Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[pig]

27 minutes ago, kzb said:

I'm just saying let's cut to the chase straight away.  Follow the money.  This is what politics is reduced to now.

Lol - and when are all the Leave VI’s going to fess up ?

Funny how labour mps are barely out the door, in part due to anti-semitism ,and the RW Soros wingnut trolls are out in force !

All that pent up guilt....

[GrizzlyDave]

14 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

I'm not a Brexiteer, although I did vote to leave, but now would probably vote remain, but I'm not too fussed as long as it's not May's BRINO deal.

What I do believe in is the need for a 2nd (3 way) referendum because the people are being railroaded into something (BRINO) they did not vote for.

 

Out of curiosity what were your reasons for voting leave?

[jonb2]

12 minutes ago, crouch said:

She was very eloquent. Her company seems to operate almost exclusively within the EU so she would be particularly affected by no deal.

However, there are many thousands of businesses who operate outside the EU and who would be affected but to nowhere near the same extent. They will cope.

At the end of the day she is a vested interest who doesn't want this because it means more difficulty and perhaps a complete reorientation of the business. It may be unfortunate but that doesn't mean that this applies to all businesses or, in toto, it's wrong. 

People with vested interests can be quite eloquent and emotional but that doesn't mean they have a strong case. If you have a landlord who goes on about providing a service to the public and that S24 is a blow against the provision of housing he might be very eloquent and emotional but many on this site would see it for what it is - special pleading.

I have long held the belief that exporting increases the wealth of a country as a whole. It's tangible new money that adds to the nation's coffers. We hear of many, many companies leaving. Doesn't matter who they are so much as whether they bring money into the country and that money is taxed. Every fecking day we hear. We have not even heard of the number of companies which will go bust as a consequence of severely diminished business activity. Money will be sucked up into a huge Dyson vortex. Our public services will fail. Education will be even worse. The Tories will rule for a decade. There will be no shake-up. Just a very slow death.

https://www.consultancy.uk/news/20369/ey-europe-abandons-london-for-brussels-before-brexit

Now, we have achieved 4 trade deals. With a few other very nefarious claims to others. I shall post this copy from the FT this morning. Now that you lot have voted to vindicate the Tories - we're in very good hands as you know. Plenty of prosperity on the horizon. IT'S ALL ********.

 

" The UK’s latest attempt to persuade Japan to agree a quick post-Brexit trade deal has backfired after officials in Tokyo reacted with dismay at British tactics.

Theresa May’s government is already battling to mend relations with China, after Beijing cancelled a key trade meeting with chancellor Philip Hammond in protest at a UK pledge to send an aircraft carrier to the Pacific.

Relations with Japan have soured as a result of a letter from the UK foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt and international trade secretary Liam Fox which told their Japanese counterparts that “time is of the essence” and said flexibility would be required on both sides.

Although UK officials insisted that the letter, sent on February 8, had been couched in standard diplomatic language, Japanese officials believe that it reflected an increasingly high-handed approach from the British side. In response, officials in Tokyo briefly considered cancelling a round of trade talks this week. In one section, the letter said that “we are committed to [speed and flexibility] and hope that Japan is too” — a line which, according to people close to Japanese trade officials, was read in Tokyo as an accusation of foot-dragging.

People familiar with the situation said that Japan was finalising an appropriate response a week after Mr Hunt and Mr Fox’s letter had landed. Although Japanese businesses, particularly in the automotive and financial services sectors, have spent two years fretting over a hard Brexit or a no-deal scenario, the UK’s desperation to have trade deals in place before or shortly after its scheduled departure from the EU on March 29 is now becoming increasingly clear to the Japanese public. Japan’s state broadcaster NHK devoted part of an extended show on the 40-day countdown to Brexit by showing a bewildered panel of presenters a “Brexit survival pack” of dried foods and other provisions.

Australia provided a measure of relief for the UK when Simon Birmingham, trade minister, told the Financial times that Canberra was willing to sign a fast-tracked trade deal with London in the event of a no-deal Brexit, adding that “I would absolutely hope that we would conclude negotiations this year.” But Mr Birmingham poured cold water on Britain’s ambition to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership regional bloc.

Japanese officials familiar with Tokyo’s bilateral talks with the UK said that there had been growing frustration with the British side. Although Japan acknowledges that progress has naturally slowed while their UK counterparts have been pulled into preparations for a no-deal Brexit, officials say there have been several occasions when British negotiators have come to the table without the necessary specialists to take negotiations forward. 

Recommended Japanese economy Japan Inc hit by China slowdown and trade disputes Historically cordial ties between the UK and Japan mean that Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has publicly expressed support for Theresa May’s exit deal with Brussels.

On a personal level, Mrs May has seen Mr Abe as her closest counterpart in the G7. But people familiar with Japan’s negotiating position said there had not yet been any political pressure to soften its stance.

The UK wants a deal to put in place of the EU-Japan trade agreement, which came into force on February 1. It has already given up doing this by March 29. Japan has agreed to extend existing trade terms for the duration of Britain’s planned transition period with the EU. But in case of a no-deal Brexit, the EU-Japan agreement would no longer apply to the UK. 

Despite 18 months of talks, Japan and the UK have failed to make significant breakthroughs on a new trade deal. The differences of position, which the Hunt/Fox letter acknowledges as “challenging issues”, centre around Japan’s refusal to accept a simple “cut and paste” of the terms of the EU-Japan agreement ratified last year.

Instead, its officials have been told to negotiate as they would any other trade accord, and to seek better terms from the UK than Japan won through its long haggle with the much larger EU.

The UK Department for International Trade said: “We are continuing discussions with Japan on opportunities for a strong future trading relationship. The prime ministers of Japan and the UK have already agreed to secure an ambitious agreement as soon as possible, building on the deal already agreed between Japan and the EU.”

[Bruce Banner]

18 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Out of curiosity what were your reasons for voting leave?

As I've said before, to screw up David Cameron.

[jonb2]

Oh look what a surprise. Workers' rights down the bog.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-mps-vote-against-including-european-fundamental-rights-charter-in-uk-law-a8162981.html

[jonb2]

I love this. But lies work don't they? Now that both ethics and morality are no longer a thing, we're all on a handcart to hell. Never mind, we'll still have our sovereign tea and blue passports.

https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/17/brexit-billboard-crusaders-four-working-dads-are-holding-politicians-to-account

It's time dolphins took over. We're done.

[jonb2]

Who needs science when we can revert to Druid witchcraft?

http://curiousaboutscience.net/one-month-to-go-for-brexit/

[jonb2]

Not long to go until we know what's going to happen. Or do we? Christ another decade of 1984 ...

https://www.businessinsider.com/government-accused-of-extraordinary-brexit-secrecy-brexit-workstreams-2019-2?r=US&IR=T

Brexit is for the very rich.

[jonb2]

1 hour ago, pig said:

LMAO - you are joking right ?

Unpacking that sort of  bitter and bizzarely  twisted BBC bashing will be fun for future social historians !

its the general population vía SM that have been waking up to dodgy Leave organisations. BBC belatedly cottoning onto the ‘tax payers’ alliance the erg et al after the horse has bolted....

Actually has it ‘cottoned on’ yet ?

 

Indeed Pig. The BBC are now owned by the government. It's Pravda. We're slipping much more towards authoritarianism 

https://medium.com/@carole_cadwalladr/andrew-neil-brexit-the-bbc-f4a569f6516a

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/bbc-sacks-dr-phil-hammond-for-vow-to-stand-against-jacob-rees-mogg/22/08/

https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourbeeb/tim-holmes/is-question-time-s-audience-producer-really-fascist

https://www.byline.com/column/2/article/2379

https://theferret.scot/bbc-first-minister-bannon-emails/

https://leftfootforward.org/2019/02/bbc-invites-two-right-wing-think-tanks-on-in-a-row-to-air-industry-crushing-brexit-policy/

https://evolvepolitics.com/remember-the-newsnight-vicar-who-supported-theresa-mays-brexit-deal-shes-a-bbc-actor/

https://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/14959179.Why_audience_manipulation_on_BBC_Question_Time_is_an_assault_on_truth_and_journalism/

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/the-bbc-sensationalist-approach-to-tusk-comments-characterises-its-news-coverage-1-5895661

Plenty more links where these come from. Very sad.

The amount of pro-Brexit foreign money and influence is very disturbing.

[crouch]

1 hour ago, jonb2 said:

I have long held the belief that exporting increases the wealth of a country as a whole. It's tangible new money that adds to the nation's coffers. We hear of many, many companies leaving. Doesn't matter who they are so much as whether they bring money into the country and that money is taxed. Every fecking day we hear. We have not even heard of the number of companies which will go bust as a consequence of severely diminished business activity. Money will be sucked up into a huge Dyson vortex. Our public services will fail. Education will be even worse. The Tories will rule for a decade. There will be no shake-up. Just a very slow death.

https://www.consultancy.uk/news/20369/ey-europe-abandons-london-for-brussels-before-brexit

Now, we have achieved 4 trade deals. With a few other very nefarious claims to others. I shall post this copy from the FT this morning. Now that you lot have voted to vindicate the Tories - we're in very good hands as you know. Plenty of prosperity on the horizon. IT'S ALL ********.

 

" The UK’s latest attempt to persuade Japan to agree a quick post-Brexit trade deal has backfired after officials in Tokyo reacted with dismay at British tactics.

Theresa May’s government is already battling to mend relations with China, after Beijing cancelled a key trade meeting with chancellor Philip Hammond in protest at a UK pledge to send an aircraft carrier to the Pacific.

Relations with Japan have soured as a result of a letter from the UK foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt and international trade secretary Liam Fox which told their Japanese counterparts that “time is of the essence” and said flexibility would be required on both sides.

Although UK officials insisted that the letter, sent on February 8, had been couched in standard diplomatic language, Japanese officials believe that it reflected an increasingly high-handed approach from the British side. In response, officials in Tokyo briefly considered cancelling a round of trade talks this week. In one section, the letter said that “we are committed to [speed and flexibility] and hope that Japan is too” — a line which, according to people close to Japanese trade officials, was read in Tokyo as an accusation of foot-dragging.

People familiar with the situation said that Japan was finalising an appropriate response a week after Mr Hunt and Mr Fox’s letter had landed. Although Japanese businesses, particularly in the automotive and financial services sectors, have spent two years fretting over a hard Brexit or a no-deal scenario, the UK’s desperation to have trade deals in place before or shortly after its scheduled departure from the EU on March 29 is now becoming increasingly clear to the Japanese public. Japan’s state broadcaster NHK devoted part of an extended show on the 40-day countdown to Brexit by showing a bewildered panel of presenters a “Brexit survival pack” of dried foods and other provisions.

Australia provided a measure of relief for the UK when Simon Birmingham, trade minister, told the Financial times that Canberra was willing to sign a fast-tracked trade deal with London in the event of a no-deal Brexit, adding that “I would absolutely hope that we would conclude negotiations this year.” But Mr Birmingham poured cold water on Britain’s ambition to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership regional bloc.

Japanese officials familiar with Tokyo’s bilateral talks with the UK said that there had been growing frustration with the British side. Although Japan acknowledges that progress has naturally slowed while their UK counterparts have been pulled into preparations for a no-deal Brexit, officials say there have been several occasions when British negotiators have come to the table without the necessary specialists to take negotiations forward. 

Recommended Japanese economy Japan Inc hit by China slowdown and trade disputes Historically cordial ties between the UK and Japan mean that Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has publicly expressed support for Theresa May’s exit deal with Brussels.

On a personal level, Mrs May has seen Mr Abe as her closest counterpart in the G7. But people familiar with Japan’s negotiating position said there had not yet been any political pressure to soften its stance.

The UK wants a deal to put in place of the EU-Japan trade agreement, which came into force on February 1. It has already given up doing this by March 29. Japan has agreed to extend existing trade terms for the duration of Britain’s planned transition period with the EU. But in case of a no-deal Brexit, the EU-Japan agreement would no longer apply to the UK. 

Despite 18 months of talks, Japan and the UK have failed to make significant breakthroughs on a new trade deal. The differences of position, which the Hunt/Fox letter acknowledges as “challenging issues”, centre around Japan’s refusal to accept a simple “cut and paste” of the terms of the EU-Japan agreement ratified last year.

Instead, its officials have been told to negotiate as they would any other trade accord, and to seek better terms from the UK than Japan won through its long haggle with the much larger EU.

The UK Department for International Trade said: “We are continuing discussions with Japan on opportunities for a strong future trading relationship. The prime ministers of Japan and the UK have already agreed to secure an ambitious agreement as soon as possible, building on the deal already agreed between Japan and the EU.”

Exporting is only so good as it helps to pay for imports, but yes, let's agree it's a good thing - generally.

The thing about businesses leaving and rat's deserting the ship is only what you would expect. People who see problems with Brexit will act immediately, as they should, so the losses are immediate. The benfits will accrue more slowly and will accumulate but there will be a (long) period of re-adaptation to the changed circumstances. The losses will be immediate; the benefits will be slower.

I also think you are far too pessimistic about the change in the politics. I don't think that if we had voted to remain things would have changed until the inevitable "bust" forced a reorientation of politics. Brexit has brought that on because it has shown up the system, political, economic and social, for what it is and is actually one of the biggest, if not the biggest, benefit of Brexit to date.

Again you stress only the economics but this is only part of the story, and many would say the minor part. Brexit is likely to change the "optics" of national life over time, maybe for the worse, or hopefully the better, optics which would not have changed but for Brexit. I would not have envisaged any of the conflict or splits that have emerged in national life since 2016; it was submerged; now it is not.

Edited February 18, 2019 by crouch

[pig]

27 minutes ago, kzb said:

I'm just saying let's cut to the chase straight away.  Follow the money.  This is what politics is reduced to now.

Lol - and when are all the Leave VI’s going to fess up ?

Funny how labour mps are barely out the door, in part due to anti-semitism ,and the RW Soros wingnut trolls are out in force !

All that pent up guilt....

[copydude]

Press whispers . . .  based on overhearing Olly Robbins . . . is that May could be considering a 2nd Referendum.

Obvious advantages, total cop out by Westminster and about the only credible argument for extending Article 50.

Hints that EU would not be averse to some can-kicking as well. 

If the mooted Labour split happens, she could use the intervening time to call an election and increase Tory majority.

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

1 hour ago, jonb2 said:

The Rat(cliffes) leaving the sinking ship.

Whenever I look at people like this, Dyson too, I think their level of self-worship must be off the charts. Deity level.

"I am the only one that counts" stuff which is at the root of the growing inequality. Very American.

Both promoted leave. Both knighted by the Queen. Both jumped ship. 

There should be a law in the U.K. that if you are not residing in the country and paying taxes then you rescind all titles. 

[GrizzlyDave]

@jonb2

 

What do you think of - The Independence Group - do you think you will vote for them?

”vote for us so we can hand UK independence back to the EU”.

Jesus wept.

Edited February 18, 2019 by GrizzlyDave

[Riedquat]

12 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

@jonb2

 

What do you think of - The Independence Group - do you think you will vote for them?

”vote for us so we can hand UK independence back to the EU”.

Jesus wept.

"Pursue policies that are evidence-based, rather than led by ideology".

So already a demonstration that they haven't got a clue. Evidence-based towards what end? You need the ideology to decide what you're using the evidence to work towards.

[kzb]

20 hours ago, yelims said:

See the end of that article

 

In total, the government paid out about £500m – or £2,300 per pensioner – which he said was significantly lower than the cost of treating pensioners in the UK.

It also says this:

A senior civil servant in the Department of Health told a select committee in 2017 that Spain charged an average of €3,500 per pensioner signed up to the S1, Ireland charged an average of €7,500....

So Spain actually has some catching up to do with milking the system, compared to ROI.

Let's imagine they relocated say 20,000 "irish" pensioners in Blackpool.  They don't need jobs.  They will occupy accommodation currently taken by undesirables.  They will be spending pensions in the local economy.

€7,500 x 20,000 = £132 million extra for healthcare in the local area (at an exchange rate of 1.14).  This would justify more investment and boost provision.

[crouch]

4 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

"Pursue policies that are evidence-based, rather than led by ideology".

So already a demonstration that they haven't got a clue. Evidence-based towards what end? You need the ideology to decide what you're using the evidence to work towards.

It's the focus group mentality. Set one up, see what they think; bingo that's your policy.

[Riedquat]

3 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

In what way does the EU restrict you in your daily life Dave? Oh yeah it doesn’t; you’re just a paid up Russian troll bot doing Putin’s bidding. 

Are there any laws that produce any noticable effect whatsoever for people not actively engaged in cross-border activities? Have they changed anything at all (whether for better or worse doesn't matter) in the UK?

Don't recall GrizzlyDave defending Putin, that'll be Errol.

[yelims]

1 hour ago, crouch said:

She was very eloquent. Her company seems to operate almost exclusively within the EU so she would be particularly affected by no deal.

However, there are many thousands of businesses who operate outside the EU and who would be affected but to nowhere near the same extent. They will cope.

At the end of the day she is a vested interest who doesn't want this because it means more difficulty and perhaps a complete reorientation of the business. It may be unfortunate but that doesn't mean that this applies to all businesses or, in toto, it's wrong. 

People with vested interests can be quite eloquent and emotional but that doesn't mean they have a strong case. If you have a landlord who goes on about providing a service to the public and that S24 is a blow against the provision of housing he might be very eloquent and emotional but many on this site would see it for what it is - special pleading.

There have been radio ads here in Ireland for months warning businesses that import chemicals from UK about Brexit and to contact relevant authorities mentioned in advert for help and support with Brexit

Edited February 18, 2019 by yelims

[Riedquat]

Just now, crouch said:

It's the focus group mentality. Set one up, see what they think; bingo that's your policy.

So let others decide their ideology for them? That's cop-out thinking (but not a surprise).

[poppie]

34 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

@jonb2

 

What do you think of - The Independence Group - do you think you will vote for them?

”vote for us so we can hand UK independence back to the EU”.

Jesus wept.

GrizzlyDave spend all day posting here. Somebody paying him?

[moneyfornothing]

11 minutes ago, poppie said:

GrizzlyDave spend all day posting here. Somebody paying him?

Could there be a class of people called 'pensioners' or 'unemployed' or would all of those categories be subsumed into 'paid Russian trolls'   ?

Edited February 18, 2019 by moneyfornothing

[Sledgehead]

40 minutes ago, poppie said:

GrizzlyDave spend all day posting here. Somebody paying him?

Don't spend much time here, so wouldn't know - though I note you curiously seem to.

The thing that strikes me, is it takes seconds to drop a swift jibe in between tedious report reviewing / writing. On the other hand, to write a veritable treatise as per jonb - your remainer buddy to whose post GD applied his jibe - takes true dedication and serious amounts of time. Note also his string of posts and references above. Who has time to read these, let alone write them? Funny you don't mention this tho ...

[moneyfornothing]

1 minute ago, Sledgehead said:

Don't spend much time here, so wouldn't know - though I note you curiously seem to.

The thing that strikes me, is it takes seconds to drop a swift jibe in between tedious report reviewing / writing. On the other hand, to write a veritable treatise as per jonb - your remainer buddy to whose post GD applied his jibe - takes true dedication and serious amounts of time. Note also his string of posts and references above. Who has time to read these, let alone write them? Funny you don't mention this tho ...

Its simple mate .. if you voted Brexit you are a Russian troll,   if you favour remain , you are an intellectual giant and general do-gooder and possibly future saint..

[jonb2]

2 hours ago, crouch said:

Exporting is only so good as it helps to pay for imports, but yes, let's agree it's a good thing - generally.

The thing about businesses leaving and rat's deserting the ship is only what you would expect. People who see problems with Brexit will act immediately, as they should, so the losses are immediate. The benfits will accrue more slowly and will accumulate but there will be a (long) period of re-adaptation to the changed circumstances. The losses will be immediate; the benefits will be slower.

I also think you are far too pessimistic about the change in the politics. I don't think that if we had voted to remain things would have changed until the inevitable "bust" forced a reorientation of politics. Brexit has brought that on because it has shown up the system, political, economic and social, for what it is and is actually one of the biggest, if not the biggest, benefit of Brexit to date.

Again you stress only the economics but this is only part of the story, and many would say the minor part. Brexit is likely to change the "optics" of national life over time, maybe for the worse, or hopefully the better, optics which would not have changed but for Brexit. I would not have envisaged any of the conflict or splits that have emerged in national life since 2016; it was submerged; now it is not.

For worse it seems. And we haven't even left yet. Honda shutting its Swindon plant.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47282603

The losses will take decades to bed in. There is no real reason to invest here after Brexit - oh, except for the promise of a slave work force.

You call me pessimistic - sure. But we are living in an age of decay, of the wealthy never having enough. There is no sense of cooperation. Just 100% manipulation of the many for the coffers of the very few. There is no vision, therefore little hope of things improving. We have a double-whammy now - a Tory government for at least a couple of decades. They can now finish what they started and turn the place into a rich man's playground.

I am certain my forecast is more accurate for the next couple of decades than anybody hoping for change for the better. The evidence is overwhelmingly on my side.