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Longtermrenter

Nimby Housing Development Protest Near Hythe In Kent

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Protesters from Sellindge and Lympne march to oppose Otterpool Park 'garden town' plan

http://www.kentonline.co.uk/folkestone/news/protesters-march-against-gigantic-housing-96916/

Mainly older faces in the accompanying photographs.

I believe this is the same group that didn't want a sewage treatment works but presumably still wanted to have flushing toilets.

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Sad to see on here that people still buy into the 'build more homes to reduce prices' nonsense.

We undoubtedly need more decent houses, 15 years of building BTL flats is not a good thing, but I think we all accept it's pintless building anything till this madness ends.

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The more BTLers and HTBers buy these new houses, the more competition for the rental market driving down prices and the more likely HTBers will get into trouble at a later date and will have to sell. My missus has signed the petition against this as her sister lives near there even though we are dyed in the wool HPCers, well, I am anyway.

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The more BTLers and HTBers buy these new houses, the more competition for the rental market driving down prices and the more likely HTBers will get into trouble at a later date and will have to sell. My missus has signed the petition against this as her sister lives near there even though we are dyed in the wool HPCers, well, I am anyway.

Quite a long term bet though. I'd oppose it simply because it won't drive down prices, quite the opposite.

http://capx.co/lse-pilot-study-confirms-that-increasing-new-housebuilding-does-not-drive-down-house-prices/

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Quite a long term bet though. I'd oppose it simply because it won't drive down prices, quite the opposite.

http://capx.co/lse-pilot-study-confirms-that-increasing-new-housebuilding-does-not-drive-down-house-prices/

Maybe, but if plots of land for individuals to build homes on became available for renters to self build these people would still protest. Some of them are from estates built in the 00's. It's actually a sensible place in Kent for this to be built as well. Garden village one side of motorway, operation stack overflow the other. For these protesters it's all about their house prices. Edited by Longtermrenter

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I'm not so sure it's about their house prices. We've seen most Boomers decide that Brexit is more important than forever house price inflation. I suspect their arguments are more that they don't want some sinkhole estate next door. There are plenty of brownfield sites in that area that developers could build on. We need farming land to remain as such in this country, particularly if we are going to be welcoming 300k people a year.

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More housing supply-less competitive bidding, less competitive bidding - less hpi.

No competitive bidding, no hpi at all.

Build more fecking houses.

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Quite a long term bet though. I'd oppose it simply because it won't drive down prices, quite the opposite.

http://capx.co/lse-pilot-study-confirms-that-increasing-new-housebuilding-does-not-drive-down-house-prices/

The Spanish have found that building a lot of new homes makes prices really cheap. I have family in Spain. In 2005 prices there were about 60% of prices where I live in London now about 10%.

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The Spanish have found that building a lot of new homes makes prices really cheap. I have family in Spain. In 2005 prices there were about 60% of prices where I live in London now about 10%.

The Spanish situation is different, due to about 30 other factors, not just more housebuilding. Massive youth employment, moves by the local governments to block foreign ownership, lower wages, few government backed buying schemes, lack of overseas investors due to Euro worries, etc etc.

Edited by spunko2010

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The Spanish situation is different, due to about 30 other factors, not just more housebuilding. Massive youth employment, moves by the local governments to block foreign ownership, lower wages, few government backed buying schemes, lack of overseas investors due to Euro worries, etc etc.

I would agree that there are other factors in Spain - but to say that the building of lots of homes has had no affect seems hard to believe.

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Why do you think it's hard to believe? You can build any number of houses in a damaged economy, nobody will buy them.

In a "safe" economy - which the UK may or may not be, once you scratch the surface - building more houses just drives up the costs, assuming credit is easy to obtain. People just get take out bigger and bigger mortgages, because they can, and thus prices rise. If you magically built 10,000 new homes today in the UK they'd get bought instantly on 30 year mortgages. Until interest rates go up or lending becomes stricter, it won't change.

I think I'll add this to my signature: http://www.ntu.ac.uk/apps/news/185530-15/New-build_homes_make_property_more_unaffordable_study_shows.aspx

Edited by spunko2010

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Why do you think it's hard to believe? You can build any number of houses in a damaged economy, nobody will buy them.

In a "safe" economy - which the UK may or may not be, once you scratch the surface - building more houses just drives up the costs, assuming credit is easy to obtain. People just get take out bigger and bigger mortgages, because they can, and thus prices rise. If you magically built 10,000 new homes today in the UK they'd get bought instantly on 30 year mortgages. Until interest rates go up or lending becomes stricter, it won't change.

If you magically built 1 or 2 million houses sentiment would change and prices would fall. 10,000 is less than the need created by one month's immigration so not a valid argument.

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2 million homes won't get built over the next 20 years, let alone instantly. Unless you are talking about literally flooding the market with 20x more homes than the market "needs", then yes, that probably would cause a significant drop.

But I thought we were talking about realistic/generous targets, not pie in the sky ones.

Also, I don't buy the idea that 300k/year immigrants flooding this country need a house each. They tend to live in bedsits, or 4 to a bed, even in tents, or whatever. All the Bulgarians in my car wash live in a hostel. Even with such generous credit available, I doubt most of them are able to borrow to own a house.

Edited by spunko2010

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When houses are bought with bank credit rather than actual wages, number of houses becomes close to irrelevant for the vast majority.

DEBT DRIVES PRICES!

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2 million homes won't get built over the next 20 years, let alone instantly. Unless you are talking about literally flooding the market with 20x more homes than the market "needs", then yes, that probably would cause a significant drop.

But I thought we were talking about realistic/generous targets, not pie in the sky ones.

In Spain 500K homes were built in 2005

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%9315_Spanish_financial_crisis#cite_note-21

So we could do it in 4 years.

However I think house building is not the solution on its own but with changes to immigration, benefits system (make single mums share) and lending we could solve this problem, if there was the will but I don't think there is.

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In Spain 500K homes were built in 2005

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%9315_Spanish_financial_crisis#cite_note-21

So we could do it in 4 years.

However I think house building is not the solution on its own but with changes to immigration, benefits system (make single mums share) and lending we could solve this problem, if there was the will but I don't think there is.

Let me reword it then. If you look at the number of houses being built in Spain between 1997 and 2007, and compare it with the prices of houses in the same period, then that means the prices should be going down as demand drops (ie there are more homes on the market / oversupply). But that didn't happen, prices kept rising as did housebuilding, until other serious economic shocks kicked in, and people couldn't afford to buy a house. Even with all these 3M empty properties nobody can afford them, not anyone Spanish anyway. But I guess that's another point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_property_bubble

Edited by spunko2010

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