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TheCountOfNowhere

The Uk Mega Bubble

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The UK housing market is clearly insane.

The Tories duelled this in the run up to the G.E. if you as me.

It struck me today that post g.e. lettig it crash before the RU ref would have been silly

Lately looks like the rug has been pulled from under the market...has all this insanity been to increase their chances of winning the EU ref?

Scary thought teally

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The UK housing market is clearly insane.

The Tories duelled this in the run up to the G.E. if you as me.

It struck me today that post g.e. lettig it crash before the RU ref would have been silly

Lately looks like the rug has been pulled from under the market...has all this insanity been to increase their chances of winning the EU ref?

Scary thought teally

I think they extended the bubble for the EU vote too. Might have backfired because property owning boomers alone seen not likely to vote brexit anyway.

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IF BTL mortgages fall as quickly as the last month, surely a big crash is inevitable? Unless banks weaken standards for non LLs? BTL is such a big wedge of the market now.

OTOH

When do all the HTB deposit ISAs mature? Big glut of buyers waiting down the line in a year or two?

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Up here 25% since last year so I'm going no.

Hate to say it but that's more or less what I'm seeing... and I'm in the grim and desolate North.

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Price means nothing now IMO with things like HTB and 35 year mortgages as long as monthly payment is affordable and more importanly less than rent then people are still buying.

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Price means nothing now IMO with things like HTB and 35 year mortgages as long as monthly payment is affordable and more importanly less than rent then people are still buying.

Totally agree with that - The "price" is becoming an ever more abstract concept for more and more aspects of what could be called modern life. As covered in other threads, applies to cars (traditionally the second most expensive purchase people would make).

An increasing move to a month-by-month view of the world.

Is difficult to see how this can be resolved without massive currency devaluation IMHO.

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Mate of mine I referenced a while back sold their 3bed semi to a DEBTjunkie rushing to beat the April deadline and in true DEBTjunkie fashion overpaying by 15% on last year's high for the road in the process. (Gotta be in it to win it, innit.)

Mate and wife immediately up sized into a 200k bigger DEBThouse on a 35year joint mortgage well into their 30s. Sound.

Well that purchase fell through but their house went so they're in the market for another big old DEBTpile. They've agreed on a 4bed detached in a road of 4 bed detached the highest price paid in said road was 280k at the peakiest of tim fraud bubble peak in 2007.

Take a guess what theyve paid go on I dare you.

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Mate of mine I referenced a while back sold their 3bed semi to a DEBTjunkie rushing to beat the April deadline and in true DEBTjunkie fashion overpaying by 15% on last year's high for the road in the process. (Gotta be in it to win it, innit.)

Mate and wife immediately up sized into a 200k bigger DEBThouse on a 35year joint mortgage well into their 30s. Sound.

Well that purchase fell through but their house went so they're in the market for another big old DEBTpile. They've agreed on a 4bed detached in a road of 4 bed detached the highest price paid in said road was 280k at the peakiest of tim fraud bubble peak in 2007.

Take a guess what theyve paid go on I dare you.

420k

Bubbles burst. This one is the biggest ever and the govt shot most of their arsenal off last time. It's mental, and a little scary.

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I agree that prices are meaningless to most people - it boils down to monthly payments, because (sickeningly) in their minds they don't even know if they'll be in a job next year, so it's all about meeting monthly payments for the forseeable (12 month max). Gimmicks like HTB bring down the monthly payments even though they will put UP the monthlies in 5 years' time. Borrowing money is never about wondering how you're going to make the 17th years' monthly payments - it's about the next few months.

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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Wow they really did get a bargain! Only 400k!

280k in 2007 seemed loopy given the average wage in this town is probably 18k tops. But these are 2x public sector workers so jobs for life I guess? For me though the kicker is the 35year mortgages. These have come in on the sly I reckon as I know of three couples in the past year all getting on the DEBTtrain for this length of time.

Someone behind the scenes has clearly flipped the switch from 25 or 30 to 35. It explains the DEBTprice inflation better than anything else to me.

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Nothing wrong with taking on a longer mortgage term *if and only if*

A) you're young

B) you're in a very secure job and have plans on being a drone in it permanently

C) (crucially) you're not doing it so you can borrow more money, or to make it 'affordable', but your reasoning is more that you'll invest the excess that you would have otherwise paid elsewhere.

D) you have at least some plan in place to overpay massively whenever and wherever possible and have a mortgage that allows that without penalty.

I would guess that for 99.999999999% of people taking these mortgages, none of the above applies though.

I guess similar sensible 'rules' could apply to Interest Only mortgages, except we can see that in general the public behaves completely and utterly irresponsibly instead, with the lender just after the signature.

Edited by Frugal Git

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Wow they really did get a bargain! Only 400k!

280k in 2007 seemed loopy given the average wage in this town is probably 18k tops. But these are 2x public sector workers so jobs for life I guess? For me though the kicker is the 35year mortgages. These have come in on the sly I reckon as I know of three couples in the past year all getting on the DEBTtrain for this length of time.

Someone behind the scenes has clearly flipped the switch from 25 or 30 to 35. It explains the DEBTprice inflation better than anything else to me.

That is truly insane.

The Tories have devalued money via their Qe FLS HTB thievery...they ate taking everything from us.

Anyone supporting these people and voting remain needs to be make a good look at themselves in the mirror

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I agree that prices are meaningless to most people - it boils down to monthly payments, because (sickeningly) in their minds they don't even know if they'll be in a job next year, so it's all about meeting monthly payments for the forseeable (12 month max). Gimmicks like HTB bring down the monthly payments even though they will put UP the monthlies in 5 years' time. Borrowing money is never about wondering how you're going to make the 17th years' monthly payments - it's about the next few months.

The clever thing about that from the banks and government point of view is that if they can get everyone into this mindset then they can offload RISK. The risk all goes onto the borrower while they cream off the profits. Nice work if you can get it and don't give a t*** about anyone else. It's taken a few years to get to this change in peoples' minds but they have succeeeded............ ........................until HPC :)

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Wow they really did get a bargain! Only 400k!

280k in 2007 seemed loopy given the average wage in this town is probably 18k tops. But these are 2x public sector workers so jobs for life I guess? For me though the kicker is the 35year mortgages. These have come in on the sly I reckon as I know of three couples in the past year all getting on the DEBTtrain for this length of time.

Someone behind the scenes has clearly flipped the switch from 25 or 30 to 35. It explains the DEBTprice inflation better than anything else to me.

At the last minute bankers had the Mortgage Market Review 25 year maximum mortgage term removed and the length of term was left open ended. Extending the term to reduce the initial monthly payments obviously makes a lot more mortgages look "affordable".

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At the last minute bankers had the Mortgage Market Review 25 year maximum mortgage term removed and the length of term was left open ended. Extending the term to reduce the initial monthly payments obviously makes a lot more mortgages look "affordable".

That would make MMR the complete opposite of what we were told right? extend and pretend til the end. BOOM.

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i give up, i work 1 year, prices increase 2 years pay, i work 2 years, prices go up 4 years pay, and so on.

I'd give up all my savings, pensions, shares to just watch it burn now. screw them all.

As if... The very idea that normal people should be able to save their earnings from hard work to get ahead!

Oh no, that's not how it's done now. They have to sucker you into borrowing ever increasing amounts and keep you paying it back till you die from old age.

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i give up, i work 1 year, prices increase 2 years pay, i work 2 years, prices go up 4 years pay, and so on.

I'd give up all my savings, pensions, shares to just watch it burn now. screw them all.

I feel pretty similar. It is incredibly dispiriting to work really hard and go backwards all the time. I have been thinking i might go down to 3 days a week for a while, it doesn't seem worth making the effort with the way things are at the moment (until 2025 if RK is to be believed).

Was really positive that it was the start of a big correction in london, but even that seems to have stalled. Pretty much out of patience now.

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I feel pretty similar. It is incredibly dispiriting to work really hard and go backwards all the time. I have been thinking i might go down to 3 days a week for a while, it doesn't seem worth making the effort with the way things are at the moment (until 2025 if RK is to be believed).

Was really positive that it was the start of a big correction in london, but even that seems to have stalled. Pretty much out of patience now.

The quicker the work hard do the right thing cohort opt out the quicker the whole thing resets. I've been doing my bit since Feb.

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I feel pretty similar. It is incredibly dispiriting to work really hard and go backwards all the time. I have been thinking i might go down to 3 days a week for a while, it doesn't seem worth making the effort with the way things are at the moment (until 2025 if RK is to be believed).

Was really positive that it was the start of a big correction in london, but even that seems to have stalled. Pretty much out of patience now.

Glad its not just me. The last three years have been grim - I've saved thousands, my salary has increases yet I'm way, way further off buying somewhere than I was back then. What's worrying too is that these insane prices begin to seem normal when you're seeing them every day - I find myself looking at properties that have almost boubled over the last 5 years but because everyhting else is even more insane they look a bargain!

If I could see an end in sight I wouldn't feel so disillusioned. I could see TPTB pumping up the market before the election to get those bubble price votes, but I thought it would settle down afterwards. Not round here. I thought the troubles in prime London would start to seep out to other areas. Not round here. Finally I thought the new BTL tax changes might slam the brake on. Not round here. And despite prices being at insane levels above the last crash I never hear anyone I know talking as though these prices are unusual - and until sentiment changes I can't see any crash occuring.

I think the *only* thing now that will changes things is an interest rate change - and now America seems to have cold feet about raising their rates i can't see us doing anything for years.

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Glad its not just me. The last three years have been grim - I've saved thousands, my salary has increases yet I'm way, way further off buying somewhere than I was back then. What's worrying too is that these insane prices begin to seem normal when you're seeing them every day - I find myself looking at properties that have almost boubled over the last 5 years but because everyhting else is even more insane they look a bargain!

If I could see an end in sight I wouldn't feel so disillusioned. I could see TPTB pumping up the market before the election to get those bubble price votes, but I thought it would settle down afterwards. Not round here. I thought the troubles in prime London would start to seep out to other areas. Not round here. Finally I thought the new BTL tax changes might slam the brake on. Not round here. And despite prices being at insane levels above the last crash I never hear anyone I know talking as though these prices are unusual - and until sentiment changes I can't see any crash occuring.

I think the *only* thing now that will changes things is an interest rate change - and now America seems to have cold feet about raising their rates i can't see us doing anything for years.

All too familiar story which i'm hearing every day, myself included in this situation too so I feel your pain.

I managed to get a decent relatively secure job 4 years ago when prices had been relatively stable post 08' and naturally planned to buy a house around now based on how the market was back then. Now I'm here with a modest deposit, which would have been enough, and looking at prices 50%+ higher in the SE.

I've resigned myself to not owning in a bubbly part of the UK (which rules a lot of it out to be fair), as even if prices did drop following Brexit or worsening economic factors, homes would still be very bad value vs wages. If we opt to own, then it'll be a move north to areas that have seen only modest gains, many of which are still below their pre-crisis peak, and to take advantage of low interest rates, ideally locking in a 5 year fix or if we're happy with it a 10 year fix to pay it off fully. I'm still holding out until mid 2018 to be able to do this financially, interest rates wouldn't have gone anywhere by then as I'm certain the global economy will be in a pretty grim state.

Mortgage free in 10 years is my best scenario, having one truly does seem to be the biggest burden in life and being on here has educated me to revaluate what's more important, there is no happiness in working your a**e off until you're 65 to pay off a small house you never really liked anyway to then keel over from a heart attack at 66.

I'm thankful in a way that we don't have children and my job is portable, she'd take a hit in wages but we'd calculate everything based on my income being the sole.

It's flipping difficult right now but take comfort in the minor, if any, increases in the rental market due to the mass rush into BTL, the gradual tax relief changes which WILL affect them in the next couple years onwards, and the fact that pretty much every working professional I talk to is now in the same position. Only the ones with inheritance or BOMAD are buying right now, and you can see the intense fear in their eyes just before they commit mixed with huge resigned dissapointment at what they get for their money. £400k for a tiny 2 bed terrace on a main road, with damp problems, a loooong walk from the station etc. But we've got a small Waitrose woohoo!

These stories being told every single day, gaining momentum, the Global economy ready to pop almost 10 years since the last, we're reaching breaking point, this is what happened last time, don't be sucked into the madness and take a step back B)

Now i'm off to cry in a corner...

Edited by Barnsey

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