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Landlord Mortgages Plummet

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Not sure if this has been posted yet - certainly a headline that brightened my day...

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jun/15/landlord-mortgages-plummet-by-85-after-stamp-duty-changes

Whilst round my way I'm not seeing much new coming onto the market, it will be interesting to see if landlords retreating from the market will lead to what properties are up for sale failing to shift.

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Almost enough to put a smile on my avatar.

Can't remember if it is 80% of new build are bought by BTL or 80% of all residential mortgages, but if the latter and landlords don't come back into the market over the next few months then that would mean a serious fall in buyers. Maybe I'll buy shares in a popcorn company soon.

Edited by doahh

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I can't imagine its the latter but the former seems more implausible. Why on earth would a BTLer buy a new build with all its inbuilt additional costs..

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The greatest of the greater fools have now been identified !!!

Sadly, I think the people buying were probably pensioners encouraged by Osborne etc.....you can just see it coming....cant you.

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Not sure if this has been posted yet - certainly a headline that brightened my day...

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jun/15/landlord-mortgages-plummet-by-85-after-stamp-duty-changes

Whilst round my way I'm not seeing much new coming onto the market, it will be interesting to see if landlords retreating from the market will lead to what properties are up for sale failing to shift.

'Landlord mortgages plummet by 85% after stamp duty changes'

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I can't imagine its the latter but the former seems more implausible. Why on earth would a BTLer buy a new build with all its inbuilt additional costs..

Because it's a market full of millions of individual viewpoints and readings of the market?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detail.html?country=england&locationIdentifier=REGION%5E11649&searchLocation=Hale

You only have to get an article about QE, for someone here to tip up about 'crash-cancelled'. HPI HPI HPI.

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Went and looked at a couple of previous cml reports. Last year (2015) new BTL loans went 7900, 8800, 8600 (feb, mar, apr) and this year it is 10400, 28700, 4200.

Hard to say if the upwards trend has been broken. Hopefully clearer in a month or two.

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Almost enough to put a smile on my avatar.

Can't remember if it is 80% of new build are bought by BTL or 80% of all residential mortgages, but if the latter and landlords don't come back into the market over the next few months then that would mean a serious fall in buyers. Maybe I'll buy shares in a popcorn company soon.

It was 80% of net lending as of Nov 2015. Basically BTL is currently accounting for the majority of mortgage growth.

See The Outlook for Countercyclical Macroprudential Policy - speech by Sir Jon Cunliffe (h/t Ghost Bird).

Edited by Neverwhere

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Went and looked at a couple of previous cml reports. Last year (2015) new BTL loans went 7900, 8800, 8600 (feb, mar, apr) and this year it is 10400, 28700, 4200.

Hard to say if the upwards trend has been broken. Hopefully clearer in a month or two.

Given those figures it looks very much like there was an (unsurprising) large increase in the number of mortgages to beat the stamp duty deadline. This month's figure looks purely to be a result of very high activity the previous month. As you say, it'll become clearer in the coming months.

Edited by The_Equalizer

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Went and looked at a couple of previous cml reports. Last year (2015) new BTL loans went 7900, 8800, 8600 (feb, mar, apr) and this year it is 10400, 28700, 4200.

Hard to say if the upwards trend has been broken. Hopefully clearer in a month or two.

Which was mentioned in the article

The figures show a 51% year-on-year fall in activity, from 8,600 loans in April 2015

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It was 80% of net lending as of Nov 2015. Basically BTL is currently accounting for the majority of mortgage growth.

See The Outlook for Countercyclical Macroprudential Policy - speech by Sir Jon Cunliffe (h/t Ghost Bird).

Plus The Times reported: "Departmental figures show that the vast majority of new housing in the UK since the turn of the millennium has been bought by landlords. Between 2000 and 2012, the private rented sector has accounted for some 2.5 million of the extra homes. Only 400,000 have been bought by occupiers."

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It was 80% of net lending as of Nov 2015. Basically BTL is currently accounting for the majority of mortgage growth.

See The Outlook for Countercyclical Macroprudential Policy - speech by Sir Jon Cunliffe (h/t Ghost Bird).

Thanks. From the link (published in November 2015):

Buy to let now represents 16% of the overall mortgage stock and accounted for 80% of net lending over the past year.

So for the last 18 months the majority of lending was BTL which for now seems to have slumped.

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Thanks. From the link (published in November 2015):

So for the last 18 months the majority of lending was BTL which for now seems to have slumped.

Who else in their right mind was buying ?

It's a massive speculative bubble....Joe Bloggs cant afford to join in now

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Plus The Times reported: "Departmental figures show that the vast majority of new housing in the UK since the turn of the millennium has been bought by landlords. Between 2000 and 2012, the private rented sector has accounted for some 2.5 million of the extra homes. Only 400,000 have been bought by occupiers."

That does nicely demonstrate the practical implications of the difference in net growth, which is clearly much more heavily weighted towards BTL than towards owner-occupiers (if it weren't then rates of owner-occupation would not be in decline).

I think that The Times might be putting a slight gloss on it by assuming that any increase in the PRS is accounted for by landlords buying newly built properties though, when Countrywide has them predominantly buying and/or retaining (in the case of homemovers who rent out their previous residences) existing housing stock:

1,550,000 properties have gone from being lived in by their owner to being lived in by a tenant, while 550,000 have moved the other way, from the private rented sector into owner occupation. This has resulted in an extra million homes being occupied by a tenant rather than a homeowner, equivalent to the number of households in the North East of England.

Homes transferring from owner occupation into the private rented sector accounted for half of the growth in the number of privately rented homes over the same period. Most of the remaining growth in the private rented sector has come from landlords buying new build homes. 700,000 new homes built since 2005 have found their way into the private rented sector. The remaining homes changing tenure have come from social housing and residential conversions.

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I can't imagine its the latter but the former seems more implausible. Why on earth would a BTLer buy a new build with all its inbuilt additional costs..

You need to split new build flats from conventional houses, BTL loves flats.

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You need to split new build flats from conventional houses, BTL loves flats.

Oooh. Newly built flats furnished with cheap fake leather furniture and mirrored wardrobes, hoping for a newly qualified lawyer just bursting at the seems to overpay to rent it. And then the actual tenant they get is a Dhss claimant who trashes the place and pockets the last couple of months rent. But this is Burnley. Oh the humanity.

Edited by Si1

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If you remove the bottom of the pyramid...whatcha think happens next ?

:D:D:D:D

Um, hang on, don't tell me...

Frees up space for a basement car park?

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Oooh. Newly built flats furnished with cheap fake leather furniture and mirrored wardrobes, hoping for a newly qualified lawyer just bursting at the seems to overpay to rent it. And then the actual tenant they get is a Dhss claimant who trashes the place and pockets the last couple of months rent. But this is Burnley. Oh the humanity.

If that happens you serve a section 21 notice, claim back through the courts, and just put the rents up for the next tenant to cover the difference, innit. Think of it as an insurance premium is what I always say when they question it. I'm not running a charity here after all.

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If that happens you serve a section 21 notice, claim back through the courts, and just put the rents up for the next tenant to cover the difference, innit. Think of it as an insurance premium is what I always say when they question it. I'm not running a charity here after all.

I know you're taking the p1ss but, god, you should see how absent LLs are getting reemed in the NE.

Mr + Mrs Surrey - oh the yields are great in County Durham. Lets buy a few houses to let out.

CoDurham Letting agent: Yes, we offer a fully managed service.

CoDurham Council - We dont want this scum. Let the private sector house them.

CoDurham Scum tenant - I got a new house. Im not paying rent. Lets sell the central heating before it gets repod.

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Oooh. Newly built flats furnished with cheap fake leather furniture and mirrored wardrobes, hoping for a newly qualified lawyer just bursting at the seems to overpay to rent it. And then the actual tenant they get is a Dhss claimant who trashes the place and pockets the last couple of months rent. But this is Burnley. Oh the humanity.

:D:D:D

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If that happens you serve a section 21 notice, claim back through the courts, and just put the rents up for the next tenant to cover the difference, innit.

You are Mr 118 and I claim my fiver.

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You are Mr 118 and I claim my fiver.

Fine, I'll just put the rents up by a fiver. Like any good business I pass on my costs to my customers, innit.

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