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Well, I'll be damned. Looks like it's all a load of hot air, this housebuilder share exodus: The NAtional Association of Estate Agents says house prices will go down by £7000 within the next 2 years.

Panic over.

Bwahaha

As convincing as Osborne's reassurance speech.

Edited by rollover
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Well, I'll be damned. Looks like it's all a load of hot air, this housebuilder share exodus: The NAtional Association of Estate Agents says house prices will go down by £7000 within the next 2 years.

Panic over.

Bwahaha

Is (s)he talking per square meter?

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'Wait and see' in housing market 09:49

The Council of Mortgage Lenders, which represents lenders in the UK, says it expects a “wait and see” approach from potential buyers and sellers of property following the referendum vote – but no house price falls.

There is likely to be considerable uncertainty as a result of the EU referendum decision. We expect this to affect sentiment and reduce activity below levels that would otherwise be expected in the near term, as both buyers and sellers adopt a wait-and-see attitude until the dust begins to settle. Market fundamentals underpinning house prices still look sound, and we do not expect significant house price falls, especially given the current supply demand imbalance."

No syhit lol!

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Post from Sheffield Uni Professor from January. http://speri.dept.shef.ac.uk/2016/01/21/what-would-cassandra-say/

Three predictions:

Prediction 1: Britain will vote to leave the European Union in 2016

Prediction 2: Brexit will lead to break-up

Prediction 3: The second crisis is on its way

Seems to have called it pretty accurately. On the third, he says:

"The brutal reality, once again, is that the British economy is more fragile today than it was in 2007 on the eve of the crisis. A second crisis looks extremely likely, if not perhaps immanent. Despite the rhetoric of deficit reduction and rebalancing, the economy is more polarised and distorted than ever before; Britain is more reliant than it has ever been on consumption-driven growth; private debt is at near-record levels and even more responsible than in 2007 for the modest growth Britain now enjoys; Britain’s balance of trade position has deteriorated further since the crisis and there is essentially no productive investment in the economy; Britain’s infrastructure is dilapidated and decaying, with austerity in effect committing the government to an indefinite public investment strike; and, above all, the housing market (which has been primed, pumped and stoked more vigorously and frenetically since 2011 than ever before) is now massively over-valued and exhibits all the signs of a bubble on the verge of bursting. What makes this worse is that any such second crisis would take place in a context of massive public debt, interest rates already at an historically unprecedented low and with the world economy on the verge of a deflationary stagnation. It is not at all clear what could or would be done."

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Post from Sheffield Uni Professor from January. http://speri.dept.shef.ac.uk/2016/01/21/what-would-cassandra-say/

Three predictions:

Prediction 1: Britain will vote to leave the European Union in 2016

Prediction 2: Brexit will lead to break-up

Prediction 3: The second crisis is on its way

Seems to have called it pretty accurately. On the third, he says:

"The brutal reality, once again, is that the British economy is more fragile today than it was in 2007 on the eve of the crisis. A second crisis looks extremely likely, if not perhaps immanent. Despite the rhetoric of deficit reduction and rebalancing, the economy is more polarised and distorted than ever before; Britain is more reliant than it has ever been on consumption-driven growth; private debt is at near-record levels and even more responsible than in 2007 for the modest growth Britain now enjoys; Britain’s balance of trade position has deteriorated further since the crisis and there is essentially no productive investment in the economy; Britain’s infrastructure is dilapidated and decaying, with austerity in effect committing the government to an indefinite public investment strike; and, above all, the housing market (which has been primed, pumped and stoked more vigorously and frenetically since 2011 than ever before) is now massively over-valued and exhibits all the signs of a bubble on the verge of bursting. What makes this worse is that any such second crisis would take place in a context of massive public debt, interest rates already at an historically unprecedented low and with the world economy on the verge of a deflationary stagnation. It is not at all clear what could or would be done."

sounds like the average HPC member to be honest.

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Post from Sheffield Uni Professor from January. http://speri.dept.shef.ac.uk/2016/01/21/what-would-cassandra-say/

Three predictions:

Prediction 1: Britain will vote to leave the European Union in 2016

Prediction 2: Brexit will lead to break-up

Prediction 3: The second crisis is on its way

Seems to have called it pretty accurately. On the third, he says:

"The brutal reality, once again, is that the British economy is more fragile today than it was in 2007 on the eve of the crisis. A second crisis looks extremely likely, if not perhaps immanent. Despite the rhetoric of deficit reduction and rebalancing, the economy is more polarised and distorted than ever before; Britain is more reliant than it has ever been on consumption-driven growth; private debt is at near-record levels and even more responsible than in 2007 for the modest growth Britain now enjoys; Britain’s balance of trade position has deteriorated further since the crisis and there is essentially no productive investment in the economy; Britain’s infrastructure is dilapidated and decaying, with austerity in effect committing the government to an indefinite public investment strike; and, above all, the housing market (which has been primed, pumped and stoked more vigorously and frenetically since 2011 than ever before) is now massively over-valued and exhibits all the signs of a bubble on the verge of bursting. What makes this worse is that any such second crisis would take place in a context of massive public debt, interest rates already at an historically unprecedented low and with the world economy on the verge of a deflationary stagnation. It is not at all clear what could or would be done."

I am not sure that divisions in the Conservative Party over the EU alone would have prompted Cameron to call the Referendum as those have been around for decades. I think it was the signs that UKIP was making inroads into both Tory and Labour votes that was worrying them. That was reinforced by the act that Labour was annihilated in Scotland over a single night during the 2015 GE. It is the unravelling of the UK political set up that is driving the process of Brexit not the other way round. The EU is just the trigger point. Given that all UK economic activity is being distorted by the housing bubble I would think that it bursting would be one of the best things that could happen to this country in this crisis particularly if as looks likely some of the losses might get exported. I dont think that the states that make up the EU are or ever have been our 'friends' in the way that countries like Canada have been historically (ie they have never sacrificed themselves on our behalf without some external prompting)

Edited by stormymonday_2011
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/another-lender-clamps-down-on-landlords---but-could-brexit-rescu/

It seems the answer is "yes", and I was expecting the reasoning to be that a new chancellor may repeal Clause 24 and additional stamp duty....

Edit: just to clarify, I don't believe it, but thought it was a hilarious piece, especially imagining epxpectant look on a 118er's face become one of terror as they realise that it won't save their leveraged @rses.

Edited by kilroy
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Its just full of perverse reasoning "if house prices fall faster than rent, landlords' yields could rise" er no your yield does not rise if youve already paid the higher price. Landlords wont buy in a falling market (unless they believe the falls are very temporary).

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/another-lender-clamps-down-on-landlords---but-could-brexit-rescu/

It seems the answer is "yes", and I was expecting the reasoning to be that a new chancellor may repeal Clause 24 and additional stamp duty....

Brexit will not rescue BTL . The UK High Street Banks have to cut back on BTL as the UK's exposure is too high and they need to conform with BASEL3 and 4. This call is above Carney and Osborne.

They have to comply............ :rolleyes:

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Brexit will not rescue BTL . The UK High Street Banks have to cut back on BTL as the UK's exposure is too high and they need to conform with BASEL3 and 4. This call is above Carney and Osborne.

They have to comply............ :rolleyes:

Wrong. There is no enforcement mechanism. Basel III depends entirely on voluntary implementation. One would expect Carney to comply because as governor of a G20 central bank he is actually at the table making the decisions.

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The vast majority of BTL merchants are in it for capital gains. They'll be subject to exactly the same change of sentiment as everyone else, although perhaps the more savvy operators will do OK. I expect the BTLers to start selling en masse once they realise that the HPI gravy train is over and holding their investments businesses is costing them money every month.

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Wrong. There is no enforcement mechanism. Basel III depends entirely on voluntary implementation. One would expect Carney to comply because as governor of a G20 central bank he is actually at the table making the decisions.

...if these measures which are world wide are not followed by your central bank they would be accused of non compliance ...and be regarded as a rogue country financially ......suggest you are wrong.... :rolleyes:

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The vast majority of BTL merchants are in it for capital gains. They'll be subject to exactly the same change of sentiment as everyone else, although perhaps the more savvy operators will do OK. I expect the BTLers to start selling en masse once they realise that the HPI gravy train is over and holding their investments businesses is costing them money every month.

..the projected tax structure between now and 2018 makes it unviable before any added risk of HPC..... :rolleyes:

Edited by South Lorne
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The vast majority of BTL merchants are in it for capital gains. They'll be subject to exactly the same change of sentiment as everyone else, although perhaps the more savvy operators will do OK. I expect the BTLers to start selling en masse once they realise that the HPI gravy train is over and holding their investments businesses is costing them money every month.

I wouldn't think so.

If anything, there will be an uptick in foreign investment into the market.

Sh1t yeah. Property just got a 10%++ discount for all kinds of countries looking to invest.

Rules ain't gonna change, probably relax for foriegn investment. Property is the only game in town outside of London markets.

Stamp duty = social welfare spend, etc...

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I wouldn't think so.

If anything, there will be an uptick in foreign investment into the market.

Sh1t yeah. Property just got a 10%++ discount for all kinds of countries looking to invest.

Rules ain't gonna change, probably relax for foriegn investment. Property is the only game in town outside of London markets.

Stamp duty = social welfare spend, etc...

...VI?

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...VI?

No.

Just not ignorant of the way things work or what has made the UK the great place to live that it has been.

But I think a lot of you BREXIT types are running on the wrong type of fuel.

Like Decartes putting a loaded pistol to his head and pulling the trigger to prove existence.

Edited by cashinmattress
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Meanwhile all those foreigners who 'invested' last few years, seen falls in their position in £ (although most had a run of HPI in prime areas to counter that - for now).

Rules have changed for foreign investment. Been clamping down since 2012... then ATED, even if it hasn't stopped the rush. It does seem to me exits are narrower when those who piled in look to sell. And at that point, there may be less of a buying rush, against falling prices. Sentiment change. Also Brexit and Bremain campaigns I thought were full of half-truths and very muddled. Both didn't give a positive impression of UK for me. Left me feeling cold. Just think a bit of that might impinge a little more on the so called foreign money that never runs out and always willing to pay crazy prices in minds of some. (despite financial issues in other countries + loads of other countries to buy in apart from England).

2012

There are three aspects to the new stamp duty regime :

- The 15% stamp duty being imposed on properties valued over £ 2 million held in offshore vehicles after Budget Day
- The Chancellor's warning that he will impose retroactive and large annual fees to properties held in offshore vehicles before Budget Day
- The new 7% stamp duty on properties valued over £ 2 million

These changes can only bring downward pressure on the price of expensive properties. Bringing the ownership of properties onshore exposes them to the inheritance tax regime. Keeping the ownership offshore exposes them to potentially large and unpredictable ongoing fees.

Edited by Venger
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