Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[thehowler]

3 minutes ago, Exiled Canadian said:

Things have got to a very sad state when the UK Govt is deliberately trying to reduce the number of options available to it in order to force through whatever Brexit deal it comes back with.

I agree, I'm for transparency and court clarity. Imagine the govt are fighting it as they know a positive finding will immediately be presented to remain-wavering MPs as answer to all their problems, thus muddying the deal/no deal waters.

I can't see the court agreeing to it though, why shouldn't the rest of the EU/26 have a say in the process?

[Dorkins]

15 minutes ago, thehowler said:

However, it does mean the vote/GE at end of transition will not contain a leave option. We will already have left. They will have to devise a new term!

A workable question would be something like: What should the UK government's next step in its future relationship with the European Union be? Rank these options 1-3 in order of preference (1= most preferred, 3 = least preferred): a. Apply to rejoin the European Union as a full member state. b. Do not apply to rejoin the European Union as a full member state. Apply to remain in the single market through EFTA. c. Do not apply to rejoin the European Union as a full member state. Exit the single market.

Let the people choose between remain, soft Brexit and hard Brexit.

Edited November 6, 2018 by Dorkins

[Confusion of VIs]

8 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Agree, it's a high price for a diminished role for ECJ and questionable control of immigration. I imagine the UK will find a few look-squirrel! loopholes for disenchanted leavers though.

Not sure about this. We will still be legally bound to EU/27 laws and all the rest, but will not be a member state. This is clear as we will be at 3rd country status in EU/27 law, hard to argue that one. Maybe splitting hairs but impossible to foresee full consequences of the change.

However, it does mean the vote/GE at end of transition will not contain a leave option. We will already have left. They will have to devise a new term!

p.s. I see the govt are again trying to block the case going to ECJ to decide on whether we can unilaterally stop Art 50 and retain all rights/rebate etc. Think it's going to hearing late this month. This begins to look like quite an attractive option - if transition is going to be as divisive and damaging as you predict!

There was a change made to the Act, not sure of the exact details, when it was realised that we could not access the EU's trade agreements unless we are still legally a member of the EU. 

My understanding is that although passed and in force its legal effect, in relation to ending our membership, is in abeyance until the end of the transition period.

 

[cashinmattress]

20 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I have no expectation that we will rejoin after completing the leaving process, for the simple reason I don't think we would be wanted back. Having the UK tagging along, still tied to the EU by the need to retain free access to the SM but without a vote, is a pretty good outcome for the EU.

However, our being out in Mar 19 is not the whole story. During the "transition" period we are legally still in the EU. Although the act has been passed it is effectively held in abeyance until we complete the transition period, whenever that might be. From the EU's perspective we are also legally still in.  

In two years time the choice may well be Leave, extending transition on an ad hoc basis or revert to full membership.

The UK is a small fish and trying to pass itself off as a player like China or the USA.... well.... the big fish are watching the clock more closely than the clueless British electorate.

The UK needs a transition period of many years, perhaps decades to sort out this mess to even get back to ground zero. Yes. Just back to square one.

Politicians know this and understand how damaging all this will be in the short to medium term. Nobody can predict the long term, and most of us will be past it anyways.

In the mean time our government is going to be on damage control for years.. putting things like public service to the back burner.

There are simply not enough civil servants, bureaucrats and government officials to transition Britain,  and on that I predict a lot (more) of Americanisation of the UK's social welfare system.

Further, the integrity of the union is going to be put to breaking point and we are likely to see a lot of civil disobedience from it.

The vultures are hovering... you just don't see it as you're still fixated on the snake oil of charismatic Farage et al.

The term 'force majeure' may become something that Brexit supporters come to understand as they see businesses haul a$$ to safer lands.

 

[Exiled Canadian]

7 minutes ago, thehowler said:

 

I can't see the court agreeing to it though, why shouldn't the rest of the EU/26 have a say in the process?

I guess that comes down to a legal interpretation of the drafting as opposed to any view as to whether it is "fair" or otherwise.

[thehowler]

3 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

My understanding is that although passed and in force its legal effect, in relation to ending our membership, is in abeyance until the end of the transition period.

Fascinating. I wonder if that means we don't go to 3rd country status then?

[thehowler]

For anyone interested in the CA/Leave EU/Observer story there have been developments this morning - all week really. Skip this post if this stuff bores you.

Today, Banks has been skewered for sending unsolicited emails between his business offices and his Brexit offices databases, in breach of data laws, and been fined £120K £135k, EDIT.

However, the Information Commissioners Office were also tasked with looking into alleged links between Banks and Cambridge Analytica as part of a wider data outrage regards Brexit, and their findings show the two companies did no substantial work together.

In evidence provided to the ICO, Leave.EU stated that four meetings took place:

On 23 October 2015, representatives of Leave.EU met with CA staff; this was a basic introductory meeting to express interest in potentially working together.

On 18 November 2015, CA appeared at a press conference with Leave.EU.

On 20 November 2015, CA went to Leave.EU’s Bristol offices to pitch their product.

On 8 January 2016, representatives of Leave.EU met CA in London, and CA presented a proposal for future work together.

Based on our enquiries, testimony and interviews, we conclude that this is indeed the case - there is no evidence of a working relationship between CA and Leave.EU proceeding beyond this initial phase.

I think one of the main problems for the journalists associated with all this is that info is very scanty and some of them have attempted to build a case using previous statements made by Banks and other players to show contradiction, evasion, obfuscation etc. The trouble is that this investigative pathway relies on said players being honest and consistent commentators on their past/business/actions - readers must make up their own minds on the wisdom of this method.

I think the whole thing should go to a public inquiry, with witnesses under oath. But the ICO report is at least clear - no serious work done between Leave EU and CA. Maybe now time to move onto Vote Leave and see what the real links were there.

https://ico.org.uk/about-the-ico/news-and-events/news-and-blogs/2018/11/ico-s-investigation-into-the-use-of-data-analytics-in-political-campaigns/

Edited November 6, 2018 by thehowler

[Kosmin]

10 hours ago, oatbake said:

This is what I find hilarious about Remainers. They simplu can't comprehend the complexity that people might actually change their minds as they get older and more experienced/wise in the ways of the world.

I don't think there is any reason to believe that people can't comprehend that people can change their minds. One might similarly argue that young people should accept the wisdom of old people throwing their toys out of their prams when the rate growth of HPI and state pension slows down.

 

[Confusion of VIs]

26 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Fascinating. I wonder if that means we don't go to 3rd country status then?

Logically you would think so and that would be consistent with us being unable to implement trade deals during transition.

Perhaps we will be able to negotiate a Schrodinger type membership simultaneously in and out depending on where you are looking from.  

[thehowler]

Looks like no illegality found by ICO for Vote Leave and CA either.

 

 

[cashinmattress]

https://news.sky.com/story/german-manufacturer-schaeffler-to-shut-two-uk-plants-after-brexit-11546123

Quote

German manufacturer Schaeffler to shut two UK plants after Brexit

...

German manufacturer Schaeffler has said Brexit is a factor in its decision to close two UK plants, with 500 jobs expected to be lost.

...

"The uncertainty surrounding Brexit was one factor amongst others in the analysis of the UK market."

Those Brexit benefits keep rolling in.

How many of those 500 people are going to be celebrating?

[thehowler]

Decisions brought forward by Brexit...in a changing automobile industry.

Schaeffler, which makes ball bearings, said its factories in Plymouth, southwest England, and Llanelli in Wales would close over the next couple of years, with production shifting to Germany, China, South Korea and the United States.

"Brexit is clearly not the single decisive factor behind our decision-making for the UK market, but the need to plan for various complex scenarios has brought forward the timing," Juergen Ziegler, Schaeffler's manager responsible for Europe, said in a statement.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/06/reuters-america-update-2-german-auto-parts-maker-schaeffler-to-close-two-uk-factories.html

And Michelin is off too...closing a plant in Dundee.

The company said the factory had faced “serious difficulties” in recent years because of a “profound transformation” in the number of cars on the market, and due to an “accelerated shift” towards “low-cost, entry-level products” from Asia.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/michelin-dundee-factory-tyres-uk-jobs-cut-a8619806.html

 

Edited November 6, 2018 by thehowler

[GrizzlyDave]

20 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Decisions brought forward by Brexit...in a changing automobile industry.

Schaeffler, which makes ball bearings, said its factories in Plymouth, southwest England, and Llanelli in Wales would close over the next couple of years, with production shifting to Germany, China, South Korea and the United States.

"Brexit is clearly not the single decisive factor behind our decision-making for the UK market, but the need to plan for various complex scenarios has brought forward the timing," Juergen Ziegler, Schaeffler's manager responsible for Europe, said in a statement.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/06/reuters-america-update-2-german-auto-parts-maker-schaeffler-to-close-two-uk-factories.html

And Michelin is off too...closing a plant in Dundee.

The company said the factory had faced “serious difficulties” in recent years because of a “profound transformation” in the number of cars on the market, and due to an “accelerated shift” towards “low-cost, entry-level products” from Asia.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/michelin-dundee-factory-tyres-uk-jobs-cut-a8619806.html

 

This is globalisation.

[smash]

8 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

This is globalisation.

Yep.

[Confusion of VIs]

33 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

This is globalisation.

It would be naive to think that the added costs/frictions that will/may arise from Brexit wasn't a factor in the decision.

 

[thehowler]

1 hour ago, GrizzlyDave said:

This is globalisation.

There's a lot of it about.

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

How long has this performance got to last, what are the final dates when?:

1. TMay cannot get a deal with the EU.

2. TMay has a deal with the EU but cannot get it approved by parliment.

 

Then one or more of the following occurring:
- TMay is replaced.
- Gov't falls, GE called.
- Hung parliment.
- A50 extended.
- Second People's Vote scheduled. 
- A50 revoked, remain in EU.
- Leave the EU with a 'No Deal' hard Brexit.

Any more wild card options? Gove's been pretty quiet hasn't he...

 

 

Edited November 6, 2018 by DarkHorseWaits-NoMore
typo's

[GrizzlyDave]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

It would be naive to think that the added costs/frictions that will/may arise from Brexit wasn't a factor in the decision.

 

It’s lazy and easy to blame brexit as the cause in most of this.

Perhaps Brexit is a factor, perhaps. Perhaps it has accelerated a few hard decisions. The future of the Uk isn’t making ball bearings or car tyres.

[thehowler]

35 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

How long has this performance got to last, what are the final dates when?:

1. TMay cannot get a deal with the EU.

2. TMay has a deal with the EU but cannot get it approved by parliment.

I think 21st Jan is the deadline for a bill to be presented at HoC. You need a few weeks for it to be perused but I think they could do all the voting so mid-Jan is probably as late as it gets.

But my bet is it goes through at a mid-December summit. That gives them enough time to draft all the legal stuff for a UK-wide CU.

Then you've got the meaningful vote. There's a lot of talk about this being voted down at first call and emergency talks/concessions for a week or two and then a re-vote.

Maybe Christmas Eve!

[OnionTerror]

Unless the UK agrees to remain in harmonising standards with the EU (and agree a framework to uphold them), then I can see almost see no deal is pretty much nailed on.  A CU resolves absolutely bugger all..as this slide shows...

Edited November 6, 2018 by Dave Beans

[Confusion of VIs]

1 minute ago, Dave Beans said:

Unless the UK agrees to remain in harmonising standards with the EU (and agree a framework to uphold them), then I can see almost see no deal is pretty much nailed on.  A CU resolves absolutely bugger all..

I think CU is being used as a shorthand for all of this.

It's all pretty meaningless to the average voter anyway, so as long as they can create the appearance of forcing concessions from the EU they will probably get most voters to accept it. 

Calling it the BRINO it actually is would make it a much harder sell.

[OnionTerror]

3 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I think CU is being used as a shorthand for all of this.

It's all pretty meaningless to the average voter anyway, so as long as they can create the appearance of forcing concessions from the EU they will probably get most voters to accept it. 

 Calling it the BRINO it actually is would make it a much harder sell.

Although a CU isn't even necessary...its over egging the pudding..There are other ways around it.. I think most MPs dont even know the difference between a/the CU & the SM...

Edited November 6, 2018 by Dave Beans

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

46 minutes ago, thehowler said:

21st Jan is the deadline for a bill to be presented at HoC....

Thanks, I need to see a light at the end of the tunnel to a firm destination. Just can't face the prospect of a never ending Withdraw Agreement / Transition implementation period. The rubber has to hit the road soon.

[pig]

23 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Don’t forget Obama, La Garde, Carney, BrownBlairMajor, and the entire HMG available to champion remain.

 

Lol yes all those too. God knows how people were supposed to have time to get propagandised by the Brexit press and Facebook with all that going on !

IMF too. Have to admit I didn't personally notice their 'project fear' at the time and missed the below article but their more recent take down of Britain reads like a Tufton St mobs guide to Brexit:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/22/hardcore-brexiters-real-threat-imf-warnings

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/17/economic-lies-neoliberalism-taxpayers

Quote

 

what this IMF research shows is that the Westminster classes have been asset-stripping Britain for decades – and storing up financial trouble for future generations...

 ...natural monopolies handed over to the wealthy, banks that can dump their liabilities on the public when things get tough, and an outsourcing industry that feasts upon the carcass of the public sector. As if all this weren’t enough, neoliberal voices complain that we need to cut taxes and red tape, and further starve our public services.

 

 

[thehowler]

1 hour ago, Dave Beans said:

Unless the UK agrees to remain in harmonising standards with the EU (and agree a framework to uphold them), then I can see almost see no deal is pretty much nailed on.

Think they'll agree to align and the ECJ will rule (final say) on anything that pertains to EU/27 law. And us of term CU might draw in a few wavering Labour MPs?

But hey, this is all only for a backstop that will never happen, right?