Estimate The Size And Scope Of The Hpc

[Venger]

It's always interesting to read views more bearish than my own, or that I would dare to post on forum, although I agree with.

'needs to fall 40-60 % in Southern England' / 'I believe a £250,000 property should be priced at £75,000-£85,000 (tops) if the UK wants a true economic recovery' / 'BTLer sell of and rents collapse same time.'

(All the hpi forever voters lol - I'm sure I go down well with them).

It won't happen until you think it can't happen.

When it happens it'll go lower than you thought possible.

Edit to add: and you won't be able to get a mortgage either, so if you're planning on buying it'll be cash only so get saving

I think I'm a step beyond for even though I want a house, I don't have any particular house lust at all. All the dream home bling windows magazine big smiles kitchen, extensions culture leaves me cold. Although that's not to say I won't put a nice kitchen into small house. Just want something simple/small/enough. Japan microhouse, a patch of garden, would be fine. Not a statement house at all. A house is just mostly safe shelter for family for me.

When the cultural view of houses as investments and house financialisation money runs out, then reverts back to view of a house being primarily as shelter for one to raise a family, settle down with for a time (or forever)... come back to at end of day... and then when back at home, not having to answer up to that many people along the way for that home. Answer up = meet big mortgage repayments on huge mortgage to pay down (so more money to spend on family and in economy) - or to BTL landlords and all that uncertainty.

A smart barrister posted this below on a forum some time ago, and I put it in a Word file to refer to in the future.
-----

"An Englishman's home is his castle"

The idea was first stated in Elizabeth I's reign, in a case called Sendil's Case (1585) 7 Co Rep 6a.


And 20 years later comes this phrase

The house of every one is to him as his castle and fortress, as well for his defence against injury and violence, as for his repose.

It's from Semayne's case (1604) 5 Co Rep 91a.

Or, as the Earl of Chatham put it in the next century:

The poorest man may in his cottage bid defiance to all the forces of the Crown. It may be frail – its roof may shake – the wind may blow through it – the storm may enter – the rain may enter – but the King of England cannot enter – all his force dares not cross the threshold of the ruined tenement.

[Venger]

This is Norwich not London as I type there are 4 jobs advertised over 60,000£ locally (80 under 30k) one of which is a contracts manager (75K) the other is a dentist (70-90k) the other two are day rate posts no full time.

Good read. Fixed your RM link.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-59770337.html

Edited June 12, 2016 by Venger

[Killer Bunny]

Assuming we are #turningjapanese it will be steps down over 10-20 years. Each rally to lower highs then plunges to lower lows.

[Killer Bunny]

This thing took three decades to build and will take decades of recession or near-recession to unwind. If we're lucky. The alternative is re-run of the 1930s.

Amazing chart, thx for posting

[Fromage Frais]

As I have posted on here in 2011 I stretched to buy a house for 300k but failed (owner took off market rather than sell under 330k) that was a 4 bed now there is a nice 3 bed for sale in the same area... 450-465k SSTC

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-59770337.html

So assuming this completes a 4 bed is worth approx 500,000£ a 40% crash will just take us back in my area to 2011 and to be honest they felt expensive then!

This is Norwich not London as I type there are 4 jobs advertised over 60,000£ locally (80 under 30k) one of which is a contracts manager (75K) the other is a dentist (70-90k) the other two are day rate posts no full time.

That house above is on a nice road but it's not the best I walked with my daughter for an hour in the sunshine around South Norwich.

Newmarket Road, Mount pleasant, Albemarle Road, Christchurch Road, Eaton Road, Bankhurst Road, limetree road etc etc on top of this you also have Eaton/Cringleford/colney lane/unthank road.

In those roads the houses are bigger and better, hundreds and hundreds of them all presumably worth 500-800,000+ which them seem to be (but top out at 1/1.3 million strangely*).

I earn in the ballpark of a dentist if all goes well...... but in this market I am a utter peasant not even close any more.

So in essence there are 233 3 bed properties over £300,000 in Norwich listed on rightmove and 2 full time advertised jobs over 60k the best paid being the dentist one 4.75 x 90k = 427,000 ........they cannot buy that 3 bed either.

As others have said it must be equity from other places (london) as there are no jobs which will allow you to buy houses at these prices in such volumes. Also as the prices top out* there is no demand from ultra rich folk so it must be london ordinary joes escaping.

To return to normality I would feel these prices need to fall 50-60% as then the highest paid would have a nice house and the average joe on 20-30k would be able to have a decent enough place.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-60003770.html

Kill me now

£495-£510,000 for a 140m2 3 bed fixer upper........in norwich

[FreeFall]

Although the house prices are insane, your analysis suggests that a dentist on 90k+ would be a first time buyer and not have built any equity over the years. Also assumes that they are the sole income in the household. 4 bed detached houses aren't typically ftb properties though...and recognition of multiples of joint incomes show why these prices are sticking (at least for now).