Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[dryrot]

13 minutes ago, slawek said:

The cost would probably go up from 9.5bln to around 10-15bln. mostly because of losing the rebate (this is on you).

It would still be significantly less than the cost of Brexit, which is around 100bln. 

Why not say the cost of Brexit is £500trillion? You just make these figures up - Remember Project Fear predictions in 2016? 😀

Whereas EU country contributions are real money...

[24gray24]

18 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

And let's not forget still peanuts compared to the cost of leaving the EU. 

It won't be peanuts. 

13 minutes ago, slawek said:

As for now the plan is financially sound. Germany is against fiscal transfers and they will resist going that way at least for now. So your scenario is possible but not given. 

Personally i think there should be more fiscal transfers.  The EU should become a full federal state. 

 the EU becomes will have to become responsible for all the nation states debts in a federal state. 

To do that they have to stop places like italy spending money. 

So you end up with a remote bureaucracy spending money and handing you the bill. 

And the end of variety and accountability.  

Brussels becoming like Washington. 

It's no panacea. 

To make any system work, you have to stop the parasites at the top sponging ever increasing amounts. Fiddling about with constitutions is often a red herring.  

[kzb]

3 hours ago, Bob8 said:

More of what for what?

Go back and find out what it was about.

[slawek]

Just now, dryrot said:

Why not say the cost of Brexit is £500trillion? You just make these figures up - Remember Project Fear predictions in 2016? 😀

Whereas EU country contributions are real money...

So far

banks moving 1 trillion of assets - 20bln/pa

10k high paid city jobs lost - 5bln/pa

City losing trade in shares and IR derivatives - 5-10bln/pa

1 mln immigrants leaving - 20bln/pa

exports of goods to the EU down 20% - 40bln/pa

cost of Brexit red tape - 15bln/pa

exports of services to the EU down - ????

etc

Treasury estimate 6% hit to GDP, that 120bln/pa. They were right.

[slawek]

7 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

It won't be peanuts. 

 the EU becomes will have to become responsible for all the nation states debts in a federal state. 

To do that they have to stop places like italy spending money. 

So you end up with a remote bureaucracy spending money and handing you the bill. 

And the end of variety and accountability.  

Brussels becoming like Washington. 

It's no panacea. 

To make any system work, you have to stop the parasites at the top sponging ever increasing amounts. Fiddling about with constitutions is often a red herring.  

It would require a better control how money are spent. The EU is just creating a force to prosecute corruption. People living in countries with high corruption will welcome the move as they are fed up with it.

[kzb]

23 minutes ago, slawek said:

The cost would probably go up from 9.5bln to around 10-15bln. mostly because of losing the rebate (this is on you).

It would still be significantly less than the cost of Brexit, which is around 100bln. 

Actually I found out they reversed the decision on no rebates last July.

But when you factor in the Recovery Fund and the increased budget it is inevitable UK would be paying in a lot more.

[24gray24]

Just now, slawek said:

It would require a better control how money are spent. The EU is just creating a force to prosecute corruption. People living in countries with high corruption will welcome the move as they are fed up with it.

Federal taxes? Federal spending?. A coalition of the feckless deciding how to spend germany's money? 

My guess is Germany would rather let the south go bust and depopulate if it were not for fear of revolution.  

So the Brussels dream of a fully federal state might come to nothing. 

[slawek]

Just now, 24gray24 said:

Federal taxes? Federal spending?. A coalition of the feckless deciding how to spend germany's money? 

My guess is Germany would rather let the south go bust and depopulate if it were not for fear of revolution.  

So the Brussels dream of a fully federal state might come to nothing. 

It was/is/will be up to the member states (including Germany) what will happen with the EU.

It is the same with California money in the US or London in the UK.  

[slawek]

8 minutes ago, kzb said:

Actually I found out they reversed the decision on no rebates last July.

But when you factor in the Recovery Fund and the increased budget it is inevitable UK would be paying in a lot more.

What decision on rebates? The UK had its own unique rebate. 

More yes, a lot depends if you think a few billions is a lot, but definitely much less relatively to the cost of Brexit.  

[Bob8]

37 minutes ago, kzb said:

Go back and find out what it was about.

I am sure we were net contributors to EU coffers.

I am also sure, because I am not retarded, that we benefitted financially overall from being in the EU.

Of course, there will be some benefits from not being in the EU. The major ones are, apparently, a big secret.

[24gray24]

17 minutes ago, slawek said:

It was/is/will be up to the member states (including Germany) what will happen with the EU.

It is the same with California money in the US or London in the UK.  

New agreements can be made at any time.  

The eu wants transfer payments every year and Germany doesn't.  That is the current position. 

That can be changed, in a crisis. 

We'll have to see how this Brussels ambition plays out. 

[slawek]

4 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

New agreements can be made at any time.  

The eu wants transfer payments every year and Germany doesn't.  That is the current position. 

That can be changed, in a crisis. 

We'll have to see how this Brussels ambition plays out. 

You still don't understand. Brussels is just a tool, the decisions are made by members. It is up to them what will happen. 

[yelims]

7 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

New agreements can be made at any time.  

The eu wants transfer payments every year and Germany doesn't.  That is the current position. 

That can be changed, in a crisis. 

We'll have to see how this Brussels ambition plays out. 

So this is why Germany has a better economy that actually produces stuff people want and standard of living for people than UK, and reasonable house prices without runaway HPC

[24gray24]

48 minutes ago, slawek said:

So far

banks moving 1 trillion of assets - 20bln/pa

10k high paid city jobs lost - 5bln/pa

City losing trade in shares and IR derivatives - 5-10bln/pa

1 mln immigrants leaving - 20bln/pa

exports of goods to the EU down 20% - 40bln/pa

cost of Brexit red tape - 15bln/pa

exports of services to the EU down - ????

etc

Treasury estimate 6% hit to GDP, that 120bln/pa. They were right.

Costs are easier to count than opportunities. 

Letting Debenham go bust cost x jobs and y millions. And no one can say what the value will be of what replaces it yet. 

But that is no reason to save Debenhams.

Brexit isn't going to be reversed. It's going to go on and get more and more divergent. Losses in your column will continue to mount until trade is a fraction of what it was.

Yet life will go on. And few will miss Debenhams or Brussels.   

[dugsbody]

30 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

I am sure we were net contributors to EU coffers.

I am also sure, because I am not retarded, that we benefitted financially overall from being in the EU.

Of course, there will be some benefits from not being in the EU. The major ones are, apparently, a big secret.

Not a big secret at all. The only benefit that most brexiters cared about is ending freedom of movement. Not having to allow Europeans the right to live here is a big benefit to brexiters.

They've broadcast this loudly and clearly.

[kzb]

23 minutes ago, slawek said:

What decision on rebates? The UK had its own unique rebate. 

More yes, a lot depends if you think a few billions is a lot, but definitely much less relatively to the cost of Brexit.  

Other countries got, and now will get, rebates.

Also we have to differentiate between government expenditure (EU contributions) and "GDP".

State spending is on services for us all, and EU contributions impact those directly.  Giving (say) £25 billion to the EU is 4-5 pence in the pound on income tax or 3-4% on VAT.   In fact it's worse than that, because it's borrowed money, so future generations will be paying the interest on it in addition to these sums.

"GDP", well you have to ask "who's GDP ?"  

[slawek]

4 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

Costs are easier to count than opportunities. 

Letting Debenham go bust cost x jobs and y millions. And no one can say what the value will be of what replaces it yet. 

But that is no reason to save Debenhams.

Brexit isn't going to be reversed. It's going to go on and get more and more divergent. Losses in your column will continue to mount until trade is a fraction of what it was.

Yet life will go on. And few will miss Debenhams or Brussels.   

Not quite the biggest Brexit gain so far is the Australia deal, which will boost GDP by 0.02% (0.4bln) but after 15 years. 

The true is there is no real gains, after 5 years nobody could find them.

Brexit will be reversed because joining the EU is the biggest Brexit opportunity. 

[slawek]

5 minutes ago, kzb said:

Other countries got, and now will get, rebates.

Also we have to differentiate between government expenditure (EU contributions) and "GDP".

State spending is on services for us all, and EU contributions impact those directly.  Giving (say) £25 billion to the EU is 4-5 pence in the pound on income tax or 3-4% on VAT.   In fact it's worse than that, because it's borrowed money, so future generations will be paying the interest on it in addition to these sums.

"GDP", well you have to ask "who's GDP ?"  

The EU doesn't want rebates anymore after Brexit. 

https://www.france24.com/en/20191009-no-more-rebates-in-eu-budget-after-brexit-commission-urges

If you want to count EU contributions using the UK budget, you need express gains from the EU membership relatively to the UK budget too. It just the change of units, the EU contribution are still around 10 percent of the gains.  

[24gray24]

6 minutes ago, slawek said:

You still don't understand. Brussels is just a tool, the decisions are made by members. It is up to them what will happen. 

 As long as Germany has control of its own money, Brussels is thwarted. 

So what if 20 members want to spend germany's money on this that or the other? 

But... if they can get agreement to annual transfer payments to the south...

5 minutes ago, slawek said:

 

Brexit will be reversed because joining the EU is the biggest Brexit opportunity. 

We'll see. 

I suspect you'll be totting up losses in the Europe column as well soon enough. 

There's a way the game of tit for tat (or beggar thy neighbour) develops it's own momentum. 

[slawek]

1 minute ago, 24gray24 said:

 As long as Germany has control of its own money, Brussels is thwarted. 

So what if 20 members want to spend germany's money on this that or the other? 

But... if they can get agreement to annual transfer payments to the south...

We'll see. 

I suspect you'll be totting up losses in the Europe column as well soon enough. 

There's a way the game of tit for tat (or beggar thy neighbour) develops it's own momentum. 

That is what BJ is playing right now. As they say "You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time". It will end at some point and the big EU opportunity will be still there. 

[IMHAL]

35 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

Costs are easier to count than opportunities. 

LOL🤣. Especially when the opportunities are far and few inbetween.

As an aside. @KZB is good at counting the costs of EU membership but useless at acknowledging the benefits...which are becoming increasingly obvious...because they are now becoming losses. What is being registered are the real losses of leaving the EU....it's always useful to know what you have lost...just as it is useful to know what you have traded for those losses...which is none too obvious. 

35 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

 

Letting Debenham go bust cost x jobs and y millions. And no one can say what the value will be of what replaces it yet. 

By that logic we might as well hit the self destruct button and totally colapse the economy...'because we can't say what the value will be of what replaces it'

Actually, it is this totally imbecilic logic that underpins Brexit. 

35 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

But that is no reason to save Debenhams.

Or the fishing industry or the farming sector or the banking sector etc etc. Whch subversive foreign agent do you work for again?

35 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

Brexit isn't going to be reversed. It's going to go on and get more and more divergent. Losses in your column will continue to mount until trade is a fraction of what it was.

Hooray, you get it - but \/ 'life will go on'. Whoopy doo..as it does in the poorer countries...that must be the opportunity that you are talking about....we can all be poorer....what a magnificant opportunity that is.

35 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

Yet life will go on. And few will miss Debenhams or Brussels.   

But the people who rely on trade to our biggest customer will miss their jobs, salary and ability to provide for their family. I guess they can be thankful to Brexit for 'this opportunity'.

Edited July 6, 2021 by IMHAL

[rollover]

Brussels will have "no choice but to step up" legal proceedings against the U.K. if it continues to violate its Brexit agreement with the European Union, European Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič said on Tuesday.

The EU last week agreed to grant an extension at the U.K.'s request to a grace period covering the movement of chilled meats into Northern Ireland. Šefčovič said Tuesday it was a "positive development" that U.K. had come to an agreement with the EU on chilled meats, but he warned London "trust is two way street."

He said biggest challenge for the European Union was to "rebuild trust and realign our relationship with the U.K," there remained a "lack of implementation of these agreements by our partner, the U.K., so we need to see the pathway to comply as soon as possible. We need to be able to trust the U.K. to live up to its international obligations."

Politico

[kzb]

24 minutes ago, slawek said:

The EU doesn't want rebates anymore after Brexit. 

https://www.france24.com/en/20191009-no-more-rebates-in-eu-budget-after-brexit-commission-urges

If you want to count EU contributions using the UK budget, you need express gains from the EU membership relatively to the UK budget too. It just the change of units, the EU contribution are still around 10 percent of the gains.  

Yes definitely the original plan was to do away with rebates.  I've said that before on here myself.  But some of them must've kicked off about it and it turns out Germany et al will be getting rebates.  This was decided at an extraordinary meeting last July.

Rebates aren't that great anyhow.  What you get in a rebate one year is taken off EU spending in your country in future years.

When you say "the UK budget", that normally means the UK Government budget.  The EU is an item of UK government spending (or at least tax revenue diversion away from the UK and into the EU, which amounts to the same thing). 

Including the Recovery Fund, there can be no doubt that our contribution would've increased substantially, even if we still got a rebate.

 

[slawek]

13 minutes ago, kzb said:

Yes definitely the original plan was to do away with rebates.  I've said that before on here myself.  But some of them must've kicked off about it and it turns out Germany et al will be getting rebates.  This was decided at an extraordinary meeting last July.

Rebates aren't that great anyhow.  What you get in a rebate one year is taken off EU spending in your country in future years.

When you say "the UK budget", that normally means the UK Government budget.  The EU is an item of UK government spending (or at least tax revenue diversion away from the UK and into the EU, which amounts to the same thing). 

Including the Recovery Fund, there can be no doubt that our contribution would've increased substantially, even if we still got a rebate.

 

Not true, Recovery Fund has no impact on contributions. The increases could be a few billions, 0.1-0.3% GNI.

[pig]

44 minutes ago, rollover said:

Brussels will have "no choice but to step up" legal proceedings against the U.K. if it continues to violate its Brexit agreement with the European Union, European Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič said on Tuesday.

The EU last week agreed to grant an extension at the U.K.'s request to a grace period covering the movement of chilled meats into Northern Ireland. Šefčovič said Tuesday it was a "positive development" that U.K. had come to an agreement with the EU on chilled meats, but he warned London "trust is two way street."

He said biggest challenge for the European Union was to "rebuild trust and realign our relationship with the U.K," there remained a "lack of implementation of these agreements by our partner, the U.K., so we need to see the pathway to comply as soon as possible. We need to be able to trust the U.K. to live up to its international obligations."

Politico

Brexit is such a fecking waste of everybody’s time and energy.