Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Confusion of VIs]

One to file under No shit Sherlock:

“Trade agreements are long and complex and invariably take more than five years to agree. It is therefore very likely that the transitional period after the UK leaves the EU will last until 2024.”

Also mentions the fact that the EU cannot legally agree a trade deal that is better than those given to other "third countries" 

 

Edited December 10, 2017 by Confusion of VIs

[Confusion of VIs]

Delusional Express article, you would think with all the time they spend obsessing over Brexit they could at least understand the basics of leaving and that our agreement to pay our exit bill buys us nothing more than the EU agreeing to talk about a trade deal 

Brexiteers’ threat to EU: Give UK gold-plated trade deal or Britain pays NOTHING 

[OnionTerror]

22 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

One to file under No shit Sherlock:

“Trade agreements are long and complex and invariably take more than five years to agree. It is therefore very likely that the transitional period after the UK leaves the EU will last until 2024.”

Also mentions the fact that the EU cannot legally agree a trade deal that is better than those given to other "third countries" 

 

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86699

Quote

Next week we will see the EU's negotiating guidelines proper. Then we will begin to see the mountain facing us, and how little we have actually progressed. And it is at this point, we will realise that the UK government is not even close to a deal. 

If, as expected, the focus of the next round of talks is on the transition period, then the first crisis will not be long in coming. The terms the EU is dictating amount to full conformity with the entire EU acquis - including new laws that take effect - and subordination to the ECJ. 

This, in effect, will mean an extension of UK membership for the period, but without the representation . It will be the worst of all possible worlds – "pay, no say" with a vengeance. At the end of the period, we will be no further forward for having kicked the can down the road. 

All the old problems attendant on our leaving the Single Market will still be there waiting for us, and the EU will have little incentive to do anything other than offer an extension.

For the moment, though, we have to go through the tedious charade of self-congratulation and misdirection, while almost everyone ignores the obvious – the crucial issue highlighted by Booker in today's column (no link yet). Simply, it was in no one's interests, and especially not the EU's interest, that the talks should collapse, not least because no one on either side is yet remotely prepared for what will eventually happen when the UK leaves the Single Market. 

And, when push comes to shove, it was all very well for Theresa May to say there will be no "hard border" in Ireland. But how telling, Booker adds, that she gave no hint as to how this miracle could be achieved. What we saw on Friday, therefore, was Mrs May not just them "kicking the can down the road, but the whole cannery".

And, for all that, we are still left with precisely those same problems which became inevitable when Mrs May announced in January that we were to leave not just the Single Market but also the European Economic Area (EEA). Remaining in the EEA was always the only practical way in which we could have left the EU but preserved those "frictionless" borders she said she wanted. 
--------

However, facts don't go away because they are ignored, any more than does reality. Soon enough, they reassert themselves – largely because they must. Sadly, their arrival is often accompanied by turmoil and pain. 

That, it seems, is the destination for Brexit. The noise level is far too high for any rational argument to survive, and is set to get higher. But, while the perpetual fudge can stave off the effects of reality for a long, long time, eventually it comes. Reality may be on hold, but it will arrive.

Edited December 10, 2017 by Dave Beans

[Futuroid]

[Peter Hun]

6 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Delusional Express article, you would think with all the time they spend obsessing over Brexit they could at least understand the basics of leaving and that our agreement to pay our exit bill buys us nothing more than the EU agreeing to talk about a trade deal 

Brexiteers’ threat to EU: Give UK gold-plated trade deal or Britain pays NOTHING 

If they understood the basics they wouldn't be Brexiteers.

[Futuroid]

6 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Delusional Express article, you would think with all the time they spend obsessing over Brexit they could at least understand the basics of leaving and that our agreement to pay our exit bill buys us nothing more than the EU agreeing to talk about a trade deal 

Brexiteers’ threat to EU: Give UK gold-plated trade deal or Britain pays NOTHING 

And the counterpoint - "Global Britain" faces a tough time because the world is a full of much bigger players, some of whom spent a looong time negotiating their own trade deals with the EU. 

Global powers lobby to stop special Brexit deal for UK

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/09/global-powers-lobby-to-stop-special-brexit-deal-for-uk

"Theresa May’s hopes of securing a unique post-Brexit trade deal with the EU were under threat on Saturday night as Brussels said it was coming under international pressure to deny Britain special treatment.

After a week that saw May reach a deal with the EU that will allow Brexit talks to move forward on to future trade relations, EU officials insisted a bespoke deal more favourable to the UK than other non-EU nations was out of the question.

One EU source close to the talks said: “We have been approached by a number of [non-member] countries expressing concerns and making it clear that it would constitute a major problem for them if suddenly the UK were to get better terms than they get.”

Oh dear, very sad.

 

[Futuroid]

36 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

If they understood the basics they wouldn't be Brexiteers.

 Indeed.

[Peter Hun]

Majority of UK thinks Government is ignoring critical issues due to Brexit, poll reveals

Exclusive: Survey shows almost 60 per cent think ministers neglecting challenges facing country

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-uk-government-ignoring-issues-health-education-eu-talks-latest-a8100231.html

 

The many ways Brexit is damaging the UK...

[Futuroid]

12 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Majority of UK thinks Government is ignoring critical issues due to Brexit, poll reveals

Exclusive: Survey shows almost 60 per cent think ministers neglecting challenges facing country

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-uk-government-ignoring-issues-health-education-eu-talks-latest-a8100231.html

 

The many ways Brexit is damaging the UK...

Yep, I don't want to blow my own trumpet ()... but... I was one of many on here who predicted this.

With Brexit related legislation taking up the majority of scheduled parliamentary time over the next two years - and most likely beyond - you can expect sudden crisis after crisis in the NHS, the economy, housing, etc as the collective eye is taken off the ball(s).

[ccc]

40 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

And the counterpoint - "Global Britain" faces a tough time because the world is a full of much bigger players, some of whom spent a looong time negotiating their own trade deals with the EU. 

Global powers lobby to stop special Brexit deal for UK

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/09/global-powers-lobby-to-stop-special-brexit-deal-for-uk

"Theresa May’s hopes of securing a unique post-Brexit trade deal with the EU were under threat on Saturday night as Brussels said it was coming under international pressure to deny Britain special treatment.

After a week that saw May reach a deal with the EU that will allow Brexit talks to move forward on to future trade relations, EU officials insisted a bespoke deal more favourable to the UK than other non-EU nations was out of the question.

One EU source close to the talks said: “We have been approached by a number of [non-member] countries expressing concerns and making it clear that it would constitute a major problem for them if suddenly the UK were to get better terms than they get.”

Oh dear, very sad.

 

What - all 6 out of 194 ? 

The negative delusion of some Remainers is truly a wonder to behold. 

[Funn3r]

16 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

With Brexit related legislation taking up the majority of scheduled parliamentary time over the next two years - and most likely beyond - you can expect sudden crisis after crisis in the NHS, the economy, housing, etc as the collective eye is taken off the ball(s).

The horrible crises are going to happen anyway as a result of years of can-kicking after the 2008 GFC. I agree that the extra pressure caused by Brexit "negotiations" (although I prefer to use the word clusterfúckery) will make everything even worse. The government will then blame the entire thing on Brexit and leave the pro-Brexit community holding the bag.

As a not-rich renting boomer I do get fed up with being told I am the cause of everyone's problems and it will be a great relief for Brexiters to be the target instead for a change.

[PalmerEldritch]

22 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Yep, I don't want to blow my own trumpet ()... but... I was one of many on here who predicted this.

With Brexit related legislation taking up the majority of scheduled parliamentary time over the next two years - and most likely beyond - you can expect sudden crisis after crisis in the NHS, the economy, housing, etc as the collective eye is taken off the ball(s).

Yes, there will be plagues of locusts, it will rain frogs and Brexit will take the first born of every single British citizen (especially those who voted to leave the promised land).

 

[rollover]

 

Quote

 

Britain’s Final EU Withdrawal Bill Could Cost £100bn

David Jones, one of the few Tory Brexiteers to publicly criticise the deal Prime Minister reached with the European Commission in order to trigger trade talks, said the UK could end up paying a “monstrous” exit settlement two-and-a-half times the £39 billion figure floated by the Government. The ex-minister said: “‘Government sources’ were quoted saying the price tag was likely to be £39 billion – down from an earlier-reported £50 billion. However, the deal document contains no such precise figure, reduced or otherwise.

“What it does contain is a set of highly technical mechanisms we would have to follow to work out the eventual Brexit cost to the UK.

“And those mechanisms could land us with a bill, on some estimates, of as much as £100 billion – a figure EU sources were touting earlier this year.”  huffingtonpost

 

Ohh deer! And Brexiters thought on Friday what a fantastic deal it is.

[Funn3r]

3 minutes ago, PalmerEldritch said:

Yes, there will be plagues of locusts, it will rain frogs and Brexit will take the first born of every single British citizen (especially those who voted to leave the promised land).

 

I have lived through locust cloud attacks and it is manageable. Never had frog rain but they are quite nice creatures actually. In living memory families have seen their first-born snatched and drafted to be killed in useless banker wars. Brexit, if it happens, will be worse than the first two and we pray that the third one never happens again.

[Futuroid]

9 minutes ago, PalmerEldritch said:

Yes, there will be plagues of locusts, it will rain frogs and Brexit will take the first born of every single British citizen (especially those who voted to leave the promised land).

 

Not sure what your point is*, we knew as long ago as June this year that Brexit would completely dominate the parliamentary timetable:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/queens-speech-today-latest-brexit-dominates-theresa-may-agenda-eight-bills-eu-withdrawal-a7800426.html

Basically the UK parliament has become a wheel re-invention society for the next decade / however long it takes.

* = It's OK, I'm used to seeing pointless posts from Brexitluvvers .

[rollover]

 

Quote

 

Cornish Caller Can't Stop Laughing At The "Idiots" Still Supporting Brexit

This LBC caller couldn't contain his laughter while discussing the Brexit negotiations. Mike in Cornwall thought the whole process was hilarious, describing Leave voters as idiots, particularly after the the first phase of talks outlined Britain's new-found inferiority in relation to Europe. He told Matt: "I have never laughed as much, ever, as seeing the shambles that those idiots that voted Brexit have got this country into.

"Thanks very much everybody, they've now lumbered us with a £39bn bill, for an open back door from Ireland. "A country that I fly to every other a week, on a driving license. This is utterly, utterly unbelievable. "I think they were absolutely hood-winked and conned, dare I say gullible.

"I guess any of us with any political savvy realised then we were being fed a lie. Come on, we're a tiny country, an offshore island off the coast of Europe. Who do these people think we are? "We have to face reality. LBC

 

Face the reality is always very difficult as Brexit supporters will soon realize. Their Brexit expectations and reality does not match.

[ccc]

52 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

The horrible crises are going to happen anyway as a result of years of can-kicking after the 2008 GFC. I agree that the extra pressure caused by Brexit "negotiations" (although I prefer to use the word clusterfúckery) will make everything even worse. The government will then blame the entire thing on Brexit and leave the pro-Brexit community holding the bag.

As a not-rich renting boomer I do get fed up with being told I am the cause of everyone's problems and it will be a great relief for Brexiters to be the target instead for a change.

Yes from the start everything band anything "bad" will be blamed on Brexit.

It's the get out clause for the general mess this country is in. 

[jonb2]

5 minutes ago, ccc said:

Yes from the start everything band anything "bad" will be blamed on Brexit.

It's the get out clause for the general mess this country is in. 

We have seen our politicians without their emperor's new clothes during the last 18 months - imagine what 30-40 years of this inbred incompetence has done to the country.

ALL the problems here are home-grown.

Any colour of Brexit WILL make things even worse. It's the final straw to God knows what. I am betting, as you know, on a Legutum mass asset sale. So yes, you are right, the final straw will get the blame.

[MARTINX9]

1 hour ago, Futuroid said:

Yep, I don't want to blow my own trumpet ()... but... I was one of many on here who predicted this.

With Brexit related legislation taking up the majority of scheduled parliamentary time over the next two years - and most likely beyond - you can expect sudden crisis after crisis in the NHS, the economy, housing, etc as the collective eye is taken off the ball(s).

We have had far too much legislation and 'reform' and poor delivery in the last decade or more.

You don't need more legislation to build houses or fund the NHS - you merely need provide the funds and resources to deliver it in the Budget and spending reviews. Having very little primary legislation might for example let the NHS get on eith health care delivery rather than focusing on endless reorganisations and restructures.

[MARTINX9]

15 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

It really beggars belief that anyone could think anything other than this.  I find it odd brexiteers are complaining about the behaviour of the EU, when they were suggesting we should stick the hoof into the EU over negotiations not but 5 months ago.  Butt hurt is an american term I think fits well here.  I said weeks ago, that when the news comes that we're not going to leave in any meaningful way, there's going to be an awful lot of bed wetting and so it seems...

Australia and NZ have family reunion rights, as several of my family members have gone over there on it.

Yes - for the parents and spouses and kids of Australian and NZ citizens not parents or spouses or kids of Polish or Bulgarian citizens. And it is not automatic, you need to apply,  pay a fee of 6000 Dollars, demonstrate you can support your elderly non citizen parents, they must pass a test showing they are in good health (presumably you want them with you as their health may be failing) and if they look like they are becoming a burden on the Aussie State they can potentially be asked to leave at a future date.

As the application website makes clear there can be a wait of 'up to 30 years' to get approved for the Aussie aged parent visa. And many of those parents who aren't citizens could be in Europe thousands of miles away  - not a 90 minute Ryanair flight away.

https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa-1/804-

You can now apply for an even more expensive fast track parent visa but that costs 20000 AUD to apply for and provides no free health care or benefits for at least two years - your sponsor must agree to pick up your costs or you have to take up private insurance which won't be cheap for anyone over 75.

https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa-1/143-

Under our deal these elderly arrivers from EU member states - as now -  will be eligible for free health care and social care and welfare immediately and can just turn up in effect merely at the instigation of their EU citizen children here . Certainly no 20000 AUD fee or up to 30 year wait or requirement for you to fund their health or social care.

The health and social care of an elderly person can cost shedloads - £60k a year is now the average cost of a care home. And if they don't have assets of £23k - quite likely if they come from Eastern Europe - it will all be free while British elderly who have paid in for 60 years have to pay full cost.

i have no issue with providing free health care and social care in retirement to people who have worked and paid in during their lives in the UK. But just turning up in your 70s having paid nothing in and getting it when neither you or your child are UK citizens - sorry that's not really on!

 

Edited December 10, 2017 by MARTINX9

[dryrot]

On 07/12/2017 at 1:46 PM, Confusion of VIs said:

According to the OCED its already happening. Even before Brexit happens they calculate we have already lost enough GDP to more than offset getting all of our EU payments back. 

Cherry picking good news doesn't change anything. Google was committed to its expansion 5 years ago (I went to an event commemorating this before they had even started building their massive King Cross head quarters.  I believe Facebook's expansion was also planned year ago.

Remember Michael Bloomberg's statement a couple of weeks ago when he opened Bloombergs new +£1bn European headquarters, "if we had known the UK was going to leave the EU we probably wouldn't have built it in London"  

As the Treasuries refusal to amend their forecasts shows, Project fear is pretty much on track. If we don't get a amicable deal we can look forward to Project fear +

Or else  just move the forecast back a few years? You cant lose! For all I know everything will collapse, but the fact remains that they  (including the OECD) all predicted collapse from the Brexit vote and they were proved wrong.

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, ccc said:

What - all 6 out of 194 ? 

The negative delusion of some Remainers is truly a wonder to behold. 

What delusion? It only takes one country to mount a legal challenge.

[dryrot]

24 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

Yes - for the parents and spouses and kids of Australian and NZ citizens not parents or spouses or kids of Polish or Bulgarian citizens. And it is not automatic, you need to apply,  pay a fee of 6000 Dollars, demonstrate you can support your elderly non citizen parents, they must pass a test showing they are in good health (presumably you want them with you as their health may be failing) and if they look like they are becoming a burden on the Aussie State they can potentially be asked to leave at a future date.

As the application website makes clear there can be a wait of 'up to 30 years' to get approved for the Aussie aged parent visa. And many of those parents who aren't citizens could be in Europe thousands of miles away  - not a 90 minute Ryanair flight away.

https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa-1/804-

Under our deal these elderly arrivers will be eligible for free health care and social care and welfare immediately and can just turn up in effect merely at the instigation of their EU citizen children. Certainly no fee or up to 30 year wait.

The health and social care of an elderly person can cost shedloads - £60 a year is now the average cost of a care home in London. And if they don't have assets of £23k - quite likely if they come from Eastern Europe - it will all be free while British elderly who have paid in for 60 years have to pay full cost.

One of the great things about Brexit is that these issues are becoming clear, and in the mainstream. Don't forget you are describing the current arrangement, (and a Remain vote would have made it worse). People are more and more aware of just how much the EU interferes with our country. Wrt movement, Hugh Bennett (a strong Brexiteer) is more sanguine:  http://brexitcentral.com/uk-eu-deal-say-good-britain/ 

Edited December 10, 2017 by dryrot
spelling

[dryrot]

Hi

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/eu-poland-hungary-czech-republic-refugee-crisis-handle-legal-proceeding-lawsuit-european-commission-a7789161.html

"The European Commission has launched legal proceedings against three European Union member states who refused to take in refugees.  Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic have been accused of not fulfilling their obligations outlined in a 2015 plan to relocate migrants from Italy and Greece, to help ease their burden."

How pleased I am that we are getting out of the EU. QMV forces countries to obey central Brussels diktats. Germany welcomes 1m "migrants", then dumps them on other EU countries

[ccc]

51 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

We have seen our politicians without their emperor's new clothes during the last 18 months - imagine what 30-40 years of this inbred incompetence has done to the country.

ALL the problems here are home-grown.

Any colour of Brexit WILL make things even worse. It's the final straw to God knows what. I am betting, as you know, on a Legutum mass asset sale. So yes, you are right, the final straw will get the blame.

Most of the UK's problems are our own doing. By saying they ALL are though is ridiculous. 

That's saying 40 years within the EU has had zero positive or negative impacts. 

Again - ridiculous comment imo.

28 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

Yes - for the parents and spouses and kids of Australian and NZ citizens not parents or spouses or kids of Polish or Bulgarian citizens. And it is not automatic, you need to apply,  pay a fee of 6000 Dollars, demonstrate you can support your elderly non citizen parents, they must pass a test showing they are in good health (presumably you want them with you as their health may be failing) and if they look like they are becoming a burden on the Aussie State they can potentially be asked to leave at a future date.

As the application website makes clear there can be a wait of 'up to 30 years' to get approved for the Aussie aged parent visa. And many of those parents who aren't citizens could be in Europe thousands of miles away  - not a 90 minute Ryanair flight away.

https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa-1/804-

You can now apply for an even more expensive fast track parent visa but that costs 20000 AUD to apply for and provides no free health care or benefits for at least two years - your sponsor must agree to pick up your costs or you have to take up private insurance which won't be cheap for anyone over 75.

https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa-1/143-

Under our deal these elderly arrivers from EU member states - as now -  will be eligible for free health care and social care and welfare immediately and can just turn up in effect merely at the instigation of their EU citizen children here . Certainly no 20000 AUD fee or up to 30 year wait or requirement for you to fund their health or social care.

The health and social care of an elderly person can cost shedloads - £60k a year is now the average cost of a care home. And if they don't have assets of £23k - quite likely if they come from Eastern Europe - it will all be free while British elderly who have paid in for 60 years have to pay full cost.

i have no issue with providing free health care and social care in retirement to people who have worked and paid in during their lives in the UK. But just turning up in your 70s having paid nothing in and getting it when neither you or your child are UK citizens - sorry that's not really on!

 

Yep. It's insanity.

12 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

What delusion? It only takes one country to mount a legal challenge.

Oh come on - it was a stupid point by stating there are loads of other "bigger" trading nations out there across the planet. There aren't. End of story.