dugsbody Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 hour ago, crouch said: In particular the failure of the Euro will be seen as almost insane Out of interest, what is your opinion on the collapse of Bretton Woods? 6 minutes ago, wish I could afford one said: We already had our HPC Indeed. I did not understand how much would be sacrificed after 2007/8. Lesson learned, I took a mortgage soon after, deciding that I'd rather play a rigged game on the same side as those doing the rigging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, dugsbody said: Out of interest, what is your opinion on the collapse of Bretton Woods? Fiat currencies nearly always fail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, wish I could afford one said: Sounds like a great idea... What happens when they then go cash flow negative? In any business cash is king. The aim is to reduce working capital not increase it. Meanwhile their global competitors keep working on their business efficiency. Who said this was not inconvenient? There will be problems; my point is that it is not Armageddon, just a fairly routine contingency. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 28 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: Stockpilng won't protect the likes of Honda, Nissan, and Toyota. If we get a no deal exit they will face tarrifs. on their components coming in and cars going out. Overnight they will become terminally unprofitable. Forget what you hear about them stockpiling, that's to cover a few days of disruption if we get a deal. Their no deal plans are, as far as is possible, to use up all their stocks assembling cars ship them out and then close the plants for "maintenance". If there is a no deal exit, it is likely those plants will never reopen. I'm sure they've been considering this for some time and, one way or another will get around it. Businesses are used to this. As for it being terminal; maybe, maybe not - I have no idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, crouch said: Fiat currencies nearly always fail. No, I mean the collapse of Bretton Woods, what is your opinion. Good/bad? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonb2 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Over and over again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exiled Canadian Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, crouch said: I'm not blaming them I'm merely saying that Brexit is a contingency and the function of management is to plan for contingencies. If bad weather is forecast they should plan for that; it's no different in principle. Err right - do you run a business? Firstly it's been impossible to tell what "Brexit" will actually mean. Sure we've stockpiled raw materials and talked to European customers about how we can keep them supplied if there's trouble at the ports (generally meaning us funding consignment stocks at their premises). That's OK for a couple of months. Longer term we still have no idea what regulatory regime will apply, whether our products which are currently certified by European body will continue to be certified (and what if any UK certification process will replace it, and if it does this will be recognised in Europe). As a result a number of our European customers are now seeking alternative supply from our EU based competitors as we are not in a position to answer some pretty basic questions. These are real issues which are already resulting in lost business for the UK. If we can't resolve them quickly and lose business as a result then people's jobs are at risk. Part of our contingency plan is redundancies if we are unable to maintain the same level of exports to the EU. If it comes to this is there any message you'd like to pass on to those who loose their jobs? Edited February 10, 2019 by Exiled Canadian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wish I could afford one Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, crouch said: Who said this was not inconvenient? There will be problems; my point is that it is not Armageddon, just a fairly routine contingency. Inconvenient and routine? A number of businesses that run on tight margins and/or have high material costs will be bankrupt... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wish I could afford one Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, crouch said: I'm sure they've been considering this for some time and, one way or another will get around it. Businesses are used to this. As for it being terminal; maybe, maybe not - I have no idea. No they're not. Good businesses do not increase their inventories they constantly work to reduce them. Even if they wanted to where are they going to put all these inventories? Under tarps in the car park? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, wish I could afford one said: So you're expecting every business that could be greatly affected by Brexit to expend precious resources (people and money) on trying to second guess what might happen and then put processes in place to deal with all those what ifs? Personally, I think a better option would be for our politicians to grow a pair and make some decisions for the betterment of the country vs themselves and their party. That way those said businesses can use their precious resources to figure out how better to take on their now very global competition. Then if they have any left after that they might want to return some of it in the form of dividends to the shareholders, which includes our pension funds. Brexiteers are not spending their money on contingency .......what do they care. The fact that a lot of business's may not even be able to afford to make these plans is water off a ducks back to these guys.....not to mention those who rely on current frictionless trade arrangements. They are so certain that the EU is evil/will inplode that anything is justifiable.........it's nothing but a cult..... these same guys will be saying 'in twenty years time'......in twenty years time...whilst the row will be scratching their heads wondering why the EU armagedonist idiots where allowed to inflict so much misery to a former prosperous nation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wish I could afford one Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, Exiled Canadian said: Err right - do you run a business? Firstly it's been impossible to tell what "Brexit" will actually mean. Sure we've stockpiled raw materials and talked to European customers about how we can keep them supplied if there's trouble at the ports (generally meaning us funding consignment stocks at their premises). That's OK for a couple of months. Longer term we still have no idea what regulatory regime will apply, whether our products which are currently certified by European body will continue to be certified (and what if any UK certification process will replace it, and if it does this will be recognised in Europe). As a result a number of our European customers are now seeking alternative supply from our EU based competitors as we are not in a position to answer some pretty basic questions. These are real issues which are already resulting in lost business for the UK. If we can't resolve them quickly and lose business as a result then people's jobs are at risk. Part of our contingency plan is redundancies if we are unable to maintain the same level of exports to the EU. If it comes to this is there any message you'd like to pass on to those who loose their jobs? This. I can imagine what the global competitors have in the O of their SWOT analyses these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, dugsbody said: No, I mean the collapse of Bretton Woods, what is your opinion. Good/bad? On balance good. Floating currencies do give a degree of flexibility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wish I could afford one Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, IMHAL said: Brexiteers are not spending their money on contingency .......what do they care. The fact that a lot of business's may not even be able to afford to make these plans is water off a ducks back to these guys.....not to mention those who rely on current frictionless trade arrangements. They are so certain that the EU is evil/will inplode that anything is justifiable.........it's nothing but a cult..... these same guys will be saying 'in twenty years time'......in twenty years time...whilst the row will be scratching their heads wondering why the EU armagedonist idiots where allowed to inflict so much misery to a former prosperous nation. I must have mis-remembered. Wasn't JRM saying that we'd see all the unicorns in 50 years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, crouch said: On balance good. Floating currencies do give a degree of flexibility. Ok, just wanted to fix your opinion. Glad it aligns with your view that the Euro is bad, inconvenient otherwise. One way of looking at floating currencies is a measure of relative wealth/earnings. Under a fixed rate system, countries would have to intentionally lower their minimum wages and cut salaries if they decided they wanted to compete on price rather than quality. The population won't let them do it though. Luckily with a floating rate system, the population don't get a choice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wish I could afford one Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, dugsbody said: Ok, just wanted to fix your opinion. Glad it aligns with your view that the Euro is bad, inconvenient otherwise. One way of looking at floating currencies is a measure of relative wealth/earnings. Under a fixed rate system, countries would have to intentionally lower their minimum wages and cut salaries if they decided they wanted to compete on price rather than quality. The population won't let them do it though. Luckily with a floating rate system, the population don't get a choice. ...or notice they're being made globally poorer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 (edited) 57 minutes ago, Exiled Canadian said: Err right - do you run a business? Firstly it's been impossible to tell what "Brexit" will actually mean. Sure we've stockpiled raw materials and talked to European customers about how we can keep them supplied if there's trouble at the ports (generally meaning us funding consignment stocks at their premises). That's OK for a couple of months. Longer term we still have no idea what regulatory regime will apply, whether our products which are currently certified by European body will continue to be certified (and what if any UK certification process will replace it, and if it does this will be recognised in Europe). As a result a number of our European customers are now seeking alternative supply from our EU based competitors as we are not in a position to answer some pretty basic questions. These are real issues which are already resulting in lost business for the UK. If we can't resolve them quickly and lose business as a result then people's jobs are at risk. Part of our contingency plan is redundancies if we are unable to maintain the same level of exports to the EU. If it comes to this is there any message you'd like to pass on to those who loose their jobs? Who has said there won't be problems? Not me. Some businesses will be affected severely, including yours from the sound of it. Many won't. Also you are conflating the Brexit decision in principle with the subsequent incompetence, which is staggering and undeniable. Most of your post details incompetence and you want to elide that with the decision in principle. You can't. Edited February 10, 2019 by crouch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonb2 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 (edited) 22 minutes ago, wish I could afford one said: I must have mis-remembered. Wasn't JRM saying that we'd see all the unicorns in 50 years? Depends on who he is talking to. 50 to 100 years. But there is this: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/10/jacob-rees-mogg-no-deal-brexit-will-boost-uk-economy-11-trillion/ Edited February 10, 2019 by jonb2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, dugsbody said: Ok, just wanted to fix your opinion. Glad it aligns with your view that the Euro is bad, inconvenient otherwise. One way of looking at floating currencies is a measure of relative wealth/earnings. Under a fixed rate system, countries would have to intentionally lower their minimum wages and cut salariesexchange rate if they decided they wanted to compete on price rather than quality. The population won't let them do it though. Luckily with a floating rate system, the population don't get a choice. The problem with the Euro is that it does not have fiscal or banking union. Also the Euro exchange rate is inappropriate for some countries in the EZ. Because individual members do not control the Euro exchange rate they cannot devalue as a tool. The ECB controls the interest rate. In addition the Growth and Stability Pact puts controls on fiscal deficits so that there are limits to what can be done here. The net effect is that members of the EZ have to use internal devaluation as an adjustment mechanism. This cam be painful as Germany found out when it carried out the Hartz 4 reforms. The Euro is almost guaranteed to fail and it may take the EU with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, wish I could afford one said: I must have mis-remembered. Wasn't JRM saying that we'd see all the unicorns in 50 years? 50 years to brew up and fart a full unicorn....20 years for a hind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 (edited) 35 minutes ago, crouch said: The problem with the Euro is that it does not have fiscal or banking union. Also the Euro exchange rate is inappropriate for some countries in the EZ. Because individual members do not control the Euro exchange rate they cannot devalue as a tool. The ECB controls the interest rate. In addition the Growth and Stability Pact puts controls on fiscal deficits so that there are limits to what can be done here. The net effect is that members of the EZ have to use internal devaluation as an adjustment mechanism. This cam be painful as Germany found out when it carried out the Hartz 4 reforms. Yes, this is what I've said above. Populations don't like their government making them poorer but a floating rate currency allows this to happen and not much the people can do about it. Look at us in the UK. Several years ago before brexit I turned down a role in Switzerland paying roughly my UK salary + 10% (at the time). I regret it now. Since then I've received a 20% pay-cut in international currency due to GBP drop. The Euro was obviously designed to stop countries from competing by playing currency wars and all that implies while bringing more transparency, but it has brought its own set of problems. I'm undecided if this is good or not. I can understand the rationale but unfortunately optics plays a part. Edited February 10, 2019 by dugsbody Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 hour ago, crouch said: Who said this was not inconvenient? There will be problems; my point is that it is not Armageddon, just a fairly routine contingency. Ah yet another Brexshit negative - inconvenient. When will you leavers start to list the benefits of Brexshit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said: Ah yet another Brexshit negative - inconvenient. When will you leavers start to list the benefits of Brexshit? I think they already have. The ability to make life better for people by ceasing to pool some sovereignty with a particular group of nations. And if we have to endure things being worse in practice in order to regain the theoretical ability to make things better, it is worth it. Apparently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Exiled Canadian said: Err right - do you run a business? Firstly it's been impossible to tell what "Brexit" will actually mean. Sure we've stockpiled raw materials and talked to European customers about how we can keep them supplied if there's trouble at the ports (generally meaning us funding consignment stocks at their premises). That's OK for a couple of months. Longer term we still have no idea what regulatory regime will apply, whether our products which are currently certified by European body will continue to be certified (and what if any UK certification process will replace it, and if it does this will be recognised in Europe). As a result a number of our European customers are now seeking alternative supply from our EU based competitors as we are not in a position to answer some pretty basic questions. These are real issues which are already resulting in lost business for the UK. If we can't resolve them quickly and lose business as a result then people's jobs are at risk. Part of our contingency plan is redundancies if we are unable to maintain the same level of exports to the EU. If it comes to this is there any message you'd like to pass on to those who loose their jobs? Cheaper housing, sovereignty, innit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, dugsbody said: Yes, this is what I've said above. Populations don't like their government making them poorer but a floating rate currency allows this to happen and not much the people can do about it. Look at us in the UK. Several years ago before brexit I turned down a role in Switzerland paying roughly my UK salary + 10% (at the time). I regret it now. Since then I've received a 20% pay-cut in international currency due to GBP drop. The Euro was obviously designed to stop countries from competing by playing currency wars and all that implies while bringing more transparency, but it has brought its own set of problems. I'm undecided if this is good or not. I can understand the rationale but unfortunately optics plays a part. It was also meant to drive convergence by defining discipline via both the exchange rate and a structure for fiscal policy limits. The legacy (entry) rates gave the German (and Netherlands)economy a permanent boost by giving them a devaluation and harmed the PIIGS by foisting an appreciation. This has driven divergence instead of convergence and the fiscal strictures and an interest rate determined elsewhere have meant there are few tools short of internal wage suppression and general austerity. If you were a struggling economy you would not like to be in this situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 hour ago, jonb2 said: Depends on who he is talking to. 50 to 100 years. But there is this: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/10/jacob-rees-mogg-no-deal-brexit-will-boost-uk-economy-11-trillion/ This is just as absurd as the Remainer forecasts of doom. Discount entirely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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