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Van

Ftse Caresses 5600

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And with fundamentals in place, FTSE's main components, oil, banks & telecoms, will be enough to propel it past 6000 next year IMHO. Can we reach 6500 in 2006? Don't bet against it.. Most people are still skeptical of stocks, meaning that sentiment can still improve markedly, and in addition, many funds will continue moving out of fixed income and back into equities through 2006 and beyond.

Edited by Van

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Yes but with banks running dry where will the money come from to gamble on the FTSE.

Not from the UK i don't think

The only thing thats going up is your taxes and you can take that to the bank

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And with fundamentals in place, FTSE's main components, oil, banks & telecoms, will be enough to propel it past 6000 next year IMHO. Can we reach 6500 in 2006? Don't bet against it.. Most people are still skeptical of stocks, meaning that sentiment can still improve markedly, and in addition, many funds will continue moving out of fixed income and back into equities through 2006 and beyond.

I think we have both been saying the 6500 level is possible in 2006, and I stand by this.

Seems to me that UK companies learned hard lessons in the last 5 years and are now much leaner and meaner going forward, and lets not forget that UK compaines are further improving the bottom line via outsourcing to China.

B)

See perma - bears, as I always say it isnt all doom and gloom, there is always opportunity.

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The FTSE has gone it alone this year, with little help from the S&P/Dow. This can't continue, and IMHO the US markets are gearing up for a move up as soon as Greenspan gives the signal that the Fed rate hikes are over.

Oilco's trading on 13-14 times earnings, banks on 10ish, telecoms on 11ish - I am happy to continue buying shares next year. 6500 is "only" 12% away, and if that is "do-able", the all-time high of 6900 could even be within range.. but more likely 2007 for that, I reckon. Companies are cash rich and share buyback will lend further support.

I predicted 5300 for the FTSE this year, so I'm more than happy with where we have got to. We are getting to the 4-5 year "wash out period" where people forget the pain of the last bear market and start over with a clean slate, meaning new money entering the market and driving it up.

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Dr Bubb said the FTSE was about to burst did he not? I beleive he gave a date long since gone, or did he then change it to a later date?

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

I think we have both been saying the 6500 level is possible in 2006, and I stand by this.

It`s not how a CB saw it a few weeks back.

The RBA believes the boom in markets for shares, bonds and housing in many countries is unsustainable.

In the last SM crash things appeared to be all positive up to that fateful day, and we now have some similiar economic conditions globally today.

Dr Bubb said the FTSE was about to burst did he not? I beleive he gave a date long since gone, or did he then change it to a later date?

I believe he said the end of this cycle is October 2006

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I think we have both been saying the 6500 level is possible in 2006, and I stand by this.

Seems to me that UK companies learned hard lessons in the last 5 years and are now much leaner and meaner going forward, and lets not forget that UK compaines are further improving the bottom line via outsourcing to China.

B)

See perma - bears, as I always say it isnt all doom and gloom, there is always opportunity.

If people lose their jobs due to outsourcing who will these companies sell their products and services to? Or will we all live in the land of cocagne while the Chinese do all the work for us?

What hard lessons of the last five years are these, then dogbox? Care to elaborate?

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I believe DrBubb was referring to the 4-year presidency cycle, where stocks usually (but not always) perform better over the latter 2 years of the US presidency. This may well prove useful again.. in which case all rejoice.. Dow @ 14,000 and FTSE @ 8000 by Christmas 2008!

That'll pay for my house, yessirree. Buy your equities now while they're still cheap!

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

This may well prove useful again.. in which case all rejoice.. Dow @ 14,000 and FTSE @ 8000 by Christmas 2008!

If so, then I would say the housing market will well and truly be in the doldrums. :(

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What hard lessons of the last five years are these, then dogbox? Care to elaborate?

Companies have found ways round the ever increasing regulatory burden. Measures include the use of temporary or self - employed contractors, outsourcing, reducing pension exposure, wording employment contracts much more carefully (for example Merril Lynch now refuse to mention bonus's in contract and only ellude to 'descresionary bonus' keeping everything nice and vague).

Companies also became leaner following the dot - com crash.

I also believe compaines have become more ruthless, which shows up in all sorts of ways.

Everyone seems very profit focused nowadays, whereas 5 years ago you could obtain backing for some fairly wooly projects / start - ups, now its all about detail and adding value.

We are in better shape than 5 years ago and the world is our customer - forget the British consumer - if he reduces spending by 5%, the rest of the world will take up the slack.

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Yep a year end of around 5600 for the FTSE100 is pretty good going - up around 16% for the year. But it is mistake to get hung up on the FTSE100 when the FTSE250 (101 to 350th biggest UK companies) has been flying like crazy all year. See http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=14854 The FTSE250 is up around 28% on the year. Most days the FTSE250 outperforms the FTSE100 by a big margin and today is no exception. The FTSE250 has been outperforming the FTSE100 for years.

I lost loads of investments in the dotcom crash but made loads on FTSE250 companies so there is not much in between for me!!

Edited by penbat1

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Companies have found ways round the ever increasing regulatory burden. Measures include the use of temporary or self - employed contractors, outsourcing, reducing pension exposure, wording employment contracts much more carefully (for example Merril Lynch now refuse to mention bonus's in contract and only ellude to 'descresionary bonus' keeping everything nice and vague).

Companies also became leaner following the dot - com crash.

I also believe compaines have become more ruthless, which shows up in all sorts of ways.

Everyone seems very profit focused nowadays, whereas 5 years ago you could obtain backing for some fairly wooly projects / start - ups, now its all about detail and adding value.

We are in better shape than 5 years ago and the world is our customer - forget the British consumer - if he reduces spending by 5%, the rest of the world will take up the slack.

There's nothing new in any of this. What has gone is the dotcom and telecoms froth of a few years ago. I think there were a large swathe of companies completely unaffected by this - it was only soft southern design agencies and bogus techie companies that really suffered and they simply died.

Don't get me wrong, I've seen my industry change a lot in teh last five years, but I don't think it had any more effect than the changes we saw in the 80s, ie just part of the normal cycle.

The temporary labour stuff was going on 10 years ago, when I was a temp worker. It's why the govt changed the regs on temp workers, giving them similar rights etc..

The world is not our customer - it's our creditor and our servant - a very dangerous combination, since when your servants start lending you money, they soon stop being polite.

Course these things happen over decades and there are swings of fortune. Ever read the Audit of War by Correlli Barnet?

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And with fundamentals in place, FTSE's main components, oil, banks & telecoms, will be enough to propel it past 6000 next year IMHO. Can we reach 6500 in 2006? Don't bet against it.. Most people are still skeptical of stocks, meaning that sentiment can still improve markedly, and in addition, many funds will continue moving out of fixed income and back into equities through 2006 and beyond.

I don't think so this time van...too many people are getting the hint so I'm going for '06 being a down-year

...much rotation of propery into stocks I think...but in the meantime the smart money has bailed out of stock and left momentum players holding the baby.

...cash is smart next year.

....going for FTSE 5300 in '06 year-end.....with a dip down to 4500.

Edited by oracle

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Yipee, I earn't more from my shares than I did from my day job today. Makes up for the days I lose more than a day's wages from my savings.

Just a thought, if property bears are risk adverse, why do so many people on here invest in riskier investment groups than houses are meant to be?

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The FTSE has gone it alone this year, with little help from the S&P/Dow. This can't continue, and IMHO the US markets are gearing up for a move up as soon as Greenspan gives the signal that the Fed rate hikes are over.

.....well if you had gone east and looked a japan then you would have bagged 40% this year....ok more like 33% after currency conversion.

I did so in september and got 25% in 3 months.

......as far as the dow/s+p goes it depends on which cycle you are looking at.

there's a few folks that are looking at k-wave theory suggesting we are in secular bear market.

if you go by 1975-1989 cycle we could be looking at gains.....funnily enough in japan,but more industrial plays this time.

........it could be either.I've got bets on the latter with a bit in gold to hedge(this also did well in 75-89)...but if it is the former I will not lose my shirt.

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Guest muttley

....going for FTSE 5300 year-end.....with a dip down to 4500.

How soon do you think the dip will be,oracle?

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I believe DrBubb was referring to the 4-year presidency cycle, where stocks usually (but not always) perform better over the latter 2 years of the US presidency. This may well prove useful again.. in which case all rejoice.. Dow @ 14,000 and FTSE @ 8000 by Christmas 2008!

That'll pay for my house, yessirree. Buy your equities now while they're still cheap!

the presidential cycle is not something to be ignored....it's quite a useful entry point should you with to do so......could be a REALLY good one this time with the beijing olympics...........that point I would be looking to media companies.

in UK I would look at WPP etc for really good performance....just get in in '07!!

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Yipee, I earn't more from my shares than I did from my day job today. Makes up for the days I lose more than a day's wages from my savings.

Just a thought, if property bears are risk adverse, why do so many people on here invest in riskier investment groups than houses are meant to be?

Risk adverse? never! :lol: i just dump a couple of K into what can only be considered as higly speculative / dumb. Still, there is more chance of me comming out with my shirt than if i bought 7 times earnings.

Hey van what did you do with cnm in the end , i bailed at 180 and went back in yesterday which has kindly given me a +6%(paper profit, they went up about 10%) today, bit of a fluke 'it just looked right'

Edited by theChuz

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I don't think so this time van...too many people are getting the hint so I'm going for '06 being a down-year

...much rotation of propery into stocks I think...but in the meantime the smart money has bailed out of stock and left momentum players holding the baby.

...cash is smart next year.

....going for FTSE 5300 in '06 year-end.....with a dip down to 4500.

I disagree :-) Companies making too much money hand over fist right now, and dumb money has not really started to roll into the market in any big way just yet. Big players like RBS/VOD/TSCO are could all do 20%, which should keep the market boyant.

As I said, many people are still skeptical of stocks, which bodes well for new money entering the market. After a 3 year bear market between 2000-2003, stocks are still in "recovery mode".

Will be interesting to see how it all unfolds. No doubt we'll get a couple of wobbles along the way, but I would rather be long that short.

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Word is that the City Christmas bonuses are headed toward stocks. The up cycle for houses is over which makes conditions right for some nice growth in the markets. Avoid index funds again in 2006!

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How soon do you think the dip will be,oracle?

I am ABSOLUTELY convinced that there will be a war with iran in '06....this has in no way been factored in yet.

if you have a look at things like the VIX index they are all extremely low which tends to indicate complacency.....this is my thinking behind the pullback.

...just as many predicted(and warren buffet for that matter)...the dollar would weaken against the euro...sending eu to 1.50+ and it did the opposite.

..I'm predicting a similar contrarian action next year.

I understand van's reasons for saying the indices should rise next year as more jump onto the stock bandwagon...but that's precisely why I'm saying it won't happen.

...for what it's worth,keep a close eye on the dow in january.

there is an adage in the market......what goes in january goes for the rest of the year.It ain't foolproof but it usually follows trend....for what it's worth if we get the nod for war then I reckon we'll be looking at a VERY sharp slide in march.

I don't know how quick it will recover....may-sep is usually crap for stocks...but anywhere from sep on I would think the odds are ok.

Edited by oracle

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Risk adverse? never! :lol: i just dump a couple of K into what can only be considered as higly speculative / dumb. Still, there is more chance of me comming out with my shirt than if i bought 7 times earnings.

Hey van what did you do with cnm in the end , i bailed at 180 and went back in yesterday which has kindly given me a +6%(paper profit, they went up about 10%) today, bit of a fluke 'it just looked right'

Yeah..CNM.. wish I had bailed earlier, but I'm still holding a big chunk of these. Looks like a double-bottom is in place now and we should head back up at a pretty good rate or knots. Fundamentals are still good - the sell off is way overdone as usual. EPS came in at 35c for the year ending Jun-05 and current share price is 290c, so we're only trading on 8.2 times earnings.. for a company that is likely to do 50%pa growth over the next year or two. This time next year EPS could easily come in at 50c, and with recent kurfuffle consigned to the history books, we should be back up above 400c sooner rather than later, and possibly much higher. If a FTSE-100 company did 50% growth, you can bet it would be trading on more than 8 times earnings. Nice dividend, too.

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Yeah..CNM.. wish I had bailed earlier, but I'm still holding a big chunk of these. Looks like a double-bottom is in place now and we should head back up at a pretty good rate or knots. Fundamentals are still good - the sell off is way overdone as usual. EPS came in at 35c for the year ending Jun-05 and current share price is 290c, so we're only trading on 8.2 times earnings.. for a company that is likely to do 50%pa growth over the next year or two. This time next year EPS could easily come in at 50c, and with recent kurfuffle consigned to the history books, we should be back up above 400c sooner rather than later, and possibly much higher. If a FTSE-100 company did 50% growth, you can bet it would be trading on more than 8 times earnings. Nice dividend, too.

ahh im glad someone else thinks they have been oversold, i couldnt see a reason for such a persistant drop, bit of a management change but nothing that should of warranted the constant drop off. Better not take it way off topic though else we'll end up in the investment forum :lol: Im using the procedes from CNM to purchase a house - hows that :)

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  • 336 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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