Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[IMHAL]

54 minutes ago, crouch said:

You simply cannot understand this; there cannot be "real convincing evidence" because evidence is based on fact and we have no facts about the future because, well, it is the future and it's not here yet. This really is very simple.

However, the EZ does not structurally meet the definition of an optimal currency union (as defined by Robert Mundell), having no banking or fiscal union. It is therefore structured not towards economic convergence but divergence and, hey presto, that's actually what's happened in the EZ since the Euro was introduced (Italy hasn't grown since 1999 or thereabouts). The EU was warned about this at the time but they ignored the warnings; some think this was deliberate and when a crisis occurred it would force union. Frankly every man and his dog knows the Euro is a flawed project and expect it to fail. And if it fails it will take the EU with it.

"..by being outside of it we will be sheltered from the fallout..... I don't buy it."

Who said we would be sheltered by being outside - not me? A previous reply by me on this thread said that IMV the biggest risk to the UK economy is the EU itself. Hardly a comment from someone who thinks we would be sheltered.

I repeat: you want to say that Brexit will fail and you can't.

Evidence was a silly thing to say...my bad.......a request for a convincing argument would have been more apt. 

Tho now we are getting somewhere......I will have a look at this Mundell fella, thanks.

At the moment, and I am always open to change my mind, I put far more probability of brexit ruining us than the eu.

Hang on tho....If every man and his dog knows that the eu/euro is going to implode, it hasn't found it's way into any forecasts, to my knowledge.... which is strange if it is common knowledge....must be one of those things no one wants to talk about...eh......or.....no one believes.

Edited December 16, 2018 by IMHAL

[pig]

6 minutes ago, rollover said:

There are problems and probably always will by some, but I don't think EU is going to disintegrate any time soon.

Anyway, its not that Leavers are so perpetually frightened the EU is going to disintegrate they are impelled to flood forums wailing with fear. I think its more a case of going all nationalist and therefore being forced to think up other reasons why we should leave, plausible/logical or not.

[chronyx]

1 hour ago, Bluestone59 said:

At the risk of ten tons of abuse falling onto my head, what is your evidence for describing most leave voters thus? 

Humour no abuse forthcoming don't worry

[Bluestone59]

1 minute ago, chronyx said:

Humour no abuse forthcoming don't worry

Yes, ok. Thank you. Not necessarily just from yourself though, maybe I've lit  someone else up instead.

I find it truly depressing that "they've" got us fighting amongst ourselves to the extent "they" have. Presumably that's the plan, as always.

If "they" exist at all, that is.

 

 

 

[jonb2]

2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Our closest allies are Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the USA.

We gave them most of our key intellectual property out of desperation during WW2. They dismantled the British Empire. We were indebted to them until 2006, unlike Germany and Japan, who got funding for rebuilding. The yanks were in boom time and we still had food rationing in the 50s.

Yup, definitely a special relationship.

Allies indeed.

[GrizzlyDave]

35 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

We gave them most of our key intellectual property out of desperation during WW2. They dismantled the British Empire. We were indebted to them until 2006, unlike Germany and Japan, who got funding for rebuilding. The yanks were in boom time and we still had food rationing in the 50s.

Yup, definitely a special relationship.

Allies indeed.

You have a very black and white view of the world; I think there is a bit more colour to thr story.

We lost our empire to WW2, not to the Americans. But I’m very glad for the independence of all the nations we once ruled.

[Peter Hun]

43 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

You have a very black and white view of the world; I think there is a bit more colour to thr story.

We lost our empire to WW2, not to the Americans. But I’m very glad for the independence of all the nations we once ruled.

****ing clueless idiot.

[macca13]

On 15/12/2018 at 09:55, copydude said:

Could market panic intervene, scuppering all best-laid plans, once the spectre of no deal becomes reality? 

Pound tanking to 99c . . . whatever. I imagine Art 50 might get pulled rather fast in this scenario?

You mean £ tanking to 99c because the FED keep raising rates and Carnage Carney keeps our rates on hold.. 

You can’t hold your interest rates @ 0.75 when US is nearly @3%  The $ is the global reserve currency 

There is more to Interest rates than Brexit.. Stop believing the news papers.. 

[OnionTerror]

Hmmmm.

 

[thecrashingisles]

11 hours ago, crouch said:

Well if you're asking me to outline the process by which a bloc of 27 countries would disintegrate do you seriously expect me to answer that. At a rough approximation it could happen in any one of around 3 million ways. However, I have stated that it is my belief that the proximate cause will be the Euro.

As to your last sentence you clearly haven't been following events for the past few years. Heard about the ructions in Italy and France; the growing tide of populism in EE and Germany. The European Parliament elections next May will likely see a huge influx of Eurosceptic members and some say it might even be more than 50%. Is this the sign of no appetite to take back control? I hardly think so.

You're still missing the point.  Are Orban and Salvini planning to erect customs barriers with their neighbours and adopt independent trade policies?  No, and they won't do.  The existence of a shared European legal order is simply too embedded to disappear.  The EU isn't held together by force but by day to day reality.

[macca13]

15 hours ago, Dorkins said:

At the STEM company where I work the skilled professionals are about 50/50 immigrants and British and the security guards, porters, cleaners and canteen workers are almost entirely British.

As I keep trying to explain to you all open boarders stifles growth and investment! 

£1 million JCB digger or 10 migrants with shovels

£1.5 million car wash or 7 migrants with sponges

£3 million farm automated equipment or 20 migrants with baskets.. 

Its a backwards step for the economy but the rich profit by avoiding expensive investment as they have cheap slaves who will live in HMO’s or be propped up by Working tax credits and housing benefit.. It also helps push up their land prices.. 

Brits voting for Remain are voting for more of the same..Ever sliding living standards! 

 

[macca13]

13 hours ago, localhero1983 said:

I could quite easily point you in the direction of numerous Eastern European builders who do 4 month stints in the Cambs area and who are paid cash who probably pay close to zero tax in the UK if any at all. ALL have wonderful homes back in their home countries.

The biggest investment the U.K. tax payer has made has been in Eastern Europe.. Building entire villages in Romania 

Although I know an Indian bloke at work, and he has a massive house back home he is going to retire too.. Will sell his U.K. house and live like a king! 

[pig]

 

15 minutes ago, macca13 said:

As I keep trying to explain to you all open boarders stifles growth and investment! 

£1 million JCB digger or 10 migrants with shovels

£1.5 million car wash or 7 migrants with sponges

£3 million farm automated equipment or 20 migrants with baskets.. 

Its a backwards step for the economy but the rich profit by avoiding expensive investment as they have cheap slaves who will live in HMO’s or be propped up by Working tax credits and housing benefit.. It also helps push up their land prices.. 

Brits voting for Remain are voting for more of the same..Ever sliding living standards! 

 

Migrant swamped Hi-tech Germany or kipper-stricken zero-hour Britain ?

Edited December 17, 2018 by pig

[thecrashingisles]

31 minutes ago, macca13 said:

As I keep trying to explain to you all open boarders stifles growth and investment! 

£1 million JCB digger or 10 migrants with shovels

£1.5 million car wash or 7 migrants with sponges

£3 million farm automated equipment or 20 migrants with baskets.. 

Its a backwards step for the economy but the rich profit by avoiding expensive investment as they have cheap slaves who will live in HMO’s or be propped up by Working tax credits and housing benefit.. It also helps push up their land prices.. 

Brits voting for Remain are voting for more of the same..Ever sliding living standards!

Remain does not mean "open borders".  The EU does not have open borders, and wage levels are rapidly equalising, growing 14% in Romania in the last year for example.

[macca13]

5 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

Remain does not mean "open borders".  The EU does not have open borders, and wage levels are rapidly equalising, growing 14% in Romania in the last year for example.

I’m not surprised U.K. benefits have built entire villages in Romania! There was a documentary on it! 

Also by relocating factories from richer countries to poorer, companies save on labour costs.. So Romania must have been a cheap option for business looking for slaves.. 

Edited December 17, 2018 by macca13

[Chunketh]

On 16/12/2018 at 02:30, macca13 said:

oh some pro business billionaire newspapers told you people that wash cars, pick fruit, deliver parcels, ride rickshaws, labour on worksites.. etc

All pay huge amounts of tax.. ?

And you believed them.. ?

I don't read newspapers.

Clearly someone reads the Mail though.

[GrizzlyDave]

5 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

Remain does not mean "open borders".  The EU does not have open borders, and wage levels are rapidly equalising, growing 14% in Romania in the last year for example.

Yes it does

[simvastatin]

6 hours ago, macca13 said:

The biggest investment the U.K. tax payer has made has been in Eastern Europe.. Building entire villages in Romania 

Although I know an Indian bloke at work, and he has a massive house back home he is going to retire too.. Will sell his U.K. house and live like a king! 

The green eyed monster 

[onlooker]

6 minutes ago, prozac said:

The green eyed monster 

Bit rich coming from a contributor to a discussion website which is entirely dedicated to envy of those who own houses.

[Peter Hun]

6 hours ago, macca13 said:

Although I know an British  bloke at work, and he has a massive house in Spain  he is going to retire too.. Will sell his U.K. house and live like a king! 

So what?

[simvastatin]

5 minutes ago, onlooker said:

Bit rich coming from a contributor to a discussion website which is entirely dedicated to envy of those who own houses.

Are we that evil on this site?

[hurlerontheditch]

1 hour ago, macca13 said:

I’m not surprised U.K. benefits have built entire villages in Romania! There was a documentary on it! 

Also by relocating factories from richer countries to poorer, companies save on labour costs.. So Romania must have been a cheap option for business looking for slaves.. 

while labour costs are cheap its the end consumers who want cheap stuff

I know a lot of heavy industries in the uk who have relocated manufacturing to Romania. yes it is cheaper, quality is not as good, resulting in rework but still cheaper. The end users would not buy from the UK anymore as while it was higher quality it was too expensive and even with rework in Romania its still cheaper

[Dorkins]

7 hours ago, macca13 said:

As I keep trying to explain to you all open boarders stifles growth and investment! 

£1 million JCB digger or 10 migrants with shovels

How many times have you seen 10 people digging a hole with shovels in the UK? I'm guessing it's zero.

[localhero1983]

Reading a lot this morning about a 2nd referendum in the media, even though much of it is critical of the idea, these sort of mass stories happen for a reason.  Reading between the lines could T May be thinking about allowing the house to vote on having  a 2nd referendum and so not getting her hands dirty as she blames others.

[crouch]

14 hours ago, IMHAL said:

If you are that worried about the eu imploding what other actions have you considered as insurance against such an event? And why do you think leaving would cushion us?

You have obviously thought about it alot so looking forward to your wisdom on this.

The implosion may be quick but it may be slow. Frankly there isn't much that an individual can do to protect themselves. My game plan, such that it is, is to conserve cash but in the event of a quick collapse I'd move into equities (after a collapse) and maybe tangible assets. In any case I'm 73 and don't think too much about the distant future.

As to leaving cushioning us that's not what I've posted elsewhere and here; my point is that we cannot be cushioned because we are indeed tied up economically with Europe; in fact any country that is not an autarky (are there any?) will be affected, wherever they are in the World.