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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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HOLA441
 

'Brexit is like moving house' Gove tells business in 'disastrous' conference call

Ministers tell industry to brace for no-deal in “shocking, embarrassing and not constructive” call with 250 business leaders.

Telegraph

Gove is half right......for many people, when they have no job and they can't afford to pay the bills due to Brexit... they will be moving out of their house...  

Edited by IMHAL
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HOLA442

Barnier prepping the ground for a Thursday visit...deal fudge to begin next week?

It's still for Johnson to take the deal opprobrium from the hard leavers (I see Farage is cheering talk of an Oz deal) but I think he'll go for the "ooh, he got a deal after al!" panto.

Then he just needs to point out that all regions will get equal cash package in tier 3, (Liverpool very quiet the last 24 hours), swerve a national lockdown, weather the ports chaos for six months, fend off the SNP and then start charming the billionaires to invest in UK tech...

PMQs could be tetchy today.

 

 

Edited by thehowler
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HOLA443
 

Barnier prepping the ground for a Thursday visit...deal fudge to begin next week?

It's still for Johnson to take the deal opprobrium from the hard leavers (I see Farage is cheering talk of an Oz deal) but I think he'll go for the "ooh, he got a deal after al!" panto.

 

Farage is a joke - the genital warts of politics, popping up to ruin the action.  His sole purpose is to keep BoJo ideologically 'pure' - an Ayatollah of Brexit.  Any BoJo deal must gain the Farage blessing or be called a 'Euro fudge and Chamberlain climb down'

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HOLA445

FT briefing that the battery Rules of Origin row has sparked a letter from car makers...industry group has confirmed.

Some crowing from the old Brexit mob but it's just a sign that negotiations around the deal are ongoing.

 

 

Edited by thehowler
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HOLA447
 

For those thinking Br*xit will lead to the disintegration of the EU

https://news.sky.com/story/stunning-demand-for-new-euro-bonds-presents-opportunity-for-the-eu-12109297

If appetite swings to EUR, USD, RMB what will be left for GBP?

Perhaps you should try to see if Blue passports are edible?

 

Wow, they were looking for  17bn and got 233bn

The outcome was stunning. Orders totalling €233bn (£212bn) were received, with the 10-year bonds attracting orders of €145bn (£132bn), a record for a single issue in the Eurozone sovereign debt market. Analysts had speculated that demand for the bonds might top €100bn (£91bn) but few had expected it to reach the eventual level seen.

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HOLA448
 

Wow, they were looking for  17bn and got 233bn

The outcome was stunning. Orders totalling €233bn (£212bn) were received, with the 10-year bonds attracting orders of €145bn (£132bn), a record for a single issue in the Eurozone sovereign debt market. Analysts had speculated that demand for the bonds might top €100bn (£91bn) but few had expected it to reach the eventual level seen.

At negative rates. They prefer to lose money with the EU

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HOLA4410
 

For those thinking Br*xit will lead to the disintegration of the EU

https://news.sky.com/story/stunning-demand-for-new-euro-bonds-presents-opportunity-for-the-eu-12109297

If appetite swings to EUR, USD, RMB what will be left for GBP?

Perhaps you should try to see if Blue passports are edible?

 

To be fair UK bonds are negative now as well.

3 year last auction, expectation even with this Brexit nonsense the next 10 year auction will be negative as well.

Nobody know where to park all this cash!

Que property is expensive yadda yadda.. but compared to a negative bond yield, people are "okay" parking large amounts of cash into real estate yielding 2-5%.

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HOLA4412
 

To be fair UK bonds are negative now as well.

3 year last auction, expectation even with this Brexit nonsense the next 10 year auction will be negative as well.

Nobody know where to park all this cash!

Que property is expensive yadda yadda.. but compared to a negative bond yield, people are "okay" parking large amounts of cash into real estate yielding 2-5%.

How much are the ECB buying each month now?

I wonder what percentage of Italian debt they own. Think they dropped the 33% limit a while back.

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HOLA4414
 

If the UK is negotiating rationally (a significant assumption I know) then surely the UK is "bigging up" the fish issue to get maximum value for it when we finally throw it on the table.  That would be a pretty classic negotiating tactic - take an issue that you're prepared to compromise on, make it look like it's a massive issue ("this would be poilitcal suicide for the PM") then trade it away at the last minute for the stuff you really want to get the deal over the line.

Maybe it's the other way around? Maybe fisheries is the one area that we can win on, even if it's because we've sacrificed all of our other demands. Boris will gain a pyrrhic victory in getting Brussels to acquiesce on fisheries (0.1% of the economy), even if it means we get locked out of a financial services deal (many, many orders of magnitude in excess of fisheries). Most prime ministers wouldn't even countenance such a deal, but with Boris involved, I am not so sure. 

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HOLA4415
 

Maybe it's the other way around? Maybe fisheries is the one area that we can win on, even if it's because we've sacrificed all of our other demands. Boris will gain a pyrrhic victory in getting Brussels to acquiesce on fisheries (0.1% of the economy), even if it means we get locked out of a financial services deal (many, many orders of magnitude in excess of fisheries). Most prime ministers wouldn't even countenance such a deal, but with Boris involved, I am not so sure. 

A politicians only aim is to get elected. Everything else is secondary to that, otherwise they're not a politician. 

To get elected, Boris needs to command the narrative with a minority of swing voters. These swing voters don't care at all about the City of London financial services but they care a lot about immigration, nationalism, "our" fish, borders, etc. They vote based on emotions, so Boris has to control those emotions through emotional rhetoric.

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HOLA4416
 

A politicians only aim is to get elected. Everything else is secondary to that, otherwise they're not a politician. 

To get elected, Boris needs to command the narrative with a minority of swing voters. These swing voters don't care at all about the City of London financial services but they care a lot about immigration, nationalism, "our" fish, borders, etc. They vote based on emotions, so Boris has to control those emotions through emotional rhetoric.

Not all politicians are in it to get elected, although policies are hard to enact if you don't. They aren't necessarily in it for self-interest, though. Some are, though. 

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HOLA4417
 

A politicians only aim is to get elected. Everything else is secondary to that, otherwise they're not a politician. 

To get elected, Boris needs to command the narrative with a minority of swing voters. These swing voters don't care at all about the City of London financial services but they care a lot about immigration, nationalism, "our" fish, borders, etc. They vote based on emotions, so Boris has to control those emotions through emotional rhetoric.

Sad but true. Baby to be thrown out with the bath water, then be blamed for being in the bath. 

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HOLA4419
 

Maybe it's the other way around? Maybe fisheries is the one area that we can win on, even if it's because we've sacrificed all of our other demands. Boris will gain a pyrrhic victory in getting Brussels to acquiesce on fisheries (0.1% of the economy), even if it means we get locked out of a financial services deal (many, many orders of magnitude in excess of fisheries). Most prime ministers wouldn't even countenance such a deal, but with Boris involved, I am not so sure. 

Possibly - but that would surely cause problems inthe Cabinet.  Sunak is ex Goldman Sachs and would understand what was being thrown away for one.  The Tory failthful in the stockbroker belt would also take a dim view I suspect.

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HOLA4422

Not exactly a state secret outside the Brexit brethren but to be fair I'd imagine either presidency would take the same approach:

Trump will take advantage of the UK's 'weakness' after Brexit if re-elected, warns Britain's former ambassador to the US

Speaking to Business Insider, Sir Nigel Sheinwald — who served in Washington between 2007 and 2012 — said that President Trump had only a "superficial" interest in the UK, despite him and Johnson having demonstrated a warm personal relationship.

He said that Trump would look to target the UK's economic and diplomatic vulnerability once it has fully left the EU next year.

"I think that the mood [from Washington] has become increasingly hectoring and domineering," Sheinwald told Business Insider.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-target-uk-weakness-brexit-warns-uk-former-top-diplomat-2020-10?r=US&IR=T

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HOLA4424

I have just realised, that in one area, Brexit may be advantageous....  Eggs, or Oeufs.

The French like eggs with white shells and will pay a premium price for them, whereas the British tend to prefer brown shells.

From next year, it will likely cost the French more to buy our white eggs so we may see them in our shops again :D.

It's the little things that matter.

 

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HOLA4425
 

I have just realised, that in one area, Brexit may be advantageous....  Eggs, or Oeufs.

The French like eggs with white shells and will pay a premium price for them, whereas the British tend to prefer brown shells.

From next year, it will likely cost the French more to buy our white eggs so we may see them in our shops again :D.

It's the little things that matter.

 

LMAO

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