The Saving And Investing Into The Doom And Gloom Thread

[Errol]

My post wasn't trolling. I was genuinely under the impression that the risks of ETFs were well known across the market. And those risks are pretty obvious - i.e. convoluted structures, asset ownership (or not), redemptions (or not) etc etc. All I'm saying is that to my mind ETFs sit in a much more risky category than say company shares of a FTSE 100 company.

Of course, I could be wrong. I'm not claiming to be the world leading expert on ETF risk.

Edited July 1, 2016 by Errol

[NuBrit]

What does that even mean?

Do you have any evidence gold & gilts increase long term performance? If not, are you only interested in short term performance? Volatility?

What problem are you attempting to solve?

Re VMR & ETFS - Depends. Some are fully replicated with underlying. FTSE 100 for instance. Just like a unit trust/fund. Some use swaps against an index, hence counterparty risk. i.e. inverse, X2, commods etc.

The Permanent Portfolio model of asset allocation has suggested you can have close to a 10% return (over the last 40 years) with a sizeable allocation to gold and bonds.

It's pretty simple, you allocate like this.

25% cash

25% bonds

25% stocks

25% gold

http://www.aaii.com/journal/article/the-permanent-portfolio-using-allocation-to-build-and-protect-wealth

Some might consider a 40 year track record an endorsement of this model. Personally, I don't. Bonds by themselves for example have been in a 35 year long bull run, the run they've had over that period simply cannot be reproduced into the next 40 years.

[NuBrit]

This is a great thread, some really eye opening posts that I have learned from.

I am in a similar position to the OP. I am in my mid 30's, I started investing at around the same time (although it was never a deliberate plan for me to be financially independent). Unfortunately, I was never able to save as much as he did (thanks wife, thanks kids). I am still fairly thrifty, managing to put away a decent chunk of my wages, even though I only earn a small bit above the UK average wage. I reckon the way I am going, I could retire in about 10 years. I find this kind of amusing, because I have not been particularly smart, in fact I have made lots of stupid financial decisions. I don't have any magic formula or guarantee, but I can share what worked for me, and what hasn't.

What's worked well.

1. Owning a home: I overpaid slightly when I bought my house 8-9 years ago as prices ended up bottoming out about 2 years after that. Still, the purchase has worked out well as I am nearly half way through the mortgage. If you are in SE England, then you're kind of screwed as prices still look to be in bubble-land. However, most other parts of the UK, prices look fair/only slightly expensive. My thoughts are that if you want a house as a home that will also do well financially, then it's ok to overpay moderately.
2. Holding good stocks: One of the first stocks I ever bought was Berkshire Hathaway, I bought in blocks over a few years and have never sold a share. I've doubled my money overall, having about 10% compounded annual growth. Asos was another one that has done well, I have about a 4-5x return on it, I did cut the position a little because it was getting so large. My best investments are growing companies with real profits that I just sit on. Eventually compounding kicks in and you get amazing returns.
3. Always keep drip feeding investments especially when times are bad: When I check my investment logs, the times when I bought stocks in severe market declines have worked brilliantly. Broad-based market declines are wonderful moments and if you're a regular investor, you will find that these deliver wonderful returns.

What's not worked.

1. Speculative/story stocks: Back when I first started out investing and didn't really know what I was doing, I wasted money on a few terrible stocks. I bought an oil&gas pipeline company that was a zero, I bought an oil driller that is down 95% as of now, I bought a newspaper company that I sold out for an 80% loss, I bought a Canadian junior gold miner that was another zero. The pipeline/newspaper stocks got destroyed because of debt, the oil driller and gold stocks got killed because of non-existent earnings. Needless to say, I no longer touch these types of companies with a barge pole.
2. Short-term trading: For a little while, I tried the short-term trading thing. Buy and selling on what I thought would happen with an index/company. It was only for small money, and I didn't lose too much, but there seemed to be a slow bleed on the portfolio I set aside for this.
3. Cut the losers: I bought into Tesco, held for over two years despite repeated profit warnings. In hindsight, I should have sold after the second profit warning and also looked at all the other retailers which was clearly struggling. Also, when an entire sector is in the sh1tter, then you really need to have your wits about you.

I don't mean to be smug after the fact, just trying to share what has been good for me.

[VeryMeanReversion]

Its a shame that this thread has disappeared of the main page, it was doing pretty well.

Anyway, the main page seems to have turned a bit silly with the brexit/bremainers still fighting it out.

Anyway 2.... I saw this on http://simple-living-in-suffolk.co.uk

I like these sort of heat maps, it give me a 10,000ft view of a market. Cape is far from perfect but is a useful indicator.

[Democorruptcy]

It's these kind of stories and insider details from a friend working at one of those type of companies that put me off anything that hasn't got high level of legal protection. Also, the simpler the investment the better. I'm not convinced by ETF/ETCs either, I'm just waiting for excuses like "we didnt bother to buy the underlying investment, it was just a piece of paper, sorry, won't do it again, honest".

My own position is :

1. 60% House equity (good UK property law - I'm the owner occupier)

2. 32% FTSE held in SIPP @32% (good laws protecting this - low enough levels of corruption or complete failures but it does happen. Confiscation unlikely)

3. 8% Cash (held in SIPP accounts under protected limits).

The older I get, the more I learn that complex investments are used to hide information and create skimming/fraud/high-cost opportunities, all against my interests. It really does make sense why many people went for BTL as a safe pension. They just didn't understand what a risk they were taking with all that leverage. I have a small amount of leverage on my house as my LTV is ~20%.

Presumably in nominee accounts not holding share certificates. I know these days certificates are old fashioned and there is less choice but I do wonder if one day we might see the nominee aspect tested.

[R K]

Presumably in nominee accounts not holding share certificates. I know these days certificates are old fashioned and there is less choice but I do wonder if one day we might see the nominee aspect tested.

So what are you going to do with the bits of paper if theres no on exchange trading? These arguments end up becoming circular

[Democorruptcy]

So what are you going to do with the bits of paper if theres no on exchange trading? These arguments end up becoming circular

I wasn't thinking there might no exchange trading at all. Just that one provider might not have been doing things as they should, as in some sort of fraud. Like I said earlier, I think about these things because of what's happened to me in the past, £10k in a segregated client account that vanished with a website overnight.

[wish I could afford one]

Its a shame that this thread has disappeared of the main page, it was doing pretty well.

...

Well it looks like this thread wasn't relevant enough or interesting enough for main and has been sent to slowly die in the sub-forums. Ah well it was worth a try. I'll just head back to my old less active ways on this forum and refocus my learnings back on my blog where I get far more thoughtful comment than the sub-forums here will ever give. It's been fun while it lasted...

[MrXxx]

Hi Folks,

long-time watcher and occasional poster here. WICAO this post has got me thinking about my pensions provision/retirement, FIRE and really giving it some thought. I know that there appears to be a lot of financially savvy people here whose brains I would like to 'tap' , but as always I will DYOR...its only I need pointing in the right direction...so a couple of areas with questions (sorry about length!) I would like feedback on ; please excuse my naivety (these are real questions not trolling)....I plan to retire about 10 years early, buy a house (either in the UK or overseas), live on some savings/maturing endowment before state and company pension 'kicks-in'...Unlike WICAO, my tastes are a little less ambitious BUT I do earn slightly above the national average.

1. STATE PENSION:What do people think about the state pension...is it really safe or is it going to evaporate/decline dramatically in the future?...I ask as I have another 8 years to make it to the magical 35 and 16 years to do it in AND I have received a letter offering me to buy-in to a part year for £700...is this worth it?...and I really saving that much?...should I wait and buy years nearer to retirement if I need them as I do not want to pay anymore than another 8 for obvious reasons (money for nothing, potential of pension being scrapped etc)...is buying in to the state pension an efficient use of the money or is there better ways to invest it?...Am I right in my understanding that you cannot access it early?

2. PRIVATE PENSION: Its similar to a public service pension and was a final earnings/salary pension but they are in the process of converting it into a (defined?) contributions based pension...With this I get a lump sum at the end and a accrued sum for however many years I have attained...If/when I retire early if financially I dont need to access it am I better living off savings and waiting or should I access it and get a reduced monthly payment?...If my understanding is correct once it matures I take the money and buy an annuity, am I better using this money to buy shares and so keeping the capital (after 'educating myself' a little more in this area) and living off the divis etc...Also, from a recent work briefing on the pension changes I have been told that I can let it be managed automatically (as most do, where in the early part it has riskier investments for growth and later safer to ensure final sum) or I can get involved in picking my investments, should I 'have a go?' ...My understanding is that I dont pay any 'running fee' as these are covered by my employer so it may be a way of becoming involved in my future pension provision/share investments without the cost of management fees etc.

3. EDUCATION: Can you folks point me in the right direction so that I can develop a foundation knowledge in this area...at the moment sometimes (with all the acronyms) I am completely lost BUT I want to become responsible for my future (rather than being a 'passenger') and be able to make informed financial decisions.

Thanks for your help.

[R K]

Hi Folks,

long-time watcher and occasional poster here. WICAO this post has got me thinking about my pensions provision/retirement, FIRE and really giving it some thought. I know that there appears to be a lot of financially savvy people here whose brains I would like to 'tap' , but as always I will DYOR...its only I need pointing in the right direction...so a couple of areas with questions (sorry about length!) I would like feedback on ; please excuse my naivety (these are real questions not trolling)....I plan to retire about 10 years early, buy a house (either in the UK or overseas), live on some savings/maturing endowment before state and company pension 'kicks-in'...Unlike WICAO, my tastes are a little less ambitious BUT I do earn slightly above the national average.

1. STATE PENSION:What do people think about the state pension...is it really safe or is it going to evaporate/decline dramatically in the future?...I ask as I have another 8 years to make it to the magical 35 and 16 years to do it in AND I have received a letter offering me to buy-in to a part year for £700...is this worth it?...and I really saving that much?...should I wait and buy years nearer to retirement if I need them as I do not want to pay anymore than another 8 for obvious reasons (money for nothing, potential of pension being scrapped etc)...is buying in to the state pension an efficient use of the money or is there better ways to invest it?...Am I right in my understanding that you cannot access it early?

2. PRIVATE PENSION: Its similar to a public service pension and was a final earnings/salary pension but they are in the process of converting it into a (defined?) contributions based pension...With this I get a lump sum at the end and a accrued sum for however many years I have attained...If/when I retire early if financially I dont need to access it am I better living off savings and waiting or should I access it and get a reduced monthly payment?...If my understanding is correct once it matures I take the money and buy an annuity, am I better using this money to buy shares and so keeping the capital (after 'educating myself' a little more in this area) and living off the divis etc...Also, from a recent work briefing on the pension changes I have been told that I can let it be managed automatically (as most do, where in the early part it has riskier investments for growth and later safer to ensure final sum) or I can get involved in picking my investments, should I 'have a go?' ...My understanding is that I dont pay any 'running fee' as these are covered by my employer so it may be a way of becoming involved in my future pension provision/share investments without the cost of management fees etc.

3. EDUCATION: Can you folks point me in the right direction so that I can develop a foundation knowledge in this area...at the moment sometimes (with all the acronyms) I am completely lost BUT I want to become responsible for my future (rather than being a 'passenger') and be able to make informed financial decisions.

Thanks for your help.

1. State pension - info link

https://www.gov.uk/new-state-pension (edit: new state pension link)

The "payback" for buying prior years pension credit (my back of envelope calc - anyone else feel free to chip in) is around 3.5 years before basic rate tax deducted at your normal state retirement date. In other words, if you pay around £750 to buy 1 years additional pension credit after 3.5 years you will have been paid that back in additional pension (max pension £155 pw/35years = £4.42 pw = £230pa. After that youre in the money. Of course it assumes you live > 3.5 years after your normal state retirement date. So the rate of return on your c. £750 contribution is around 30% p.a. thereafter compared to nothing on bank savings & a natural yield on FTSE of around 3.5% p.a. In other words all else equal its a no-brainer & a nice hedge against longevity.

2. Private defined contribution pension

https://www.pensionwise.gov.uk/ - give them a ring. Theyre incredibly helpful & it is free.

Edited July 3, 2016 by R K

[R K]

The Permanent Portfolio model of asset allocation has suggested you can have close to a 10% return (over the last 40 years) with a sizeable allocation to gold and bonds.

It's pretty simple, you allocate like this.

25% cash

25% bonds

25% stocks

25% gold

http://www.aaii.com/journal/article/the-permanent-portfolio-using-allocation-to-build-and-protect-wealth

Some might consider a 40 year track record an endorsement of this model. Personally, I don't. Bonds by themselves for example have been in a 35 year long bull run, the run they've had over that period simply cannot be reproduced into the next 40 years.

Thanks.

Yes I understand different asset allocation models but that doesnt answer my questions.

So, can you tell me what benefit that particular asset allocation has/d over any other model?

Was there any significant performance difference if you omit gold or bonds? Or alter the % allocations?

As you point out there is a hindsight bias in any model selection over last 40 years. Bonds were in a bull market. Buying 10 year bonds today at 1.5% or lower locks in a very low return for a long period. For some reason many people seem to not understand this but stick to the model regardless which is puzzling. Also it excludes property (say UK property)

[R K]

Well it looks like this thread wasn't relevant enough or interesting enough for main and has been sent to slowly die in the sub-forums. Ah well it was worth a try. I'll just head back to my old less active ways on this forum and refocus my learnings back on my blog where I get far more thoughtful comment than the sub-forums here will ever give. It's been fun while it lasted...

You have that back to front. sub-forum far better than main forum.

[MrXxx]

Thanks RK.

As for 1, I had calculated that it would take me the three years, although I hadn't calculated the %'s...what do people think about the 'security' of the state pension...what with recent murmurings about the potential loss of the Triple-lock (yes, I know this was 'Project fear' but it got me thinking)....The way I see it is that with a growing elderly population and a reducing 'youth' population how are they ever going to pay it OR is it just going to be lowered or not maintained at the rate of inflation (or will they 'invent' another metric to measure that?!).

As for 2, that very much what I want to try to avoid i.e. just listening to others 'advice' rather than DYOR...I did that once when I was younger (endowment) and learnt my lesson!...I now want to be more aware so that if/when I make mistakes I know that I was well informed.

Another question...regarding pensions and taking Tax-free lump sums...I assume that when you have the chance to take this it would be best to take out up to the tax-free limit, as you can then put it somewhere i.e. ISA where the returns would also be tax free, rather than leaving it in the pension and being taxed on the extra pension that it would create?...Also, when you take out the tax-free lump sum does it count towards your yearly tax allowance?

Thanks for any views.

[VeryMeanReversion]

Hi Folks,

long-time watcher and occasional poster here. WICAO this post has got me thinking about my pensions provision/retirement, FIRE and really giving it some thought. I know that there appears to be a lot of financially savvy people here whose brains I would like to 'tap' , but as always I will DYOR...its only I need pointing in the right direction...so a couple of areas with questions (sorry about length!) I would like feedback on ; please excuse my naivety (these are real questions not trolling)....I plan to retire about 10 years early, buy a house (either in the UK or overseas), live on some savings/maturing endowment before state and company pension 'kicks-in'...Unlike WICAO, my tastes are a little less ambitious BUT I do earn slightly above the national average.

1. STATE PENSION:What do people think about the state pension...is it really safe or is it going to evaporate/decline dramatically in the future?...I ask as I have another 8 years to make it to the magical 35 and 16 years to do it in AND I have received a letter offering me to buy-in to a part year for £700...is this worth it?...and I really saving that much?...should I wait and buy years nearer to retirement if I need them as I do not want to pay anymore than another 8 for obvious reasons (money for nothing, potential of pension being scrapped etc)...is buying in to the state pension an efficient use of the money or is there better ways to invest it?...Am I right in my understanding that you cannot access it early?

2. PRIVATE PENSION: Its similar to a public service pension and was a final earnings/salary pension but they are in the process of converting it into a (defined?) contributions based pension...With this I get a lump sum at the end and a accrued sum for however many years I have attained...If/when I retire early if financially I dont need to access it am I better living off savings and waiting or should I access it and get a reduced monthly payment?...If my understanding is correct once it matures I take the money and buy an annuity, am I better using this money to buy shares and so keeping the capital (after 'educating myself' a little more in this area) and living off the divis etc...Also, from a recent work briefing on the pension changes I have been told that I can let it be managed automatically (as most do, where in the early part it has riskier investments for growth and later safer to ensure final sum) or I can get involved in picking my investments, should I 'have a go?' ...My understanding is that I dont pay any 'running fee' as these are covered by my employer so it may be a way of becoming involved in my future pension provision/share investments without the cost of management fees etc.

3. EDUCATION: Can you folks point me in the right direction so that I can develop a foundation knowledge in this area...at the moment sometimes (with all the acronyms) I am completely lost BUT I want to become responsible for my future (rather than being a 'passenger') and be able to make informed financial decisions.

Thanks for your help.

1. I expect there to be a state pension with a real value similar to todays. I don't expect the "triple lock" to continue much longer which would have increased the real value.

2. A state pension is worth £200-250K. So each year is worth 1/35th of that, so say £6500. Well worth £700 but only if that is your only way to qualify for a year, maybe you could use a later year?

3. You cannot access state pension early (some professions can access private pensions early)

4. Difficult to answer your pension questions without more info but here goes anyway with my biased opinions

4.1 You need to know how long you are going to live for (!)

4.2 Whilst in good health, live off investments.

4.3 As health fails, go for the certainty of an annuity

4.4. In the long-term, charges are very important, the skimmers will try to get you everywhere. If they say one bit is free, find out where the other charges are.

5. I learnt a lot from the monevator site. Also see WICAO's site (retirementinvestingtoday.com)

[R K]

Thanks RK.

As for 1, I had calculated that it would take me the three years, although I hadn't calculated the %'s...what do people think about the 'security' of the state pension...what with recent murmurings about the potential loss of the Triple-lock (yes, I know this was 'Project fear' but it got me thinking)....The way I see it is that with a growing elderly population and a reducing 'youth' population how are they ever going to pay it OR is it just going to be lowered or not maintained at the rate of inflation (or will they 'invent' another metric to measure that?!).

As for 2, that very much what I want to try to avoid i.e. just listening to others 'advice' rather than DYOR...I did that once when I was younger (endowment) and learnt my lesson!...I now want to be more aware so that if/when I make mistakes I know that I was well informed.

Another question...regarding pensions and taking Tax-free lump sums...I assume that when you have the chance to take this it would be best to take out up to the tax-free limit, as you can then put it somewhere i.e. ISA where the returns would also be tax free, rather than leaving it in the pension and being taxed on the extra pension that it would create?...Also, when you take out the tax-free lump sum does it count towards your yearly tax allowance?

Thanks for any views.

To clarify, my response to your Q2 was a link also re Q3. i.e. To assist with your desire for education. Specifically re your options for your defined contribution pension. Pensionwise dont give "advice" only "information" about process & options. Unlike an IFA it is free. As I say, I recommend you visit site as part of you desired education & DYOR. I strongly suggest you dont listen to any advice on pensions on the internet. There was a main forum thread on it not so long ago and many of the posts were utter nonsense yet posted as fact.

Re 25% tax free lump sum: - it depends on your circumstances, other taxable income, timing (early or NRD) etc. It isnt "taxable" as income because it is "tax free".

Pensions are part "options" & "process" (legislation) which are similar for most people but then "personal" in the sense that eveyones situation is different. So you need to understand both aspects & make your own decisions.

Edited July 4, 2016 by R K

[NuBrit]

Thanks.

Yes I understand different asset allocation models but that doesnt answer my questions.

So, can you tell me what benefit that particular asset allocation has/d over any other model?

Was there any significant performance difference if you omit gold or bonds? Or alter the % allocations?

As you point out there is a hindsight bias in any model selection over last 40 years. Bonds were in a bull market. Buying 10 year bonds today at 1.5% or lower locks in a very low return for a long period. For some reason many people seem to not understand this but stick to the model regardless which is puzzling. Also it excludes property (say UK property)

The Permanent Portfolio has returned close to 10% annualized returns over the past 40 years. In that time volatility has been low, it has only seen 3 down years with the worst loss in that time being 4%.

[MrXxx]

Thanks VMR/RK,

you have both given me something to think about...I can now go off and do some more research...just one final question:-

On the 'big day' (retirement) you have a number of choices (due to recent changes) that basically involve taking a lumpsum, and/or buying an annuity and/or draw-down. Now my understanding is with an annuity to pay £x's and get a fixed amount in return whilst you are alive BUT have no access to the capital that you paid (correct?)...and a draw-down is simply leaving the capital with the pension company (invested in a share portfolio) and taking a % return on the yearly profits YET you still maintain the capital sum (and so can take bits of that tax-free over a period of time) correct?

Thanks for you help so far.

[SillyBilly]

See a few people on this thread have invested in Stagecoach. It has been on my watchlist for a bit, been close a couple of times to pulling the trigger. Anyone look into the effects of this new bus bill? Seems like it has the management nervous and could affect some of its most profitable bus operations. If it wasn't for that I'd be in without hesitation, as it stands appears to be a landscape change on the horizon.

[VeryMeanReversion]

Thanks VMR/RK,

you have both given me something to think about...I can now go off and do some more research...just one final question:-

On the 'big day' (retirement) you have a number of choices (due to recent changes) that basically involve taking a lumpsum, and/or buying an annuity and/or draw-down. Now my understanding is with an annuity to pay £x's and get a fixed amount in return whilst you are alive BUT have no access to the capital that you paid (correct?)...and a draw-down is simply leaving the capital with the pension company (invested in a share portfolio) and taking a % return on the yearly profits YET you still maintain the capital sum (and so can take bits of that tax-free over a period of time) correct?

Thanks for you help so far.

There really isn't a big day any more where you have to do anything. At 55, you can access your pension stash from a DC scheme. However, you could carry on working full-time or part-time as you wish. You can still contribute to a pension fund whilst you are in drawdown (£10K annual limit ) or more if you have only taken the 25%. There are some recycling rules to meet.

When you buy an annuity, you hand over some amount (doesn't have to be the whole lot). There are various options for getting paid from it e.g. fixed regular sum, escalating RPI-linked, survivor spouse, guaranteed minimum term payout. The insurance company takes on your lifetime risk (at a cost). You can even use the tax-free lump sum to buy an annuity which is paid tax-free.

Drawdown is where you keep the investment in your name and take the risk yourself. There used to be limits on what you could take out but not any more, just pay income tax on whatever you take out (after the tax-free 25%).

You could use part of your fund to provide the guaranteed annuity and keep the rest of it in drawdown.

"Which" do a pensions book, worth a read if its been updated to the latest rules.

[Frugal Git]

See a few people on this thread have invested in Stagecoach. It has been on my watchlist for a bit, been close a couple of times to pulling the trigger. Anyone look into the effects of this new bus bill? Seems like it has the management nervous and could affect some of its most profitable bus operations. If it wasn't for that I'd be in without hesitation, as it stands appears to be a landscape change on the horizon.

I'm 20% down on that one in two weeks on my first nibble, 10% down in a week on my second bit. Top quality investing. If you're thinking about putting a wedge in I'd drip feed it. Provided the divi is maintained I'm not overly concerned for now. People are still using the bus as far as I can tell. I'm going to load up on utilities over the next few weeks. It looms fairly clear the dividend payers are in vogue at the moment - house builders excepted.

On that note, scummy companies as they are persimmon etc are now on my radar to buy. Not nibbling yet though. Having watched the markets for years my gut feeling is when something really starts getting trashed, expect the downside to be so ridiculous it will make your nose bleed (see the miners /big oil in jaunary for a case in point).

My price target will seem ridiculous given they've already halved, but I am looking to buy in at another 40% down. And quite honestly, having seen what I've seen over the years nothing would suprise me....they could go down another 70% and it wouldn't shock. Ftse 100 companies or not, when the market's hate you they really hate you.

Echo its a shame this thread has moved.

[R K]

Thanks VMR/RK,

you have both given me something to think about...I can now go off and do some more research...just one final question:-

On the 'big day' (retirement) you have a number of choices (due to recent changes) that basically involve taking a lumpsum, and/or buying an annuity and/or draw-down. Now my understanding is with an annuity to pay £x's and get a fixed amount in return whilst you are alive BUT have no access to the capital that you paid (correct?)...and a draw-down is simply leaving the capital with the pension company (invested in a share portfolio) and taking a % return on the yearly profits YET you still maintain the capital sum (and so can take bits of that tax-free over a period of time) correct?

Thanks for you help so far.

VMR has ably summarised your options but there is one other benefit under the new "flexible" pension rules & that is that you can bequeath your SIPP if you die to, say, your children. If you have children that may be something to consider. Depending on whether you die before/after 75 affects the taxation treatment to some extent. Also it sits outside (i.e. in addition to) your estate which may also be a consideration. hargreaves Landsdown site covers all of this pretty well imo (observation not recommendation)

[SillyBilly]

I'm 20% down on that one in two weeks on my first nibble, 10% down in a week on my second bit. Top quality investing. If you're thinking about putting a wedge in I'd drip feed it. Provided the divi is maintained I'm not overly concerned for now. People are still using the bus as far as I can tell. I'm going to load up on utilities over the next few weeks. It looms fairly clear the dividend payers are in vogue at the moment - house builders excepted.

On that note, scummy companies as they are persimmon etc are now on my radar to buy. Not nibbling yet though. Having watched the markets for years my gut feeling is when something really starts getting trashed, expect the downside to be so ridiculous it will make your nose bleed (see the miners /big oil in jaunary for a case in point).

My price target will seem ridiculous given they've already halved, but I am looking to buy in at another 40% down. And quite honestly, having seen what I've seen over the years nothing would suprise me....they could go down another 70% and it wouldn't shock. Ftse 100 companies or not, when the market's hate you they really hate you.

Echo its a shame this thread has moved.

I agree in principle, I was just concerned that a very big regulatory change (so far as I can tell) is to hit that industry in a couple of years and it could have an impact on Stagecoach's profitability (I am not concerned people will stop using buses). Having looked very briefly where Stagecoach make their money (provinces) and the London model being exported elsewhere, seems like something to consider before parting a huge wad. On price, P/E ratio etc. it does catch the eye.

[wish I could afford one]

Well the two and a bit weeks since Brexit has been most interesting for my portfolio. Measured in Sterling since the 18 June 2016 (I only update my portfolio once per week on a Saturday) I'm up 7.7%. In Euro's, which is the currency I'm most interested in, I'm down 0.6%.

Brexit has also seen me accelerate my way to the 2 comma club. In the end it took me 8.5 years and with a fair wind FI should now only be a few weeks away.

[porca misèria]

The biggest thing I've been kicking myself over is not cottoning on to the savings to be had through salary sacrifice earlier. I'm at the stage where I pay a frankly obscene amount of marginal tax on any salary increase and would like some of that hard earned money back!

Not such a bad problem to have. At times of my life when my income has taken me above the threshold for higher rate tax, I've put (all) the excess into the SIPP and charitable contributions, so HMRC don't get their thieving hands on it.

Instead of concentrating on the Financial Independence part of FIRE, why not focus on the Retire Early bit?

Retire?

Alternatively, semi-retire. Continue to earn, but work from home, on your own terms, keeping your own hours.

There really isn't a big day any more where you have to do anything. At 55, you can access your pension stash from a DC scheme. However, you could carry on working full-time or part-time as you wish. You can still contribute to a pension fund whilst you are in drawdown (£10K annual limit ) or more if you have only taken the 25%. There are some recycling rules to meet.

Whut? I can get my hands on the 25% without blowing the future investment? I've been weighing that up as a trade-off: don't want to limit contributions to £10k while I might still be earning enough to pay tax+NI on more than £10k.

Well the two and a bit weeks since Brexit has been most interesting for my portfolio. Measured in Sterling since the 18 June 2016 (I only update my portfolio once per week on a Saturday) I'm up 7.7%. In Euro's, which is the currency I'm most interested in, I'm down 0.6%.

Yeah, I'm up quite a lot in sterling. But my biggest contributors are the developing world funds: India and to a lesser extent China doing spectacularly well, global/US$ nicely up, latin america gone from the red into the black. And ARM is my biggest single-company holding, for a bit of icing on the cake.

If I had that 25%, I could buy a nice house. And I only started in 2008, when I first got paid enough to be facing higher-rate tax.

[silver surfer]

Looking at the very latest annuity rates is pretty sobering; joint life 50%, 3% max RPI escalation, £100k gives a starting income of £2994 for a 65 year old. In practical terms the effective gap between a DB and a DC pension just keeps getting wider.

But the penalty for early retirement seems to be dropping, for example on the above assumptions a 55 year old gets £2260 and a 60 year old gets £2576. Conversely there now seems a smaller benefit to working longer, a 70 year old gets £3500 and a 75 year old gets £4364.

I seem to remember from a few years ago that a 55 year old got not much more than half a 65 year old, but if you delayed buying an annuity until you were 70 you automatically went onto the Sunday Times 100 Rich List.