Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[winkie]

We have always had power to control immigration we chose not to control it, other European countries managed to, we embraced immigration where nobody was counted in or out, other European countries chose to know and count who was from other European countries and where they were living..... we were very generous with our benefits and housing not all European countries were....we have not controlled immigration from outside the EU either very effectively....they talk about over one million illegal people here who have stayed outside student or visa terms....how can the EU be blamed for that?.....anyway I don't agree immigration was the main reason many voted to leave the EU.

Edited October 17, 2017 by winkie

[kzb]

32 minutes ago, winkie said:

anyway I don't agree immigration was the main reason many voted to leave the EU.

It depends which poll you believe but it's always in the top 3 reasons.

[winkie]

1 minute ago, kzb said:

It depends which poll you believe but it's always in the top 3 reasons.

I agree that some people saw high immigration over a very short period of time not beneficial for their own personal growth and prosperity, high immigration of low skills pulling wages down, greater competition for homes, jobs and social services....bit like if we built several million new homes it would force the price of homes down (can't do that now can we)....but some have gained massively from high immigration, better profits for them, cheaper labour, guaranteed rents....what we got was high influx of immigration from the eastern block countries just as we were trying to deal with the thousands of asylum seekers.....it is all about creating a balance, but the balance was tipped because TPTB have not managed it very well.....consequences.

[pig]

6 hours ago, kzb said:

Is EVERYONE on here in software ?

No wonder there is hardly any sense on this forum.

[Confusion of VIs]

5 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

10 billion from tariffs, you can't work that out? Seriously?

Fifth largest economy in the world and the origin of the Lingua Franca. You sound like a frightened child.

60 billion of QE a month, 2.3 TRILLION and counting, to buy a stunning......1.9% growth. Wowsers, what a bargain lol

Spain is an example to the world: 40% youth unemployment, 18% unemployment overall. One day......

40% or less without the Rotterdam effect, and FALLING.

5% prices??

Joint bottom with Italy. They're in the Euro, what's happened there then? You must have "forgotten" to mention them. Oh dear......We finished 2016 top, AFTER the leave vote. What happened there? Oh yes, you're a cherry picker.

 

The London effect trumps the Rotterdam effect. Strip out these distortions and our trade with the EU is still a lot nearer 50% than the oft quoted 44%.

 

[rollover]

Quote

Brexit must be agreed by end of year to avoid firms fleeing abroad and causing new financial crisis, warns London Stock Exchange boss Telegraph

Going, going, gone. It's the top of the end.

[Sheeple Splinter]

6 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

Are you really that stupid sheeple?

I have answered this lots, and lots, and lots of times.  I didn't use this as a complaint, I merely suggested that people voting to leave because of FOM will see the same level of immigration, and the resulting family movements and stresses on services.

I then went to say I believe in FOM in ALL scenarios. You understand this don't you?  You see I don't mind seeing immigrants from ANYWHERE having FOM here.  I believe in OPEN BORDERS.

Do you get that?  You keep using this as a stick to beat me, when you're not understanding my position - I said one form of immigration will be changed for another, with exactly the same issues - That was in query to Leavers banging on about control over immigration.

Are you that dumb?  Here, once more.

After brexit, if it ever happens, one form of migration will change for another, with exactly the same worries that caused you to vote leave, in that families will come, benefits will be claimed, jobs will be taken and services used.  

I don't care about it, it doesn't worry me or concern me, as I believe in OPEN FOM.

...and yet still YOU refuse to answer the question.  Illuminating.

Two weeks of obfuscating and all you needed to do was answer this question:

Quote

You have posted several times about your concerns regarding non-EU visa applicants e.g. Right to reside, bringing family over, undercutting wages, paying less tax... Leaving aside the advantages of the visa system, how is this any different to the Leavers' concerns regarding FoM?

A. It isn't.

The question was posed following your, Will Self quote, leavers are statistically more likely to be racists or just they are racists because they wanted FOM to end. The concerns Brexiters gave are just the same as the ones you gave for non-EU immigrants.

Ergo, if you think Brexiters are racist then you must be too. Of course, if Brexiters were just stating facts and you're just stating facts then that is not racist.

Open borders would be a disaster - imagine the 2015 migrant crisis x10

[Sheeple Splinter]

7 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

They usually do come with pages and pages of information describing the factors modeled, their reliability of otherwise, and lots of external factors that have the potential to  invalidate the forecast. Reading these will give you a good idea of how credible or not the predictions are.

However, all this bumf does not make for good copy so is almost always ignored:  

E.g. the Treasuries forecast of the impact of a Leave vote assumed that A50 would be submitted within days and that the Treasury/BOE would do nothing to mitigate the impact of the vote. Given that it was obvious prior to the vote that neither of these major factors was true, you would have expected any informed observer to conclude that the report had no credibility, strangely  I don't recall a single paper picking up on this.     

Do you mean this one:

Quote

Fact-checking the Treasury’s latest Brexit report

The conclusions are valid but be sceptical about the details

https://www.ft.com/content/d05c4b60-20d8-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d?mhq5j=e5

[macca13]

Has the Austria vote on Sunday been mentioned yet? Far right/right coalition. Anti imigration anti open boarders.. 

CAT

PIGEON 

AMONGST

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/10/16/opinions/austria-nationalism-hockenos-opinion/index.html

I’m hoping there will be no EU soon save all these arguments..  

[Sheeple Splinter]

6 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

1. What does the edl have to do with it?

2. Do you beat your wife?

3. Answer him, do you think the British are culturally closer to Europeans or Asians?

1. It was a question based on HO1 having more in common with Europeans and ignoring my comments/quote on British Asians.

2. Do you beat your mother?

3. I think my previous post might give you a hint...

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

9 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

Yes, I know, being a supporter of something that is real, proven, is exactly the same as a mythical land of cake and eating it, which was your proposal - Lets all stay where we are, but also move about freely...

The EU is about 5 minutes old. Pursuit of a single currency has thrown several countries under the bus and the largest members have a growing populist hardcore right wing political movement. The tolerant large country without a hardcore right wing faction, the UK, decided (in a democrat referendum) it wanted to leave the EU.

If that's real and proven continuing EU success, I'd hate to see things going badly.

 

[Confusion of VIs]

23 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Do you mean this one:

https://www.ft.com/content/d05c4b60-20d8-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d?mhq5j=e5

Yes, I missed that report on it and now see there were others at the time. Perhaps by then I had had enough referendum propaganda, from both sides for one lifetime.   

[thecrashingisles]

2 hours ago, macca13 said:

Has the Austria vote on Sunday been mentioned yet? Far right/right coalition. Anti imigration anti open boarders.. 

CAT

PIGEON 

AMONGST

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/10/16/opinions/austria-nationalism-hockenos-opinion/index.html

I’m hoping there will be no EU soon save all these arguments..  

Which one of Austria's borders do they want to close?  The one with Germany?  With Italy?  With Switzerland?  With the Czech Republic?  With Slovenia?  With Slovakia?  With Hungary?

[thecrashingisles]

2 hours ago, EmmaRoid said:

The EU is about 5 minutes old. Pursuit of a single currency has thrown several countries under the bus and the largest members have a growing populist hardcore right wing political movement. The tolerant large country without a hardcore right wing faction, the UK, decided (in a democrat referendum) it wanted to leave the EU.

If that's real and proven continuing EU success, I'd hate to see things going badly.

Did you not notice the global financial crisis ten years ago?  Do you think the EU is also to blame for the election of Trump?

[macca13]

3 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

Which one of Austria's borders do they want to close?  The one with Germany?  With Italy?  With Switzerland?  With the Czech Republic?  With Slovenia?  With Slovakia?  With Hungary?

The UK are number 1 in Europe for countries that visit extremist websites the most.. it is a road to ruin.. I really do fear for my kids what sort of messed up country it has become due to imigration..There would be “0” terrorists in this country if we had not had historical migration.. Not politically correct but it’s a fact.. Angela Merkel has sentenced the people of Europe to increased crime and terror.. for what? Left wing stupid dumb **** ignorance.. The same ignorance that pro EU people want more of.. for prosperity.. no thanks I’d rather eat my own head..

By the way pro EU persons.. our economy is ducked.. so are lots of other EU countries.. so where do you get off keep telling us leave voters that the EU makes us prosperous.. can you do maths? 2 trillion of debt.. if that’s your idea winning then you must be Arsenal supporters.. 4th again.. yes but we must keep wenger he makes us successful.. ? clearly yes so much to look forward too.. 

so yes, let Austria build lots of walls to protect themselves from stupid arses that want more lovely people and hopefully they will give the EU’s migrant quota’s the finger a long with other Eastern block country’s.. 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/17/uk-most-severe-terror-threat-ever-mi5-islamist

Edited October 18, 2017 by macca13

[Up the spout]

11 hours ago, ZeroSumGame said:

Good points. It's dropped into a charade now. The EU don't think Theresa May is long for the job, and the Germans are openly mocking Johnson. Amber Rudd, just the latest to contradict Theresa May. It's all a bit undignified for TM. She ought to step down or call a general election.

It's all looking a bit Dad's Army / Rising Damp / The Thick of It now, isn't it? I might start paying a bit more attention just for the laughs.

[sPinwheel]

2 hours ago, macca13 said:

The UK are number 1 in Europe for countries that visit extremist websites the most.. it is a road to ruin.. I really do fear for my kids what sort of messed up country it has become due to imigration..There would be “0” terrorists in this country if we had not had historical migration.. Not politically correct but it’s a fact.. Angela Merkel has sentenced the people of Europe to increased crime and terror.. for what? Left wing stupid dumb **** ignorance.. The same ignorance that pro EU people want more of.. for prosperity.. no thanks I’d rather eat my own head..

By the way pro EU persons.. our economy is ducked.. so are lots of other EU countries.. so where do you get off keep telling us leave voters that the EU makes us prosperous.. can you do maths? 2 trillion of debt.. if that’s your idea winning then you must be Arsenal supporters.. 4th again.. yes but we must keep wenger he makes us successful.. ? clearly yes so much to look forward too.. 

so yes, let Austria build lots of walls to protect themselves from stupid arses that want more lovely people and hopefully they will give the EU’s migrant quota’s the finger a long with other Eastern block country’s.. 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/17/uk-most-severe-terror-threat-ever-mi5-islamist

Austria are going to build a wall around thier whole country?

Edited October 18, 2017 by sPinwheel

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

7 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

Did you not notice the global financial crisis ten years ago?  Do you think the EU is also to blame for the election of Trump?

What the ****** are you on about?

[Futuroid]

10 hours ago, macca13 said:

Has the Austria vote on Sunday been mentioned yet? Far right/right coalition. Anti imigration anti open boarders.. 

Austria would be unable to trade effectively without open borders (note spelling).

[kzb]

On ‎17‎/‎10‎/‎2017 at 8:49 AM, HairyOb1 said:

This is the impact on prices if we go full mental and choose a hard brexit, and with it, WTO rules:

 

This didn't attract much comment.

I don't know where you got it from, but this is similar to that FT story about dropping farm incomes by 75% IF subsidies are reduced by 75%. .

Other people have more expertise, but I think this chart assumes we will retain all EU tariffs at their current rates after Brexit.

I don't think anyone intends this.  There's no point in the UK having an import tariff on oranges for example (which we do at present from non-EU countries).

Many Brexit economists favour dropping all import tariffs.  That means food will be cheaper.  Not so sure about it myself in all sectors though.

[HairyOb1]

12 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Two weeks of obfuscating and all you needed to do was answer this question:

A. It isn't.

The question was posed following your, Will Self quote, leavers are statistically more likely to be racists or just they are racists because they wanted FOM to end. The concerns Brexiters gave are just the same as the ones you gave for non-EU immigrants.

Ergo, if you think Brexiters are racist then you must be too. Of course, if Brexiters were just stating facts and you're just stating facts then that is not racist.

Open borders would be a disaster - imagine the 2015 migrant crisis x10

No, that's absolutely not the case - Brexiteers aren't stating facts, they are actually using their vote to voice complaint, as you have many times.  I, however, am simply pointing out the folly of having such a view, given immigration will not change and the situation you're all complaining about, insist will be 'fixed' will not be, it will continue, unabated, but from a different demographic: I have never suggested I have concerns about it, quite the opposite, you made this comment up, whist I actually welcome it. The fact you keep labouring the wrong point, projecting by accusing me of being racist, when everything I have said is factual.  I voted for FOM, I agree in open borders.  How on earth can that be the same as voting to stop FOM and closing our borders for more control?

You can't simply fabricate someone else's argument, just so you can make yourself feel better than you obviously do. It's obvious to everyone here, you're making up my 'concerns' when I have none, none whatsoever.  Grizzly and I discussed my view regarding open borders.  How can I have concerns, if I want open borders; you make no sense at all.  Stop fabricating arguments, it makes you look a bit touched.

As I said, projecting.

And still not answering my question.

Look, don't beat yourself up SS, if Will Self is right, then at least you're in majority company, which I am sure agrees with you.

Edited October 18, 2017 by HairyOb1

[HairyOb1]

33 minutes ago, kzb said:

This didn't attract much comment.

I don't know where you got it from, but this is similar to that FT story about dropping farm incomes by 75% IF subsidies are reduced by 75%. .

Other people have more expertise, but I think this chart assumes we will retain all EU tariffs at their current rates after Brexit.

I don't think anyone intends this.  There's no point in the UK having an import tariff on oranges for example (which we do at present from non-EU countries).

Many Brexit economists favour dropping all import tariffs.  That means food will be cheaper.  Not so sure about it myself in all sectors though.

If we drop out with no deal, we automatically revert to these tariffs.  If we drop all tariffs coming in, and still have tariffs exporting, which is what it appears you're advocating, then what do you think happens to the UK?

We import a hell of a lot of food into the UK from the EU, so what you're saying is 'Hey, EU, we don't care if you put tariffs on us, as we're not going to put tariffs on you, so there...'.

[knock out johnny]

6 hours ago, macca13 said:

The UK are number 1 in Europe for countries that visit extremist websites the most.. it is a road to ruin.. I really do fear for my kids what sort of messed up country it has become due to imigration..There would be “0” terrorists in this country if we had not had historical migration.. Not politically correct but it’s a fact.. Angela Merkel has sentenced the people of Europe to increased crime and terror.. for what? Left wing stupid dumb **** ignorance.. The same ignorance that pro EU people want more of.. for prosperity.. no thanks I’d rather eat my own head..

By the way pro EU persons.. our economy is ducked.. so are lots of other EU countries.. so where do you get off keep telling us leave voters that the EU makes us prosperous.. can you do maths? 2 trillion of debt.. if that’s your idea winning then you must be Arsenal supporters.. 4th again.. yes but we must keep wenger he makes us successful.. ? clearly yes so much to look forward too.. 

so yes, let Austria build lots of walls to protect themselves from stupid arses that want more lovely people and hopefully they will give the EU’s migrant quota’s the finger a long with other Eastern block country’s.. 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/17/uk-most-severe-terror-threat-ever-mi5-islamist

Oh dear - another Trump fanboi

Zero terrorists if we had no immigration - what not even Irish terrorists?

What is this phobia of foreign people? It's an obsession

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

1 hour ago, HairyOb1 said:

No, that's absolutely not the case - Brexiteers aren't stating facts, they are actually using their vote to voice complaint, as you have many times.  I, however, am simply pointing out the folly of having such a view, given immigration will not change and the situation you're all complaining about, insist will be 'fixed' will not be, it will continue, unabated, but from a different demographic: I have never suggested I have concerns about it, quite the opposite, you made this comment up, whist I actually welcome it. The fact you keep labouring the wrong point, projecting by accusing me of being racist, when everything I have said is factual.  I voted for FOM, I agree in open borders.  How on earth can that be the same as voting to stop FOM and closing our borders for more control?

You can't simply fabricate someone else's argument, just so you can make yourself feel better than you obviously do. It's obvious to everyone here, you're making up my 'concerns' when I have none, none whatsoever.  Grizzly and I discussed my view regarding open borders.  How can I have concerns, if I want open borders; you make no sense at all.  Stop fabricating arguments, it makes you look a bit touched.

As I said, projecting.

And still not answering my question.

Look, don't beat yourself up SS, if Will Self is right, then at least you're in majority company, which I am sure agrees with you.

You clearly do have issues. What sort of person would say they hope the UK turns into a 3rd world hole just to teach the British people a lesson? 

IF immigration remains an issue post Brexit, IF, that will still be a domestic political issue and the public will express their opinions, the politicos will say something about it and these actions and reactions will take us to a new position. I know it’s hard for you to take but you are not the boss.

[kzb]

19 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

If we drop out with no deal, we automatically revert to these tariffs.  If we drop all tariffs coming in, and still have tariffs exporting, which is what it appears you're advocating, then what do you think happens to the UK?

We import a hell of a lot of food into the UK from the EU, so what you're saying is 'Hey, EU, we don't care if you put tariffs on us, as we're not going to put tariffs on you, so there...'.

It might be the automatic position but I trust our ever competent civil servants to have an import tariff master plan, to implement from Day 1.

I was as surprised as anyone to see 54% of farmers voted Leave.  Especially as the NUF was part of the 1975 YES campaign leadership.  Things must have turned sour since then.

The fact is if we reduce or zero tariffs our imported goods are cheaper from rest of world.  In most cases the world price is cheaper than EU price.  So we won't be importing basic foods from EU, that being the case.