Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Dorkins]

19 minutes ago, Habeas Domus said:

The problem with that is you may get a lot of brexiters voting tactictly for Hard exit as first choice just to try and stop it from being removed in the first round, but with the un-intended effect it actually ends up winning.

I doubt any politicians will feel like spinning the dice again on a referendum where 2 of the 3 options will give the "wrong" answer. 50:50 odds is risky enough.

I'm not sure the logic works in your first paragraph. In a 3 way Rejoin EU vs Join EFTA vs WTO Brexit referendum why would "brexiters" who don't want to leave on EU on WTO terms go for WTO Brexit as their first choice? Wouldn't they just put EFTA as first choice?

In terms of politicians' motivations, I think the main motivation of the UK government over the next few years will be to find a process that enables them to reach a stable Brexit endpoint without too much economic or political disruption. If opinion polls were to show that a second 3 way referendum would likely give them a clear mandate to deliver one of the 3 options then I think they would call it. The UK government wants the Brexit drama to end at some point, they don't want to manage it forever.

[Dorkins]

1 minute ago, Dave Beans said:

Trouble is that an FTA isn't really enough...will it cover services for instance? Non tariff barriers? Over the coming years, there will be a big push to develop a proper two tier Europe..

Fair enough. Maybe the Hard Brexit option should be thought of as WTO Brexit at the end of 2022, then FTA and loads of bilateral agreements to follow in the years after. It would certainly make the 2020s a bumpy ride, which is why I think a 3 way second referendum should be put to the electorate in a couple of years' time to make sure the electorate as a whole is actually on board for the bumpiness. I think there is definitely a core of Leavers who would vote for it, but is it more than 50% of the electorate? I doubt it.

[jonb2]

5 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

You cannot vote for no deal as it doesn't and cannot exist. 

Anyone using the term probably shouldn't be allowed a vote.

I was answering GrizzlyDave's point about the second referendum. He said it would be 'unfair' to have a remain option - it should be May's deal or a 'hard no-deal cliff-edge just leave FFS tell the EU to get fecked 51st state we won get over it type Brexit'.

[OnionTerror]

5 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Fair enough. Maybe the Hard Brexit option should be thought of as WTO Brexit at the end of 2022, then FTA and loads of bilateral agreements to follow in the years after. It would certainly make the 2020s a bumpy ride, which is why I think a 3 way second referendum should be put to the electorate in a couple of years' time to make sure the electorate as a whole is actually on board for the bumpiness. I think there is definitely a core of Leavers who would vote for it, but is it more than 50% of the electorate? I doubt it.

If there was a workable plan  on the table, then people may with roll it...If we did have another ref after the fact, it would mean fully in EU membership...Whether people would accept that?

I'd be on the phone to the Swiss, Norwegians, Liechtensteiners & Icelanders to sort something out to start with..

Edited December 9, 2018 by Dave Beans

[jonb2]

5 hours ago, pig said:

Remain could even have an ‘allow the NHS be funded at all’ bus.

Love it.

 

[jonb2]

5 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

We already are in political union.

If leaving now is hard, the only way to leave in future will be whilst holding an armalite.

No deal = no single big deal.

the no deal reality will be lots of small working arrangements.

Tonga and Botswana. Maybe if we hit the big time - Kenya.

[Dorkins]

2 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

I was answering GrizzlyDave's point about the second referendum. He said it would be 'unfair' to have a remain option - it should be May's deal or a 'hard no-deal cliff-edge just leave FFS tell the EU to get fecked 51st state we won get over it type Brexit'.

I think the hard leavers arguing for a referendum on May's deal vs Hard Brexit are really not thinking about strategy very clearly. As May's deal is due to kick in on March 30th 2019 when A50 ends presumably this referendum would need to be happening in just a few weeks' time and if the vote went for a Hard Brexit then the UK would exit the EU on WTO terms just a few weeks after that with almost no preparations in place.

It seems incredibly unlikely that the electorate would vote for a WTO Brexit with almost no notice, so why bother having the vote? People who want a WTO Brexit should support May's deal and then campaign for a WTO Brexit at the end of the transition period, say December 31st 2022. This would be much more palatable to the electorate and hence more likely to actually happen.

[pig]

1 minute ago, Dave Beans said:

Trouble is that an FTA isn't really enough...will it cover services for instance? Non tariff barriers? Over the coming years, there will be a big push to develop a proper two tier Europe..

The only practical way forward for Brexit is as a 'process' anyway. 

But that takes vision, strategy planning and constant flexibility. Which er... hasn't happened.

Instead its dumped on us like a dollop of crappy soggy semolina in the schools of yesteryear. With immigrationistas and disaster capitalists as dinner ladies

Eat it. No feck off. EAT IT. Cue food fight.

 

[jonb2]

3 hours ago, localhero1983 said:

LOL LOL LOL

Or are you joking?

He's mostly right. But it refers to  a comparison between the developed northern countries and 'some' of the new members like Poland and the Czech Republic where inequality is lessening. We also have the greatest number of poor regions too, and things ain't getting better. Brexit will exacerbate this - considering my money is on another right wing government next election - we're fecked.

 

[Sledgehead]

 

29 minutes ago, pig said:

Great find.

Have to say while I'm not keen on the term gammon, bearing in mind its mainly used by white people to insult other white people I've always thought its stretching it to call it a racist term.

Gammon (insult) - wikipedia

Quote

In 2018 it became particularly known as a term to describe white people, especially those on the political right or who supported Brexit, who appear pink-faced when emotional.^[1][2][3] The term is a comparison of their flushed skin colour to the pink of gammon, i.e. salted pork leg.^[4]

Not racist at all (sacrcasm)

[jonb2]

1 hour ago, Kosmin said:

Yes and not everyone from those areas are rednecks. Similarly there are hillbillies in states like Kentucky and Virginia, but it's the poor, rural parts. I'm not sure what the slurs are for the Midwest. I think the culture wars are a distraction really.

Please stop with the 'redneck' stuff Kosmin - it's racist.

[pig]

2 minutes ago, Sledgehead said:

 

Gammon (insult) - wikipedia

Not racist at all (sacrcasm)

Snowflake

[Sledgehead]

7 minutes ago, pig said:

Snowflake

Wrong there. I'm a honky, a gammon, a limey, a rost beouf. Can't see what's wrong with being any of those things, so can't see them as insulting. That doesn't stop them being meant as racial or national slurs.

The wiki refers to Paul Hollywood being described as a "walking gammon joint". I wonder if that was meant as a compliment?

Edited December 9, 2018 by Sledgehead

[jonb2]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

What about the dozens of other issues that are still up for debate.

Is it pure WTO terms or will we try to have a FTA with the EU.

Will we trade access to our fishing grounds for say aviation rights

Will we keep mutual recognition of qualifications with the EU

Etc, etc, etc 

Complete abandonment of anything foreign.

We've got a navy you know and once had an empire.

The pound will tank again, increasing true inflation beyond 10%. But we can dig for Britain. We don't need no favours from anybody. Tea and crumpets will see us through. The NHS will be privatised. 50% of councils will go bust. Unemployment will quadruple. The global elites will buy up all our property and rent it back to us. But we can watch 633 Squadron and The Dambusters back to back on a loop. We'll have to reopen the coal mines and the Tories will have to learn to be nice to miners for the first time ever. Bankers will get richer (they always do) - but will have the inconvenience of armed guards and bullet proof cars. Drug dealers will be kings rather than princes and we'll follow our cousins across the Atlantic with our own, very British opioid crisis.

But we'll all have sovereignty for tea. Some like JRM and Boris will have much more sovereignty than most of us, as they will be selling England by the pound at 20% commission.

[Kosmin]

1 hour ago, jonb2 said:

Tonga and Botswana. Maybe if we hit the big time - Kenya.

Bit racist mate

[Confusion of VIs]

2 hours ago, Dorkins said:

In terms of WTO vs FTA, I think the amount of time the UK electorate, the UK government, MPs and the EU27 are willing to wait for Brexit to reach some kind of stable endpoint is much shorter than the amount of time it would take to negotiate an FTA so logistically it would be WTO Brexit first then FTA later. Personally I would be surprised if Brexit isn't wrapped up by the end of 2022, I don't buy this line that Brexit is going to dominate UK politics for decades.

Yes there would be lots of bilateral issues to tidy up but these things are best left to trade negotiators and diplomats, not the kind of big constitutional issues it is worth bothering voters with in a referendum.

A hard Brexit also means no transition period.

As its now far too late to agree and implement the dozens, probably hundreds, of side deals required to keep things moving reasonably normally, it also means instant chaos followed by a mass exodus of firms (where the either the UK is part of a European supply chain of provides the consumer market for goods produced here) during the 5-7 years required to agree an FTA with the EU.

The government would soon find out that the public cares more about the impact of all those unresolved side issues than the big constitutional issues. 

 

 

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, Sledgehead said:

Wrong there. I'm a honky, a gammon, a limey, a rost beouf. Can't see what's wrong with being any of those things, so can't see them as insulting. That doesn't stop them being meant as racial or national slurs.

The wiki refers to Paul Hollywood being described as a "walking gammon joint". I wonder if that was meant as a compliment?

It may be used as an insult but is it racist, does Hollywood lose his rag and turning pink and becoming incoherent with rage on a regular basis?

Where I work, for a while "going the full gammon"it was used to describe anyone (male, female, black or white) who "lost it" over some minor annoyance. 

[Itssimple]

May ..

Guardian article from last June.

https://amp.theguardian.com/science/brain-flapping/2017/jun/06/political-culture-shock-could-paris-syndrome-explain-theresa-mays-meltdowns

[copydude]

5 hours ago, Kosmin said:

 I'm not sure what the slurs are for the Midwest.

Whole lotta trailer trash in tornado alley.

[copydude]

3 hours ago, jonb2 said:

We'll have to reopen the coal mines and the Tories will have to learn to be nice to miners for the first time ever.

Immigration rockets as we import thousands of Eastern European miners. Bishop Auckland becomes the first UK town to have road and traffic signs in English and Ukrainian. The Salvation Army hires Jamie Oliver to open a chain of soup kitchens across Durham. Strikes are narrowly averted after Westminster attempts to pay housing benefit in beef dripping and lemon drizzle cake. War is narrowly averted after racing pigeons are denied EU airspace.

[macca13]

Why do we want to remain? 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/let-them-buy-teslas-how-macron-became-the-enemy-of-the-french/

[simvastatin]

2 hours ago, macca13 said:

Why do we want to remain? 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/let-them-buy-teslas-how-macron-became-the-enemy-of-the-french/

We need to get those bankers back, pronto 

[Peter Hun]

3 hours ago, macca13 said:

Why do we want to remain? 

Unpopular EU politician. Let's ****** our economy because of it. That will serve 'em right. 

[rollover]

13 hours ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

They've said remaining is better than leaving via May's deal.

But they still all want to leave the EU.

 

 

Who are "they"?

[copydude]

2 minutes ago, rollover said:

Who are "they"?

Migrants.

Quote

Greek authorities say they have arrested 5,633 people, mostly migrants, so far this year for trying to fly out of the country with forged identity papers — with sharp increases in arrests at key airports.