Mikhail Liebenstein Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 36 minutes ago, FANG said: I thought he was. Yeah, but look at the Lib Dem’s and think about the SNP. The Tories will lose at least 30 seats from the current position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, FANG said: Not from the comments that I am reading. Johnson has done more in 3 weeks than what was accomplished in 3 years. if the Queen is backing him then its gonna happen. It’s straight into a confidence vote now, and he’ll lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollover Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 9 minutes ago, FANG said: Not from the comments that I am reading. Johnson has done more in 3 weeks than what was accomplished in 3 years. if the Queen is backing him then its gonna happen. What he did in 3 weeks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollover Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Quote Boris Johnson has revealed he had ambitions of becoming a rock star. But he quickly realised he wasn't cut out for it and turned his attention to becoming a supermarket tycoon, then a kitchen tile designer. 'I briefly thought I could be a musician, a rock star, but that didn't get very far.' Daily Mail It looks like his Brexit handling so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 All sweetness and light in Downing Street. Today's big news from the BBC is the sacking of one of Javid's special advisers by No 10 boss Dominic Cummings. Apparently, Javid only found out after the event as is less than happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 56 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said: But Boris now has no majority. He is finished. Doesn't matter, he will just limp on as a minority government. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockerboy Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said: It’s straight into a confidence vote now, and he’ll lose. After losing a confidence vote, the polls suggest a GE victory for Boris with the naughty MPs booted out of the party. Corbyn knows that the Tory MPS he needs will be thinking "If I do this, I may lose my seat", and he knows he will lose. Corbyn has been outplayed and every MP knows it. His "Wait and see, lets hope for a revolution and encourage Scotland to leave" approach now shows him as ineffectual, weak and a strategical failure. This wil be explioted in the GE to great effect. Edited August 31, 2019 by rockerboy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 56 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said: Yeah, but look at the Lib Dem’s and think about the SNP. The Tories will lose at least 30 seats from the current position. Agreed, the current polls are not good for the Conservatives. In a GE the Lib Dems will take back SW England and will capture many of the towns surrounding London while Labour will take the edges of London (including potentially Boris' own seat). In Scotland the Tories will lose seats to the SNP. In Lab-Con marginals in the midlands and north of England the Tories will lose more votes to BP than Labour will lose to BP handing seats to Labour. (All of the data show that BP voters are disaffected ex-Tory voters - how do people still not get this?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, rockerboy said: the polls suggest a GE victory for Boris They really don't though. Boris would probably struggle to hold his own seat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockerboy Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Dorkins said: They really don't though. Boris would probably struggle to hold his own seat. Vote intention https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/30/voting-intention-con-33-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-12- Boris https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Boris_Johnson Corbyn https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Jeremy_Corbyn Edited August 31, 2019 by rockerboy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneyfornothing Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 2 hours ago, rollover said: Boris should listen what people want. Lol .. opinion has turned .. even remainers back Boris .. London is not the UK.. of course echo- chamber dwellers won’t notice till too late .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 1 minute ago, rockerboy said: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Boris_Johnson https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Jeremy_Corbyn I remember in 2017 when the polls were putting Labour 20 points behind the Tories and predicting a 100 seat majority for May. In reality Labour finished 2 points behind and gained 30 seats, the Tories lost 30 seats and May had to go begging to Arlene Foster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, moneyfornothing said: London is not the UK.. You're right, London is not the UK, but there are an awful lot of seats south of the Severn-Wash line which were traditionally where most Tory MPs come from but which can no longer be relied on. If the Tories lose seats there where do they gain them? Edited August 31, 2019 by Dorkins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneyfornothing Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 11 minutes ago, Dorkins said: They really don't though. Boris would probably struggle to hold his own seat. The bias is strong ... Boris is up against this guy ... he’ll be lucky not to lose his deposit https://order-order.com/2019/08/30/labours-ali-milani-likes-another-9-11-conspiracy/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 9 hours ago, IMHAL said: Good man. The referendum, at its core, was about making 'our representative democracy' supreme. After all, our representatives where given the job of dealing with brexit, and now, they are being prevented from doing so. What is not in doubt is that they are conflicted. That has to be recognised. However, bypassing them by preventing a natural conclusion is a serous mistake. There is no mandate to bypass our representative democracy, quite the opposite. I personally am in a lot of conflict by it. Because I’ve seen three years of obfuscation by politicians to compromise and work toward a brexit solution. So find it quite attractive that Boris is crushing it to deliver our mandate. Is it right? None of it is right. But at this stage the end justifies the means. 8 hours ago, thecrashingisles said: Have you not figured out that there is no moving on? If we leave, we’ll still be dealing with the consequences for a decade and the trade negotiations will be at least as fractious as what we’ve seen so far. If we don’t leave, we’ll have to deal with the fallout from that too. I can’t see any way out that doesn’t involve the UK breaking up. I think the UK breaking up is unlikely, although NI may go. That was always going to happen eventually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, moneyfornothing said: The bias is strong ... Boris is up against this guy ... he’ll be lucky not to lose his deposit https://order-order.com/2019/08/30/labours-ali-milani-likes-another-9-11-conspiracy/ You do get that Boris represents a London seat? You said it yourself, London is not the UK. Lib-Lab pact = bye bye Boris for sure, but Labour could probably win it without one. Edited August 31, 2019 by Dorkins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneyfornothing Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Just now, Dorkins said: You do get that Boris represents a London seat? You said it yourself, London is not the UK. Lib-Lab pact = bye bye Boris, but Labour could probably win it without one. Let’s catch up after the elections .. lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 1 minute ago, moneyfornothing said: Let’s catch up after the elections .. lol There won't be a general election until 2022 because on 30ish percent in the polls the most likely outcome would be many fewer Tory MPs in the Commons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 10 minutes ago, Dorkins said: I remember in 2017 when the polls were putting Labour 20 points behind the Tories and predicting a 100 seat majority for May. In reality Labour finished 2 points behind and gained 30 seats, the Tories lost 30 seats and May had to go begging to Arlene Foster. Would They be the same type of polls that show that people have changed their mind about Brexit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, crouch said: Would They be the same type of polls that show that people have changed their mind about Brexit? Almost all opinion polls about Brexit are worthless because they don't ask about end states and don't let voters rank by preference. Somebody's first choice might be to remain in the EU but they could happily live with EFTA, equally their first choice might be to leave but only with a deal, all of this politically important detail is lost in most polling. Edited August 31, 2019 by Dorkins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 32 minutes ago, Dorkins said: Agreed, the current polls are not good for the Conservatives. In a GE the Lib Dems will take back SW England and will capture many of the towns surrounding London while Labour will take the edges of London (including potentially Boris' own seat). In Scotland the Tories will lose seats to the SNP. In Lab-Con marginals in the midlands and north of England the Tories will lose more votes to BP than Labour will lose to BP handing seats to Labour. (All of the data show that BP voters are disaffected ex-Tory voters - how do people still not get this?) I disagree with your analysis, Tories will do far better In a GE imho. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 13 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said: I personally am in a lot of conflict by it. Because I’ve seen three years of obfuscation by politicians to compromise and work toward a brexit solution. So find it quite attractive that Boris is crushing it to deliver our mandate. Is it right? None of it is right. But at this stage the end justifies the means. I think the UK breaking up is unlikely, although NI may go. That was always going to happen eventually. But you would say that. I could said 'revoke article 50' - the end justify the means, but I won't because unlike yourself, I wish for a democratic outcome (ie one that satisifes a majority). Clearly and repeatedly you have madde it apparent that you don't. Sad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 10 minutes ago, Dorkins said: Almost all opinion polls about Brexit are worthless because they don't ask about end states and don't let voters rank by preference. Somebody's first choice might be to remain in the EU but they could happily live with EFTA, equally their first choice might be to leave but only with a deal, all of this politically important detail is lost in most polling. So, if polls are worthless then so is the assertion that people have changed their minds about Brexit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said: I disagree with your analysis, Tories will do far better In a GE imho. The other thing I suspect the polls are missing is turnout. Traditional Tory voters (mostly older) have been very good at turning out but in recent decades the more liberal-left younger voters have been lazy. The Tories can't boost turnout of their vote much because it's already close to maximum but Lab+LD can gain a lot of votes without poll ratings moving at all just by their vote being excited, which they probably are at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 (edited) 8 minutes ago, crouch said: So, if polls are worthless then so is the assertion that people have changed their minds about Brexit? People can assert whatever they want but I don't think the data is there really. This kind of thing is more meaningful than asking Leave vs Remain but still not great as no ranking of preferences: https://www.kcl.ac.uk/policy-institute/research-analysis/what-sort-of-brexit-do-the-british-people-want-2018 Edited August 31, 2019 by Dorkins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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