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No Interest Rate Rise Until 2020: Yippee!

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The sarcasm is getting tiring actually....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-3637893/No-rate-rise-2020-Global-uncertainty-means-misery-savers-Carney-set-issue-new-Brexit-warning.html

Interest rates in Britain will not rise until the middle of 2020, according to investors.

Rates have been frozen at an all-time low of 0.5 per cent since March 2009 when the UK was in the depths of recession.

But projections on financial markets now suggest rates will not reach 0.75 per cent until May 2020 – resulting in more than a decade of record low borrowing costs.

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so 7 years of near zero interest rates and QE have not worked - except to pump up a further housing bubble

so lets keep it going for another 4 years and expect a differant result - insanity :o

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so 7 years of near zero interest rates and QE have not worked - except to pump up a further housing bubble

so lets keep it going for another 4 years and expect a differant result - insanity :o

It's merely keeping the life support system on. ZombieEconomiesRUs.

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If the referendum comes back with a "leave" vote, there'll be a sovereign debt question mark - and I can't see it being possible to keep rates low. Any promises or forecasts that run beyond 10 days time are also betting on a "stay" vote.

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Of course the UK will vote to Remain. ZIRP forever. Zombie economy forever. Nothing will change. Even if we vote to Leave, something will be contrived to actually prevent the UK from leaving.

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If the referendum comes back with a "leave" vote, there'll be a sovereign debt question mark - and I can't see it being possible to keep rates low. Any promises or forecasts that run beyond 10 days time are also betting on a "stay" vote.

Unless of course the idiots want to try and inflate their way out of the debt problem, IRs might even go to zero or negative.

There is another problem, if there is a brexit and Cameron goes and is replaced by Johnson the temptation might be there to pull out all of the stops to prove the "scare stories" wrong - in particular the economic stuff (heroically saving the economy by averting a HPC a la Crash Gordon - Saviour of the Universe). So interest rate cuts and more QE might easily be order of the day. Trouble is if there is a bremain vote Osborne will try the same Saviour of the Universe trick as well to avert a HPC, because a HPC could damage his leadership chances even though he has gotten his excuse in very early.

As the French might say plus ça change

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so 7 years of near zero interest rates and QE have not worked - except to pump up a further housing bubble

so lets keep it going for another 4 years and expect a differant result - insanity :o

Insanity...not for the rich/establishment....f###### criminals

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Of course the UK will vote to Remain. ZIRP forever. Zombie economy forever. Nothing will change. Even if we vote to Leave, something will be contrived to actually prevent the UK from leaving.

I have got to the point with everything I've learned over the past year, I doubt the votes are even counted.

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I have got to the point with everything I've learned over the past year, I doubt the votes are even counted.

Yes, I agree. This is the reason the TV graphics at election time have become so wild and crazy - to keep the masses distracted while the PTB have a cuppa and decide by how much they are going to make it look like their vote won. I'm looking at my options for leaving the UK, but unfortunately most other countries have been graced with 'western democracy' or are hosting a western proxy war. I've been considering Bhutan (a GDP measured in happiness!), but they have harsh visa requirements!

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Of course the UK will vote to Remain. ZIRP forever. Zombie economy forever. Nothing will change. Even if we vote to Leave, something will be contrived to actually prevent the UK from leaving.

+1

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I have got to the point with everything I've learned over the past year, I doubt the votes are even counted.

I don't even vote - it only encourages them.

Yes, I agree. This is the reason the TV graphics at election time have become so wild and crazy - to keep the masses distracted while the PTB have a cuppa and decide by how much they are going to make it look like their vote won. I'm looking at my options for leaving the UK, but unfortunately most other countries have been graced with 'western democracy' or are hosting a western proxy war. I've been considering Bhutan (a GDP measured in happiness!), but they have harsh visa requirements!

More to Bhutan than meets the eye apparently. A friend spent a year there. Apparently, you are deemed happy if you have a fridge. I guess the UK must be ecstatic!

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Sterling will almost certainly lose it's reserve currency status on Brexit so IRs will have to rise.

I suspect Boris will have to both cut spending and reduce taxes at the same time. Fortunately he can prop up the economy with a new airport in the Thames estuary.

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Sterling will almost certainly lose it's reserve currency status on Brexit so IRs will have to rise.

I suspect Boris will have to both cut spending and reduce taxes at the same time. Fortunately he can prop up the economy with a new airport in the Thames estuary.

Wind the clock back to the credit crunch, how many people here predicted IR at 0.5% for potentially over a decade and QE on an unprecedented scale? How many people predicted the various HTB schemes?

I'd say the safest bet for IR direction is the same or down, as much as I want them to go up I don't see that happening. Didn't one of the brexit politicians recently say what's bad about a weak pound?

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If we get ripped out the currency will collapse, so IRs might be raised to defend it - but at the same time, the general economy will collapse, so IRs might be pushed well-negative in an effort to get people spending, since the cost of everything is going to skyrocket.

Either way, if the treasonous separatists get their way, we're in for some hell.

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If we get ripped out the currency will collapse, so IRs might be raised to defend it - but at the same time, the general economy will collapse, so IRs might be pushed well-negative in an effort to get people spending, since the cost of everything is going to skyrocket.

Either way, if the treasonous separatists get their way, we're in for some hell.

If the cost of everything sky rockets everyone will stop buying, most people are on the edge anyhow, so prices will collapse again.

Life is always much more complicated than a post on a website will have you believe.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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"Mr Market" consistently wrong

Cant see a Tory government surviving that outcome. Cameron/Osborne warning theyll slash pensions & savers getting spanked into the next decade. Thats their core voters theyre sh1tting on.

RBS Economics @RBS_Economics

Market expectations for Bank Rate. From on average one expected rise per year to just one expected rise.

Ck5vgmCWUAAuaEr.jpg
Edited by R K

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If we get ripped out the currency will collapse, so IRs might be raised to defend it - but at the same time, the general economy will collapse, so IRs might be pushed well-negative in an effort to get people spending, since the cost of everything is going to skyrocket.

Either way, if the treasonous separatists get their way, we're in for some hell.

Funny how Bremainers have nothing good to say about the EU, they only have scare stories about leaving it.

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Sterling will almost certainly lose it's reserve currency status on Brexit so IRs will have to rise.

Too funny. :lol:

Anyhoo... once again... ZIRP is deflationary. NIRP is superdeflationary

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It's all building up to a perfect storm in 2020/21. S24 changes in full effect, end of HTB and a potential IR rise. What's there not to like? :)

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so mkt says rise in 2020. in other words it will not be soon. will keep getting pushed back as we go to -ve Base. Bring it on

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By which point prices will be up another 40% making even a 50% fall no real benefit to HPC.

The bigger they are, the harder they fall.

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There's no strong reason for thinking there will be an interest rate rise for the foreseeable. We are in a secular deflationary environment; a combination of peak debt, low demand, we're on the cusp of a recession, deflationary automation - hence a liquidity trap. No one knows how to reinflate the developed economies, anyone who says otherwise is a liar.

I'd give up on expecting the inflation cavalry to save house prices.

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