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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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HOLA442
29 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

It's got nothing to do with remain. It's an internal Tory matter.

Choice is leave or something the EU already offers. EEA.

Wasn't blaming you was just asking for Remainers opinion. It's either No deal now or a referendum which will then lead straight onto a 3rd referendum should Remain gain a narrow victory. Looks like we are now heading for 5 years of disruption no matter what happens in the next few months.

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2 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

No deal Brexit is about removing human rights. That's the freedom they want

I never quite understood the Mogg and Bannon fanbois on here. They must be well aware that the end game is a removal of the welfare state to end up like the die poor in the street U.S.

Presumably they're mightily confident that they'll never end up jobless. I wonder if that turns out to be true in the new Minfordian sunny uplands.

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2 hours ago, inbruges said:

Just wondering what you full time  24/7 Remainers on this thread feel about the Chequers proposal getting thorough now, Labour have made it clear they are not going to vote for it, I can see at least 70 Tory MP's not voting for it, my money at the moment is for a no deal.

Yip. me too.

Followed by a confirmed NODEAL to run, or 100% U-turn and re-apply to join. I can't read the mind of the Maybot, though.

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4 minutes ago, inbruges said:

It's either No deal now or a referendum which will then lead straight onto a 3rd referendum should Remain gain a narrow victory. Looks like we are now heading for 5 years of disruption no matter what happens in the next few months.

Two other possible paths...

 - the EU make an exceptional offer in November, recognizing our concerns on immigration and agreeing to time-limited controls/etc, also repeating no closer integration offer. An outstretched hand...

 - the EU accept/propose close to invisible controls for NI and Raab/Barnier piece together a Political Declaration, it goes to Parliament in December and Tory MPs decide it's better than the no-deal chaos propaganda they've been fed for last few months, or a GE. They vote yes and we leave as scheduled in March.

I think the EU want us out by April so they can get on with electing a new Council/MEPs and sorting out their budget. And they will work to do it neatly.

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14 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said:

I never quite understood the Mogg and Bannon fanbois on here.

Think I've missed any pro-Mogg posts on here. People didn't like the Class War guy snarling at his kids, but I didn't realize he had fans on the board.

I imagine Mogg will end up voting for the Ghost of Chequers.

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14 minutes ago, thehowler said:

I imagine Mogg will end up voting for the Ghost of Chequers.

Every time I switch the TV news on, Mogg pops up : it appears to me he's even running the show. For now.

May has immense resources at her disposal. She's going to have to face him down at some point soon. Maybe the renegades will get sufficient numbers to challenge her. Who knows.

6 months to go. Tick Tock.

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57 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said:

Yip. me too.

Followed by a confirmed NODEAL to run, or 100% U-turn and re-apply to join. I can't read the mind of the Maybot, though.

Re-join is the far better option than the Chequers proposal

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3 hours ago, inbruges said:

Just wondering what you full time  24/7 Remainers on this thread feel about the Chequers proposal getting thorough now, Labour have made it clear they are not going to vote for it, I can see at least 70 Tory MP's not voting for it, my money at the moment is for a no deal.

 

No Chequers or, whatever it morphs into by the time it is turned into something acceptable to the EU, equalls no Brexit. 

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1 hour ago, inbruges said:

Wasn't blaming you was just asking for Remainers opinion. It's either No deal now or a referendum which will then lead straight onto a 3rd referendum should Remain gain a narrow victory. Looks like we are now heading for 5 years of disruption no matter what happens in the next few months.

It seems like years of disruption may be the Nash Equilibrium.

It's suboptimal, but there is no mechanism for co-operation between Remainers and Leavers.

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41 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

 

No Chequers or, whatever it morphs into by the time it is turned into something acceptable to the EU, equalls no Brexit. 

I am reading the views as a 50 50 observer of this Brexit on this thread with probably two or even three posters being this most moronic and self serving I have personally come across, and I cannot help but feel that to  stay or leave is the least of the UK's problems right now, the division in the UK worries me far more, and the divided politics that go with it. Labour are just looking out for Labour and the Tories are no different. The most perfect solution that could ever be possible if put in front of Labour now would be 100% rejected.

Yep, division and populist politics are my big concern in the coming few years.

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1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

No Chequers or, whatever it morphs into by the time it is turned into something acceptable to the EU, equalls no Brexit. 

If she can't get Chequers, she'll have to go for a GE. (How can MPs ask us to decide in a 2nd ref whether to accept something they have just rejected on our behalf? Potential for mass disorder high and too much of any ref debate is unknown.) Labour will push for a GE.

The EU might agree to an Art 50 extension, if there's a clear schedule for a GE - but it will still be a massive hassle for them in terms of the European Parliament, the Divorce Bill etc. And why should they waste their time giving us a THIRD OFFER - Cameron, May the first two.

What would happen at the GE? May or a Tory caretaker PM would argue back the plan if you want Brexit. Labour would say let us negotiate, we'll be really good at it, and we'll go for EEA.

The strength of support for Corbyn plus time for a change mood of party politics plus remain voters would probably tip it for the socialists.

So, if you were a Tory MP, would you vote for Chequers or not?

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46 minutes ago, inbruges said:

I am reading the views as a 50 50 observer of this Brexit on this thread with probably two or even three posters being this most moronic and self serving I have personally come across, and I cannot help but feel that to  stay or leave is the least of the UK's problems right now, the division in the UK worries me far more, and the divided politics that go with it. Labour are just looking out for Labour and the Tories are no different. The most perfect solution that could ever be possible if put in front of Labour now would be 100% rejected.

Yep, division and populist politics are my big concern in the coming few years.

I was near 50 50 at the start of the referendum campaign.

But the whole Brexit enterprise stank to high heaven before I got anywhere near a polling booth which is why I wanted no part of it.

Had no idea it would be as bad as this though, and have to agree it does look like trouble on the horizon. 

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37 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

This is my biggest fear. If we don’t make a stand - it’s over we will be part of the USofE.

You sound almost as swivel eyed as those lunatics like Farage & Mogg.

We were in a very cushty situation - largely thanks to Maggie Thatcher. Not a great fan but she won UK some fabulous consessions & opt outs as well as, pretty much, being the driving force behind the single market.

The other thing the Moggs, Farages neglected to mention to their fans was that the mass migration from East EU to Btitain in the 2000's was down to Fat Cat's in business (ie. People like Mogg, Farage and all the other fabulously wealthy people in the current Tory Cabinet) lobying the British Government to go against the EU and let as many in who wanted to come.

Best we can hope for now is a three way referendum - Leave No Deal, Leave Chequers Deal, Remain.

Now that more and more people are educated and not slavishly following the line from billionaire foreign press barons we would have nothing to fear from subsequent referendums, either.

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9 minutes ago, Cryptotrader said:

You sound almost as swivel eyed as those lunatics like Farage & Mogg.

We were in a very cushty situation - largely thanks to Maggie Thatcher. Not a great fan but she won UK some fabulous consessions & opt outs as well as, pretty much, being the driving force behind the single market.

The other thing the Moggs, Farages neglected to mention to their fans was that the mass migration from East EU to Btitain in the 2000's was down to Fat Cat's in business (ie. People like Mogg, Farage and all the other fabulously wealthy people in the current Tory Cabinet) lobying the British Government to go against the EU and let as many in who wanted to come.

Best we can hope for now is a three way referendum - Leave No Deal, Leave Chequers Deal, Remain.

Now that more and more people are educated and not slavishly following the line from billionaire foreign press barons we would have nothing to fear from subsequent referendums, either.

Nobody voted for no deal, plenty voted purely on immigration.

Two options, chequers or remain with the immigration control we failed to implement.

The ERG can go swivel.

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