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Moar Soaring - Halifax Up 0.6% In May

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Brilliant news....looking at the insane asking prices and what is going sold STC it's no surprise.

There really is no sense in any of it anymore.

@bankofengland @AskHalifaxBank Tax payer bailed bank says house prices up again in May 0.6%. Prices insane !!! When will BOE raise rates?

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here's the rub......

Samuel Tombs ‏@samueltombs

Are U.K. house prices near a ceiling? The decline in interest and capital payments as % of FTB's income suggests not

CkVU09RWYAAZms_.jpg

Absolutely f**king crazy situation.

The rich get richer and the young pay for it.

They have them by the ******** for the next 40 years.

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Absolutely f**king crazy situation.

The rich get richer and the young pay for it.

They have them by the ******** for the next 40 years.

As Charles Colson so correctly observed "once you have them by the balls, their hearts & minds will follow" and that's where far too many people find themselves. The way to get ahead in life is to avoid getting into that situation in the first place. The object is to beat the game, not to play the game....

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Errr......didn't the previous data release show a drop of 0.8% ??? Way worse than consensus expectations?

My maths may not be as good as others but..... a 0.6% rise the following month means we are still down on two months ago?

Edited by anonguest

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here's the rub......

Samuel Tombs ‏@samueltombs

Are U.K. house prices near a ceiling? The decline in interest and capital payments as % of FTB's income suggests not

CkVU09RWYAAZms_.jpg

That figure for ratio to earnings is far higher in southern England than in 2007. The stats a skewed by lower prices in N Ireland and stagnant prices in Northern England.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-59845970.html

This little beauty has just come on the market for 270k, last sold for 187k in 2012. Might be kite flying but it wouldn't surprise me to see it sell for 260K.

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Errr......didn't the previous data release show a drop of 0.8% ??? Way worse than consensus expectations?

My maths may not be as good as others but..... a 0.6% rise the following month means we are still down on two months ago?

Correct. There have been erratic swings, mostly cancelling each other out, for the last six months of Halifax data. Signs of very low volume?

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Absolutely f**king crazy situation.

The rich get richer and the young pay for it.

They have them by the ******** for the next 40 years.

Anecdotally, and from a conversation on a forum elsewhere, it would appear that a lot of people don't even think about the actual debt, only the monthly payments. Confusion reigned for a time because "cheaper housing" meant, to them, cheaper monthly payments. The actual debt wasn't just irrelevant, it was unnoticed. Fair enough, I suppose. It's pretty ludicrous to imagine that the average household is going to be able to pay off half a million plus interest, so why bother imagining it?

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here's the rub......

Samuel Tombs ‏@samueltombs

Are U.K. house prices near a ceiling? The decline in interest and capital payments as % of FTB's income suggests not

CkVU09RWYAAZms_.jpg

And yet...

On AlJaBeeba today:

Middle-class 'face savings squeeze'

A third of middle-class families would need to borrow to pay an unexpected bill of £500, according to a new survey.

The YouGov poll for the Times found 31% of ABC1 workers, which includes junior managers and professionals, would struggle to pay a sum of that size.

The figure rises to 46% for manual workers and the unemployed.

Although inflation is currently low, many workers have not had pay rises for years.

The Bank of England said last month that it expected inflation to increase in the second half of the year, which could put more pressure on some households.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36466186

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Correct. There have been erratic swings, mostly cancelling each other out, for the last six months of Halifax data. Signs of very low volume?

I surmise these back and forth, up and down, largely cancelling each other out monthly moves seen in last 6 or so months is indicative of the 'top' that is undoubtedly forming.

Before long we should start to see the monthly declines start to outnumber the rises and, eventually, will come a point where we see no monthly rises at all - just month after month of declines. Probably small declines for the most part, but declines all the same.

Everyone has been assuming that the market will form a perfect easily identifiable, to the month, top.

Markets dont work that way. A market top (or bottom) is not an 'event', it is a process.

Edited by anonguest

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here's the rub......

Samuel Tombs ‏@samueltombs

Are U.K. house prices near a ceiling? The decline in interest and capital payments as % of FTB's income suggests not

CkVU09RWYAAZms_.jpg

I wonder what a similar chart for those renting would look like?

FTBs these days are also not to be confused with FTBs from the days of yore. How old is the average FTBer now and how much further are they along with their career when they buy their first (and possibly only) house.

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Guest BillyNI

I'd like to see this graph for London. Obviously must larger numbers but I wonder if it has a different shape.

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http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-59845970.html

This little beauty has just come on the market for 270k, last sold for 187k in 2012. Might be kite flying but it wouldn't surprise me to see it sell for 260K.

"Offered to the market by motivated vendors"... motivated by pure greed based on that asking price.

Without HTB2 that little beauty would be going for a lot less than in 2012, Gidiot really ought to be hanging from a lamp post for ruining lives.

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here's the rub......

Samuel Tombs @samueltombs

Are U.K. house prices near a ceiling? The decline in interest and capital payments as % of FTB's income suggests not

CkVU09RWYAAZms_.jpg

What you fail to take into account is the FTB measure isn't really a constant, given the average age of a FTB is going up by 1 year pretty much every year (that basically means there are very few FTBs)

What are now FTBs were previously second/third steppers. Completely invalidates this measure, given many FTBs will be in the same house for the next 20 years. It isn't new supply to the ponzi in the way it once was I'm afraid.

Edit: Basically what rnr said a couple of posts up. As you were then...

Edited by thewig

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I surmise these back and forth, up and down, largely cancelling each other out monthly moves seen in last 6 or so months is indicative of the 'top' that is undoubtedly forming.

Before long we should start to see the monthly declines start to outnumber the rises and, eventually, will come a point where we see no monthly rises at all - just month after month of declines. Probably small declines for the most part, but declines all the same.

Everyone has been assuming that the market will form a perfect easily identifiable, to the month, top.

Markets dont work that way. A market top (or bottom) is not an 'event', it is a process.

This year's monthly changes:

Jan +1.7% £212,502

Feb -1.5% £209,334

Mar +2.2% £213,945

Apr -0.8% £212,204

May +0.6% £213,472

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Absolutely f**king crazy situation.

The rich get richer and the young pay for it.

They have them by the ******** for the next 40 years.

How so? Theyre only paying 18% of earnings. Mortgages and the cost of housing has rarely been cheaper.

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Help to buy must be a huge distortion

I'd like to see this graph for London. Obviously must larger numbers but I wonder if it has a different shape.

but this is the issue

Nationwide:

KScHBIwl.png

London is pretty much at the 2007 peak, although way below the 90%(!!) in 1989

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