Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[IMHAL]

3 minutes ago, kzb said:

The UK signed a free trade agreement with New Zealand on 28 February 2022. Negotiations were launched on 17 June 2020.

**The agreement is not yet in force **. Both the UK and New Zealand are required to complete their respective domestic procedures for the agreement to come into effect. Once approved by both parliaments, businesses will be able to trade under its terms.

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/uk-new-zealand-free-trade-agreement

So does that answer that question you keep repeating time after time?

 

From my understanding and with the current projections the NZ deal will be worth about £1 per person per year. It's a non entity as far as anyone is concerned. Good for optics but bugger all use to anyone on a practical level.

If the limit to NZ lamb was lifted significantly it would still decimate our domestic industry.

[Cocha]

2 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Why only low skilled? Why not medium or high skilled?

In any case, I am not sure if you remember, but this has been explained to you before. It is called the lump of labour fallacy. This fallacy has been given a name and is a known thing precisely because people like you need it explaining over and over.

Will an economy of 60mm people have lower wages than an economy of 30mm people? No, because people drive the economy. Each person who moves here needs the services of dentists, checkout tellers, bar staff, plumbers, builders, electricians, lawyers, and so on. They create the demand for more jobs, therefore in the overall picture have little downward impact on wages and in fact due to the positive effects of social mobility are good overall for an economy.

That is why in the four nations of the UK we don't try to pin people to the geographical region they were born to even though people in Huddersfield would move to London and work for cheaper than a Londoner might do.

I didn't say it doesn't have an effect on medium or high skilled, my experience has been seeing it at the low end. Remainers have lied for decades this isn't the case.

[thecrashingisles]

1 minute ago, IMHAL said:

And that was done by agreement, ie our entire agricultural, services and industrial base is now reliant on the level playing field created within the EU.

There will be no difference in dislocation in negotiating FTA's with other countries outside the EU. There will be sacrifices and possibly some gains. If you look at the deal we have struck with Oz you will see farmers up in arms because they know that they cannot compete. Same for NZ and lamb. 

You seem to be suggesting that there is only uposide to any negotiation when plainly that is not the case.

What we 'had' is stability with the EU and a level playing field that has evolved over time and that we have evolved into. That makes sense because they are our main customer. NZ, Oz, USA etc are not.  

I'm not suggesting that there are only upsides, just that the same trade offs are also there when it comes to our trading relationship with the rest of Europe. If you're in favour of protectionism with the rest of the world but uncontrolled free trade with Europe, there's an inconsistency in your argument.

[dugsbody]

2 minutes ago, Cocha said:

I didn't say it doesn't have an effect on medium or high skilled, my experience has been seeing it at the low end. Remainers have lied for decades this isn't the case.

Nah. Lump of labour fallacy.

[Dweller]

16 minutes ago, Cocha said:

So they'll just switch to less profitable markets? Fair enough.

Again isn't this what GB is doing?

But why less profitable? 

The island of Ireland seem to be doing OK finding new markets and just trading goods into the UK but buying from elsewhere. 

Edited May 16, 2022 by Dweller

[byron78]

5 minutes ago, Cocha said:

I didn't say it doesn't have an effect on medium or high skilled, my experience has been seeing it at the low end. Remainers have lied for decades this isn't the case.

Low skilled workers should all be licking Blair's boots for delivering the minimum wage.

 

[Cocha]

3 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Nah. Lump of labour fallacy.

No point in us going round in circles with this. You believe your lump of labour fallacy and I'll believe that FOM negatively affects wages and working conditions for low/unskilled workers and that remainers spend many many years lying about this.

[Cocha]

3 minutes ago, Dweller said:

Again isn't this what GB is doing?

But why less profitable? 

Because if they were more profitable, surely they are the markets they would already be serving? It could be that the costs of Brexit to them makes utilising those markets more cost effective (assuming they are there), but likely not as profitable for them as the alternative once was.

[IMHAL]

1 minute ago, thecrashingisles said:

I'm not suggesting that there are only upsides, just that the same trade offs are also there when it comes to our trading relationship with the rest of Europe. If you're in favour of protectionism with the rest of the world but uncontrolled free trade with Europe, there's an inconsistency in your argument.

You detect an inconsistency because you are coming at this from a clean slate. That is not the case. All our trade is now geared up to the EU (our biggest and nearest customer). It has grown into what it is now over 40 years and has already made the necessary shifts, the ones you talk about. 

Now we will have to remake all that trade and change our industries to make way for the compromises necessary if we are to negotiate new FTA's, with customers who are smaller, more remote and less aligned. It does not make sense from a geographical perspective nor with the size of the new markets we are seeking. The opportunities available will never make up the loss we have had to take. This has been forcast to death by many analysts and the vast majority agree. It's just plain daft.

[rollover]

Brexit fury as Boris booed in Northern Ireland

Boris Johnson was booed by protestors in Northern Ireland as he arrived at Hillsborough Castle ahead of talks following a clash with the European Union over post-Brexit trading rules.

Express

[Former postman]

3 minutes ago, rollover said:

Brexit fury as Boris booed in Northern Ireland

Boris Johnson was booed by protestors in Northern Ireland as he arrived at Hillsborough Castle ahead of talks following a clash with the European Union over post-Brexit trading rules.

Express

Trololol

[rollover]

12 minutes ago, Postman said:

Trololol

Boris Johnson booed and jeered as he arrived at Hillsborough Castle

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was booed and jeered by around 200 people who gathered at the gates of Hillsborough Castle as his cavalcade drove in this afternoon.

Protesters, including campaigners for the Irish language, victims campaigners and anti Brexit activists, were among the crowds who held aloft banners.

Protesters held banners which read “Back off Boris. Protect The Protocol”.

irishnews

[dugsbody]

31 minutes ago, Cocha said:

No point in us going round in circles with this. You believe your lump of labour fallacy and I'll believe that FOM negatively affects wages and working conditions for low/unskilled workers and that remainers spend many many years lying about this.

👍

 

[Confusion of VIs]

2 hours ago, kzb said:

You said the same a year or two back.  It turned out you had nothing to back this assertion about the TCA.  The only person I have heard this from is yourself, and no-one said you were correct (in those days there were still a few intelligent persons on this thread).

Dumping is not the same thing as market competition.  If NZ can sell us product X at 10% lower than the EU farmers, we will be free to buy it.  At the moment we are not, because product X has only a small quota allowed.  That is in the terms of the deal which both sides negotiated, not due to the TCA.  Over time the quotas are set to increase, but not fast enough.

Can we assume that despite all your waffling on you have never bothered to read the TCA? 

Trade and Cooperation Agreement between UK and EU – CP 426 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

If you had read it you would seen the various references to anti dumping measures and that it incorporates the GATT 1994 anti dumping agreement. To spare us your speculation about what constitutes dumping

 WTO | Appellate Body Repertory of Reports and Awards 1995-2013 - Anti-Dumping Agreement

1 hour ago, thecrashingisles said:

If you believe this then you should be against the single market on principle.

Only if you believe trade is a pointless zero sum game, rather than one which needs rules to ensure a win win outcome.  

[byron78]

40 minutes ago, rollover said:

Brexit fury as Boris booed in Northern Ireland

Boris Johnson was booed by protestors in Northern Ireland as he arrived at Hillsborough Castle ahead of talks following a clash with the European Union over post-Brexit trading rules.

Express

He lied to them. Lied to their faces.

Full respect to the Northern Irish for this.

[kzb]

36 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

If you had read it you would seen the various references to anti dumping measures and that it incorporates the GATT 1994 anti dumping agreement. To spare us your speculation about what constitutes dumping

"Dumping" is simply not applicable to the arrangement under discussion.

If NZ sold us some onions at way below the NZ market price, that would be dumping on us, not the EU.  That case would be between the UK and NZ.  It would be UK onion suppliers who could complain about it.

Similarly if a UK onion supplier dumped too-cheap onions onto the French market, that dumping dispute would be between UK and EU.

NZ selling us onions at below EU price is not dumping and certainly not dumping on the EU.  As long as the onions are not too far from the normal NZ price it isn't dumping on us either. 

 

[kzb]

1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

From my understanding and with the current projections the NZ deal will be worth about £1 per person per year. It's a non entity as far as anyone is concerned. Good for optics but bugger all use to anyone on a practical level.

If the limit to NZ lamb was lifted significantly it would still decimate our domestic industry.

Food inflation is obviously a big problem at the moment.  Many people suspect that many price increases are more than necessary and business is taking advantage of the fashion for inflation.

What really sorts out that kind of thing is competition.  If we have several suppliers competing to supply us, that can only drive down the price.  So although the NZ deal is forecast to have only a small impact on "GDP", the impact on the low-paid could be significantly beneficial.

Again there is this obsession with lamb.   Farmers are basically paid to keep sheep from taxes, even so I suspect lamb is not a significant cost to the low-paid.  What's more it is a moribund industry because it will have to be decimated for the purposes of Net Zero.

We import 360,000 tonnes of onions a year.  That 360,000 tonnes is not being produced by UK suppliers.  So why not introduce a 360,000 tonne tariff-free import quota for onion imports from NZ?  Our own onion farmers can hardly complain, because they've not been producing enough to fulfil demand.  They don't have the transport costs so they should be able to out-compete NZ on the amount of onions they do manage to produce.

[byron78]

[IMHAL]

2 minutes ago, kzb said:

Food inflation is obviously a big problem at the moment.  Many people suspect that many price increases are more than necessary and business is taking advantage of the fashion for inflation.

What really sorts out that kind of thing is competition.  If we have several suppliers competing to supply us, that can only drive down the price.  So although the NZ deal is forecast to have only a small impact on "GDP", the impact on the low-paid could be significantly beneficial.

Again there is this obsession with lamb.   Farmers are basically paid to keep sheep from taxes, even so I suspect lamb is not a significant cost to the low-paid.  What's more it is a moribund industry because it will have to be decimated for the purposes of Net Zero.

We import 360,000 tonnes of onions a year.  That 360,000 tonnes is not being produced by UK suppliers.  So why not introduce a 360,000 tonne tariff-free import quota for onion imports from NZ?  Our own onion farmers can hardly complain, because they've not been producing enough to fulfil demand.  They don't have the transport costs so they should be able to out-compete NZ on the amount of onions they do manage to produce.

Are you going to fly the onions to the UK because I don't believe they freeze well? If treated carefully they can be stored for up to 2 and a bit months...just in time for them to reach us on the putrid side.

You do realise that it takes between 50 and 60 days to ship from NZ to the UK?

I really do think you are living in some sort of alternate reality. But carry on...must be very frustrating living in lala land...where what you seem to think things are easy to do, but no one actually does it. Everyone else must be idiots eyh

 

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, kzb said:

"Dumping" is simply not applicable to the arrangement under discussion.

If NZ sold us some onions at way below the NZ market price, that would be dumping on us, not the EU.  That case would be between the UK and NZ.  It would be UK onion suppliers who could complain about it.

Similarly if a UK onion supplier dumped too-cheap onions onto the French market, that dumping dispute would be between UK and EU.

NZ selling us onions at below EU price is not dumping and certainly not dumping on the EU.  As long as the onions are not too far from the normal NZ price it isn't dumping on us either. 

 

😁😁😁 I knew this would be your response. The above is simplistic tripe you would like to be true but isn't. If you had bothered to read the WTO document you would understand the definition of dumping is far wider. 

The reason why there are quotas and tariffs on NZ is to ensure that its arrival does not disrupt the UK market forcing UK farmers to sell their lamb product into the EU at low prices prompting tariffs against UK goods.

If we intend to bankrupt our own farmers that's fine just as long as the effects don't spill over into the single market.

 

 

 

 

[pig]

2 hours ago, dugsbody said:

The demonstrates the problem that "remain" has faced for the last 50 years. We just want to get on with our lives and do productive things. Europhobes on the other hand have a strong motivation to invest enormous amounts of energy into producing anti-EU propaganda. They have no problem inventing things (lies) to do so. And that means the other side is forced onto the back foot to show each lie is untrue, only for the next one to come along, and then finally circling back to the first one again because it has now been repeated so many times that lots of people still think it is true.

Propaganda works. Nations have know this for a long time.

Yes but I think we can push that analysis further.

A better way to grasp it is that the Buffalo murderer posted a manifesto of lies and drove 200 miles to shoot innocent people. I've little doubt he spiralled down into cuckoo land the way you describe.

The kind of Brexiter you are referencing is that kind of dumb triggered animal with whom rational debate in good faith...well I think the phrase is  'this ain't Kansas anymore.'.

Thats neither a random analogy nor intended to simplistically smear,  as that kind of irrational bad faith debate is the intentional gateway drug to the Far Right (and tbf the Far Left albeit not in this case).

 

[kzb]

28 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

😁😁😁 I knew this would be your response. The above is simplistic tripe you would like to be true but isn't. If you had bothered to read the WTO document you would understand the definition of dumping is far wider. 

The reason why there are quotas and tariffs on NZ is to ensure that its arrival does not disrupt the UK market forcing UK farmers to sell their lamb product into the EU at low prices prompting tariffs against UK goods.

If we intend to bankrupt our own farmers that's fine just as long as the effects don't spill over into the single market.

 

So dumping is exactly how I described it then.  I guess our suppliers will have to make sure they increase the price to EU countries.  That's the EU consumer being hit whilst we enjoy lower prices.  Again, just what I've been saying.

[kzb]

46 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Are you going to fly the onions to the UK because I don't believe they freeze well? If treated carefully they can be stored for up to 2 and a bit months...just in time for them to reach us on the putrid side.

You do realise that it takes between 50 and 60 days to ship from NZ to the UK?

I really do think you are living in some sort of alternate reality. But carry on...must be very frustrating living in lala land...where what you seem to think things are easy to do, but no one actually does it. Everyone else must be idiots eyh

 

I picked on onions as an example, it could've been anything.   Apparently we do indeed import onions from NZ, £4m worth in 2020.  They can be stored refrigerated for a year.

[coypondboy]

3 minutes ago, kzb said:

I picked on onions as an example, it could've been anything.   Apparently we do indeed import onions from NZ, £4m worth in 2020.  They can be stored refrigerated for a year.

looking forward to my NZ Lamb, Aussie steaks and US Chlorinated chicken for the barbie in a few years time, shame we only get to do it a few times a year due to weather.

[IMHAL]

20 minutes ago, kzb said:

I picked on onions as an example, it could've been anything.   Apparently we do indeed import onions from NZ, £4m worth in 2020.  They can be stored refrigerated for a year.

£4m is peanuts - a stocking filler when space has not been fully used up. Why don't we just get rid of all tarriffs from the EU? Surely cheaper than hauling produce from all the way across the world.

The point is that the NZ agreement has been negotiated - it represents the square root of bugger all and will not make a dint in what we have lost. All the other FTA's put together will make scant impact on the loss of the EU.

Brexit 'is done'. What is your solution to the loss of trade and more expensive food? Transport is getting more expensive, sourcing low vaklue produce from across the globe cannot be part of the solution and not good for the environment either.

Edited May 16, 2022 by IMHAL