Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[OnionTerror]

5 minutes ago, pig said:

Well, not quite -  you could say the big caveat is 'if Leave was talking crap then our preference is...'

Edit: actually except for immigration - which is gratifying because I've always said for Ref 2 that should be the remain option.

No mention about whether you wanted to maintain a political union either...?

[HairyOb1]

Just now, ccc said:

He is absolutely adored in much of the US. You are talking to the wrong people. 

Do you honestly think Trump has done nothing different to previous presidents ? 

He's not adored by all of the folk I talk to, professionally and friends.  I am in a group chat with 11 Americans, through something else, and none of them love him, show pictures of open hostility towards him and they're all educated, successful people.  Maybe that's it.  Genuinely, meet an American abroad and ask them what they think of him.  Meet anyone who wouldn't be too bruised falling out of their family tree and yes, they love him, because he plays to their stupidity.  Watch that support collapse in key areas, as it is, when these tariffs start to bite.  You really aren't following US politics at all if you think it's all ticketed boo over there

I think Trump is taking the glory that the previous presidents hard yards has enabled him to.  I also think he's more supplicant than other Presidents when it comes to Kim too.  But, after saying that, he's still achieved nothing, weapons continue to be built.

[pig]

1 minute ago, ccc said:

Wow. 

They did nothing. Literally nothing. 

Trump is a dick but his hard attitude has put Kim into line. 

Or is it all a massive coincidence 

Aw bless.

At least the ethno-nationalists are happy.

[thehowler]

17 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

  18 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Rumours abound that they are planning a no deal quite intensively..

No deal and a border in the Irish Sea (as a fail-safe)...permanent transition status, so everything as before but no vote...and we can discuss FTA agreements with other nations but never implement them.

Is that it?

Edited July 9, 2018 by thehowler

[HairyOb1]

2 minutes ago, ccc said:

Wow. 

They did nothing. Literally nothing. 

Trump is a dick but his hard attitude has put Kim into line. 

Or is it all a massive coincidence 

So, firmer and firmer sanctions, crippling their ability to buy or sell anything on the global market is nothing?  Seriously?  They've been torn apart by sanctions.  Trump makes some rhetoric, which Obama sounded too by the way, and he's solved a problem?  That's almost section-able thinking.

Nothing, I repeat, NOTHING, has changed with regards to NK.

[HairyOb1]

1 minute ago, thehowler said:

No deal and a border in the Irish Sea...permanent transition status, so everything as before but no vote...and we can discuss FTA agreements with other nations but never implement them.

Is that it?

I don't want to gloat, start saying "I told you so", but, well, you know the rest...

[pig]

2 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

No mention about whether you wanted to maintain a political union either...?

Thats a trickier one.

A couple of weeks before the referendum I was tending for Leave on that score.

[Peter Hun]

1 minute ago, HairyOb1 said:

Nothing, I repeat, NOTHING, has changed with regards to NK.

Two immovable facts

1. NK will never give up nuclear weapons
2. USA will never attack NK while it has nuclear weapon, or ever

Make a peace agreement out of that.

 

 

[OnionTerror]

7 minutes ago, thehowler said:

No deal and a border in the Irish Sea...permanent transition status, so everything as before but no vote...and we can discuss FTA agreements with other nations but never implement them.

 Is that it?

There will be sticking plasters to restore flights & immediate other problems...These could well become permanent...but yes, as this chart shows...third country access to EU agencies mean zero vote.  Accepting all its rules under ECJ, and so on...Open up the tweet for the chart...

 

Edited July 9, 2018 by Dave Beans

[HairyOb1]

1 minute ago, Peter Hun said:

Two immovable facts

1. NK will never give up nuclear weapons
2. USA will never attack NK while it has nuclear weapon, or ever

Make a peace agreement out of that.

Precisely.  He's done nothing.

CCC, here's an interesting question for you, lover of all things Trump:

What has he achieved?

[ccc]

11 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

He's not adored by all of the folk I talk to, professionally and friends.  I am in a group chat with 11 Americans, through something else, and none of them love him, show pictures of open hostility towards him and they're all educated, successful people.  Maybe that's it.  Genuinely, meet an American abroad and ask them what they think of him.  Meet anyone who wouldn't be too bruised falling out of their family tree and yes, they love him, because he plays to their stupidity.  Watch that support collapse in key areas, as it is, when these tariffs start to bite.  You really aren't following US politics at all if you think it's all ticketed boo over there

I think Trump is taking the glory that the previous presidents hard yards has enabled him to.  I also think he's more supplicant than other Presidents when it comes to Kim too.  But, after saying that, he's still achieved nothing, weapons continue to be built.

So you are in a group chat with 11 people from a country. Yet not a single one voted for the person who won the election.....

Sit back. Take a deep breath. Think about that. 

And then - take a wee pin - and burst your bubble. 

8 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

So, firmer and firmer sanctions, crippling their ability to buy or sell anything on the global market is nothing?  Seriously?  They've been torn apart by sanctions.  Trump makes some rhetoric, which Obama sounded too by the way, and he's solved a problem?  That's almost section-able thinking.

Nothing, I repeat, NOTHING, has changed with regards to NK.

Except meetings between leaders that haven't happened for decades. And the cessation of border aggression that has been ongoing for decades. 

But yes aside from that. 

[ccc]

6 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Precisely.  He's done nothing.

CCC, here's an interesting question for you, lover of all things Trump:

What has he achieved?

He's had a meeting with the North Korean leader. 

Fact. End of. Black and white. 

Or does your delusion go to dismiss it history 

[HairyOb1]

Just now, ccc said:

So you are in a group chat with 11 people from a country. Yet not a single one voted for the person who won the election.....

Sit back. Take a deep breath. Think about that. 

And then - take a wee pin - and burst your bubble. 

Except meetings between leaders that haven't happened for decades. And the cessation of border aggression that has been ongoing for decades. 

But yes aside from that. 

What that I mix with educated people of which a couple, are blue collar?  I'm ok with that thanks.  I lived and worked in America for 3, nigh on 4 years and know a lot of folk, from all walks of life.  Not everyone likes the man, the person or the president.

You don't need meetings to leverage a situation.  Tell me, how many times was anyone bombed under previous administrations?  None.  

What has Trump achieved, come on, answer that..

[HairyOb1]

2 minutes ago, ccc said:

He's had a meeting with the North Korean leader. 

Fact. End of. Black and white. 

Or does your delusion go to dismiss it history 

...and what happened due to that meeting?  Did weapons stop being produced?  Did he hand over the codes?  Has anything changed?

[thehowler]

2 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

There will be sticking plasters to restore flights & immediate other problems

I was only luring you out of the thicket, Dave. Permanent transition status - which would suit the EU - with all we've got bar a vote, might work, but hard to imagine it surviving for long.

Before any of that May will try to get her new relationship deal at least nodded off by the EU - to consider during transition - and then present the Withdrawal Agreement to be approved. The EU want the money so they'll take that. If MPs vote against, we get efforts to suspend Art 50/chaos etc. If it passes, we get two years of the status quo, no vote. If after two years EU refuse to move to the new relationship proposal, we get change of govt, chaos etc.

No chance no deal March 19. Very little chance no deal January 21 - maybe an extension, crumbling.

 

[thehowler]

More likely we get a hard border in NI.

[HairyOb1]

2 minutes ago, thehowler said:

I was only luring you out of the thicket, Dave. Permanent transition status - which would suit the EU - with all we've got bar a vote, might work, but hard to imagine it surviving for long.

Before any of that May will try to get her new relationship deal at least nodded off by the EU - to consider during transition - and then present the Withdrawal Agreement to be approved. The EU want the money so they'll take that. If MPs vote against, we get efforts to suspend Art 50/chaos etc. If it passes, we get two years of the status quo, no vote. If after two years EU refuse to move to the new relationship proposal, we get change of govt, chaos etc.

No chance no deal March 19. Very little chance no deal January 21 - maybe an extension, crumbling.

 

Again, the delusion; the EU want to preserve the EU, so anything else is secondary.  

[CanAffordWontPay]

47 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

He's not a leader, given half of his own party don't support him, and most of the country despises him.  I speak with Americans all the time, and they've moved on from embarrassment to outward hostility.  Even Members of Congress don't want him supporting their bids for re-election.

 

25 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

He's not adored by all of the folk I talk to, professionally and friends.  I am in a group chat with 11 Americans, through something else, and none of them love him, show pictures of open hostility towards him and they're all educated, successful people.  Maybe that's it.  Genuinely, meet an American abroad and ask them what they think of him.  Meet anyone who wouldn't be too bruised falling out of their family tree and yes, they love him, because he plays to their stupidity.  Watch that support collapse in key areas, as it is, when these tariffs start to bite.  You really aren't following US politics at all if you think it's all ticketed boo over there

I think Trump is taking the glory that the previous presidents hard yards has enabled him to.  I also think he's more supplicant than other Presidents when it comes to Kim too.  But, after saying that, he's still achieved nothing, weapons continue to be built.

It's funny reading most your posts Hairy but these two really do sum up how much rubbish you can spout at times. You're basing your opinion on 11 people and a few randoms you've come across on travels?

My own experiance is those that voted for him are happy thus far with his progress. Those that voted dems have doubled down. In the middle have either warmed to him or don't really care. I would say the only ones that are embarssed are the lefties. This is coming from a blue city in a red state close to the border. Although this is something I've seen first hand I still don't consider my anecdotal evidence as remotely close to an accurate picture. The US is a big place. Let's see the lie of the land in a couple of years time. Until then probably worth you considering the same ?

 

Edited July 9, 2018 by CanAffordWontPay

[OnionTerror]

10 minutes ago, thehowler said:

I was only luring you out of the thicket, Dave. Permanent transition status - which would suit the EU - with all we've got bar a vote, might work, but hard to imagine it surviving for long.

Before any of that May will try to get her new relationship deal at least nodded off by the EU - to consider during transition - and then present the Withdrawal Agreement to be approved. The EU want the money so they'll take that. If MPs vote against, we get efforts to suspend Art 50/chaos etc. If it passes, we get two years of the status quo, no vote. If after two years EU refuse to move to the new relationship proposal, we get change of govt, chaos etc.

 No chance no deal March 19. Very little chance no deal January 21 - maybe an extension, crumbling.

 

Yes, thats where are headed under a no deal - leading to a vassal state (as the tweet eludes to)...The EU wont agree to what the UK is planning to put on the table.  No deal, no withdrawal agreement, and so on.

Mrs May has unequivocally ruled out remaining in the EEA, saying "the people who voted leave, didn't voted for this" (paraphrasing) ...The only way to change this stance, is for the leadership to change (for someone who'll change this path of action), then the govt asks for an extension to A50...Can't see it myself, at the moment, at least.

Edited July 9, 2018 by Dave Beans

[HairyOb1]

3 minutes ago, CanAffordWontPay said:

 

It's funny reading most your posts Hairy but these two really do sum up how much rubbish you can spout at times. You're basing your opinion on 11 people and a few randoms you've come across on travels?

My own experiance is those that voted for him are happy thus far with his progress. Those that voted dems have doubled down. In the middle have either warmed to him or don't really care. I would say the only ones that are embarssed are the lefties. This is coming from a blue city in a red state close to the border. Although this is something I've seen first hand I still don't consider my anecdotal evidence as remotely close to an accurate picture. The US is a big place. Let's see the lie of the land in a couple of years time. Until then probably worth you considering the same ?

 

I worked in the US for nigh on 3 years, travelled afterwards for a long time. So that is all bunk I am afraid.  I am basing my opinion based on every single American I have met professionally since 2016, and from the friends I have.  Last week alone, I met 5, one of which is returning to the US after 13 years in the EU. I would be underselling it to suggest he's not looking forward to it.

Meet an educated American, ask them their view. Few will support Trump, and that's telling.

You're from that absolute lovely sunny place that's not at all wetter than Manchester aren't you.

[thehowler]

1 minute ago, Dave Beans said:

Yes, thats where are headed under a no deal - leading to a vassal state (as the tweet eludes to)...The EU wont agree to what the UK is planning to put on the table.  No deal, no withdrawal agreement, and so on.

What does the EU have to lose agreeing to the Withdrawal Agreement? They get status quo - including balancing their budget - and we become a rule-taker. What's the downside for the EU giving us the Withdrawal?

All they have to say is that they'll consider the New Relationship proposal during transition. They're not even supposed to discuss it in detail until we're a third country and are under no pressure to agree to everything in the White Paper - and there isn't enough time. To be clear, MPs will be voting on the Withdrawal Agreement before March - not the finalized future relationship with the EU.

May can say we need some agreement on the New Relationship as part of and in advance of agreeing to the Divorce Payment etc but that was all negotiated by Davis and he's gone like a train. The only stumbling block is the NI backstop and May's advisors have already compromised on that - much to the fury of Davis - by inserting the clause in the December agreement.

[CanAffordWontPay]

Just now, HairyOb1 said:

I worked in the US for nigh on 3 years, travelled afterwards for a long time. So that is all bunk I am afraid.  I am basing my opinion based on every single American I have met professionally since 2016, and from the friends I have.  Last week alone, I met 5, one of which is returning to the US after 13 years in the EU. I would be underselling it to suggest he's not looking forward to it.

Meet an educated American, ask them their view. Few will support Trump, and that's telling.

You're from that absolute lovely sunny place that's not at all wetter than Manchester aren't you.

You what? Think you have me mistaken with someone.

The rest you've just written: Pretty much inline with everything else you write. Certainly like to talk a good game, difficult to believe most of it though.

 

[HairyOb1]

1 minute ago, CanAffordWontPay said:

You what? Think you have me mistaken with someone.

The rest you've just written: Pretty much inline with everything else you write. Certainly like to talk a good game, difficult to believe most of it though.

 

If you're not from Washington, ex pat, then apologies, wrong person.  As for the rest, couldn't give a shit. I loved it over there, software house in my niche area, travel, probably the one place you could go to and not want to leave in the whole world, has it all, including a shit for brains president who's still not achieved anything other than division and ridicule.

[thehowler]

5 minutes ago, thehowler said:

To be clear, MPs will be voting on the Withdrawal Agreement before March - not the finalized future relationship with the EU.

As per...ref only...

The EU27 have been remarkably consistent in maintaining their own unity, and in demanding that the U.K.’s departure be handled sequentially in accordance with the EU treaties — the conclusion first of a formal withdrawal treaty, along with a transition agreement, followed by formal negotiations on a future relationship but only after the U.K. exits on March 29, 2019.

https://www.politico.eu/article/david-davis-boris-johnson-resign-brexit-brussels-sheds-no-tears/

[OnionTerror]

1 minute ago, thehowler said:

What does the EU have to lose agreeing to the Withdrawal Agreement? They get status quo - including balancing their budget - and we become a rule-taker. What's the downside for the EU giving us the Withdrawal?

 All they have to say is that they'll consider the New Relationship proposal during transition. They're not even supposed to discuss it in detail until we're a third country and are under no pressure to agree to everything in the White Paper - and there isn't enough time. To be clear, MPs will be voting on the Withdrawal Agreement before March - not the finalized future relationship with the EU.

 May can say we need some agreement on the New Relationship as part of and in advance of agreeing to the Divorce Payment etc but that was all negotiated by Davis and he's gone like a train. The only stumbling block is the NI backstop and May's advisors have already compromised on that - much to the fury of Davis - by inserting the clause in the December agreement.

What Mrs May is trying to "develop" (ahem) is an attempt to create an end state..Thus, after March 2019, we go through the withdrawal agreement...

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/691366/20180319_DRAFT_WITHDRAWAL_AGREEMENT.pdf

...then through to the end state.  However, if the end state is cobblers, then there will be no withdrawal agreement.  The UK falls out of EU treaties at the end of March next year.  There wont be a withdrawal agreement, if we've already fallen out out of the treaties, and we'll be a third country.  All the timescales of course have been agreed with the UK..

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86900

The underlying point here, of course, is that come the October European Council, the UK and EU negotiators will be expected to have agreed the text of a formal Withdrawal Agreement (including a protocol on the much-debated Irish border question), which will then formally be presented to the European Council signifying the end of the negotiations. 

Theoretically, at this point, the text must then be approved by the European Council, by the European Parliament and then by the UK Government – the latter requiring the assent of both Houses of Parliament. 

However, it is not only the Withdrawal Agreement that must be finalised. The parties must also conclude discussions on the framework for a future relationship, taking in trade, security and much else – with the production of a political declaration, the text of which has to be submitted for agreement by all parties.