Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[zugzwang]

Brexit means more migrants!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8874717/Boris-Johnson-scraps-target-lower-net-migration-tens-thousands.html

Boris Johnson has scrapped the target to lower net migration to tens of thousands as he slashes the £35,800 salary cap for skilled UK migrants.

The plan, which ditches the aim put forward by Theresa May's government, was announced in a 507-page rulebook on Thursday.  

Under the new proposal, the cap needed for skilled migrants to stay in the UK without any time restrictions will be reduced to £25,600. 

It comes as Mr Johnson pursues an Australian-style points-based immigration system, which will take earnings into account along with a myriad of other factors, and comes into effect from January next year.

 

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

Brexit just keeps getting better and better.
Going to be extremely climactic between Xmas and the new year,
I just don't know how I'm going to manage 😱 😷 as the cliff edge approaches.

[captainb]

Who needs a £34billion Aerospace industry - when you have FISH!

Has anyone found out about how we are getting on with the gold, sorry fish... im worried its gone quiet for a couple of weeks and the cod might get away.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54692949

Edited October 26, 2020 by captainb

[Confusion of VIs]

 

I have just realised, that in one area, Brexit may be advantageous....  Eggs, or Oeufs.

The French like eggs with white shells and will pay a premium price for them, whereas the British tend to prefer brown shells.

From next year, it will likely cost the French more to buy our white eggs so we may see them in our shops again .

It's the little things that matter.

 

Good timing, there is starting to be a move to white eggs here on animal welfare grounds.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2020/mar/09/beak-trimming-and-brutality-is-it-time-to-stop-buying-brown-eggs

At last we have found the Brexit dividend.

[thehowler]

 

Has anyone found out about how we are getting on with the gold, sorry fish... im worried its gone quiet for a couple of weeks and the cod might get away.

It's gone quiet because both sides have stopped leaking to their favoured journos. We're in the tunnel, without saying we're in the tunnel.

Outline of a deal announced on Friday, maybe, then some more jostling first week or two of Nov, or they might not even bother with that.

Ports/travel disruption in January, but after the looming-catastrophe press coverage of the last six months and the pandemic restrictions I don't think it will shock many people. Then we'll have six months of traders changing their supply lines - no more bulk shipments of grapes from South Africa to Rotterdam, will be safer/quicker to ship the UK share direct to Liverpool or somewhere away from the Channel etc. - and VAT/other hassles. The changes will be seen as obstacles initially, then prices will shift around a bit and other suppliers will come in, doubt most Brits will notice a huge hike in their food bills. We'll begin to see whether more old companies leave/relocate than new companies move in and learn how the immigration proposal around points/skills works out. Each month the behemoth Albion will adjust a little more to the new normal and the revealing quirks and crevices of how to turn a profit will start to shift how people do business in the UK. Any company in NI that produces locally will be able to sell into the EU and the UK without impediment and take advantage of any new trade deals - deffo from the UK, under discussion as to whether they'll get the new EU deals, though I think they will. Will have to wait and see whether NI profits from this duality.

The changes will be slow to come at first but this union will be on a very different trajectory from now by the time we get to 2024, the likely date of the next GE.

[rollover]

 

It's gone quiet because both sides have stopped leaking to their favoured journos. We're in the tunnel, without saying we're in the tunnel.

Outline of a deal announced on Friday, maybe, then some more jostling first week or two of Nov, or they might not even bother with that.

Ports/travel disruption in January, but after the looming-catastrophe press coverage of the last six months and the pandemic restrictions I don't think it will shock many people. Then we'll have six months of traders changing their supply lines - no more bulk shipments of grapes from South Africa to Rotterdam, will be safer/quicker to ship the UK share direct to Liverpool or somewhere away from the Channel etc. - and VAT/other hassles. The changes will be seen as obstacles initially, then prices will shift around a bit and other suppliers will come in, doubt most Brits will notice a huge hike in their food bills. We'll begin to see whether more old companies leave/relocate than new companies move in and learn how the immigration proposal around points/skills works out. Each month the behemoth Albion will adjust a little more to the new normal and the revealing quirks and crevices of how to turn a profit will start to shift how people do business in the UK. Any company in NI that produces locally will be able to sell into the EU and the UK without impediment and take advantage of any new trade deals - deffo from the UK, under discussion as to whether they'll get the new EU deals, though I think they will. Will have to wait and see whether NI profits from this duality.

The changes will be slow to come at first but this union will be on a very different trajectory from now by the time we get to 2024, the likely date of the next GE.

What makes you so Brexit optimistic or Brexit overly optimistic?

I think Brexiters losing touch with what is realistic and this is just further Brexit panic U-turn.

The UK will probably get a fish, lots of fish, more than is needed but more than the fish UK need a deal and come to an agreement with the EU right now.

[captainb]

 

It's gone quiet because both sides have stopped leaking to their favoured journos. We're in the tunnel, without saying we're in the tunnel.

Outline of a deal announced on Friday, maybe, then some more jostling first week or two of Nov, or they might not even bother with that.

Ports/travel disruption in January, but after the looming-catastrophe press coverage of the last six months and the pandemic restrictions I don't think it will shock many people. Then we'll have six months of traders changing their supply lines - no more bulk shipments of grapes from South Africa to Rotterdam, will be safer/quicker to ship the UK share direct to Liverpool or somewhere away from the Channel etc. - and VAT/other hassles. The changes will be seen as obstacles initially, then prices will shift around a bit and other suppliers will come in, doubt most Brits will notice a huge hike in their food bills. We'll begin to see whether more old companies leave/relocate than new companies move in and learn how the immigration proposal around points/skills works out. Each month the behemoth Albion will adjust a little more to the new normal and the revealing quirks and crevices of how to turn a profit will start to shift how people do business in the UK. Any company in NI that produces locally will be able to sell into the EU and the UK without impediment and take advantage of any new trade deals - deffo from the UK, under discussion as to whether they'll get the new EU deals, though I think they will. Will have to wait and see whether NI profits from this duality.

The changes will be slow to come at first but this union will be on a very different trajectory from now by the time we get to 2024, the likely date of the next GE.

It would be bizarre if they allowed an NI in and out situation. Although i can perfectly see a scenario where its too hard to do anything else.

Still.. the border towns on both sides love a bit of smuggiling

 

[OnionTerror]

 

 

[pig]

 

 

 

Compare contrast:

 

 

[rollover]

Government blasted in soy sauce row as Gove hits out at Wales over calls to DROP fishing demands

THE government has been accused of "exaggerations and mistruths" in a row over soy sauce.

The Department of International Trade tweeted on Tuesday night that the salty sauce will be "made cheaper thanks to our trade deal with Japan". But trade experts waded in and pointed out the agreement would only prevent the condiment from getting more expensive under a no-deal Brexit than it currently is.

This comes as Michael Gove hit out at Wales over calls for the UK to drop Brexit fishing demands.

In a letter to Jeremy Miles, Wales' Minister for European Transition, Mr Gove wrote: "I am afraid we strongly disagree with your premise that we should `back down' on fisheries.

thesun

[IMHAL]

 

Compare contrast:

 

 

Didn't realise Gove was a make-up artist.

[dugsbody]

 

The Department of International Trade Ministry for Truth tweeted on Tuesday night that the salty sauce will be "made cheaper thanks to our trade deal with Japan". But trade experts waded in and pointed out the agreement would only prevent the condiment from getting more expensive under a no-deal Brexit than it currently is.

 

Lies is all they have. It worked to win the referendum and continues to work to keep the masses heads up their own 4rses.

[dugsbody]

 

Compare contrast:

 

 

Slimy lying weasel.

Supported by sheep.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

 

I have just realised, that in one area, Brexit may be advantageous....  Eggs, or Oeufs.

The French like eggs with white shells and will pay a premium price for them, whereas the British tend to prefer brown shells.

From next year, it will likely cost the French more to buy our white eggs so we may see them in our shops again .

It's the little things that matter.

 

I prefer Blue Eggs (Araucana Chickens).

Guess they beat the no so blue passports.

 

 

[pig]

 

Slimy lying weasel.

Supported by sheep.

Or worse:

Legal action taken against PM over refusal to investigate Kremlin meddling

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/29/legal-action-taken-against-pm-over-refusal-to-investigate-kremlin-meddling

[thehowler]

Events are pressing in, will the negotiations in Brussels break down in the face of too many other pressures?

Belgium might move to lockdown at the weekend, I don't see how the UK team could stay on if that happens. Macron has a national lockdown and another terrorist atrocity to address, fish will not be at the forefront of his thoughts. Merkel is getting heckled in the Bundestag and Johnson being urged to move to tier 4/5 or a lockdown in next days.

Could they really make a FTA announcement tomorrow or Saturday, doesn't feel likely.

[Confusion of VIs]

 

Events are pressing in, will the negotiations in Brussels break down in the face of too many other pressures?

Belgium might move to lockdown at the weekend, I don't see how the UK team could stay on if that happens. Macron has a national lockdown and another terrorist atrocity to address, fish will not be at the forefront of his thoughts. Merkel is getting heckled in the Bundestag and Johnson being urged to move to tier 4/5 or a lockdown in next days.

Could they really make a FTA announcement tomorrow or Saturday, doesn't feel likely.

Friends working on Brexit related matters tell me that there is no great push to maximise the no deal preparations.

This only makes sense if the government are confident that a deal will be done, so either the deal is already done or they have decided that if necessary they will cave. 

[thehowler]

 

Friends working on Brexit related matters tell me that there is no great push to maximise the no deal preparations.

This only makes sense if the government are confident that a deal will be done, so either the deal is already done or they have decided that if necessary they will cave. 

This has always been my view but there's the risk of a banana peel - straight, not bendy - when you run everything to the last few weeks. I suppose they'd find a way to have a temporary extension of transition terms if so?

They've been careful to say they're not in the tunnel, yet, so I guess they could announce that in next day or two, aim to present the deal in mid-Nov.

I don't buy the line that Johnson's waiting for the US result, i think any US deal is still years away.

[rollover]

IMF cuts growth predictions for UK economy as Covid recovery delayed

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said the UK’s hopes of a v-shaped recovery will face serious headwinds from a second wave of coronavirus, and Brexit and the economy will not return to pre-pandemic levels in 2021.

The IMF now projects the UK economy will contract by 10.4% in 2020 and only grow by 5.7% next year, worse than previous expectations.

In June it projected a 10.2% contraction this year and 6.3% growth in 2021.

Ms Georgieva said the IMF’s expectations include a presumption that the UK and EU will reach a deal.

Yahoo

[thehowler]

 

IMF cuts growth predictions for UK economy as Covid recovery delayed

Poorer to start, fer sure. Might be poorer for good, depends how business/trade/tech evolves in coming years.

I see Trudeau is hinting a Canada deal is close. The pro-Brexit crowd and UK govt will hail it as a great deal, but to most observers it will only give us what we already have. And here's the rub, as seen with Soygate, it takes a lot of hard work to get these rollover deals in just a few months but they result in almost no economic/political gain.

The Brit diplomats will get better at it though, they have to. And there will be a few new clauses in the FTAs that will lead to unintended avenues and opportunities...or not.

 

 

Edited October 29, 2020 by thehowler

[thecrashingisles]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-54736413

Dozens of tractors circled Melton Mowbray to raise concerns over post-Brexit farming and food standards.

Farmers said they are worried ahead of the EU transition period ending.

Steve Elnor, who runs a family farm near Grantham in Lincolnshire, said his business faces "a massive threat from the government's apparent determination to tear apart the USP of British food in order to strike trade deals in desperation", adding farmers "have the overwhelming support of the public".

"We are facing a revolution and I worry it is something that we, and many other family farms up and down the country, won't be able to adapt to," he said.

"We face uncertainty from 1 January, 2021, not knowing what the market and prices will be."

[Bob8]

 

Friends working on Brexit related matters tell me that there is no great push to maximise the no deal preparations.

This only makes sense if the government are confident that a deal will be done, so either the deal is already done or they have decided that if necessary they will cave. 

Are you also expecting that there will be a caving in?

And, thehowler and his ilk will claim this is victory?

[rollover]

 

Are you also expecting that there will be a caving in?

And, thehowler and his ilk will claim this is victory?

I think Brexit is lose - lose situation.

In relation to Brexit, what exactly do you mean by victory?

[Habeas Domus]

 

Good timing, there is starting to be a move to white eggs here on animal welfare grounds.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2020/mar/09/beak-trimming-and-brutality-is-it-time-to-stop-buying-brown-eggs

At last we have found the Brexit dividend.

Routine debeaking is forbidden in organic egg production, so you can have brown eggs from a non debeaked hen, you just can't mass produce them in small cages.

[OnionTerror]

 

This has always been my view but there's the risk of a banana peel - straight, not bendy - when you run everything to the last few weeks. I suppose they'd find a way to have a temporary extension of transition terms if so?

They've been careful to say they're not in the tunnel, yet, so I guess they could announce that in next day or two, aim to present the deal in mid-Nov.

I don't buy the line that Johnson's waiting for the US result, i think any US deal is still years away.

The President's fast tracking of FTAs expire on 1st July 2021 (via the Trade Promotion Authority).  If it isn't agreed by then, then there set back will be years....if the severe backlash against US agricultural goods continue, this could well make an FTA unlikely for a fair while...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fast_track_(trade)