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VacantPossession

Family Bust Up...over House Prices

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I'm sure I'm not the only one, and wonder how many other bears here have had this sort of thing...or will do in the following days when families come together for the holiday.

There I was eating an agreeable meal with friends and family last night, and suddenly my nephew announced that his father (previous marriage) told him now was the time to buy his home to live in and for investment. My nephew is 22 and has only just started his first job, for which he is paid the lowly sum of around £19,000 per year.

I told him he was crazy and so was his father. In retrospect this was a hasty thing to do. The supper table almost exploded.....I was hemmed in by around 8 to 1, everyone at the table rounding on me as though I was a subversive idiot. The table was attended by some reasonably intelligent people including my brother who is Chairman of a minor PLC. Without exception they all utterly denied that houses were going to crash and they even refused to acknowledge that prices even slightly down compared to a few months ago.

Every argument I presented: growth forecasts, the fact that HPI was already as high as it could possibly go, the unsold thousands of flats, businesses going to the wall, BTL take up collapsing, 75% of all new mortgages were RE-mortgages, etc etc was met with derision and the usual regurgitation of VI spin. They believe every word uttered in newspapers.

They would not listen. To a man and woman they became angry, upset and agressive. I pointed out that I had more facts at my disposal than Daily Mail headlines. That was it. I was censored, lampooned, shouted at, told I was "out of touch" and "obsessed with unconventional and inaccurate data".

I stuck to my guns. I even showed them the CML figures showing that what my fellow guests claimed as a "rise" in mortgage take up (they saw it on the news) was in fact thousands of people MEW'ing and re-mortgaging to finance profligacy and Christmas.

We finished the argument with my nephew relating that his father had told hm "You could buy and then go abroad and make a profit on the rent." I pointed out to him that I had JUST signed a lease on a tenancy which didn't even give the BTL owner HALF of his mortgage payment. Incredibly, all around the table still insisted that it was a perfectly sound thing to do.

Do tell us if you had similar conversations over the festive season!

VP

Edited by VacantPossession

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Do tell us if you had similar conversations over the festive season!

Actually I'd strongly advise people to avoid the topic at the Xmas dinner table if at all possible. Rather like religion and politics, people tend to have very closed minds on the subject and there really is nothing to gain by discussing it.

Edited by doogie

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I'm sure I'm not the only one, and wonder how many other bears here have had this sort of thing...or will do in the following days when families come together for the holiday.

There I was eating an agreeable meal with friends and family last night, and suddenly my nephew announced that his father (previous marriage) told him now was the time to buy his home to live in and for investment. My nephew is 22 and has only just started his first job, for which he is paid the lowly sum of around £19,000 per year.

I told him he was crazy and so was his father. In retrospect this was a hasty thing to do. The supper table almost exploded.....I was hemmed in by around 8 to 1, everyone at the table rounding on me as though I was a subversive idiot. The table was attended by some reasonably intelligent people including my brother who is Chairman of a minor PLC. Without exception they all utterly denied that houses were going to crash and they even refused to acknowledge that prices even slightly down compared to a few months ago.

Every argument I presented: growth forecasts, the fact that HPI was already as high as it could possibly go, the unsold thousands of flats, businesses going to the wall, BTL take up collapsing, 75% of all new mortgages were RE-mortgages, etc etc was met with derision and the usual regurgitation of VI spin. They believe every word uttered in newspapers.

They would not listen. To a man and woman they became angry, upset and agressive. I pointed out that I had more facts at my disposal than Daily Mail headlines. That was it. I was censored, lampooned, shouted at, told I was "out of touch" and "obsessed with unconventional and inaccurate data".

I stuck to my guns. I even showed them the CML figures showing that what my fellow guests claimed as a "rise" in mortgage take up (they saw it on the news) was in fact thousands of people MEW'ing and re-mortgaging to finance profligacy and Christmas.

We finished the argument with my nephew relating that his father had told hm "You could buy and then go abroad and make a profit on the rent." I pointed out to him that I had JUST signed a lease on a tenancy which didn't even give the BTL owner HALF of his mortgage payment. Incredibly, all around the table still insisted that it was a perfectly sound thing to do.

Do tell us if you had similar conversations over the festive season!

VP

This kind of lunacy might explain why the boom has gone on so long. I remember listening to similar conversations during the dot-com boom where boring old suit was told he was an idiot because he was arguing that there was nothing new in selling things remotely and that most of these dot-com businesses don't make money, so you had to be careful. "You just don't get the new economy, man!" was the response.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

VP, never debate a controversial subject unless you have backup, a life long learning experience in my case. :D

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This kind of lunacy might explain why the boom has gone on so long. I remember listening to similar conversations during the dot-com boom where boring old suit was told he was an idiot because he was arguing that there was nothing new in selling things remotely and that most of these dot-com businesses don't make money, so you had to be careful. "You just don't get the new economy, man!" was the response.

Try to avoid the subject, but if it comes up pointing out that prices MIGHT fall for x y z reasons is perhaps the best policy. If reasonably intelligent people can't entertain the fact that it MIGHT happen then you really should never speak to them again, whether immediate family or not.

If prices are rising at less than wages, and renting is cheaper than buying, then waiting a year or 2 to see what happens might be a good idea. If people cannot see that then there really is no hope.

FF

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Actually I'd strongly advise people to avoid the topic at the Xmas dinner table if at all possible. Rather like religion and politics, people tend to have very closed minds on the subject and there really is nothing to gain by discussing it.

I agree. Being a property bear in the UK carries a stigma matched only by having a psychopathic personality disorder.

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Vacant - if we'd been there you would have had the whole lot of us behind you. We were there in spirit for you.

You're a HPC Gunga Din - a hero worthy of a Kipling story. This has happened to me before and it's wierd isn't it? Apparently rational people who normally can think a thing through, listening to both sides suddenly turn into HPI Fundamentallists.

Hey, if you planted a seed of doubt into that young chaps mind then the sacrifice you made was worth it - if I knew you I'd buy you a pint.

Happy Christmas great mate and chin up.

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I would say keep going, you might save someone from a costly mistake. And if you keep your arguments logical and sound and avoid any offensive remarks then they may just thank you later. And if they dont, so what. Dinner parties are for sitting around and chatting sh*t, so if you want to discuss house prices then go right ahead. It's a free country and it's as good a subject as any.

While we're on the subject of family, my sister was going to buy a BTL terrace in north london back in 2004 during the height of the madness. She was convinced that prices were going to go further and further out of reach and eventually she would not be able to afford anything and her kids would really struggle when they got older and wanted to move away. She had some hard-won savings which amounted to a sizeable deposit and was intent on 'investing it somewhere safe'.

I had a few (sometimes lively) discussions with her and managed to convince her not to buy. She agreed to wait it out and see what would happen. Luckily for me we reached the peak soon after and there were some very bullish pieces appearing here and there which I emailed to her to help my cause. Now she has moved from the bull camp to the 'prices will stagnate but won't go up any further' camp which is a positive development. She also concedes that the type of properties she was considering at the height of the boom have dropped somewhat (10-20k) and that she has earned higher interest on her money so waiting was a good thing to do.

I think she will wait a bit more. She doesn't believe in a 'real crash' but she thinks there's nothing to lose by sitting it out a little longer and beefing up her deposit. She still thinks i'm crazy by predicting a 90's style crash, but at least she removed the blinkers.

I think it's good to spread the word.

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I'm sure I'm not the only one, and wonder how many other bears here have had this sort of thing...or will do in the following days when families come together for the holiday.

There I was eating an agreeable meal with friends and family last night, and suddenly my nephew announced that his father (previous marriage) told him now was the time to buy his home to live in and for investment. My nephew is 22 and has only just started his first job, for which he is paid the lowly sum of around £19,000 per year.

I told him he was crazy and so was his father. In retrospect this was a hasty thing to do. The supper table almost exploded.....I was hemmed in by around 8 to 1, everyone at the table rounding on me as though I was a subversive idiot. The table was attended by some reasonably intelligent people including my brother who is Chairman of a minor PLC. Without exception they all utterly denied that houses were going to crash and they even refused to acknowledge that prices even slightly down compared to a few months ago.

Every argument I presented: growth forecasts, the fact that HPI was already as high as it could possibly go, the unsold thousands of flats, businesses going to the wall, BTL take up collapsing, 75% of all new mortgages were RE-mortgages, etc etc was met with derision and the usual regurgitation of VI spin. They believe every word uttered in newspapers.

They would not listen. To a man and woman they became angry, upset and agressive. I pointed out that I had more facts at my disposal than Daily Mail headlines. That was it. I was censored, lampooned, shouted at, told I was "out of touch" and "obsessed with unconventional and inaccurate data".

I stuck to my guns. I even showed them the CML figures showing that what my fellow guests claimed as a "rise" in mortgage take up (they saw it on the news) was in fact thousands of people MEW'ing and re-mortgaging to finance profligacy and Christmas.

We finished the argument with my nephew relating that his father had told hm "You could buy and then go abroad and make a profit on the rent." I pointed out to him that I had JUST signed a lease on a tenancy which didn't even give the BTL owner HALF of his mortgage payment. Incredibly, all around the table still insisted that it was a perfectly sound thing to do.

Do tell us if you had similar conversations over the festive season!

VP

Yes but was the food good?

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Vacant - if we'd been there you would have had the whole lot of us behind you. We were there in spirit for you.

You're a HPC Gunga Din - a hero worthy of a Kipling story. This has happened to me before and it's wierd isn't it? Apparently rational people who normally can think a thing through, listening to both sides suddenly turn into HPI Fundamentallists.

Hey, if you planted a seed of doubt into that young chaps mind then the sacrifice you made was worth it - if I knew you I'd buy you a pint.

Happy Christmas great mate and chin up.

Cheers, and thanks BlackTuesday. Actually we're all perfectly good friends now....it was just a moment of ugliness.

VP

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I agree. Being a property bear in the UK carries a stigma matched only by having a psychopathic personality disorder.

On considering your post again, it occurs to me that they ARE accusing you of being mentally ill.

You are effectively being accused of having what are known in psychiatry as "overvalued ideas". Quite a low tactic in my opinion.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

suddenly my nephew announced that his father (previous marriage) told him now was the time to buy his home to live in and for investment. My nephew is 22 and has only just started his first job, for which he is paid the lowly sum of around £19,000 per year.

The supper table almost exploded.....I was hemmed in by around 8 to 1, everyone at the table rounding on me as though I was a subversive idiot.

They would not listen. To a man and woman they became angry, upset and agressive. I pointed out that I had more facts at my disposal than Daily Mail headlines. That was it. I was censored, lampooned, shouted at, told I was "out of touch" and "obsessed with unconventional and inaccurate data".

We finished the argument with my nephew relating that his father had told hm "You could buy and then go abroad and make a profit on the rent." I pointed out to him that I had JUST signed a lease on a tenancy which didn't even give the BTL owner HALF of his mortgage payment. Incredibly, all around the table still insisted that it was a perfectly sound thing to do.

**** 'em. I'm sorry but your nephew is a grown man. If he won't listen to any alternative views then that's his look out. No sympathy. None at all. **** 'em, **** 'em all I say! I hope they all end up selling The Big Issue in the pouring rain and die of feckin pneumonia.

A merry Christmas by the way! :)

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**** 'em. I'm sorry but your nephew is a grown man. If he won't listen to any alternative views then that's his look out. No sympathy. None at all. **** 'em, **** 'em all I say! I hope they all end up selling The Big Issue in the pouring rain and die of feckin pneumonia.

A merry Christmas by the way! :)

Steady on Bart.....forgive them for they know not what they do.

VP

Edited by VacantPossession

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It never occured to you that they were right and you were wrong?

Did you not reconsider your position through the argument.

If not, why did you expect them to do likewise.

Shows an incredibly naive approach imo.

Probably why your brother is a successful industrialist and you're a renting no mark.

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I'm sure I'm not the only one, and wonder how many other bears here have had this sort of thing...or will do in the following days when families come together for the holiday.

There I was eating an agreeable meal with friends and family last night, and suddenly my nephew announced that his father (previous marriage) told him now was the time to buy his home to live in and for investment. My nephew is 22 and has only just started his first job, for which he is paid the lowly sum of around £19,000 per year.

I told him he was crazy and so was his father. In retrospect this was a hasty thing to do. The supper table almost exploded.....I was hemmed in by around 8 to 1, everyone at the table rounding on me as though I was a subversive idiot. The table was attended by some reasonably intelligent people including my brother who is Chairman of a minor PLC. Without exception they all utterly denied that houses were going to crash and they even refused to acknowledge that prices even slightly down compared to a few months ago.

Every argument I presented: growth forecasts, the fact that HPI was already as high as it could possibly go, the unsold thousands of flats, businesses going to the wall, BTL take up collapsing, 75% of all new mortgages were RE-mortgages, etc etc was met with derision and the usual regurgitation of VI spin. They believe every word uttered in newspapers.

They would not listen. To a man and woman they became angry, upset and agressive. I pointed out that I had more facts at my disposal than Daily Mail headlines. That was it. I was censored, lampooned, shouted at, told I was "out of touch" and "obsessed with unconventional and inaccurate data".

I stuck to my guns. I even showed them the CML figures showing that what my fellow guests claimed as a "rise" in mortgage take up (they saw it on the news) was in fact thousands of people MEW'ing and re-mortgaging to finance profligacy and Christmas.

We finished the argument with my nephew relating that his father had told hm "You could buy and then go abroad and make a profit on the rent." I pointed out to him that I had JUST signed a lease on a tenancy which didn't even give the BTL owner HALF of his mortgage payment. Incredibly, all around the table still insisted that it was a perfectly sound thing to do.

Do tell us if you had similar conversations over the festive season!

VP

Very similar experience about 10 days ago-see Scooter's anger management thread and two offshoots...

:)

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It never occured to you that they were right and you were wrong?

Did you not reconsider your position through the argument.

If not, why did you expect them to do likewise.

Shows an incredibly naive approach imo.

Probably why your brother is a successful industrialist and you're a renting no mark.

Ooh....nasty. Seems like you've never forgiven me for suggesting you apologise to someone you insulted here a while back. That aside and to answer your personally provocative post (as always):

1. My brother hates his job and would rather have mine, and is retiring imminently.

2. I always reconsider positions, but in this case the 8 to 1 argument was lacking in solid facts.

3. I didn't expect anything other than to half consider the points I made.

Merry Christmas to you too.

VP

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Hmm not a great topic to debate at the Xmas dinner table.

Lets face it people have pretty fixed minds on the subject and believe they are an expert cause they either own one or have watched a whole series of Phil and Kirsty.

You're talking about an asset that in a lot of cases is the persons only source of wealth, security, future, investment or piggy bank for raiding. Often people hopes/dreams of comfy retirement or sense of success and esteem are tied up in the illusion of ever rising house prices.

It's not big and it's not clever unless of course you wanted to be the one to be seen to provoke the annual ritual of the family feud.

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Do tell us if you had similar conversations over the festive season!

VP

You need to understand that minority views are always unpopular. Here's an analogy;

Years ago I went organic. Whenever the subject came up I was basically isolated as a bit eccentric. People just could not get thier theads round why I thought a chickens life was worth something so organically reared chickens tended (not always) to enjoy a far better life.

I aslo argued that I was'nt prepared to pollute my body with antibiotics, hormones. growth promoters and a host of other chemicals used in intensive farming since the war.

Some of you ready this will also find my arguments increduluous, but you need to recognise thats exactly how you are viewed by the house buying masses. You cant blame them for trying to protect 'the norm'.

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Lets face it people have pretty fixed minds on the subject

I think this is one of the factors that was underestimated in our various bearish predictions. One reason why there has not been a crash.

The mindset has been fixing and re-inforcing since ~1994, and as everyone agrees this has been the biggest boom ever, so it's to be expected that the mindset will be more fixed than ever before.

This isn't a tanker it's a super-tanker, and will take some huge force to change it's course.

8 versus 1 around a dinner table is like sticking a oar in the water one side of the tanker - it's won't have much traction. If it becomes 7-2, or 6-3, then we get some action. We're all sheeple after all. (present company excepted of course) B)

It's all about sentiment, but it's just not turning. Yet.

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VP,

I've been told by MRS C just to say we haven't found anything we like as yet, thats if aquaintences ask. Actually close freinds and family know why we sold, and non have made comments like.....your mad ....coz their chicken :D;)

Actually I have a mate who has been trying to sell for well over a year with no luck, he put it on the market at 260K, and you know me " I tell it like it is" I said back then, my backside will heal up before you get anywhere near that price. Well he has had two viewings one on the day it went on the market, and it's now down at 240K. Oh and he had the agents around again and they said he should put it on at 220K to attract a buyer. I still think that is 30K over value in todays market. Yep this overpriced market sure looks good to me, and yes the VI's are right there isthe potential for more upside movement,had, ha ha ha.

Understandable that it kicked off as it did, jeez man you were undermining their wealth and status, that's how cockeyed this belief in higher living costs is.

And just maybe their reaction could be explained in the following.

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."

- Mahatma Gandhi (1869-1948

C22

Edited by Catch22

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I say go for it. If you can keep polite and stay on message it plants the seeds that all is not great in the economy. Lots of people see headlines about job losses, high street troubles, house prices rising but don't really understand the interaction between them.

People have the puzzle pieces but don't even know what the jigsaw looks like :(

Once those seeds are planted, some will grow, some won't.

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I have the ultimate antidote to such conversion - unfortunately it involves about 20 minutes probing about why I'm vegan. :rolleyes:

Makes me appreciate though, that my family are fairly open to hearing such views, possibly because it doesn't affect them at all - mostly OO or bought prior to 2000 and no BTL's.

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I was censored, lampooned, shouted at, told I was "out of touch" and "obsessed with unconventional and inaccurate data".

VP

You have family members who come out with sentences like "You're obsessed with unconventional and inaccurate data" at the dinner table??

And I thought my family were strange! ;)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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