Remain Vote And The Euro Currency

[anonguest]

Mods: I have already posted this message on the official pinned Brexit-Remain thread but ask this be kept here initially to draw attention to the particular topic.

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I may be wrong but the whole Remain/Leave debate has covered all manner of things from immigration, the economics, civil liberties, etc.

But one economic issue I have not seen explicitly mentioned, by either side, at all or in any detail worthy of it's importance.......

IF we vote to stay in the EU will that be used as carte blanche by Westminster (whoever may be in power at the time) to take us into the Euro if they wanted to?

Would they be legally able to hold up this referendum result and use it to say that no separate 'Adopt the Euro and abandon the Pound' referendun is required??

I think that this needs to be dwelt upon significantly as a possible consequence of voting Remain. After all how many would be 'Remainers' want to be in Europe as we are now and keep the Pound but would be opposed to losing the Pound?

[wonderpup]

It's hard to imagine any UK Goverment taking us into the Euro in my view- the thing is clearly a disaster in the making.

But on a more general level you do have a point. I just watched Corbyn's debate on sky and it was in my view the best and most cogent case made for remain during the whole campaign- but his entire position is predicated on the assumption that the EU will listen to his ideas and be prepared to make the kinds of changes he wants made.

The problem is that in a post remain scenario the leverage of any british representitive in the EU will be virtually zero- after all, what are they going to do- threaten a referendum?

By voting remain we are in effect giving a carte blanche to the EU to more of less ignore the UK in the future since we will have demonstrated that in the last anaylisis we are too afraid of the economic consequnces to leave.

So Corbyn's vision of a better, kinder and more democratic EU is, alas. a pipe dream- and a dream made less not more likely by a decision to vote remain.

The irony is that only a Brexit would deliver the kick up the backside that the EU requires to contemplate serious reform- so the truth is that the best way that Corbyn could advance his agenda for the EU would be to advocate leaving it.

[stepho]

It's hard to imagine any UK Goverment taking us into the Euro in my view- the thing is clearly a disaster in the making.

That's why I think Brexit may win.

It provides an excuse for the economies of the world to use for the next financial implosion as opposed to the real causes built up over the last decade. Then the markets will twist the screw on the UK, and in 10 years time we'll be back in and deeper than ever before. Job done.

The end goal is a fully integrated federal Europe zone, expanded on what is it today geographically with countries reduced to states within what effectively will be one 'country'.

[canbuywontbuy]

The problem is that in a post remain scenario the leverage of any british representitive in the EU will be virtually zero- after all, what are they going to do- threaten a referendum?

By voting remain we are in effect giving a carte blanche to the EU to more of less ignore the UK in the future since we will have demonstrated that in the last anaylisis we are too afraid of the economic consequnces to leave.

ja, genau!

A vote to Remain further tyrannises the EU's grip on the UK. We vote to Remain, and bingo, the UK becomes the biggest cheerleader of the EU. We will have zero negotiation powers. We are basically all-in. The EU will tighten its grip further. It will probably try to silence other referendum appeals in other countries. The US wants the EU intact, and the US gets what it wants, even if it has to kill MPs in the process.

[giggler]

I look at it like this - every 5-7years we have the banks sucking there interest on debt out of the real economy and so we have recession. How long has it been since the last official recession, 07-08? that's a good 8years of CB shenanigans be it LTRO, QE or HTB just to keep the game going.

I could not think of a better way of skidding the blame from the political and banking elite on to the people then this referendum. To warning them about pushing the red button and then holding it out in front of them on June 23rd. All the remain backers cast everything from recession to reductions in house prices and other assets, higher prices on the streets for good's and food (is this inflation what BoE wants anyway?). Point is, if it all blows up after a vote to leave who's to blame? not the poor old bankers, they could have not done anything about the situation we then all find our selves in.

Nope, seriously, if you wanted an exit card with everyone else's name on it to blame for some built up unwind, you could not get better than this IMHO. If there ever is a proper HPC, I'll be the leave camp get it.

[dgul]

Difficult to imagine, I know, but IMO if we remain there's a good chance we'll be using the Euro within 10 years.

I don't know how it will happen, though.

[porca misèria]

No UK political party wants the Euro, so the question doesn't arise.

Unless you envisage the unlikely scenario where a new party arises and gets elected to government on a platform of taking us into the Euro, and works its way around the constitutional hurdles involved.

[SarahBell]

euro by 2026 if we vote remain.

[Sheeple Splinter]

It's hard to imagine any UK Goverment taking us into the Euro in my view- the thing is clearly a disaster in the making.

But on a more general level you do have a point. I just watched Corbyn's debate on sky and it was in my view the best and most cogent case made for remain during the whole campaign- but his entire position is predicated on the assumption that the EU will listen to his ideas and be prepared to make the kinds of changes he wants made.

The problem is that in a post remain scenario the leverage of any british representitive in the EU will be virtually zero- after all, what are they going to do- threaten a referendum?

By voting remain we are in effect giving a carte blanche to the EU to more of less ignore the UK in the future since we will have demonstrated that in the last anaylisis we are too afraid of the economic consequnces to leave.

So Corbyn's vision of a better, kinder and more democratic EU is, alas. a pipe dream- and a dream made less not more likely by a decision to vote remain.

The irony is that only a Brexit would deliver the kick up the backside that the EU requires to contemplate serious reform- so the truth is that the best way that Corbyn could advance his agenda for the EU would be to advocate leaving it.

Remain camp have continuously stated that there are frustrations with the EU and that we need to be on the pitch to change it. AFAIK euro and EU army would require a treaty change and thereby invoke a referendum. If the EU is intransigent, then yes, another referendum. The key, of course, is people power and we have to wait a few days to gauge that

[anonguest]

No UK political party wants the Euro, so the question doesn't arise.

Unless you envisage the unlikely scenario where a new party arises and gets elected to government on a platform of taking us into the Euro, and works its way around the constitutional hurdles involved.

Are you really so sure of that!

As others have said the end goal of the EU project is ever greater integration - and that means ultimately, one day, a genuinely single currency.

Thatcher was pro-European - up to a point. But she did not agree with the longer term plans as they came to light.

Since her day successive leaders ahve been progressively more willing to accomodate more and more of the 'integration'

It may well be that Cameron, personally, cannot bring himself to abandon the Pound - it may be his bridge too far.

But someone will replace him one day who will be that extra bit Euro enthusiastic and hapily ditch the Pound, along with a then new breed of pro-Euro MPs.

The point I make here is that this coming referendum could very easily be held up by such pro-Euro integrationists as the necessary 'licence' to proceed. They will say "No need for a referendum. We already had one and the people said they wanted to stay a part of the EU......."

I have no doubt that come that day there will be many who are going to vote Remain on Thursday who will, when that day comes, be aghast and outraged. But it will be too late by then. They don't seem to realise that voting remain will surrender any possibility of exercising self control for a generation.

[Sheeple Splinter]

Are you really so sure of that!

As others have said the end goal of the EU project is ever greater integration - and that means ultimately, one day, a genuinely single currency.

Thatcher was pro-European - up to a point. But she did not agree with the longer term plans as they came to light.

Since her day successive leaders ahve been progressively more willing to accomodate more and more of the 'integration'

It may well be that Cameron, personally, cannot bring himself to abandon the Pound - it may be his bridge too far.

But someone will replace him one day who will be that extra bit Euro enthusiastic and hapily ditch the Pound, along with a then new breed of pro-Euro MPs.

The point I make here is that this coming referendum could very easily be held up by such pro-Euro integrationists as the necessary 'licence' to proceed. They will say "No need for a referendum. We already had one and the people said they wanted to stay a part of the EU......."

I have no doubt that come that day there will be many who are going to vote Remain on Thursday who will, when that day comes, be aghast and outraged. But it will be too late by then. They don't seem to realise that voting remain will surrender any possibility of exercising self control for a generation.

Why is that?

[voldemort]

If we vote to remain, it will be very close thing, and Euroskepticism will remain a powerful force. I don't think the gov. Would get away with introducing the Euro. It would be political suicide.

[anonguest]

Why is that?

In much the same way we had only one referendum, back in 1975, asking us if we wanted to join a 'common market' - but over the ensuing years all manner of greater integration and surrender of sovereignty was foisted upon us without any referenda.

[Sheeple Splinter]

In much the same way we had only one referendum, back in 1975, asking us if we wanted to join a 'common market' - but over the ensuing years all manner of greater integration and surrender of sovereignty was foisted upon us without any referenda.

Yes, agreed and the boiling frog analogy is very apt, but I think the schisms in society are opening up beyond plasters of glib words. I don't think voters will tolerate more of the same and, like the SNP's perpetual referendum, I believe the referendum 'threat' is not going away until the societal issues are dealt with.

[wonderpup]

Remain camp have continuously stated that there are frustrations with the EU and that we need to be on the pitch to change it. AFAIK euro and EU army would require a treaty change and thereby invoke a referendum. If the EU is intransigent, then yes, another referendum. The key, of course, is people power and we have to wait a few days to gauge that

I don't think you understand that if the vote this time is 'remain' then the game is over.

Consider the basic argument put by the Remain camp- that to exit the EU would be economic suicide for the UK. If this premise is accepted by a majority in the UK then any future referendum becomes null and void because leaving is no longer an option.

So while other referendums might be held the outcome will be a forgone conclusion.

What the remain camp will have achived if they get their win is not the democratic agreement of the people of the UK but their abject surrender to fear and anxiety about life beyond the bureaucratic embrace of the EU. Many of the people who will vote to remain in the EU will not be doing so out of positive agreement with the EU and it's aims but out of fear of the consequnces of leaving it.

And I suspect the same fear will prevail in other EU countries should they ever be given the chance to vote on their membership. Exactly the same terror tactics were depolyed in Norway when they voted on EU membership.

So what is the EU becoming? An Empire of fear in which none dare leave for fear of the consequences? What kind of 'liberty' is this?

Let's be clear at least on this- if the Goverment win this referendum it will not represent a democratic mandate from a free people but the abject grovelling of a terrorized population against which all the propaganda powers of the state have been deployed in order to instill fear and anxiety to obtain not democratic assent but mere compliance- and compliance under threat is the antithesis of democracy.

[BearlyBegun]

Great post - I agree

I don't think you understand that if the vote this time is 'remain' then the game is over.

*snip*

[janch]

The "leave" camp have really missed a trick in their campaign. Remainers have used fear as their main weapon ie fear of the consequences of leaving. But what about fear of the consequences of remaining? Some countries , Greece especially, have had a terrible time since joining the EU and the euro. If we stay in, will we not possibly be drawn into the disaster which is brewing in the EU?

We signed up originally for a trade agreement. I like to think of it in terms of how we get on as neighbours. I can get on perfectly well with my neighbours and buy/sell things with them if I want to. This doesn't mean I want to pool all my money with them. I like to have some savings whereas my neighbour may want to be a spendthrift and blow all his cash.

We can still co-operate over many things if we are out of the EU. Leaving doesn't mean we cut-off all ties. When I listen to "project fear" people they seem to suggest this is what will happen which is complete nonsense.

[Sheeple Splinter]

I don't think you understand that if the vote this time is 'remain' then the game is over.

Consider the basic argument put by the Remain camp- that to exit the EU would be economic suicide for the UK. If this premise is accepted by a majority in the UK then any future referendum becomes null and void because leaving is no longer an option.

So while other referendums might be held the outcome will be a forgone conclusion.

...

I understand that Cameron has said no second referendum however, I think the game is far from over whatever the result. To use a cliché, there is a perfect storm brewing.

What should be interesting is once the EU starts to unravel anyway (potential banking crisis in any number of EU states, Greece obviously untenable, strong Euroscepticism in many countries, floods of refugees, tensions over Turkey, Merkel deposed and replaced by hardline nationalist) just how the current crop of Quislings attempt to spin their pro-EU stance in the referendum to a population that was probably around 50% hostile to remaining anyway and with many of the remain voters frightened into taking that position because of the predictions of disaster should the UK leave.. That could make for quite a reckoning.​

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/209933-gardian-latest-poll-shows-eu-exit-in-slight-lead/?p=1102964260

Edited June 21, 2016 by Sheeple Splinter

[cashinmattress]

IF we vote to stay in the EU will that be used as carte blanche by Westminster (whoever may be in power at the time) to take us into the Euro if they wanted to?

I think that a common electronic/digital currency in whatever form will be the issue, regardless of what the vote outcome is.

You are being given the illusion of choice. Won't make a bean of difference to what is already in store for us.

What, does anybody believe that our UK central bank won't take the lead and/or follow the others down this route?

Not sure about the time frame, but it is a 100% sure bet to happen at some point.

Edited June 21, 2016 by cashinmattress

[wonderpup]

I understand that Cameron has said no second referendum however, I think the game is far from over whatever the result. To use a cliché, there is a perfect storm brewing.

I think you are right about the long term future of the EU but in a storm people tend to hunker down in the hope it will pass- so if people are too scared to exit now when things are relatively calm it's hard to imagine that any referendum would deliver a leave vote if the EU were unravelling with all the financial turmoil this would bring- the cry would go up-as it already is from some places- for more EU, more integration, more top down control in order to deal with the situation.

So paradoxcial as it may seem the more the EU lurches into crisis the more it will be argued that the solution to this crisis is more EU integration. Recall that those who created the Euro were well aware that it would be a disaster without full integration of Eurozone countries at the level of debt and banking mutualisation- but they went ahead anyway because they believed that the inevitable crisis would bring about the level of integration that they knew they would never achive politcal support for.

The Euro was a trojan horse from the outset, it's purpose being to generate the crisis that was also to be the opportunity for the EU to instigate the coup d'etat it needed to overcome political opposition to closer integration at the fiscal level. And in due course that crisis arrived in 2008- however instead of the predicted integration, the Euro is causing disintegration as the southern european states attempt to balance the books by an austerity driven 'internal devaluation' that is decimating their economies.

Despite this the doctrine of 'never let a good crisis go to waste' is still the operating principle of the EU apparatchiks who even now cling to hope that if things get bad enough they can somehow cower the people's of Europe into accepting their primacy- and judging by the apparent success of 'project fear' in the UK they may yet be proven right.

Just as the Elite's solution to a debt crisis was more debt, their presecription for an EU crisis will be a call for more EU- and if people are frightened enough they may be persuaded to accept this at face value and stay with the devil they think they know.

Edited June 21, 2016 by wonderpup

[Riedquat]

Remain camp have continuously stated that there are frustrations with the EU and that we need to be on the pitch to change it. AFAIK euro and EU army would require a treaty change and thereby invoke a referendum. If the EU is intransigent, then yes, another referendum. The key, of course, is people power and we have to wait a few days to gauge that

If there was any chance of the EU reforming and purging its rotten federalist heart then I very much doubt that we'd be having this referendum.

[bobbo]

euro by 2026 if we vote remain.

Euro by 2026 of we vote leave;

2016 - vote leave

2018 - realise negotiations are difficult, pound loses reserve status

2020 - figure brexit was not such a great idea

2024 - start renegotiating reentry

2026 - EURO.

[cashinmattress]

Euro by 2026 of we vote leave;

2016 - vote leave

2018 - realise negotiations are difficult, pound loses reserve status

2020 - figure brexit was not such a great idea

2024 - start renegotiating reentry

2026 - EURO.

A pragmatist eh?

Depends on if said Euro survives another 10 years of PIIGS bailouts, with our without the UK.

[South Lorne]

A pragmatist eh?

Depends on if said Euro survives another 10 years of PIIGS bailouts, with our without the UK.

...latest date for German general election is October 2017 ...and the French are 2017 also.....do you think their people are happy with Europe ...?.....

[cashinmattress]

...latest date for German general election is October 2017 ...and the French are 2017 also.....do you think their people are happy with Europe ...?.....

The ones that have a stable job and enjoy access to social welfare are.

Yes, there are gripes...Hey, Germany has defacto currency control across all of Europe... and have done so without putting one jack boot in your province.

Nobody who lived through and lost via the last great war wants that, especially their closest 'neighbors'.

But still, it's better than the alternatives.

We don't have a bunch of Christian states slaying each other over paltry ideological differences or want of some prime European agricultural lands.