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The "undecided" Will Vote Remain


Drummer
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Just having a look at the Scottish Referendum's wiki page.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014

The polling nearer the time was generally quite accurate of the end result, despite the small sample sizes. One thing it does show, is that the undecided, on the day of the actual vote, went for the status quo.

Whilst Vote Leave is currently on par with Remain; there are around 10% of voters currently undecided. That's a big gap to fill IMO and Vote Leave is rightly the outsider in this two horse race as things stand.

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Was there a reason, other than apathy, for the low 1999 turnout?

Can't really remember it but looking at wikipedia and reading between the lines...

The European Parliament Election, 1999 was the United Kingdom's part of the European Parliament election 1999. It was held on 10 June 1999. Following the European Parliamentary Elections Act 1999 it was the first European election to be held in the United Kingdom where the whole country used a system of proportional representation. In total, 87 Members of the European Parliament were elected from the United Kingdom.
....
Turnout was 24%, the lowest of any member state in the 1999 election where the EU average was 49.51%. It was also the lowest of any European election in the United Kingdom, and the lowest of any member state until the 2009 election.[1]

Could it be the main parties (con/lab) didn't campaign very hard because they knew the first-past-the-post game was over?

The Conservatives doubled the number of seats from the last European election. Labour saw their 62 seats reduced to just 29. It was the first European Parliament election to be held since the change of United Kingdom government from Conservative to Labour two years earlier. The Liberal Democrats saw their number of seats increase to 10 from just 2 in the previous election. The UK Independence Party, Green Party and Plaid Cymru won their first ever seats in the European Parliament. These changes are largely due to the move to proportional representation from first-past-the-post.[2]

Edited by XswampyX
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Can't really remember it but looking at wikipedia and reading between the lines...

Could it be the main parties (con/lab) didn't campaign very hard because they knew the first-past-the-post game was over?

Thanks for that. I did a bit of digging and found an article that shows how little has changed in 17 years! Low turnout may have been due to 'complex' first proportional vote in the UK, voter fatigue due to local elections previous month or plain old apathy.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/events/euros_99/news/368908.stm

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It`s anyone's guess

The 'undecided' in the Scottish referendum were people who planned and did vote Stay, but didnt want to go around telling people about it in case they were thought of as somehow un-Scottish

The 'undecided' in the EU referendum are people who plan to vote Leave, but don't want to go around telling people about it in case they are thought of as somehow a bit racist

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A couple of months ago I would have agreed with you 100% but I think the possibility of shy-remainers en masse is a real possibility now. People (at least in my recent sample) are reticent about coming out in favour of remain.

Either that or not many outside London and the public sector is voting to remain.

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