Sheeple Splinter Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Hang on! I thought the tightening ligature on BTL was the TPTB gently deflating the ballon whilst waiting for wages to catch up; or have I misread many of the posts on here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frugal Git Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 I fully accept I was 'wrong' not to buy in the sense that conciously not doing so has taken me markedly off a conventional, 'normal' life. I will now never have many of the things that most people have - a partner, family, 'stability' etc. I've gone from being depressed about it 10 years ago to absolutely embracing it today. More freedom, time and choice then anyone else I know. Less stress than anyone. Time to explote practical, technical and pointlessly obscure skills just for the hell of it. It means I can just now play computer games for a bit, make a proper lunch, go out for a cycle, find somewhere in the shade and go and read a book. I now patiently wait for the macro economic chaos rather than worry about it. Society as a whole has brought it on themselves by buying into the grred. F**k the UK housing market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewig Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 A crash now needs to be 50% in Southern England and more in London i don't think for 1 minute we'll get this as when prices fall 20-30% there is that much boomer wealth out there to jump in and buy. A higher rate of tax on rental property is all that could create the right scenario for houses to be affordable in comparison to wages. 20% or 30% which is it? When prices are 20% and falling hard, do these boomers all jump in because 20% is the figure they've all agreed? or do they wait to 30%? why stop at 30%? Do boomers have some magic ability to catch a falling knife? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frugal Git Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Spend a 1/3 on booze/drugs Spend a 1/3 on loose women. Then squander the rest Makes substantially more sense than buying a house in the south east, certainly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isambard Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 I've voted there will be a crash but there should be an undecided option. Still no idea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheeple Splinter Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 A crash now needs to be 50% in Southern England and more in London i don't think for 1 minute we'll get this as when prices fall 20-30% there is that much boomer wealth out there to jump in and buy. A higher rate of tax on rental property is all that could create the right scenario for houses to be affordable in comparison to wages. Extra stamp duty on 2+ houses and that could easily be tweaked. Has someone spiked the water supplies - real mood change on this thread! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tempus Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 The current housing market has only one plan to keep things going: low interest rates. At the moment, its working. But... Yes, they may tout 40 year mortgages but imagine the cost over the lifetime of something like that if interest rates rise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bora Horza Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 A crash will eventually occur, either in nominal or relative (i.e. inflation takes off) terms. The Government have lowered interests rates from 5% to 0.5%, thrown billions at the housing market via programmes such as HTB, much more at banks via quantitative easing. And still the economy is in the doldrums and after 8 years of 'recovery' the Government is still running an enormous deficit.The longer the market is distorted, the worse the eventual recession is going to be. A mistake I suspect some HPC'ers are making is to effectively put their lives on hold while they wait for a HPC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frugal Git Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Yes, they may tout 40 year mortgages but imagine the cost over the lifetime of something like that if interest rates rise. I imagine that is exactly what bankers are imagining, salivating over the idea of lengthening the revenue stream whilst convincing the dumb masses its to help 'affordability'. I have a grudging respect for those psychopaths and the ease at which they can manipulate the public. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 7, 2016 Author Share Posted June 7, 2016 (edited) Hang on! I thought the tightening ligature on BTL was the TPTB gently deflating the ballon whilst waiting for wages to catch up; or have I misread many of the posts on here? Gently deflation the bubble they have blown....the bubble was pretty much gently deflating and/or about to disappear off a cliff in 2012...the FLS/HTB were brought in. These people WILL not stop. The price rises from 2013 to 2016 have eclipsed ( maybe double ) the insane rises between 1997 and 2007. It's that mad Edited June 7, 2016 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 7, 2016 Author Share Posted June 7, 2016 Extra stamp duty on 2+ houses and that could easily be tweaked. Has someone spiked the water supplies - real mood change on this thread! Just saying it like it is. I personally thought till a month ago this was going to collapse in a heap this summer but now, im not so sure. I am seeing some real crazy sale prices/SSTCs again. The BTLers wont disappear...why would they, people with 5 houses in london might have made £1M-£2M in the last 3 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frugal Git Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 The buy to letters have gone mad round here in the last few months certainly. Almost every house that was sold recently has come back with a 'for let' sign now. I wasn't too suprised with the crappy 2 bed terraces, but was shocked to see two nice detached homes that recently sold have the letting sign too. What I was pleasantly suprised by was the amount they are asking for rent. 3% gross yield (sold for 400k, now on at 1100 per month). Insane! Not to try and comprehend a buy to letter - but whoever bought that would surely have been better off buying two of the 2 beds (sold 180k, renting at 750 pm). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDevil Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 So the question is, what to do with your UK £££'s? Fire it all into the stock market and hope for the best? Im thinking that is the way to go, with QE and NIRP to infinity, the only thing going up is stocks and property prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canbuywontbuy Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Yeah this is what I want too. I spent a decade being careful with money and have enough saved up that, in a sane world, would allow me to buy a nice house outright. Even my Dad said the other week "you have to struggle", as if being a debt slave until you die is noble in some way and I was being unreasonable. ....and the struggle to own a home in the UK is so contrived....based on an artificial market deliberately in place to make people struggle and work hard. We could all be living in affordable homes today - entirely possible with simple and honest capitalism. But NO - because it's vitally important that 1% or 2% of the population become very rich and exploit the rest. Man has genuinely struggled to get to the point we hit in roughly the 50s/60s and man was allowed to enjoy the fruits of progress. Now though - we are back to struggling purely down to artificial hurdles put in the way. We live in the most perverse times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eek Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 The sky is darkest just before the dawn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fully Detached Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 I'm slightly shocked that so many people here aren't seeing the writing is on the wall. We all get negative, but Brexit and the BTL purge, and the Italy/France collapse, the Greek debt crisis. There's so much negative equity to come. Prices are dropping in prime London, the indicator for the rest of the UK. Come on, don't get all negative now. Funny isn't it. The old saying "When the last bear turns bull" seems irrelevant now because the vast majority of people can't afford to turn bull even if they wanted to, so they simply give up instead. So we end up with a market populated by bears and people sitting on the sidelines. I wonder what happens next? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fully Detached Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 I fully accept I was 'wrong' not to buy in the sense that conciously not doing so has taken me markedly off a conventional, 'normal' life. I will now never have many of the things that most people have - a partner, family, 'stability' etc. I've gone from being depressed about it 10 years ago to absolutely embracing it today. More freedom, time and choice then anyone else I know. Less stress than anyone. Time to explote practical, technical and pointlessly obscure skills just for the hell of it. It means I can just now play computer games for a bit, make a proper lunch, go out for a cycle, find somewhere in the shade and go and read a book. I now patiently wait for the macro economic chaos rather than worry about it. Society as a whole has brought it on themselves by buying into the grred. F**k the UK housing market. This. No debt and having savings means that you're already winning at the game of life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheeple Splinter Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Just saying it like it is. I personally thought till a month ago this was going to collapse in a heap this summer but now, im not so sure. I am seeing some real crazy sale prices/SSTCs again. The BTLers wont disappear...why would they, people with 5 houses in london might have made £1M-£2M in the last 3 years. Patience is a virtue and as many posters have stated, data is showing prices are slowing/falling and sentiment, although lagging, is following. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hullabaloo82 Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Yes and no. There will be a 'crash', just not the paradigm shifting systemic shock so many of you are hoping for. After all, there's always a crash, right? That's how this thing works. There'll be a little clearout of the BTL crew, sufficient to let a few prospective young Tories get on the ladder (with help from BOMAD of course) before the next credit boom and house price surge happens in time for the next GE. Already seeing this happen in my area to be honest. How you choose to respond to that is up to you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CunningPlan Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 If any gov't wants to be elected they will need to either reduce house prices or make renting a satisfactory default position once renters have become a large enough demographic. I am quite happy to let them do the latter. (The former would be good but in the medium term I think they will do everything to avoid it) If a LL is getting 3% gross and no capital appreciation then they are the greater fools. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doahh Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 You forget that fact that BTL has been the bottom of the pyramid for years and they're more likely to be selling than buying now. All of those soon to be ex BTLs have to come down to what FTBs can afford under MMR. The nail in the head of that nutshell is particularly attractive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoredByTorque Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 There will be a downturn, but whether you see it as a crash is another thing. Prices won't necessarily go back to 1990/2000/2010 whatever the magic decade is for you. You have to decide what amount of debt you can handle if you want to buy. Everyone told us not to buy our house in a shitty part of London. We did and in hindsight it was the right decision. Prices are very high now but those of you who have held off for 10+ years, you're afraid (rightly or wrongly) of any debt IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 It will end at some point. The question is when. Negative rates and 60+ year mortgages to make the monthly payment affordable can keep everything going for awhile yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andygivenup Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 LibLabCon: One political party, owned by the bankers. +1 Was only discussing this last night. In the final analysis we the people are the problem, until/if we revolt we are stuck with these lunatics, we have no system to get rid of them. Please don't someone say we could vote them out, because we can't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 7, 2016 Author Share Posted June 7, 2016 It will end at some point. The question is when. Negative rates and 60+ year mortgages to make the monthly payment affordable can keep everything going for awhile yet. Cant see there being many people mad enough to buy into that. Still thats a good sginal to GTFO I've voted for LEAVE but expecting a STAY....I'll be booking my flights to spain the next day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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