as you say it is the policy makers. I would take the same opportunities were I in the same position.

My selfish calculation is that I can cope with being say 50% less well off. But that would break the JAMS and ppi recession white mercedes Benz drivers. So the net result for me is a win.

more of the same vs rock the kasbah? For me it is a no brainier.’

This is not to say we cannot ultimately emerge with a more egalitarian society. But that isn’t going to come from tweeting about it.

Hang on a minute Dave.  You want to break there JAMS?  People just scraping by?  You're ok with sending the poorest to the dogs?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, HairyOb1 said:

Hang on a minute Dave.  You want to break there JAMS?  People just scraping by?  You're ok with sending the poorest to the dogs?

 

Most JAMS I know are middle class BOMAD recipients with gigantic mortgages beyond their (realistic) means.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, maffo in oxford said:

Most JAMS I know are middle class BOMAD recipients with gigantic mortgages beyond their (realistic) means.

Not me, the ones I know are holding down 2 jobs, don't drive flash cars and are struggling to make ends meet.  I know as we help them through the school with meals, clothes and books for their children.  Some have lost businesses, some have had marriages go wrong.  Some are just genuinely nice people who've fallen on hard times.  I'd not wish further pain on these folk.

Coupled with the fact they're now, according to McVeigh, likely to be up to 2k worse off a year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Next General Election   64 members have voted

    1. 1. When do you predict the next general election will be held?


      • 2019
      • 2020
      • 2021
      • 2022

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.