iamnumerate Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Because the standard of living in NW England and SE England is very similar as are wages, hence millions do not move all at once. Too add millions of people from Northern England don't move south to work in minimum wage paying jobs which mean the state has to house, educate and pay billions more in social security benefits. I know 2 people who came from to London one from Sheffield one from Spain. The Spanish one got a plum council flat the Sheffield one did not. I have known immigrants from all other the world who have got council flats in London but in the last 20 years a northerner? You would be better off playing the lottery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 You could say the same about the "sheer number" of Brummies in London right now. It's bonkers. If we have a low productivity economy (thanks, Tax Credit Brown), you don't cure it by isolationism and putting up barriers. Currently the workers are coming to the jobs (standfast benefit junkies[1]). Post Brexit, the jobs will move to the workers. [1] This is a problem of the daft benefits system. Not of EU membership. We have lots of benefit seekers coming here as well. Also how will hand car washing jobs move abroad? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 You could say the same about the "sheer number" of Brummies in London right now. It's bonkers. If we have a low productivity economy (thanks, Tax Credit Brown), you don't cure it by isolationism and putting up barriers. Currently the workers are coming to the jobs (standfast benefit junkies[1]). Post Brexit, the jobs will move to the workers. [1] This is a problem of the daft benefits system. Not of EU membership. People generally accept and are quite happy that others with the same passport as themselves may move around the country picking and choosing jobs. What annoys them is when their Government - that is meant to look after their 'best interests' - opens the borders for anyone out of 500 million people from numerous other countries to come and do the same. And all in the name of GDP growth - which means ****** all to the average person. Anyone who isn't deranged would choose to live in a country that had negative GDP - but a country where they could get a house for a decent price, have no trouble putting their kids in school and be seen by their doctor within a day - against the opposite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
long time lurking Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 You could say the same about the "sheer number" of Brummies in London right now. It's bonkers. If we have a low productivity economy (thanks, Tax Credit Brown), you don't cure it by isolationism and putting up barriers. Currently the workers are coming to the jobs (standfast benefit junkies[1]). Post Brexit, the jobs will move to the workers. [1] This is a problem of the daft benefits system. Not of EU membership. So i`m going to have to get on a plane to do my shopping at Lidl tesco aldi morrisons etc ,all the east coast farmers are going to take their land elsewhere ? but i would agree the benefits system is something that makes what would not be a viable option in some cases become a lucrative one but why should we penalise the people native to this country to solve a problem which is originating from other countries problems Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katchytitle Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 The betting markets put their money where their mouth is, and they say there is no way a Brexit is going to happen. No matter the media stir up to sell eyeballs and newspapers. I wish it was different but people don't like change and when pushed they don't know anything and trust "leaders" to tell them what to do like sheep. The markets were right about the general election (the pollsters were wrong), they were right about Scottish referendum too....hope they're wrong this time but something crazy would have to happen to change these odds. http://politicalodds.bet/eu-referendum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 The betting markets put their money where their mouth is, and they say there is no way a Brexit is going to happen. No matter the media stir up to sell eyeballs and newspapers. I wish it was different but people don't like change and when pushed they don't know anything and trust "leaders" to tell them what to do like sheep. The markets were right about the general election (the pollsters were wrong), they were right about Scottish referendum too....hope they're wrong this time but something crazy would have to happen to change these odds. http://politicalodds.bet/eu-referendum As already mentioned in off topic by some folk in the know on these things- the odds are based on where the money is rather than a prediction. And the odds on exit have shortened a lot in the last few weeks. As for their recent political 'predictions' ? >Corbyn >Trump >Tory majority All totally 'unexpected'. I think Brexit will happen. There really does seem to be a massive momentum of folk who have just had enough and want to do something about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shindigger Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Wage/price controls is a whole other topic! But, yeah, if we Brexit the minimum wage will come under a *lot* of pressure. That nice Mr Rose said wages would rise after Brexit. Has anyone seen him lately? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shindigger Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 People generally accept and are quite happy that others with the same passport as themselves may move around the country picking and choosing jobs. What annoys them is when their Government - that is meant to look after their 'best interests' - opens the borders for anyone out of 500 million people from numerous other countries to come and do the same. And all in the name of GDP growth - which means ****** all to the average person. Anyone who isn't deranged would choose to live in a country that had negative GDP - but a country where they could get a house for a decent price, have no trouble putting their kids in school and be seen by their doctor within a day - against the opposite. Im still waiting for one of the leave team to mention that George is printing the GDP, but none of them seem to want to go there. Funny that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digsby Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 (edited) The betting markets put their money where their mouth is, and they say there is no way a Brexit is going to happen. No matter the media stir up to sell eyeballs and newspapers. I wish it was different but people don't like change and when pushed they don't know anything and trust "leaders" to tell them what to do like sheep. The markets were right about the general election (the pollsters were wrong), they were right about Scottish referendum too....hope they're wrong this time but something crazy would have to happen to change these odds. http://politicalodds.bet/eu-referendum Let's play a game: I give you two pieces of information, and you tell me which way I'll be voting.1. If I were a betting man, I'd bet on remain. 2. If I were polled, I'd answer "remain". Like Maths, you're only right if you can tell me why you're right... Edited June 10, 2016 by Digsby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 The betting markets put their money where their mouth is, and they say there is no way a Brexit is going to happen. No matter the media stir up to sell eyeballs and newspapers. I wish it was different but people don't like change and when pushed they don't know anything and trust "leaders" to tell them what to do like sheep. The markets were right about the general election (the pollsters were wrong), they were right about Scottish referendum too....hope they're wrong this time but something crazy would have to happen to change these odds. http://politicalodds.bet/eu-referendum Do you understand betting? 74% Remain and 26% out is about 1/3 and 3/1 so if the vote took place 4 times, 3 would be Remain but 1 out. That is not equivalent to a betting market "no way". A "no way" would be much shorter odds. Incidentally at the general election the odds for the Tories securing a majority were the same as Out but they got one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katchytitle Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 (edited) Do you understand betting? 74% Remain and 26% out is about 1/3 and 3/1 so if the vote took place 4 times, 3 would be Remain but 1 out. That is not equivalent to a betting market "no way". A "no way" would be much shorter odds. Incidentally at the general election the odds for the Tories securing a majority were the same as Out but they got one. Didn't realise the referendum was taking place 3 times - but I get your point. It isn't hopeless, but the odds for the conservative majority were much higher at this time (a month-ish before). They were already rising 3 months before..on spreadbetting sites. The pollsters were all wrong because the people that paid them were newspapers that wanted to write stories about a close race.But stranger things have happened. I just hope people realise that the desperate charade from politically affiliated firms is just to keep the status quo and pigs at their troughs rather than to improve people's lives. http://www.may2015.com/featured/general-election-odds/ Edited June 10, 2016 by katchytitle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
200p Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 (edited) Hmm pollsters and bookies have got it all wrong lately. Jeremy Corbin - they got wrong http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/599228/Labour-leadership-Paddy-Power-pays-out-Jeremy-Corbyn-win-bets-early Tory Government Majority - they got wrong http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11593973/Pensioner-who-placed-30000-bet-on-Tory-majority-is-single-biggest-election-winner.html Leicester City winning Premier League 5000-1 https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/may/02/bookmakers-record-payout-leicester-city-win-premier-league --- They are possibility going to get it wrong with Brexit and Trump..... Edited June 10, 2016 by 200p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granit Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 That top chart shows likely largest party, you could get 10/1 on a con majority the day before the election. Betting markets are a better predictor than polls and much better than pundits but they're still not great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 (edited) Didn't realise the referendum was taking place 3 times - but I get your point. It isn't hopeless, but the odds for the conservative majority were much higher at this time (a month-ish before). They were already rising 3 months before..on spreadbetting sites. The pollsters were all wrong because the people that paid them were newspapers that wanted to write stories about a close race. http://www.may2015.com/featured/general-election-odds/ I was actually using 4 times to demonstrate that the odds are not a "no way". Plus I was being generous about the Tory odds closer to the time it was 87.5% to 12.5% or 1/7 to 7/1* a majority but the outsider came in. That would have been an absolutely utterly definitely "no way" to you given your interpretation of 1/3 * edit, for proof see 200p's link! Edited June 10, 2016 by Democorruptcy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ManVsRecession Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 (edited) As already mentioned in off topic by some folk in the know on these things- the odds are based on where the money is rather than a prediction. And the odds on exit have shortened a lot in the last few weeks. Agree. The other thing is that since this is a binary bet in what a lot of people believe is a close race, the odds should flip quite quickly as opinion shifts. The odds certainly won't mirror the opinion polls.. i.e. 51% remain - 49% stay wouldn't mean betting 51/49 betting odds. They'd more likely be 60/40 or even 70/30 including the spread. It would also be easy for a hedge-fund to distort the odds by placing large bets with all the big bookies. The bookies would then have to offer overly generous Remain odds just to get some bets in on the other side to reduce their risk. 10-20 million or so would probably suffice, and then the hedge fund would aim to profit from a separate play in the currency or bond markets when the "surprise" Brexit win comes in. Edited June 11, 2016 by ManVsRecession Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkkandrew Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Agree. The other thing is that since this is a binary bet in what a lot of people believe is a close race, the odds should flip quite quickly as opinion shifts. The odds certainly won't mirror the opinion polls.. i.e. 51% remain - 49% stay wouldn't mean betting 51/49 betting odds. They'd more likely be 60/40 or even 70/30 including the spread. It would also be easy for a hedge-fund to distort the odds by placing large bets with all the big bookies. The bookies would then have to offer overly generous Remain odds just to get some bets in on the other side to reduce their risk. 10-20 million or so would probably suffice, and then the hedge fund would aim to profit from a separate play in the currency or bond markets when the "surprise" Brexit win comes in. Yes, this is quite an observation, given the contrasting liquidity and funding between punters and some Hedge Funds! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rigged Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 According to Barrats prices will go up due to delays in getting supplies should we leave the EU. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36505736 Meanwhile some of Britain's largest developers have also urged voters to back Remain. House building companies and housing associations, including Barratt Developments and Wates Group, say a vote for Brexit would cause economic uncertainty and damage investment which would make the housing crisis worse. "What any developer requires is confidence and continued support from their financial investors - and those investors need certainty over wider market conditions," the developers wrote in an open letter. "Leaving the EU would also have an impact on the UK's housing supply chain companies, which employ millions of people across the UK. This could disrupt the production and import of the supplies needed for building such as bricks and blocks. This will further delay and add costs on Britain's house builders." The Vote Leave campaign said the scale of immigration from the EU was the cause of much of the pressure on the housing market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Wait a second Osborne told us house prices would fall !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shindigger Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Wait a second, young people have been convinced that's a bad thing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDevil Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 People are twigging that is not longer about money and big business, which is all remain can push. Its about our overcrowded island and quality of life. Its time to close the Blair years free for all. Thats why brexit will win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormymonday_2011 Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 (edited) Hmm pollsters and bookies have got it all wrong lately. Jeremy Corbin - they got wrong http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/599228/Labour-leadership-Paddy-Power-pays-out-Jeremy-Corbyn-win-bets-early Tory Government Majority - they got wrong http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11593973/Pensioner-who-placed-30000-bet-on-Tory-majority-is-single-biggest-election-winner.html Leicester City winning Premier League 5000-1 https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/may/02/bookmakers-record-payout-leicester-city-win-premier-league --- They are possibility going to get it wrong with Brexit and Trump..... If betting markets were truly accurate bookies would make a lot less money than they do Most fixed odds bookmaker want a 'false favourite' that they can lay to get beaten since that is where they make their cash not on 'mug money' punted on rank outsiders which they usually cover in the overround anyway. And despite all the theory most bookmakers dont run completely balanced books on most betting contests Edited June 11, 2016 by stormymonday_2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ah-so Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 The betting markets put their money where their mouth is, and they say there is no way a Brexit is going to happen. No matter the media stir up to sell eyeballs and newspapers. I wish it was different but people don't like change and when pushed they don't know anything and trust "leaders" to tell them what to do like sheep. The markets were right about the general election (the pollsters were wrong), they were right about Scottish referendum too....hope they're wrong this time but something crazy would have to happen to change these odds. http://politicalodds.bet/eu-referendum The Scottish referendum gave the odds of a 55% stay vote as 3/1. The actual result was 55%, so a huge under-estimation from the bookies. The claim that the bookies are always right is something of an urban myth when checked. It is just that they do better than opinion polls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nome Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 If the grey vote really are as influential as they're claimed to be, then based on what I'm seeing in the DM's comments section I reckon a leave vote must be an almost certainty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ah-so Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 Hmm pollsters and bookies have got it all wrong lately. Jeremy Corbin - they got wrong http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/599228/Labour-leadership-Paddy-Power-pays-out-Jeremy-Corbyn-win-bets-early Tory Government Majority - they got wrong http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11593973/Pensioner-who-placed-30000-bet-on-Tory-majority-is-single-biggest-election-winner.html Leicester City winning Premier League 5000-1 https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/may/02/bookmakers-record-payout-leicester-city-win-premier-league --- They are possibility going to get it wrong with Brexit and Trump..... Given how much the bookies must have raked in on those betting events, they probably felt that they got it very right indeed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rigged Posted June 11, 2016 Share Posted June 11, 2016 (edited) If the grey vote really are as influential as they're claimed to be, then based on what I'm seeing in the DM's comments section I reckon a leave vote must be an almost certainty. The majority of working class Labour voters are for leave, i can't think of any groups other than university students, The Scots, Irish and London chattering classes who are for Remain. Edited June 11, 2016 by Rigged Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.