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The Official Brexit - Remain Thread - All New Threads Will Be Merged Into This One


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Bump.

A quick google shows Brexit has moved on from being some vague, far-away event to odds-on favourite.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2016/01/currencies

That article doesn't suggest a Brexit is odds-on

Indeed, Brexit was one of my five possible surprises for 2016. The betting markets still think Britain will stay in; Predict has the odds of Brexit at 30%, Paddy Power at around 36%. But this optimism seems to be based on the theory that the polls are wrong; most show the two sides very close or the Brexit side slightly ahead

The German bank and bookies quoted have a Brexit at 2/1 against, or the polls are running about even money.

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That article doesn't suggest a Brexit is odds-on

The German bank and bookies quoted have a Brexit at 2/1 against, or the polls are running about even money.

Re-quoting:

'Indeed, Brexit was one of my five possible surprises for 2016. The betting markets still think Britain will stay in; Predict has the odds of Brexit at 30%, Paddy Power at around 36%. But this optimism seems to be based on the theory that the polls are wrong; most show the two sides very close or the Brexit side slightly ahead. Perhaps British voters will shy away from the uncertainties at the last minute and back the status quo. But while they think about it, sterling will be under pressure.'

My rough + ready polling is coming back at 60% Out, 40% In.

I see more moving to Out as the asylum and Clais situations get worse + worse.

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Re-quoting:

'Indeed, Brexit was one of my five possible surprises for 2016. The betting markets still think Britain will stay in; Predict has the odds of Brexit at 30%, Paddy Power at around 36%. But this optimism seems to be based on the theory that the polls are wrong; most show the two sides very close or the Brexit side slightly ahead. Perhaps British voters will shy away from the uncertainties at the last minute and back the status quo. But while they think about it, sterling will be under pressure.'

My rough + ready polling is coming back at 60% Out, 40% In.

I see more moving to Out as the asylum and Clais situations get worse + worse.

I gamble and take stock of odds and when people misrepresent them because I don't like to think people might place bets on false info.

Berenberg, the German bank, has increased the likelihood that Britain votes to exit the EU from 30% to 35%

The betting markets still think Britain will stay in; Predict has the odds of Brexit at 30%, Paddy Power at around 36%

Both of those are well odds on about 1-2, there is no Brexit. Admittedly the polling in the article is slightly ahead, though even then the expectation is for British voters to swing the other way

If you had posted "my rough and ready polling has Brexit ahead now" instead of mentioning betting odds and posting a link to an article that is overwhelming the opposite way to your views, I wouldn't have commented. Of course there could be a Brexit and you could right that it should be odds-on now.

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I gamble and take stock of odds and when people misrepresent them because I don't like to think people might place bets on false info.

Berenberg, the German bank, has increased the likelihood that Britain votes to exit the EU from 30% to 35%

The betting markets still think Britain will stay in; Predict has the odds of Brexit at 30%, Paddy Power at around 36%

Both of those are well odds on about 1-2, there is no Brexit. Admittedly the polling in the article is slightly ahead, though even then the expectation is for British voters to swing the other way

If you had posted "my rough and ready polling has Brexit ahead now" instead of mentioning betting odds and posting a link to an article that is overwhelming the opposite way to your views, I wouldn't have commented. Of course there could be a Brexit and you could right that it should be odds-on now.

Criticism accepted.

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Pretty sure I'll be voting "out", but not fully made up my mind yet. I do however think the vote will be "in" just because - when push comes to shove - people tend to prefer "no change". Witness Scottish referendum, and even the last GE to some extent. Unless the EU situation (the refugee crisis, in particular) deteriorates markedly before the poll, in which case it just might happen (but if there are signs of that, they'll put the poll off until next year if they can).

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- people tend to prefer "no change".

I agree, but i said before, no matter how stupid the current policy is, what people really hate is the feeling of going backwards. If we could just come up with the illusion we were replacing the EU with something "grander", no matter how stupid, people would vote for it. I propose the "world union of independent nations". It requires no new legislation, functions exactly like the rest of the world does currently, but has a catchier title.

Edited by Steppenpig
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The 'stay' camp have a major advantage in that they choose when the vote will take place. My greatest fear is that the leave campaign peaks too soon because they do not control the date of the vote. In all the debates I have seen the leave argument has smashed the stay argument. In fact, the stay argument is very very weak. It is basically defeatist saying we have to except the EU has flaws but we need it or we are economically in trouble. What they really mean is big business will be affected if we leave.

Voters need to carefully look at those who are pushing for us to stay. Big business of course wants us to stay. They want cheap labour and a common market and don't care about democracy, consumers, the workers or even the middle classes. They care about one thing... profit for themselves. These are the same multinationals that do whatever they can to avoid taxes. Don't trust them to protect the minimum wage jobs they offer at the moment.

I see that Betfair is mentioned above. Betfair was a great idea providing cheap person to person betting and a great benefit to punters. Despite the common market Betfair failed to get into Europe for exchange betting. One by one European countries closed it down. In Germany they wanted a massive turnover tax. In Spain and Italy and seperate costly exchange. In France it is totally banned. What has happened since is a brilliant idea has failed and the company has changed into a typical multinational as a regular sportsbook who overcharges their customers and bans winning punters. Betfair is now based offshore to reduce its tax bill and run by professional management. The founders who set out to create a better world for gamblers are long gone. It has made its current management team very rich, Europe destroyed a great idea because the reality is the markets are not open,

Those odds represent the fear factor and the influence big business and politicians who are looking for a big business job after politics. These people have the money and power to influence the vote. I think grass root power will win over and we will vote to leave and form a new relationship with Europe and the world for trade. But even if we do leave I would not bet against big business being there again influencing the trade agreements we make in future.

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I see that Betfair is mentioned above. Betfair was a great idea providing cheap person to person betting and a great benefit to punters. Despite the common market Betfair failed to get into Europe for exchange betting. One by one European countries closed it down. In Germany they wanted a massive turnover tax. In Spain and Italy and seperate costly exchange. In France it is totally banned. What has happened since is a brilliant idea has failed and the company has changed into a typical multinational as a regular sportsbook who overcharges their customers and bans winning punters. Betfair is now based offshore to reduce its tax bill and run by professional management. The founders who set out to create a better world for gamblers are long gone. It has made its current management team very rich, Europe destroyed a great idea because the reality is the markets are not open,

I think the founders, ex city boys, set out to make themselves a lot of money. When it floated on the stock exchange they got their dosh and now there are shareholders to appease, it's run differently.

Personally I think the exchange model failed. The running costs of providing an infrastructure, staff etc. etc. were too high. Their flawed original commission structure didn't generate enough profit to cover increasing costs. It was 2% to 5% but charged new customers the highest rate. You need to attract more new customers. They should have charged say 2% to 10%, the lowest rate for new customers, with it increasing as people won more. Now the 20% to 60% Premium Charge has over corrected their original error. It's highlighted how much people paid in commission via churn and driven punters away. Hence the sportsbook now being more important to them and the default site that new customers see.

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I wouldn't want to hijack a Brexit thread to talk about the Betfair pricing structure. My view is that the commission structure always favoured traders over gamblers which was good for initial liquidity growth but wrong to maintain interest for punters.

From an EU perspective it is interesting that despite all the talk of the single market how a new innovative product that would benefit consumers was effectively shut out of doing business in Europe even when It was based and paying taxes in the UK.

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Re-quoting:

.....

My rough + ready polling is coming back at 60% Out, 40% In.

I see more moving to Out as the asylum and Clais situations get worse + worse.

I think the immigration crisis could be crucial in swaying opinion towards an out vote. Greece has more or less been threatened with being ring fenced for not doing Merkel's dirty work, and turning itself into a giant holding camp for the millions that Merkel invited in.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/12126279/Is-Greece-about-to-be-martyred-again-by-the-EU.html

If they go ahead and re-introduce border controls between Greece and the rest of Schengen then it will have minimal effect on the numbers flooding into Greece from Turkey.

What it will do is overwhelm Greece, and probably trigger all out riots along it's borders with the rest of the EU as they try to break out towards Germany. A substantial number of the immigrants will get nasty quickly if their progress is impeded. And we could be talking hundreds of thousands of fighting age blokes yelling about Allan's snack bar, etc.

Footage of this on TV will be extremely damaging for Merkel and Cameron.

Edited by newbonic
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I agree, but i said before, no matter how stupid the current policy is, what people really hate is the feeling of going backwards. If we could just come up with the illusion we were replacing the EU with something "grander", no matter how stupid, people would vote for it. I propose the "world union of independent nations". It requires no new legislation, functions exactly like the rest of the world does currently, but has a catchier title.

I think there should be greater emphasis on the Commonwealth too - should strike a chord with the grey vote.

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I think the immigration crisis could be crucial in swaying opinion towards an out vote. Greece has more or less been threatened with being ring fenced for not doing Merkel's dirty work, and turning itself into a giant holding camp for the millions that Merkel invited in.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/12126279/Is-Greece-about-to-be-martyred-again-by-the-EU.html

If they go ahead and re-introduce border controls between Greece and the rest of Schengen then it will have minimal effect on the numbers flooding into Greece from Turkey.

What it will do is overwhelm Greece, and probably trigger all out riots along it's borders with the rest of the EU as they try to break out towards Germany. A substantial number of the immigrants will get nasty quickly if their progress is impeded. And we could be talking hundreds of thousands of fighting age blokes yelling about Allan's snack bar, etc.

Footage of this on TV will be extremely damaging for Merkel and Cameron.

I wonder why the EU does not take the UK stance over refugees & migrants. Ref/Mig. applications to live in EU countries controlled from the camps around Syria only. Migrants & refugees already on route without 'authorisation' would be returned to those camps or possibly first country of entry.

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The way in which the Greeks are being hung out to dry is just shocking - again, it appears to be a decision taken by a core of German, Flemish and Luxembourgian EU politicians.

To me it appears that the Greeks have somehow been 'devaluated' from being Europeans and are being punished for not towing the EU line. That, in itself, is shocking. Is this what happens to European now if they do not go along with the great EU plans?

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How Brexit will put extra pressure on the pound

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7ee78420-c5b6-11e5-b3b1-7b2481276e45.html#axzz3yZukPHN9

Article quoting pound in your pocket ...

'Crucially, though, sterling has dropped in tandem with a sharp rise in the cost of insuring UK sovereign debt against default. Speculators are adding to bets that the currency will fall further. This suggests that investors are starting to act on fears that Britain could vote as early as this summer to leave the EU.'

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According Karen Brady, the figure head of In group, ex-GF of UK premier cr.p porn merchant, has said:

If the UK leaves then the UK will struggle to recruit footballers.

I think we should stay in and reform but ... WTF, is that the best they can do? Its like the Outs are funding the In campaign to sabotage it.

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I think the immigration crisis could be crucial in swaying opinion towards an out vote. Greece has more or less been threatened with being ring fenced for not doing Merkel's dirty work, and turning itself into a giant holding camp for the millions that Merkel invited in.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/12126279/Is-Greece-about-to-be-martyred-again-by-the-EU.html

If they go ahead and re-introduce border controls between Greece and the rest of Schengen then it will have minimal effect on the numbers flooding into Greece from Turkey.

What it will do is overwhelm Greece, and probably trigger all out riots along it's borders with the rest of the EU as they try to break out towards Germany. A substantial number of the immigrants will get nasty quickly if their progress is impeded. And we could be talking hundreds of thousands of fighting age blokes yelling about Allan's snack bar, etc.

Footage of this on TV will be extremely damaging for Merkel and Cameron.

Do you really believe they'd showed such footage on TV? Perhaps a 5 second clip buried at the end of the broadcast, but it will all be smiling children and teddy bears otherwise.

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Well, this brexit leaves me confused....

No arguments are being put forward by the `in` crowd at all.

Surely thoughout British history we`ve continually had to make or break (and then re-make or re-break) alliances . This is no different.

How many time have we fallen out with the French ? The Germans ? The Japanese ? (ww1 on the same side) The USA? (burned the Whitehouse) China ? As I said, form an alliance ...fall out....kiss and make up.....then fall out again.

Human progress is about all this...even if we appear to be going backwards at least for a while.

I put it to you that Cameron, Blair, major, the 1% and TPTB are not fit for purpose.

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According Karen Brady, the figure head of In group, ex-GF of UK premier cr.p porn merchant, has said:

If the UK leaves then the UK will struggle to recruit footballers.

I think we should stay in and reform but ... WTF, is that the best they can do? Its like the Outs are funding the In campaign to sabotage it.

"If the UK leaves then the UK will struggle to recruit footballers."

A renaissance in UK footie and she thinks it's a disadvantage - what's she got against UK footie.

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I wonder why the EU does not take the UK stance over refugees & migrants. Ref/Mig. applications to live in EU countries controlled from the camps around Syria only. Migrants & refugees already on route without 'authorisation' would be returned to those camps or possibly first country of entry.

I thought there was a war going on in Syria? You can't send them back to a war zone, a camp in Syria will only be a magnet for ISIS.

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