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bear.getting.old

The £ Will Fall 20% If The Uk Leaves The Eu Say Goldman Sachs. I'd Say The Opposite

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I haven't heard any of the brexit camp making this case, not even Farage. Gove could have done last night on Sky debate when challenged about the £ falling but he missed a trick. He also failed to point out that falling house prices are nothing to do with a brexit or not, instead saying that they will fall in some areas.

As a HPCer this is the logical conclustion I've come to:

The scaremongering comments from the likes of Goldman Sachs saying that Sterling could fall by up to 20% against the Euro if Britain votes to leave the EU, are very misleading and incorrect. On the contrary - if the UK leaves the EU, it will lead ultimately to the EU collapsing without the UKs payments of £350 million a week and as other countries also start to leave the union. This will have dire effect on the value of the euro currency, it will more like 2 euro to the £ by then. Countries will return to their old currencies when the EU collapses, eg Lira etc. These old currencies are likely to be devalued by at least 20% compared to the current Euro value. People will queuing like mad to get their money out of the euro banks, there will be a run on the euro for sure. These commentators have not considered this scenerio. Therefore if one is waiting to change their £ into Euros it would be best to wait until the collapse of the EU. The £ sterling by then will be a reserve currency against the former EU countries currencies. If however the UK does not vote to leave the EU, then the £ will still rise some as the uncertainty will have vanished. Either way, if you can afford to, waiting until after the referendum is over is the best idea. If you really need to exchange £ to Euros now, take a punt....

If you want to buy £ with euro, buy some while the euro is still worth something...


Do you agree or disagree with me?

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All i know is it`s increasingly looking like a Brexit is more of a risk to the stability of the EU than it is to the UK ,if we go my money is on anther leaving within the next 18 months ,the Dutch are looking like the likely candidates

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You could argue that a rise in sterling would be equally damaging, but either way nobody really knows - quite often with these things the market has already priced in the change and could move in the opposite direction to what you would expect.

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If we stay part of the EEA trading area, then we will still pay contributions, so your logic is flawed.

I agree though that no one can say for sure what will happen as regards currency rates, but that has always been the case.

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They should say they don't know what house prices or the forex rates will be for a brexit then put the question back and ask them do they know what they will be in 5 years if we vote remain?

House price increase is just the old stealing from the young anyway.

Edited by DEATH

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You could argue that a rise in sterling would be equally damaging, but either way nobody really knows - quite often with these things the market has already priced in the change and could move in the opposite direction to what you would expect.

Considering everyone has been playing how low can you go i think that is more than a fair assessment ,but no side want to talk about that particular elephant

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I hope it falls 20%. Need to move some money back to the UK before November, and a 20% rise in the amount I get would be very nice :)

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