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2ndtb83

Bear Food In The Ft

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Published today (paywall) http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8deef4c4-23fa-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d.html#axzz49yGl2YEw

Key points are:

1) RICS reporting the second largest decline in new inquiries since April 2008;

2) Leading to a more pessimistic outlook among surveyors re prices over the next 12 months

3) Far steeper fall in mortgage approvals in April than analysts expected (even accounting for the pre March surge)

4) Potential movers are struggling with a lack of equity due to the various types of assistance buyers received when they entered the market in the past five to seven years, giving rise to 'mortgage zombies'.

All written up in usual sedate FT style but interestingly no rubbishy citations of Brexit etc.

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We just need a Brexit vote now - I fear post remain the market may get a second wind. And following a leave vote Osborne goes - so we might get a more rational Chancellor.

Edited by MARTINX9

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Inquiries declined in April at their second-highest rate since 2008, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

They just can't help themselves can they?

The second-highest rate since 2008.

What has experienced the second-highest rate since 2008?

Well. A decline in inquiries of course!

So actually the lowest rate of inquiries since 2008.

Mumble, fumble, mumble, cough.

Source :- your link.

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You can bring spending forward for a few years.

But then you run out of spending later, so get a double dip.

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All very good to see and predicted on here. inquiries will be dead for the foreseeable future now, prices simply have to fall to the new clearing level which is easily 30% lower

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Will be very interesting to see the mortgage approvals for this month. I would guess it will be even lower and we'll see more headlines.

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Will be very interesting to see the mortgage approvals for this month. I would guess it will be even lower and we'll see more headlines.

BBA data is already out

Down from 43.9k last month to 40.1k.

Bizarrely, expectations were for an increase to 44.8k

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BBA data is already out

Down from 43.9k last month to 40.1k.

Bizarrely, expectations were for an increase to 44.8k

The towns I monitor have seen the following:

1) Purchases by OOO dead sinsce 2002ish.

2) Very low level of transactions.

3) Of the trasnactions, most are made up by 'investors' BTL + holiday homers.

The UK housing market usually needs ~100k transactions/month to keep up prices stable.

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Grumpysod, I can echo your findings. I run a business that, as a side project I guess, tracks consumer spending online. May is usually a strong month with 2 bank holidays but it's about 25% down on 2013 which I would consider the last decent year of consumer spending. Remember that online shopping is supposedly growing yearly. The whole of 2016 so far has been down MoM from the same point last year.

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work in manufacturing heavy industry components across world markets, large parts for shipping and off highway construction.
Bottom fell out of the world last year, and orders have been low since then. Next month orders are worse again currently only 10% above the lowest order level ever (in the crisis 2008) and its getting worse.

Things are getting worse, and this will soon be reflected in the wider economy.

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work in manufacturing heavy industry components across world markets, large parts for shipping and off highway construction.

Bottom fell out of the world last year, and orders have been low since then. Next month orders are worse again currently only 10% above the lowest order level ever (in the crisis 2008) and its getting worse.

Things are getting worse, and this will soon be reflected in the wider economy.

Second this...

"Employed" in the Oil & Gas market, more specifically subsea assets.

Orders literally stopped around 18 months ago (alongside the oil price decline/normalisation, luckily lots of big projects kept the wolf from the door, but as construction/completion finishes on those there's nothing else coming in behind.

Can't be much longer until someone realises that the emperor is utterly b@llock naked.

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They just can't help themselves can they?

The second-highest rate since 2008.

What has experienced the second-highest rate since 2008?

Well. A decline in inquiries of course!

So actually the lowest rate of inquiries since 2008.

Elementary logic fail in the last line of that.

Though it begs the question, when was the highest rate since 2008?

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Fingers crossed.

My head is telling me that this bubble has been blown to limits that defy logical belief and calculation and has been running on fumes since probably the financial crisis, my heart though still has doubts, but something deep inside me still has the faith that there is not that much longer to wait.

Well put.

Believe your head...not your heart

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