Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[crouch]

1 hour ago, pig said:

Then again it was pointed out in 2016 that Brexiters were lying to us.

You mean that in 2016 Brexiteers said categorically there would be no Cvid 19 pandemic in 2020 and there is?

[Peter Hun]

30 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

The idea that George Galloway is somewhere between Richard North and John Redwood is hilarious.

Peter North is his son,  I think,

[Bruce Banner]

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/boris-johnson-blocks-boris-johnson-peerage-1-6678948?jwsource=cl

 

[Confusion of VIs]

42 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

The point is that you choose to believe what you choose to believe.

we have the opinions of Grey, North, and Redwood.

A Europhile, A Euroskeptic, and a hard brexiteer.

No one’s opinion is right or wrong; but we can all choose what we agree with.

Personally I think we are somewhere between North and Redwood. The kind of space the likes of Galloway fills.

If you base who you choose to believe on who is saying what you want to believe you will never learn anything. 

Do Redwood or Galloway have a clue what they are talking about?  I don't think so, so I tend to disregard their opinions in favour of people who have put the effort into learning about what is a very complex subject. 

 

48 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

I’m not shouting fake news - I’m sharing a different view.

 

But it is the view of someone who is shouting fake news. Presumably with the intention of distracting from our appalling handling of the pandemic. 

[Riedquat]

49 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

I’m not shouting fake news - I’m sharing a different view.

I'd have a bit more respect for those screaming "look how many have died!" if they seemed interested in trying to get to the bottom of why. But they'd prefer to point to some simple (because simple==good in too many minds) measures they got scared into thinking would be a good idea and to blame the government for everything. They don't want to look too deeply in case they don't like what they see - that the world isn't as simple as they like to pretend it is, that there isn't an easy "he's to blame for everything!" answer, and that maybe there's just something about the UK's situation regardless of government (climate, demographics, health etc.) But heaven forbid people try to think.

[crouch]

1 hour ago, slawek said:

It was a rumour which didn't make sense, especially in the context of no deal..  Nissan was restructuring their business in the EU not Renault.  From Nissan perspective it made sense to try to convince Renault to move their production as their models share design.   There wasn't any news, even a rumour, that Renault would consider this. All this looked like an overblown speculation.  

My understanding is that it was no rumour but a statement by a senior Nissan manager about what might happen to the Sunderland plant in the absence of a UK/EU trade agreement.

1 hour ago, slawek said:

So you try to prove your point "Brexit is not a failure" using some dodgy rumour.  In contrast my post is based on Nissan saying on a record that in a case of no deal their production in the UK is not economically viable, which means that a third of the UK car industry is going to disappear.

I'm not trying to prove anything; it's folk like you who take the slimmest of evidence and then conclude that Brexit has failed in toto. My stance is very simple: wait and see.

1 hour ago, slawek said:

10% lower pound mean we are all 10% poorer.  Your logic is appalling, according to you Brexit would be a success because we can save 34k jobs at the cost of tens of billions of losses on FX alone. What about keeping those jobs and pound strong by joining the EU.    

Did I deny this (10% lower pound mean we are all 10% poorer) ?

My "logic" has nothing to do with it. I am merely pointing out that as Brexit will - according to you - (not may) be a failure then the £ is certain to go down. If it does go down one of the collateral effects is that it might offset any tariffs imposed on cars by the EU and thereby nullify the cost issue alluded to by Nissan.

To accuse me of appalling logic is farcical; I have never equated a trade off between a devaluation of sterling and the retenton of manufacturing at Nissan; that is quite absurd.

Whether those jobs are safe whether we are in or out of the EU remains to be seen. As you note the French are nationalistic and if any rationalisation is down the road the French plants will get priority. 

[Peter Hun]

11 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Peter North is his son,  I think,

His dad doesn't like Boris

Quote

I've never liked Johnson and, as the years have passed, I've come to loathe him with a passion. I can't stand watching him on video and it is as much as I can do to look at still pictures of him. Thus, I am the very last person to offer a clinical or dispassionate view of the man.

However, in terms of generalities, I think it's fair to say that, as people get older, more and more of their character shines through. It's almost as if temperament moulds the body (and especially the face), reflecting the inner person. As a result, really kind and considerate people tend to look nice.

From that, one might not be out of order in commenting on the prime minister's physical appearance and how it has developed. In his earlier days, as a carefree journalist, some might have been taken by his 'boyish charm' and his jocular irreverence, and found it quite attractive.

But what is quite remarkable about Johnson as he currently presents himself is how ugly he has become (pictured). He really has a quite unpleasant look to him – presenting a thuggish, ill-tempered demeanour. The inner man is showing through.

It is axiomatic, however, that we should not judge by appearances (although we often do), but in the case of Johnson, we don't have to. His behaviour and his speech is as every bit as ugly as he looks.
 

 

Quote

 

Crace puts it quite well though. "You can sense the growing disbelief and anger", he writes…

• All his life Boris Johnson has been told that he is the Special One. A person for whom all rules are there to be broken. He is a man who has consistently managed to fail upwards. Sacked from one job for lying or incompetence, he has always effortlessly moved on to a better one. Friends, family and children have only ever been collateral damage in a ruthless pursuit of an entitled ambition.

Yet now there is no hiding place, he adds:

• Boris has achieved his narcissistic goal of becoming prime minister and from here the only way is down. And it’s a lonely place to be because even he can’t escape the fact that he’s just not cut out for the top job. It's not just that it's too much like hard work and he is basically lazy: it's that he's not that good at it. Lame gags, bluster and Latin free association just don't cut it.

 

http://eureferendum.com/

No mention of the mass murder title Bojo has earned himself. Give it time.

 

 

[crouch]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

His view of Brexit as an already failed project is remarkably similar to mine.

He thinks the future is a long crawl back to associate membership of the EU. In short the future is not Singapore it is Turkey.

There's a slight irony here.

Richard North annotated the Foreign Office paper on joining the EEC which was released in 2003 under the thirty year rule. He was quite harsh on Ted Heath for lying to the British people about what membership of the EEC would entail; there's little doubt that Heath seriously misled people. I was inclined to take a more sympathetic view of Heath as I think he saw the EEC  as a way of adjusting ourselves to our proper place in the World; not as a great power but one whose history meant that we could punch above our weight and in this I think he was right.

His son takes that political decline for granted and, in that respect, he appears to be at some odds to his father.

Of course with all these accounts what they fail to do is take account of the way the EU is going; it's a ceteris paribus view but ceteris paribus never exists. Up to now the EU has muddled through its various crises but one day it won't be able to and there will be some sort of fundamental reset which we may find far more congenial and might well rejoin, but it will not be the EU of today.

[Confusion of VIs]

30 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

I'd have a bit more respect for those screaming "look how many have died!" if they seemed interested in trying to get to the bottom of why. But they'd prefer to point to some simple (because simple==good in too many minds) measures they got scared into thinking would be a good idea and to blame the government for everything. They don't want to look too deeply in case they don't like what they see - that the world isn't as simple as they like to pretend it is, that there isn't an easy "he's to blame for everything!" answer, and that maybe there's just something about the UK's situation regardless of government (climate, demographics, health etc.) But heaven forbid people try to think.

Have a look at last nights C4 Dispatches, if you really are interested in getting to the bottom of it. 

The UK had prior knowledge of what was going to happen from Italy and Spain and if we had acted on it should have been able to prevent most of the infections. However, we were led by a fool who thought that somehow we are different and better than the foreigners so the warning were ignored. 

The reality is that without Macron's decisive intervention Boris would probably have blundered on and the NHS would have been completely swamped before he finally locked down. 

[Confusion of VIs]

1 minute ago, crouch said:

There's a slight irony here.

Richard North annotated the Foreign Office paper on joining the EEC which was released in 2003 under the thirty year rule. He was quite harsh on Ted Heath for lying to the British people about what membership of the EEC would entail; there's little doubt that Heath seriously misled people. I was inclined to take a more sympathetic view of Heath as I think he saw the EEC  as a way of adjusting ourselves to our proper place in the World; not as a great power but one whose history meant that we could punch above our weight and in this I think he was right.

His son takes that political decline for granted and, in that respect, he appears to be at some odds to his father.

Of course with all these accounts what they fail to do is take account of the way the EU is going; it's a ceteris paribus view but ceteris paribus never exists. Up to now the EU has muddled through its various crises but one day it won't be able to and there will be some sort of fundamental reset which we may find far more congenial and might well rejoin, but it will not be the EU of today.

I agree that is now the only way we would re-join. 

The lack of a ceteris paribus view is why the only way we can measure whether Brexit has been a success is against the promises made to win the referendum; and why barring some unlikely last minute deal it will soon be possible to conclude that it was a failure.  

[Bob8]

1 hour ago, GrizzlyDave said:

The point is that you choose to believe what you choose to believe.

we have the opinions of Grey, North, and Redwood.

A Europhile, A Euroskeptic, and a hard brexiteer.

No one’s opinion is right or wrong; but we can all choose what we agree with.

Personally I think we are somewhere between North and Redwood. The kind of space the likes of Galloway fills.

I make the comparison to creationism vs evolution.

Which one you believe is more to do with your social background more than knowledge of the facts. You might be smart and have teh wrong answer, or dumb and have the right answer. But, ulitmately, one does match reality more than the other.

[pig]

1 hour ago, crouch said:

You mean that in 2016 Brexiteers said categorically there would be no Cvid 19 pandemic in 2020 and there is?

I mean that Leavers accepted Brexiteers lies about Brexit in 2016, talked boll0cks for 4 years defending them before they went all evasive

The problem with Covid for BJs regime is that the results were immediate and brutal.

 

[thecrashingisles]

39 minutes ago, crouch said:

Of course with all these accounts what they fail to do is take account of the way the EU is going; it's a ceteris paribus view but ceteris paribus never exists. Up to now the EU has muddled through its various crises but one day it won't be able to and there will be some sort of fundamental reset which we may find far more congenial and might well rejoin, but it will not be the EU of today.

And you think "we" are immutable and immune to fundamental resets? You suffer from the delusion that our history has been continuous and membership of the EU is a perversion of it.

[rollover]

2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

 

My next car will be a Nissan.

You will have to buy lots of new Nissan cars

 

Quote

 

New cars sales in Northern Ireland down 97% in May

The 144 new registrations in May means sales were down 97% on the same month last year.

It was a slight recovery on April 2020 when just 24 new cars were sold.

In the UK as a whole, only 20,000 new cars were registered in May - down 89% year-on-year - in the worst May performance since 1952.

BBC

 

 

[crouch]

17 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

And you think "we" are immutable and immune to fundamental resets? You suffer from the delusion that our history has been continuous and membership of the EU is a perversion of it.

I thought I had implied precisely the opposite. The ceteris paribus applies in that context to the EU but it equally applies to us; as you imply history is replete with "fundamental resets", indeed you could argue that that is precisely what history is about.

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

4 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

 

My next car will be a Nissan.

That’s quite a jump up from your Volga. 

Edited June 4, 2020 by MonsieurCopperCrutch

[thecrashingisles]

1 hour ago, crouch said:

I thought I had implied precisely the opposite. The ceteris paribus applies in that context to the EU but it equally applies to us; as you imply history is replete with "fundamental resets", indeed you could argue that that is precisely what history is about.

Yet you seem to exclude the possibility that "we" could undergo the kind of reset that would make joining the EU either as is, or a much more integrated version of it, something "we" would be happy with, despite the historical precedent of Ireland.

[IMHAL]

6 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Try this;

https://johnredwoodsdiary.com

Thanks for that....

That Redwood fella is sure in love with Trump.... I guess he would also not think twice about  sending the army in to dispell crowds. He is not my cup of tea. The label of being an 'immature leader' suits him very well, as it would for Redwood.

I did not have you being taken in by his sort. Not long now tho till the big reveil... a hard no-Brexit deal will slice the curtain apart for the little man behind to speaketh and show us the hiden wonders of Brexit  

Edited June 4, 2020 by IMHAL

[dryrot]

4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Do Redwood or Galloway have a clue what they are talking about?  I don't think so, so I tend to disregard their opinions in favour of people who have put the effort into learning about what is a very complex subject. 

So John Redwood has no clue about the UK, the EU and Brexit? You may disagree with him - but to suggest he is clueless on the UK/EU relationship is absurd.  (Or are you just trolling?)

[Bruce Banner]

14 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Thanks for that....

That Redwood fella is sure in love with Trump.... I guess he would also not think twice about  sending the army in to dispell crowds. He is not my cup of tea. The label of being an 'immature leader' suits him very well, as it would for Redwood.

I did not have you being taken in by his sort. Not long now tho till the big reveil... a hard no-Brexit deal will slice the curtain apart for the little man behind to speaketh and show us the hiden wonders of Brexit  

 

He's not alone.... unrequited love ?

[GrizzlyDave]

1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

Thanks for that....

That Redwood fella is sure in love with Trump.... I guess he would also not think twice about  sending the army in to dispell crowds. He is not my cup of tea. The label of being an 'immature leader' suits him very well, as it would for Redwood.

I did not have you being taken in by his sort. Not long now tho till the big reveil... a hard no-Brexit deal will slice the curtain apart for the little man behind to speaketh and show us the hiden wonders of Brexit  

Oh I’m not his sort - not at all - just providing an example.

Galloway is more my man.

Edited June 4, 2020 by GrizzlyDave

[Bruce Banner]

[slawek]

The UK taking back control and then accepting lower food standards to please the US. 

 

[GrizzlyDave]

9 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Ha ha - total legend.

[Bob8]

6 minutes ago, slawek said:

The UK taking back control and then accepting lower food standards to please the US. 

 

It was clear that this would happen if we left the single market. This is why:
- No-one was talking about leaving the single-market, that was just Project Fear

...and later...

- It was clear we would leave the single market, that is what people voted for.