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TheCountOfNowhere

Is It Time To Admit We Are Just Plain Wrong.

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I think it is time to give up.

Just buy a house. Take on the debt. Or just leave the country.

Cant see any sane price falls now.

The new paradigm price levels supported by our taxes is now baked in.

The rich wont give up their government support.

The poor need/want their free housing equity.

The EAs will just keep asking prices up now regardless.

They can keep this going for decades.

We've been well and truly licked by the bankers and their pupperts.

No one in the country apart from a small minority want lower prices.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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You forget that fact that BTL has been the bottom of the pyramid for years and they're more likely to be selling than buying now. All of those soon to be ex BTLs have to come down to what FTBs can afford under MMR.

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Borrow-to-let DEBTjunkies have been the marginal buyer the past 15 years. Now they've been #purged. They've been propping up every chain pretty much.

Next stop - FTB wages... That means real FTBers, not the 39 year old senior management type FTBs the banks like to base their hilarious affordibility measures on.

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You forget that fact that BTL has been the bottom of the pyramid for years and they're more likely to be selling than buying now. All of those soon to be ex BTLs have to come down to what FTBs can afford under MMR.

But we have HTB now, this will keep prices inflated.

Looks like Osbornes tweet appears he is looking to extend it.

Now he knows that 20% HTB increases tax revenues by 20%, even a fool such as he could figure out what 50% HTB would do...

Edited by GreenDevil

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Wow.

How easy do you think life is supposed to be?

Why not move; elsewhere in the UK or abroad?

Surely money associated with property is not the source of all your woes?

Perhaps you need one of these: http://newsyac.com/2016/04/04/medieval-whip-used-by-self-flagellating-monks-found/

Oh, make no mistake, we're off. Just looking at a 5 bed house with a pool and gardens in a nice area of Spain. There is a better life out there.

After watching insane prices for almost 15 years now it's maybe time to admit TPTB will not let their rich friends asset prices fall. They will throw us all to the bankers before then.

The chancellor is sittong on £4.5M ( IIRC) of property ( god know how much debt ) similar huge amounts for housing minister and I guess David Camoron and 70% of the house of commons.

There is no movement to regulate the bankers.

There is no (real) movement to stop the bubble

There is no movement to build decent family homes

There is no movement to a real recovery in prices.

Just more and more of the same, making this worse and worse.

I can scarcely believe what I have witnessed.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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But we have HTB now, this will keep prices inflated.

Looks like Osbornes tweet appears he is looking to extend it.

Now he knows that 20% HTB increases tax revenues by 20%, even a fool such as he could figure out what 50% HTB would do...

Actual uptake of HTB has been vanishingly small - the reason it raised prices in 2012 was because it raised sentiment.

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"Its different this time", says the groupthink of every bubble ever.

Maybe we are in an era of greater Government involvement in the market, taking increasingly expensive measures to prop up prices. But all this means is that when it does go bang, it will be all the more damaging.

Nobody could have predicted a decade of near-zero IRs and HtB a decade ago; maybe more of this is to come which will continue to keep prices high. But home ownership rates continue to fall and the debt on the shoulders of FTBs continues to rise. Either of these could become a driving force in politics in the coming years.

The large tanker is turning, but it has taken while to happen. The press has started talking about a need for house price falls and boomers are seeing their kids staying at home or locked in private rentals for decades longer than they hoped. People are realising that paying 50%+ of income for housing is harming other parts of the economy.

But the main reason why it will eventually collapse is that it is a bubble. One which has been inflated by every mean at the Government's disposal. And bubbles burst.

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Heard a story the other day about two secondary school teachers in their early 40's who were struggling to buy a semi detached house. Bidding wars happening on old houses that needed the entire plumbing ripped out. People bidding on what is essentially a money pit.

My brother worked his **** off to get a first class degree in Civil Engineering, and now works in that field, but the local wages are shite and he's a long way off being able to afford much.

Heard another story about a couple where one of them is a feckin' Doctor, struggling to afford in the area they wanted.

And this is in Belfast, which is cheaper than the South of England.

Normal people can't afford houses. Many people who, 20 years ago would have been seen as 'doing well' in decent jobs, can't afford houses.

If I lived in the South of England I'd get the feck out of there. Your life is worth more than this.

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No, we weren't wrong. The crash when it happens will involve a total death of the entire financial system involved.

There will have to be global meetings, global reckonings, new forms of money and new underpinnings to world trade. Many of these meetings and discussions are taking place already.

Edited by Errol

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I don't think the country could cope with house prices going down significantly - and I don't think the wealth or investment mindset of the average Briton would allow it either.

This is a very bad position for the UK to have got itself into (the government should be supporting investment in productive industry and innovation, not asset speculation) but it is now baked in and will take a generation or so to eradicate.

Best to think laterally these days - don't be seduced by standard wage type employment. Think of quality of life vs purchase power - better quality of life to be had running a small business from the south of France / Ireland than a larger business in the SE England.

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I'm going to emigrate though I don't really want to. It sounds like an odd sentence to type out, but the way things are going, it's a case of choosing the lesser evil. I love the UK's climate, scenery, people. I hate that the politics of the country has interrupted every area of my life now. Wanting the simple life is now highly highly aspirational (modest home, affordable life on one full-time income) - to the point you have to emigrate if you want it. Even nowadays people always say "what?! you spoilt little sh1t for wanting a modest home on one income so your kids can have a stable upbringing - live in the real world!". Yeah, too much to ask for in the UK. How silly of me. I fu4ked up and bought one too many iPads. I need to "get with the program" and go extremely deep into debt (after losing my life savings) and join the property club. And then sweat for 15 years plus and hope two full time incomes can clear the debts (clue: something will fu3k that up).

Even if we have a crash, big deal. 20% off prices before a recovery will tell everyone that house prices will be unaffordable forever without massively massively going into humungous debt.

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The bubble will burst, the politicians can try & delay the inevitable but cannot stop it. The economy is based on people not realising they're playing a game that isn't worth winning, and more people are starting to realise that. Systems that fail to reward the people in them always fail. If history teaches us one thing - its that nothing lasts for ever.

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Wanting the simple life is now highly highly aspirational (modest home, affordable life on one full-time income) - to the point you have to emigrate if you want it. Even nowadays people always say "what?! you spoilt little sh1t for wanting a modest home on one income so your kids can have a stable upbringing - live in the real world!".

Yeah this is what I want too. I spent a decade being careful with money and have enough saved up that, in a sane world, would allow me to buy a nice house outright.

Even my Dad said the other week "you have to struggle", as if being a debt slave until you die is noble in some way and I was being unreasonable.

Edited by JoeDavola

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This is a very bad position for the UK to have got itself into (the government should be supporting investment in productive industry and innovation, not asset speculation) but it is now baked in and will take a generation or so to eradicate.

So the question is, what to do with your UK £££'s? Fire it all into the stock market and hope for the best?

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Actual uptake of HTB has been vanishingly small - the reason it raised prices in 2012 was because it raised sentiment.

HTB raised sentiment....FLS ( for BTL) fueled the bubble....Lax immigration, foreign speculation and money laundering pumped london to insane levels...a level they are clearly willing to try and sustaiin with HTB40

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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All bubbles burst eventually. We need a major event to occur to limit lending.

China

Brexit

EU Crisis

Black Swan Event

I don't really care what it is but I hope it happens soon. Too many people are taking out massive mortgages over ridiculous time scales and only looking at the affordability of the initial repayment.

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So the question is, what to do with your UK £££'s? Fire it all into the stock market and hope for the best?

Spend a 1/3 on booze/drugs

Spend a 1/3 on loose women.

Then squander the rest

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A crash now needs to be 50% in Southern England and more in London i don't think for 1 minute we'll get this as when prices fall 20-30% there is that much boomer wealth out there to jump in and buy.

A higher rate of tax on rental property is all that could create the right scenario for houses to be affordable in comparison to wages.

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One silver lining is that rents away from centres of incomes have fallen/barely moved in a decade regardless of asset prices.

That is true...relative to rents my money has done very well.

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I'm slightly shocked that so many people here aren't seeing the writing is on the wall. We all get negative, but Brexit and the BTL purge, and the Italy/France collapse, the Greek debt crisis. There's so much negative equity to come. Prices are dropping in prime London, the indicator for the rest of the UK. Come on, don't get all negative now.

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All bubbles burst eventually. We need a major event to occur to limit lending.

China

Brexit

EU Crisis

Black Swan Event

I don't really care what it is but I hope it happens soon. Too many people are taking out massive mortgages over ridiculous time scales and only looking at the affordability of the initial repayment.

Problem with a major event like you mention happening is that it is followed by lower interest rates, more QE and more state intervention.

Hence why i voted for no crash as the state will jump in and help us all again.

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Yeah this is what I want too. I spent a decade being careful with money and have enough saved up that, in a sane world, would allow me to buy a nice house outright.

Even my Dad said the other week "you have to struggle", as if being a debt slave until you die is noble in some way and I was being unreasonable.

How many years of the average wage did your Dad's house cost? How many years of the average wage does it cost now?

Put a sock in it Dad.

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