Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[slawek]

1 hour ago, thecrashingisles said:

If you think back to the G7, we had lots of talk about how the EU and US would put the squeeze on Boris Johnson over Northern Ireland, and it turns out that at the very same event, Johnson was doing a deal with Joe Biden and Scott Morrison to torpedo France's Pacific strategy.

Not much changed in this matter, just 3 days ago 

U.S. House Speaker Pelosi cautions Britain over N.Irish peace deal

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/destroying-nirish-peace-deal-would-make-us-trade-deal-very-unlikely-pelosi-2021-09-17/

[Staffsknot]

24 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

So what is your theory for why the US decided to humiliate them to that extent?

They didn't think. They just took it what is good for US is good for everyone. Same as Afghanistan. The Yanks didn't try and humiliate France that's Scott Morrison being a dick and not communicating it.

His comments on France needs to move on have blown up as India agreed to exclude them from a 3 way talks at the UN. France matters to India, Australia doesn't on defence.

Same as America needs the other regional powers but has brassed them all off. Americans don't think anything beyond America's desires. Same with NATO, same with us.

If you step outside the UK bubble the talk is all US and Australia even though we are supposedly finding a Pacific role through AUKUS - because we are a tiny component in the Pacific having zero assets in theatre.

Ironically Morrison could ****** this up and end up with nothing but US troops in Darwin due to costs.

For America this ensures their vision of Pacific strategy goes forward ( French one was popular with several nations) and US defence companies are in pole position for any cash on offer.

Biden didn't expect this blowback. Morrison is revelling in it - tells you who rchestrated the France kick in the teeth.

Want a Brexit angle - Biden wants to square things with EU and France. He needs them on side. Germany is also seeing him as an a-hole as are several nations smarting from Afghanistan pullout. 

If only there was some issue which he could involve himself in that he shared an interest with the EU...

He needs that EU fleet currently heading to Pacific to not decide it has better things to do, nor stop coordinating with the US. 

Funny old thing this diplomacy, easy to overcompensate

Edited September 20, 2021 by Staffsknot

[pig]

30 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

So what is your theory for why the US decided to humiliate them to that extent?

What do you think this is  - an episode of Hollywood Wives ? 😂

After 2 days of radio I'm now a geopolitical expert and can confirm this has nothing to do with France or the UK or even Australia, this is all US and China.

[Cocha]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/17/empty-shelves-covid-brexit-britain-lorry-drivers

"Successive governments have used immigration as a wages policy, to put downward pressure on earnings rather than tackle this tendency to oligopoly. Now the government wants immigration to stop, the problems it papered over have been exposed".

Indeed. Some of us voted to address this, others voted to continue to benefit from the exploitation of others.

[thecrashingisles]

23 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

They didn't think. They just took it what is good for US is good for everyone. Same as Afghanistan. The Yanks didn't try and humiliate France that's Scott Morrison being a dick and not communicating it.

His comments on France needs to move on have blown up as India agreed to exclude them from a 3 way talks at the UN. France matters to India, Australia doesn't on defence.

Same as America needs the other regional powers but has brassed them all off. Americans don't think anything beyond America's desires. Same with NATO, same with us.

If you step outside the UK bubble the talk is all US and Australia even though we are supposedly finding a Pacific role through AUKUS - because we are a tiny component in the Pacific having zero assets in theatre.

Ironically Morrison could ****** this up and end up with nothing but US troops in Darwin due to costs.

For America this ensures their vision of Pacific strategy goes forward ( French one was popular with several nations) and US defence companies are in pole position for any cash on offer.

Biden didn't expect this blowback. Morrison is revelling in it - tells you who rchestrated the France kick in the teeth.

Want a Brexit angle - Biden wants to square things with EU and France. He needs them on side. Germany is also seeing him as an a-hole as are several nations smarting from Afghanistan pullout. 

If only there was some issue which he could involve himself in that he shared an interest with the EU...

He needs that EU fleet currently heading to Pacific to not decide it has better things to do, nor stop coordinating with the US. 

Funny old thing this diplomacy, easy to overcompensate

Germany and Australia just signed a new military cooperation agreement today, which is a pretty good way of showing what the Germans really think of France’s Norma Desmond act.

[Staffsknot]

11 minutes ago, pig said:

What do you think this is  - an episode of Hollywood Wives ? 😂

After 2 days of radio I'm now a geopolitical expert and can confirm this has nothing to do with France or the UK or even Australia, this is all US and China.

Yup and Chinese response was phone the Russians and double the order for Kamov Ka-52k Kandrans - 36 of the navalised helicopter gunship with the anti-ship missile. Think Apache but capable of killing ships over the horizon too.

But I hear Clara is bitching about Candice so could be that too

[Staffsknot]

2 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

Germany and Australia just signed a new military cooperation agreement today, which is a pretty good way of showing what the Germans really think of France’s Norma Desmond act.

Do you not pay attention - Rheinmetall has a contract to build the ASLAV replacement in the Boxer system ( which we are back buying after our on / off muppetry). They were trying the bitching routine on that deal too and Yanks weren't happy as they thought they'd get in as the GD Canada replacement. Oz procurement needing helping out as the turret they want to fit may not work. Lancer turret now being made to work by Rheinmetall Oz.

Oh I forgot you took an interest like 4 days ago thinking there was some Brexit we are the champions moment.

[thecrashingisles]

5 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

Do you not pay attention - Rheinmetall has a contract to build the ASLAV replacement in the Boxer system ( which we are back buying after our on / off muppetry). They were trying the bitching routine on that deal too and Yanks weren't happy as they thought they'd get in as the GD Canada replacement. Oz procurement needing helping out as the turret they want to fit may not work. Lancer turret now being made to work by Rheinmetall Oz.

Oh I forgot you took an interest like 4 days ago thinking there was some Brexit we are the champions moment.

It’s not a “Brexit we are the champions moment”, but it is a sign that the geopolitical assumptions about Brexit’s effect on US policy towards Europe were totally wrong. The US has absolutely zero interest in bolstering the pretensions of the EU.

[Staffsknot]

19 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

It’s not a “Brexit we are the champions moment”, but it is a sign that the geopolitical assumptions about Brexit’s effect on US policy towards Europe were totally wrong. The US has absolutely zero interest in bolstering the pretensions of the EU.

It has ****** all to do with Brexit so please step back and stop making yourself look daft.

If we were in the EU this would have happened. Bit like when we tried to sell harrier & sea harrier to NATO allies post Falklands the Yanks vetoed it getting an F for Fighter designation and lumped it as GFA (ground attack) which killed it dead.

They then flogged the Boeing collab AV-8B to Spain & Thailand after taking it for US Marines.

They have screwed us over many times. 5.56mm calibre was almost our post war choice pushing for NATO. Yanks wanted 7.62mm as we had a headstart - lookup EM-2 it looks scarily like the L85 but was in 1950s. They killed it.

TSR programme killed by US saying unmanned aircraft future. Tech was used in concorde which the Americans tried to kill as a programme too.

They refused to let Australia fit German made combat control sys to Collins class subs to make them more effective as US weapons, tying them to US system.

The Americans do what is in America's sole interest. Selling into Europe means more than selling into UK.

You'd do well to remember this rule of thumb when assessing what America does and why.

As for us, we are the given - they can screw us over all week but if we don't put out on Sunday you bet your ass we can pack our bags. We have few options and that's why they know we come when they whistle

Edited September 20, 2021 by Staffsknot

[dugsbody]

15 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

The US has absolutely zero interest in bolstering the pretensions of the EU.

What about bolstering the pretensions of the UK?

[thecrashingisles]

12 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

It has ****** all to do with Brexit so please step back and stop making yourself look daft.

If we were in the EU this would have happened. Bit like when we tried to sell harrier & sea harrier to NATO allies post Falklands the Yanks vetoed it getting an F for Fighter designation and lumped it as GFA (ground attack) which killed it dead.

They then flogged the Boeing collab AV-8B to Spain & Thailand after taking it for US Marines.

They have screwed us over many times. 5.56mm calibre was almost our post war choice pushing for NATO. Yanks wanted 7.62mm as we had a headstart - lookup EM-2 it looks scarily like the L85 but was in 1950s. They killed it.

TSR programme killed by US saying unmanned aircraft future. Tech was used in concorde which the Americans tried to kill as a programme too.

They refused to let Australia fit German made combat control sys to Collins class subs to make them more effective as US weapons, tying them to US system.

The Americans do what is in America's sole interest. Selling into Europe means more than selling into UK.

You'd do well to remember this rule of thumb when assessing what America does and why.

As for us, we are the given - they can screw us over all week but if we don't put out on Sunday you bet your ass we can pack our bags. We have few options and that's why they know we come when they whistle

If we were in the EU it would never have been presented this way.
 

The times they are a-changing, and we are not in the same world as we were when the US was a young superpower or when global politics were defined by the struggle between competing western ideologies.

[Staffsknot]

21 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

If we were in the EU it would never have been presented this way.
 

The times they are a-changing, and we are not in the same world as we were when the US was a young superpower or when global politics were defined by the struggle between competing western ideologies.

You mean we wouldn't have been trying to show off we are in the club while everyone ignores us and talks about the implications of the US & Australia acting the way they did?

Newsflash we got lent on to send an aircraft carrier to the Pacific. Australia won't build one but Japan is converting two helicopter carriers by year end and S Korea will have one by end of decade. How important are we then to America in the Pacific?

Times they are a changing and the Pacific and Pacific nations matter more to US.

The presentation was by Australia. You should read more than UK news to see how nobody gives a shit about us in this debacle. Hell we should thank the French defence minister for cancelling a meeting with Wallace this week or we'd be really seen as insignificant. We are seen as a 5th wheel in this by France. I mean just contemplate that, we didn't even earn a Gallic shrug. 

Stop scrabbling to find something in this that makes your newfound Brexiteerness seem vindicated

 

Edited September 20, 2021 by Staffsknot

[dugsbody]

2 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

So what is your theory for why the US decided to humiliate them to that extent?

Are you suggesting the UK leaned on the US to humiliate France. Reading all your posts on this matter, that is my guess where your thinking lies, otherwise indeed, "why would the US humiliate France"? (I am not sure they did, but leaving that aside).

So, if that is the case, I guess we are seeing the emergence of geopolitical warfare from the US and UK against the EU. I hope the EU prepares accordingly. Not a very nice neighbour to have huh.

So much for "hate the EU, love Europe". That went out the window right smart.

[Horseradish]

The US still kind of likes the UK in the pocket doesn't it? Lots of military bases here, keep an eye on Europe. Handy staging gound for the rest of the continental landmass. Plus there's the "special relationship", five eyes, etc. Times are changing. Have you ever read Peter Zeihan's stuff? His take is that the UK will end up in NAFTA.

[thecrashingisles]

19 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

You mean we wouldn't have been trying to show off we are in the club while everyone ignores us and talks about the implications of the US & Australia acting the way they did?

Newsflash we got lent on to send an aircraft carrier to the Pacific. Australia won't build one but Japan is converting two helicopter carriers by year end and S Korea will have one by end of decade. How important are we then to America in the Pacific?

Times they are a changing and the Pacific and Pacific nations matter more to US.

The presentation was by Australia. You should read more than UK news to see how nobody gives a shit about us in this debacle. Hell we should thank the French defence minister for cancelling a meeting with Wallace this week or we'd be really seen as insignificant. We are seen as a 5th wheel in this by France. I mean just contemplate that, we didn't even earn a Gallic shrug. 

Stop scrabbling to find something in this that makes your newfound Brexiteerness seem vindicated

Do you seriously take at face value the idea that France thinks we are so insignificant we don't even merit a rebuke?

If it's true that "Pacific nations matter more to the US", then the question is whether the US has any real interest any more in providing free defence against Russia to continental Europe? France says it wants the EU to have strategic autonomy, so let them get on with it, but the US won't underpin France's global empire.

[14stFlyer]

11 minutes ago, Horseradish said:

His take is that the UK will end up in NAFTA.

Certainly our recent (last 50 years) societal changes seem to be going more the way of individualistic North America and less collectivist Europe and Asia.  So perhaps our geopolitical and economic interests should follow?  
 

Personally, I still see our future as being a part of a collectivist Europe in some form, but I now realise how many of us do not. 

[Staffsknot]

2 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

Do you seriously take at face value the idea that France thinks we are so insignificant we don't even merit a rebuke?

If it's true that "Pacific nations matter more to the US", then the question is whether the US has any real interest any more in providing free defence against Russia to continental Europe? France says it wants the EU to have strategic autonomy, so let them get on with it, but the US won't underpin France's global empire.

You don't seem to have much knowledge of the Pacific and skipped that bit about how the US regularly does Pacific joint operations with France precisely for defence of those regions. You keep desperately asserting things that can't be backed up in the real world.

Now America does not want out of Europe because once out they aren't getting back in and as explained god knows how many pages before when this America out of Europe rubbish was spouted the bases in Europe are vital hubs to jump off to force project - Ramstein AFB for instance.

You can't just load up a shedload of M1A1s and fly them halfway across the Pacific to reinforce allies. Okinawa & Oz are about as forward as the US bases get that wouldn't be under immediate danger. They could also use Australian base in Malaysia ( Butterworth).

For reference you get 1 tank per C-17 if you need to count. Putting 16 tanks into theatre will tie up 10% of the US C-17 fleet and you don't want to fly that kit slowly past China, so might be an idea to stage it out of Europe and Middle East. NY is also one of the biggest military zones in US so your kit is on the wrong side of the US. Marines lost their tanks to budget cuts.

 

[thecrashingisles]

1 minute ago, Staffsknot said:

You don't seem to have much knowledge of the Pacific and skipped that bit about how the US regularly does Pacific joint operations with France precisely for defence of those regions. You keep desperately asserting things that can't be backed up in the real world.

Now America does not want out of Europe because once out they aren't getting back in and as explained god knows how many pages before when this America out of Europe rubbish was spouted the bases in Europe are vital hubs to jump off to force project - Ramstein AFB for instance.

You can't just load up a shedload of M1A1s and fly them halfway across the Pacific to reinforce allies. Okinawa & Oz are about as forward as the US bases get that wouldn't be under immediate danger. They could also use Australian base in Malaysia ( Butterworth).

For reference you get 1 tank per C-17 if you need to count. Putting 16 tanks into theatre will tie up 10% of the US C-17 fleet and you don't want to fly that kit slowly past China, so might be an idea to stage it out of Europe and Middle East. NY is also one of the biggest military zones in US so your kit is on the wrong side of the US. Marines lost their tanks to budget cuts.

If the US doesn't have the intention of relegating its relationship with France or taking France down a peg, why has it handled this deal in the way that it has and turned it into the beginnings of a global version of the special relationship?

[pig]

10 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

If the US doesn't have the intention of relegating its relationship with France or taking France down a peg, why has it handled this deal in the way that it has and turned it into the beginnings of a global version of the special relationship?

Interesting, so now the claim is that the US has based their geopolitical struggle with China around pleasing fecktard Leavers lol?

[Staffsknot]

30 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

If the US doesn't have the intention of relegating its relationship with France or taking France down a peg, why has it handled this deal in the way that it has and turned it into the beginnings of a global version of the special relationship?

You know I can just stop writing because you don't believe in expertise now you turned Brexity.

The US isn't trying to take France down a peg outside a Brexiteer wet dream and to say so is frankly bizarre and more than a little naive.

If France kicks off and skips Australia and America then Uncle Sam now needs to protect Eastern Aus. Because New Caledonia helped in that role and those shiny subs and large amounts of Australian assets are on Western Aus protecting their oil and gas + trade route.

They kick off and tell the Djiboutians US should go and they'll tear up that 20 yr lease and boot them out if France ponies up the same cash. Djibouti is ruled by a Somali clan and Yanks don't spend in their shops like the boys from the French demi-brigade nor provide air cover and kit.

But you won't read any of this as you just think everything is Brexit victory or EU being smacked.

In the real world France has formed a lynchpin western flank to the US eastern flank and Oz southern zone. If they spit their dummy that western flank is us and the US Marines had to put planes on HMS Queen Elizabeth so we had 18 to sail into the Pacific. France can put 40 in the air from Charles de Gaulle now.

Oh and a final point - after flogging F35s to many nations including us, Japan, S Korea and Australia the Yanks are having second thoughts about completing their full acquisition as it has underwhelmed and they want a new model to replace the F-16 ASAP. So alarming it has caused the RAAF to pause decision on buying more than the agreed 72 ( of which 30 delivered ) as they have option for 100 ( more than us)

If the USAAF bins F-35 the USN & USMC may follow and that rather stuffs us all with the future costs. It and F-22 are being viewed as too many issues and not the promised capability improvement. The spiralling cost & delays has also meant hits to other projects.

What was that about screwing over neighbours and French being bad at projects? Before you answer see USS Gerald Ford carrier is 2 years late as the electromagnetic catapult system keeps breaking.

[Staffsknot]

47 minutes ago, pig said:

Interesting, so now the claim is that the US has based their geopolitical struggle with China around pleasing fecktard Leavers lol?

Its just another unicorn. If it all kicked off and China sank HMS Queen Liz then that is most of our involvement done for a long while or very junior role. It would be like HMS Prince of Wales & Repulse sinking in '41 singalling us being kicked out of the region.

The Yanks have our Indian Ocean base already.

We really don't matter in the Pacific but Brexiteers think this signals us getting Tahiti or something

[thecrashingisles]

Just now, Staffsknot said:

Its just another unicorn. If it all kicked off and China sank HMS Queen Liz then that is most of our involvement done for a long while or very junior role. It would be like HMS Prince of Wales & Repulse sinking in '41 singalling us being kicked out of the region.

The Yanks have our Indian Ocean base already.

We really don't matter in the Pacific but Brexiteers think this signals us getting Tahiti or something

It depends how you define "we". I do think that France's territorial footprint will be smaller in 5-10 years than it is now.

[Staffsknot]

43 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

It depends how you define "we". I do think that France's territorial footprint will be smaller in 5-10 years than it is now.

No it doesn't matter how you define we unlesd you are not part of Britain. We was the UK as well you know.

You can think what you like but you seem not to have chucked any evidence for that.

The UK may well be smaller territorially in 5 - 10 years time depending how things go in NI & Scotland and there's a lot more basis in reality for that than yoursweeping 'I think'.

New Caledonia has rejected independence twice and the Kanaks lack the numbers to push it through. 

Again Brexiteer fantasy island once more everybody will break free of EU countries. They could be left with Wallis & Fortuna and its still more of a Pacific nation than Britain with Pitcairn.

Just give up on this angle its embarrassing it makes you look very silly.

 

[slawek]

8 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

If the US doesn't have the intention of relegating its relationship with France or taking France down a peg, why has it handled this deal in the way that it has and turned it into the beginnings of a global version of the special relationship?

The US doesn't care, it was and still is very arrogant. It treats others as tools, use them and then dump them if not needed anymore. There is no a global version of the special relationship. The UK simply offered to transfer their nuclear sub technology to Australia, which was in interest of the US. Nothing more, nothing less. 

Trade deal with UK is not a priority for Biden, Boris Johnson accepts

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-joe-biden-trade-b1923660.html

[thecrashingisles]

52 minutes ago, slawek said:

The US doesn't care, it was and still is very arrogant. It treats others as tools, use them and then dump them if not needed anymore. There is no a global version of the special relationship. The UK simply offered to transfer their nuclear sub technology to Australia, which was in interest of the US. Nothing more, nothing less. 

Trade deal with UK is not a priority for Biden, Boris Johnson accepts

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-joe-biden-trade-b1923660.html

The importance of trade deals is overstated. China built up its economic position trading mainly on WTO terms.