GrizzlyDave Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, jonb2 said: I agree with you. My generation have had it better than the what my kids are enduring. But we should all ask ourselves why. I am not the person in charge of policy, which since the 80s has emphasised the finance business above all else. Yet, by voting Brexit, you have set yourself a dichotomy. You say sovereignty is more important than money. So you will have to continue to live in a world where life is even more unequal. You supported a Tory idea, they enabled Brexit for their own party's sake. Surely you must see they have not worked in your interest for 40 years? Thank you for your honesty - maximum respect to you. Hey I don’t blame you directly - as you say it is the policy makers. I would take the same opportunities were I in the same position. My selfish calculation is that I can cope with being say 50% less well off. But that would break the JAMS and ppi recession white mercedes Benz drivers. So the net result for me is a win. more of the same vs rock the kasbah? For me it is a no brainier.’ This is not to say we cannot ultimately emerge with a more egalitarian society. But that isn’t going to come from tweeting about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HairyOb1 Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 47 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said: Thank you for your honesty - maximum respect to you. Hey I don’t blame you directly - as you say it is the policy makers. I would take the same opportunities were I in the same position. My selfish calculation is that I can cope with being say 50% less well off. But that would break the JAMS and ppi recession white mercedes Benz drivers. So the net result for me is a win. more of the same vs rock the kasbah? For me it is a no brainier.’ This is not to say we cannot ultimately emerge with a more egalitarian society. But that isn’t going to come from tweeting about it. Hang on a minute Dave. You want to break there JAMS? People just scraping by? You're ok with sending the poorest to the dogs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smash Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 HPI. Feckking poison. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maffo in oxford Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 1 hour ago, HairyOb1 said: Hang on a minute Dave. You want to break there JAMS? People just scraping by? You're ok with sending the poorest to the dogs? Most JAMS I know are middle class BOMAD recipients with gigantic mortgages beyond their (realistic) means. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HairyOb1 Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, maffo in oxford said: Most JAMS I know are middle class BOMAD recipients with gigantic mortgages beyond their (realistic) means. Not me, the ones I know are holding down 2 jobs, don't drive flash cars and are struggling to make ends meet. I know as we help them through the school with meals, clothes and books for their children. Some have lost businesses, some have had marriages go wrong. Some are just genuinely nice people who've fallen on hard times. I'd not wish further pain on these folk. Coupled with the fact they're now, according to McVeigh, likely to be up to 2k worse off a year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 The more I read on this thread, the more I am convinced that the best option now is a "Hard Brexit". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smash Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: The more I read on this thread, the more I am convinced that the best option now is a "Hard Brexit". Let me guess. Another HPCer who thinks that the UK should leave the most successful trading bloc in the world because house prices? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 9 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said: 1. Without question it would appear. 2. Well, yes he moved on sometime ago which is why I used similar. Rapid slowdown? 3. I'm just pointing out the flaws in articles/graphs & assertions, some repeated across the MSM e.g. UK top to bottom of G7. 3. There are always flaws in MSM reporting of anything even vaguely complex, usually caused by oversimplifying things for the readership and often the reporter/editors lack of knowledge of the subject. In this case the underlying data supports the claims about the impact of the referendum vote on the UK economy, relative to other countries which is why the OBR etc all came to similar conclusions. On to more interesting matters did you read the text of the Ivan Rogers speech posted above. Do you disagree with his analysis or prediction of where we will end up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, smash said: Let me guess. Another HPCer who thinks that the UK should leave the most successful trading bloc in the world because house prices? You guessed wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonb2 Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 23 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: The more I read on this thread, the more I am convinced that the best option now is a "Hard Brexit". I agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said: Thank you for your honesty - maximum respect to you. Hey I don’t blame you directly - as you say it is the policy makers. I would take the same opportunities were I in the same position. My selfish calculation is that I can cope with being say 50% less well off. But that would break the JAMS and ppi recession white mercedes Benz drivers. So the net result for me is a win. more of the same vs rock the kasbah? For me it is a no brainier.’ This is not to say we cannot ultimately emerge with a more egalitarian society. But that isn’t going to come from tweeting about it. You are right that is a pretty selfish attitude, feck the proles and all that. Why would seeing other people who less fortunate than you have their lives wrecked cheer you up. It doesn't seem to fit well with your Mr Snowflake (getting worked up about someone being called a Gammon) alter ego. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 34 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: The more I read on this thread, the more I am convinced that the best option now is a "Hard Brexit". It looks like Brexit will end up pretty much as expected. There will be no have cake and eat it deal, there won't even be a fair deal. What we will get is a deal that reflects the relative power of the EU and the UK. That's how the world of international relations works (and the reason why countries come together in trade blocks). Throwing a strop and saying that if we cannot get what we want we will have nothing would be an act of childish petulance showing we still have an overblown sense of entitlement and haven't yet come to terms with our position post Brexit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 12 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said: You should it's the most informed and considered piece I have seen to date. It completely exposes to the utter incompetence and fantasy thinking of our "leaders", on both sides of the debate, and explains convincingly where we are likely to end up. I can see it would be quite a challenging read for the likes of High Yield and kzb as it forensically demolishes many of their beliefs about how the UK will benefit from leaving in a way I suspect they would find hard to argue against. Edit - Newsnight is reporting that the transition/backstop will have no end date as May knows any date will be unacceptable to the EU. Rogers prediction for the end point was Don't really have any beliefs beyond the short term & the obvious (the sun will rise tomorrow) - as I'm not a soothsayer. Thanks to Dave for posting the really good Ivan Rogers speech. https://share.trin.cam.ac.uk/sites/public/Comms/Rogers_brexit_as_revolution.pdf For me, reinforced how difficult it already is to gain some separation from the EU, and how impossible it would have been in the future if we hadn't acted when we did. This bit chimed with me: Quote But, if we stand back one moment from the current frenzy, both wings of the revolution are unable or unwilling to answer Grube’s very apposite question. If Brexit is NOT about radical, deliberate divergence from the EU model and about deregulation, what was the point of it? Always been in favour of a Flexit style transition, but perhaps a hard Brexit might be the way to go? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonb2 Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 12 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: It looks like Brexit will end up pretty much as expected. There will be no have cake and eat it deal, there won't even be a fair deal. What we will get is a deal that reflects the relative power of the EU and the UK. That's how the world of international relations works (and the reason why countries come together in trade blocks). Throwing a strop and saying that if we cannot get what we want we will have nothing would be an act of childish petulance showing we still have an overblown sense of entitlement and haven't yet come to terms with our position post Brexit. This. The word Brexit is a now a synonym of 'hubris' in my thesaurus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: It looks like Brexit will end up pretty much as expected. There will be no have cake and eat it deal, there won't even be a fair deal. What we will get is a deal that reflects the relative power of the EU and the UK. That's how the world of international relations works (and the reason why countries come together in trade blocks). Throwing a strop and saying that if we cannot get what we want we will have nothing would be an act of childish petulance showing we still have an overblown sense of entitlement and haven't yet come to terms with our position post Brexit. Childish petulance? It seems to be unclear what the people thought they voted for, so that leaves two options, ask the people to clarify (second referendum) or have a Hard Brexit and sort out the details after the event, but Brexit in Name Only is not, in my opinion, a democratic option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonb2 Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Bruce Banner said: Childish petulance? It seems to be unclear what the people thought they voted for, so that leaves two options, ask the people to clarify (second referendum) or have a Hard Brexit and sort out the details after the event, but Brexit in Name Only is not, in my opinion, a democratic option. I agree again. It's very, very, very stupid. It makes the whole exercise a monumental waste of time and money. Either stay in with maximum benefits or leave completely and suffer the consequences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, highYield said: Don't really have any beliefs beyond the short term & the obvious (the sun will rise tomorrow) - as I'm not a soothsayer. Thanks to Dave for posting the really good Ivan Rogers speech. https://share.trin.cam.ac.uk/sites/public/Comms/Rogers_brexit_as_revolution.pdf For me, reinforced how difficult it already is to gain some separation from the EU, and how impossible it would have been in the future if we hadn't acted when we did. This bit chimed with me: Always been in favour of a Flexit style transition, but perhaps a hard Brexit might be the way to go? What is the model for the UK post a hard Brexit? The answer seems to be no one knows, however we do know that the Leavers claims about countries queuing up to give us great trade deals is a fantasy that only Mr Fox still believes in. Re the point of Brexit, you missed the obvious conclusion that without a credible answer to the question above there was/is no point to it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 1 hour ago, maffo in oxford said: Most JAMS I know are middle class BOMAD recipients with gigantic mortgages beyond their (realistic) means. Exactly this 1 hour ago, HairyOb1 said: Not me, the ones I know are holding down 2 jobs, don't drive flash cars and are struggling to make ends meet. I know as we help them through the school with meals, clothes and books for their children. Some have lost businesses, some have had marriages go wrong. Some are just genuinely nice people who've fallen on hard times. I'd not wish further pain on these folk. Coupled with the fact they're now, according to McVeigh, likely to be up to 2k worse off a year. See above for my view on JAMS. Pre budget spin, they will back fill the £2k gap. 38 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: You are right that is a pretty selfish attitude, feck the proles and all that. Why would seeing other people who less fortunate than you have their lives wrecked cheer you up. It doesn't seem to fit well with your Mr Snowflake (getting worked up about someone being called a Gammon) alter ego. The proles will be fine, it’s the middle class JAMS who will be hit. Selfish? Of course. But I’m being honest and up front about it. My calculation is that my VI will come out better for brexit. Why would I not vote according to how it will benefit me? As to the rest of you - caveat emptor! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: Childish petulance? It seems to be unclear what the people thought they voted for, so that leaves two options, ask the people to clarify (second referendum) or have a Hard Brexit and sort out the details after the event, but Brexit in Name Only is not, in my opinion, a democratic option. BRINO seems to fit quite nicely with a 48-52 vote, especially where the 52 included a range of mutually incompatible possibilities. Given none of the likely outcomes (May's deal, Hard Brexit, Crash out) are supported by more than 25% of the electorate you could argue that there aren't any democratic options. Sorting out a Hard Brexit, means accepting we have thrown away all of our trade deals, special privileges opt outs etc. Most of which were gained when the UK was, relatively speaking, a far more powerful nation and starting again working from a much lower base. The problem with a second referendum is that it would now be seen as a national humiliation without some major concession from the EU, which at this late stage may not be on offer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 20 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: What is the model for the UK post a hard Brexit? The answer seems to be no one knows, however we do know that the Leavers claims about countries queuing up to give us great trade deals is a fantasy that only Mr Fox still believes in. Re the point of Brexit, you missed the obvious conclusion that without a credible answer to the question above there was/is no point to it? I didn't miss the sentence that I quoted. It's more that my guesses don't coincide with your beliefs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yelims Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 LOL brexiteers gonna have heart attack now that the Daily Mail flip flopped on Brexit https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6265569/No-deal-Brexit-cause-worst-economic-crash-45-YEARS.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HairyOb1 Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 (edited) 41 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: It seems to be unclear what the people thought they voted for, so that leaves two options, ask the people to clarify (second referendum) or have a Hard Brexit and sort out the details after the event, but Brexit in Name Only is not, in my opinion, a democratic option. I think this is now clear. 28 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said: Exactly this See above for my view on JAMS. Pre budget spin, they will back fill the £2k gap. The proles will be fine, it’s the middle class JAMS who will be hit. Selfish? Of course. But I’m being honest and up front about it. My calculation is that my VI will come out better for brexit. Why would I not vote according to how it will benefit me? As to the rest of you - caveat emptor! The proles will not come out of this well, and for someone who keeps saying they don't know what will happen, how can you say McVeigh will see the reforms turned around? The Proles will suffer, as well over leveraged people. I don't seek enjoyment out of peoples misery and suffering. I don't think it's a look you'd want to try and carry. Edited October 12, 2018 by HairyOb1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said: The more I read on this thread, the more I am convinced that the best option now is a "Hard Brexit". It's the only option Bruce. Or no Brexit. There is not middle ground... that was clear prior to the referendum if you were listening. And let's not for a minute think that this isn't a very well engineered event either... Hard brexit is exactly what a lot of well placed people will reap in big profits with. In the end Brexit won't fundamentally change anything for us little guys. I've said that and continue to believe: there will be a temporary blip here and there, but the continual sliding quality of life in the UK will steam on ahead. Sure it may create some shifts in domestic politics.. perhaps a new party or two.. but the same actors. If you haven't upped your game and created opportunities for yourself through education & training, investment.. and are hoping that the state will sort you out.. you're screwed. Nothing can change the mathematical truth that the demographics here are going wreck the UK's finances... and in due time the removal of rights to young people is going to bite this country in the a$$ in a big way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 19 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said: I think this is now clear. Good, so you agree with me that a Hard Brexit is the way forward from where we are now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yelims Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 I am still fascinated as to how quickly the Daily Mail done a U-Turn on the issue, it is if a million Brexiteers cried out in pain and their "will of the people" was suddenly silenced this wasnt that long ago... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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