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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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HOLA441
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HOLA442
1 minute ago, thehowler said:

Remain hopes are fading at conference...from today's Gruniad headlines, ref only...this might push Labour MP moderates into breaking away sooner than predicted?

The shadow chancellor said he would back the idea of a new referendum if a general election did not happen. But he argued that while it was up to parliament to decide the question, he believed it should be just “a vote on the deal itself”.

“If we are going to respect the last referendum, it will be about the deal, it will a negotiation on the deal,” McDonnell said.

If you read between the lines, the phrase “If we are going to respect the last referendum, it will be about the deal, it will a negotiation on the deal,”, shouldn't worry people who believe that the best deal is the one we have now.

The mechanics and timing will eventually see a remain option on any future ballot. The Labour 'red lines' guarantee that this will happen. Labour are playing a clever game, here. It's all about timing.

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HOLA443
14 hours ago, jonb2 said:

The EU is more protectionist than neo-liberal. Not without it's problems, I take it as by far the least worse 'block' to align ourselves with. In the face of Brexit providing no plan for the future - I am for the status quo as I really do not trust the Tories, which in my view are the destroyers of everything.

Without the EU breathing down the neck of Westminster - this place will turn into an elites playground IMO. I also agree that we really do need to keep our distance from the USA. Not what some Brexiteers like Fox want.

Brexit solves absolutely nothing - it only makes us poorer and will help things like this.

https://jacobinmag.com/2018/09/uk-london-housing-crisis-speculation-commodities-financialization/

Exactly, pessimism about whether we the people can consign the tory party to a rump of raging loons and bigots which is its core even today, means good honest progressives and moderates opt for big daddy Brussels to keep us in line.  Big Daddy is not a nice person either.  We should learn to be confident in ourselves and stand up to the bully right.

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4 minutes ago, Cryptotrader said:

The mechanics and timing will eventually see a remain option on any future ballot. The Labour 'red lines' guarantee that this will happen. Labour are playing a clever game, here. It's all about timing.

It won't be me that shatters your dreams, Cryptotrader.

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1 minute ago, ElPapasito said:

Big Daddy is not a nice person either.  We should learn to be confident in ourselves and stand up to the bully right.

It is not possible with our 'first past the post' system. Warts & all, the EU is really the only option that can save Britain from reverting to the serfdom it was before WW2.

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31 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Lots of possibilities

They will find themselves in the same mess over Brexit as the Tories within weeks of taking power because like the Tories they are promising a deal that is not on offer.

It's true that Labour are also offering cakeism (i.e. Brexit models that the EU have already said no to in principle) but it's much easier for the PLP to get from where they are now to uniting around a Norway Brexit than for the PCP to unite around anything. As soon as May goes for either Norway or Canada she triggers a rebellion from either Brexiteers or Remainers, at least resulting in a leadership contest and maybe a government confidence vote.

It's likely that the next Labour government would be in coalition or confidence and supply with the SNP and Lib Dems which could make things quite messy as the SNP will want an independence referendum and to keep Scotland in the EU while the Lib Dems want to keep the whole UK in the EU.

My guess would be Labour majority government = Norway Brexit, LabLibSNP coalition = second referendum with a choice between remaining or a Norway Brexit.

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1 hour ago, frederico said:

As for the 22 election, all this will be forgotten by then.

Sweet talking Blaire has been the only electable labour leader since the 70s. That's nearly 50 years. 

Yes 50 years since any labour leader except Blaire has been in power, does Corbyn really have the charisma of a man about to change that?

Corbyn's opposite numbers (May and Cable) aren't exactly bursting at the seams with charisma.

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31 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Remain hopes are fading at conference...from today's Gruniad headlines, ref only...this might push Labour MP moderates into breaking away sooner than predicted?

The shadow chancellor said he would back the idea of a new referendum if a general election did not happen. But he argued that while it was up to parliament to decide the question, he believed it should be just “a vote on the deal itself”.

“If we are going to respect the last referendum, it will be about the deal, it will a negotiation on the deal,” McDonnell said.

As I said yesterday, that's not going to fly with the Millennials who now dominate the party membership. I suspect things would get unpleasant quite quickly if they tried to hold a vote on no deal or a bad deal. 

Also holding a referendum that did not include Remain as an option would be electorally disastrous, alienating both remain and Leave voters.  

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20 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

It's true that Labour are also offering cakeism (i.e. Brexit models that the EU have already said no to in principle) but it's much easier for the PLP to get from where they are now to uniting around a Norway Brexit than for the PCP to unite around anything. As soon as May goes for either Norway or Canada she triggers a rebellion from either Brexiteers or Remainers, at least resulting in a leadership contest and maybe a government confidence vote.

It's likely that the next Labour government would be in coalition or confidence and supply with the SNP and Lib Dems which could make things quite messy as the SNP will want an independence referendum and to keep Scotland in the EU while the Lib Dems want to keep the whole UK in the EU.

My guess would be Labour majority government = Norway Brexit, LabLibSNP coalition = second referendum with a choice between remaining or a Norway Brexit.

I suspect you are right about needing SNP support. Although staying in the EU may be enough to buy their support for a first term.  

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Lol, labour have been trotting out fantasy policies ever since Corbyn became leader, they'll eventually learn not being in power doesn't really help anyone.

Took them a long time though in the 80s and 90s.

Corbyn, MacDonald etc must be extremely nuts because they know all about Thatcherism.

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14 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Corbyn's opposite numbers (May and Cable) aren't exactly bursting at the seams with charisma.

Look up what happened to Maggie and Major, forget Cable, the lib Dems are irrelevant, Maggie was stabbed in the back and I think Major was too.

Do you honestly think the Tories are going to give Corbyn a sniff of power

After the brexit debacle, a stalking horse will come along, Redwood has done it before, then the next leader will save the day.

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10 minutes ago, frederico said:

Look up what happened to Maggie and Major, forget Cable, the lib Dems are irrelevant, Maggie was stabbed in the back and I think Major was too.

Do you honestly think the Tories are going to give Corbyn a sniff of power

After the brexit debacle, a stalking horse will come along, Redwood has done it before, then the next leader will save the day.

If that's what happens let's hope it's not someone who was a minister in the governments of Cameron and May and that their first action is to get rid of Carney.

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5 minutes ago, frederico said:

Look up what happened to Maggie and Major, forget Cable, the lib Dems are irrelevant, Maggie was stabbed in the back and I think Major was too.

Do you honestly think the Tories are going to give Corbyn a sniff of power

After the brexit debacle, a stalking horse will come along, Redwood has done it before, then the next leader will save the day.

I think it's possible that Tory remainer MPs would vote against the government in a confidence vote if it looked like the UK was heading for either no deal or a Canada Brexit. Given how small the government's majority is in Parliament (including DUP support) it wouldn't take very many Tory remainers to bring it down. If another government wasn't formed and able to win a confidence vote within 14 days there would be a general election.

It's also possible that Tory hard-Brexit supporting MPs would vote against the government in a confidence vote if it looked like the UK was heading for a Norway Brexit. Again, there are more than enough of them to do it.

Changing leader might help, but then again it might not. Those two wings of the party are difficult to reconcile whoever the leader is and the government has a tiny majority thanks to its terrible showing against Corbyn's unelectable Labour in 2017.

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12 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

No

I do. I've worked in the dark side of internet manipulation (SEO, private blog networks and auto-commenting (bots)) - the black hat Russians were the masters of doing this. As they are with cyber-crime. Put this together with the absolute resolute bitterness of Putin and how Russia knows more about manipulating the populace since the days of Lenin.

You would be naive to believe otherwise. I'll have to post this again.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html

 

Now you may argue that YOU weren't influenced - which is true if you say so. But then you are in a minority group - a labour supporting leaver.

But to say Russia is not a factor with obvious motive is dangerous. Just look at what Sheeple has posted about the weaponisation of refugees by Russia. We just have to admit we don't currently have a thinker on our side that is as good as Putin. Sad.

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6 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

I do. I've worked in the dark side of internet manipulation (SEO, private blog networks and auto-commenting (bots)) - the black hat Russians were the masters of doing this. As they are with cyber-crime. Put this together with the absolute resolute bitterness of Putin and how Russia knows more about manipulating the populace since the days of Lenin.

You would be naive to believe otherwise. I'll have to post this again.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html

 

Now you may argue that YOU weren't influenced - which is true if you say so. But then you are in a minority group - a labour supporting leaver.

But to say Russia is not a factor with obvious motive is dangerous. Just look at what Sheeple has posted about the weaponisation of refugees by Russia. We just have to admit we don't currently have a thinker on our side that is as good as Putin. Sad.

I don’t have the experience in this you do. I recognise that Russia is doing most of this, but maybe I don’t appreciate the extent.

I guess I just consider the impact to be minimal. But I freely admit I am a minority.

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1 hour ago, ElPapasito said:

Exactly, pessimism about whether we the people can consign the tory party to a rump of raging loons and bigots which is its core even today, means good honest progressives and moderates opt for big daddy Brussels to keep us in line.  Big Daddy is not a nice person either.  We should learn to be confident in ourselves and stand up to the bully right.

Question is EP, who is the biggest bully?

https://web.archive.org/web/20180116053455/https://dontvoteconservativeuk.com/

Finding anything near competent leadership in Westminster is currently impossible. This is the problem in a nutshell

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3 hours ago, frederico said:

I will be amazed if the Tories give Corbyn a sniff of an election before 22 .

A no confidence vote would have to include a significant number of remainer Tories, I can think of one who would actually go through with a threat.

Deal or no deal, I can't see the Tories willingly going to the country. 

As for the 22 election, all this will be forgotten by then.

Sweet talking Blaire has been the only electable labour leader since the 70s. That's nearly 50 years. 

Yes 50 years since any labour leader except Blaire has been in power, does Corbyn really have the charisma of a man about to change that?

 

The people that are die hard Labour voters are not going to budge, no matter what, and the millions who are lazy non achievers who play the victim and want everything handed to them  will always vote Labour.  But this referendum 2 could be a game changer, I know enough now to realise that Remainers would sell their families internal organs to overturn Brexit, I seriously think Corbyn has a good chance now.

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1 hour ago, frederico said:

Lol, was he elected pm 

No,

That man had to be one of the most delusional politicians ever . It was massive shame the late great John Smith died before Blair came along, he was good un and would have easily beat John Major. Everything just seemed to fall nicely  into place nice for Mr Tony Blair

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