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dryrot

If Brexit Solves The Housing Crisis, Bring It On (Spectator)

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Hi

don't think this has been posted:

"It is, at times, unclear that George Osborne is aware that the under-30s are voting in this EU referendum. When he talks about house prices plummeting post-Brexit, he talks as if this will strike fear into everyone’s hearts. For older people seeking to downsize, this might be true – but for almost everyone else, it’s not...."

usual stuff, but good to see it published again!

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/if-brexit-solves-the-housing-crisis-bring-it-on/

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Hi

don't think this has been posted:

"It is, at times, unclear that George Osborne is aware that the under-30s are voting in this EU referendum. When he talks about house prices plummeting post-Brexit, he talks as if this will strike fear into everyone’s hearts. For older people seeking to downsize, this might be true – but for almost everyone else, it’s not...."

usual stuff, but good to see it published again!

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/if-brexit-solves-the-housing-crisis-bring-it-on/

Yes I have seen a lot of young people talking about the multicultural effects of staying in the EU and how it is a good thing, but I think they are oblivious to the effects it has on them being able to get a Job, buy or even rent a roof over their head. These people are the ones who will lose out the most if we stay in.

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Hi

don't think this has been posted:

"It is, at times, unclear that George Osborne is aware that the under-30s are voting in this EU referendum. When he talks about house prices plummeting post-Brexit, he talks as if this will strike fear into everyone’s hearts. For older people seeking to downsize, this might be true – but for almost everyone else, it’s not...."

usual stuff, but good to see it published again!

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/if-brexit-solves-the-housing-crisis-bring-it-on/

I was out with five older (60s and 70s) folks the other day when the subject came up. All homeowners.

I didn't have to prompt anyone at all to hear "... lower house prices sound like a Good Thing ... should be a vote winner".

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..Carney is claiming today he has a responsibility to point out the risks of BREXIT to the voters.....that may be true ...but there are risks to remaining ..and he as the Head of the BofE should also point them out....does he not understand there are risks on both options.. ...something Cameron and Osborne need to learn also.....there must be an enquiry set up to investigate the unacceptable behaviour of this trio on the economic risk assessment / management at the centre of their campaign......at least the BREXIT campaigners have opted for controlled migration similar to Australia to manage the open door policy in place at present as the centre of their campaign.....seems logical ..... :rolleyes:

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Yes I have seen a lot of young people talking about the multicultural effects of staying in the EU and how it is a good thing, but I think they are oblivious to the effects it has on them being able to get a Job, buy or even rent a roof over their head. These people are the ones who will lose out the most if we stay in.

This exasperates me but they will eventually find out when they're in their 40s and still living with their parents.

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..Carney is claiming today he has a responsibility to point out the risks of BREXIT to the voters.....that may be true ...but there are risks to remaining ..and he as the Head of the BofE should also point them out....does he not understand there are risks on both options.. ...something Cameron and Osborne need to learn also.....there must be an enquiry set up to investigate the unacceptable behaviour of this trio on the economic risk assessment / management at the centre of their campaign......at least the BREXIT campaigners have opted for controlled migration similar to Australia to manage the open door policy in place at present as the centre of their campaign.....seems logical ..... :rolleyes:

No. Surely you understand by now that there are no risks whatsoever to remaining in the EU. None at all. Zero.

Whereas, if we leave, we risk the following:

- WWIII

- Putin taking over the world.

- Economic oblivion

- Massive immigration (?)

- Worker slavery

etc etc.

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Under-30s? Good one - in 2006 maybe.

In 2016 its the under-40s who are the unambitious layabout renter scum blowing all their wages on cider and sky tv and designer labels.

Christ knows what the under-30s have got to do with a discussion about the UK housing market.

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Under-30s? Good one - in 2006 maybe.

In 2016 its the under-40s who are the unambitious layabout renter scum blowing all their wages on cider and sky tv and designer labels.

Christ knows what the under-30s have got to do with a discussion about the UK housing market.

you forgot i-pads........

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Guest BillyNI

Yes I have seen a lot of young people talking about the multicultural effects of staying in the EU and how it is a good thing, but I think they are oblivious to the effects it has on them being able to get a Job, buy or even rent a roof over their head. These people are the ones who will lose out the most if we stay in.

I don't see how our own government would do anything to change that should we Brexit. They will still be implementing the same approach to the economy and globalisation.

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Guest BillyNI

..Carney is claiming today he has a responsibility to point out the risks of BREXIT to the voters.....that may be true ...but there are risks to remaining ..and he as the Head of the BofE should also point them out....does he not understand there are risks on both options.. ...something Cameron and Osborne need to learn also.....there must be an enquiry set up to investigate the unacceptable behaviour of this trio on the economic risk assessment / management at the centre of their campaign......at least the BREXIT campaigners have opted for controlled migration similar to Australia to manage the open door policy in place at present as the centre of their campaign.....seems logical ..... :rolleyes:

Hasn't seemed to help HPI in Australia :)

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Hi

don't think this has been posted:

"It is, at times, unclear that George Osborne is aware that the under-30s are voting in this EU referendum. When he talks about house prices plummeting post-Brexit, he talks as if this will strike fear into everyone’s hearts. For older people seeking to downsize, this might be true – but for almost everyone else, it’s not...."

usual stuff, but good to see it published again!

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/if-brexit-solves-the-housing-crisis-bring-it-on/

I think that George is gambling on the young people and renters being Labour voters, and more likely to vote in regardless. I think this is aimed at Middle England.

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What I like about it is that it's a small step to thinking 'why not deliberately crash house prices then ?'

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No. Surely you understand by now that there are no risks whatsoever to remaining in the EU. None at all. Zero.

Whereas, if we leave, we risk the following:

- WWIII

- Putin taking over the world.

- Economic oblivion

- Massive immigration (?)

- Worker slavery

etc etc.

Many people think staying in = no change = everything will remain as it is.

Either the EU is a net benefit to the UK, or it's a net LOSS to the UK.

If it's a benefit, then I have a question: why is the UK government borrowing so much money? Is the EU saving the UK government from borrowing even more, or is the EU exarcebating the debt the UK government is incurring?

If it's a LOSS, then doing nothing (remaining) is like a fat unhealthy person choosing to not change their lifestyle, because they're comfortable. One day, they develop diabetes and they're f1cked. But before that day arrives, it just doesn't feel worth it to go out of the house, ride a bike, eat "rabbit food" and all that nonsense. Too much (short term) pain. That person goes on and on about the pain they will endure if they change. And so it goes.

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What I like about it is that it's a small step to thinking 'why not deliberately crash house prices then ?'

Better than that - if there is a Brexit, Ozzie and Carney are obliged to follow through their threats. Bubbly Jubbly.

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Better than that - if there is a Brexit, Ozzie and Carney are obliged to follow through their threats. Bubbly Jubbly.

Yeah, but the obverse is true - if they Remain, they will do absolutely everything to ensure house prices will not fall (one their key "threats")

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Imho linking high house prices to 'multiculturalism' does not help get the message to under 30s etc. Most are simply not interested in that argument. It doesn't resonate with them as it strikes them as blaming a random person for their problems. And good on them for thinking that because it isn't the root of the problem.

The message should all be about how they have been f**ked by loose lending (tell them about liar loans, buy to let unregulated mortgages, interest only owner occupier mortgages without repayment vehicles, interest rate manipulation), unfunded pension promises (that are suppressing their wages), corrupt central banks and politicians, bailouts and massive executive bonuses for instituting share buybacks and the like at the expense of the 'shop floor' worker. And that's just the tip of the financialisation iceberg that's been created due to the apathy and ignorance we have.

Basically socialism for corporations and crony capitalism. Believe me, that *does* resonate.

Edited by Frugal Git

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Yeah, but the obverse is true - if they Remain, they will do absolutely everything to ensure house prices will not fall (one their key "threats")

Maybe, but they will/do anyway. If there's a Brexit they have their excuse.

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This exasperates me but they will eventually find out when they're in their 40s and still living with their parents.

Coalfaces. Again. Unless you're at the coalface of an issue (any issue), you're not bothered by it. In this case, young people who in the main live at home with their parents and haven't been exposed to ever increasing rents caused by mass migration & infrastructure in no way keeping up. Being a student means they haven't seen the ugly side of EU wide wage arbitrage. They will of course. But by then the referendum will be over, ten years will have passed and a new generation will come along to take the liberal utopia mantle from them. And so the play continues ad infinitum.

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What I like about it is that it's a small step to thinking 'why not deliberately crash house prices then ?'

What I don't understand is why any of these "forecasts" are given any credence at all? These are forecasts from the BOE & Treasury who were unable to see the GFC, consistently do worse than chance at predicting interest and inflation rates more than 6 months out and, frankly, couldn't run an ice-cream stall between them. And yet the media is lapping up everything they say as if it is Gospel. The bottom line is that the BOE & Govt don't have a fricking clue what will happen to house prices, the £, inflation or anything else whether or not we stay in the EU. FWIW my best guess is that we remain in the EU and house prices crash anyway - that'll learn 'em!

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Yep, everything they say is total nonsense!

No. Surely you understand by now that there are no risks whatsoever to remaining in the EU. None at all. Zero.

Whereas, if we leave, we risk the following:

- WWIII

- Putin taking over the world.

- Economic oblivion

- Massive immigration (?)

- Worker slavery

etc etc.

All these scare tactics have been giving me such a laugh and really show what a bunch of total liars the current crop of MPs are (yes, I know, they have always been liars).

All of these events could also happen if we stay in..... I'm looking forward, if we do stay in (which looks likely), for a bigger HPC than the 18% predicted by Osborne.

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The following comment from the article rings pretty true for me.

Been working grindingly hard for years to see about buying a place in London, and I'm pretty lucky to be on a salary that makes it just about possible (well, possible to 'win' a massive mortgage atleast!) but after all that you do start to think 'is it really worth it?', and then start to think that your savings and hard work might be put to better use somewhere else.

"2) Apathy: It's something I always notice when I come back, when the shine wears off. The challenge today is beyond "having a good go" becasue the numbers just don't add up anymore. That makes for a different type of apathy to some of the lazier sorts: it's a destruction of self-efficacy. You'd have to be super human, or very ignorant to avoid it. Quite simply, if you could feasibly leave the UK, why would you bother grinding yourself to death just to have what many less educated, less hard working, and less talented people had a generation ago. Those of your level were far better off. Many educated middle class people can barely afford what, twenty five years ago, was a bottom-rung worky home. Put alternatively, any effort you put in would be so chronically unrewarded compared to not only America, but Canada, down under (I guess), and myriad other places. Whats more, the list of those places keeps growing. Shame then on the defenders of the realm who, when faced with warranted and realistic criticism reply with "well, you should be glad you don't live in ______" (insert name of a third world country). My question is this: rather than being so defensive, why not have the kahunas to make a more appropriate comparison, such as with one of these countries. After all, many Brits still see themselves and the country as "better" than any of those I mentioned, for whatever reason."

Marcus

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..Carney is claiming today he has a responsibility to point out the risks of BREXIT to the voters.....

Carney should be mindful of his position.

that of banker is to react and adapt to the political will of the country, the electorate are the masters,not to try to shape or mould it to your liking.

less of the "perception management" and "NUDGE" theories in this country thank you.

nugde theories end up getting trumped by "thump" realities...where you'll be told in no uncertain terms to f*** off and stop interfering.

Edited by oracle

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Coalfaces. Again. Unless you're at the coalface of an issue (any issue), you're not bothered by it. In this case, young people who in the main live at home with their parents and haven't been exposed to ever increasing rents caused by mass migration & infrastructure in no way keeping up. Being a student means they haven't seen the ugly side of EU wide wage arbitrage. They will of course. But by then the referendum will be over, ten years will have passed and a new generation will come along to take the liberal utopia mantle from them. And so the play continues ad infinitum.

I suppose then the question is - where are the angry 25 to 40 year olds? The constituency that is being ripped off is growing in numbers daily, yet everything seems utterly peaceful in the UK. I honestly am starting to think it's something they're putting in the food and/or water. Or maybe it's Facebook and all that free online porn mentioned up thread!

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The following comment from the article rings pretty true for me.

Been working grindingly hard for years to see about buying a place in London, and I'm pretty lucky to be on a salary that makes it just about possible (well, possible to 'win' a massive mortgage atleast!) but after all that you do start to think 'is it really worth it?', and then start to think that your savings and hard work might be put to better use somewhere else.

"2) Apathy: It's something I always notice when I come back, when the shine wears off. The challenge today is beyond "having a good go" becasue the numbers just don't add up anymore. That makes for a different type of apathy to some of the lazier sorts: it's a destruction of self-efficacy. You'd have to be super human, or very ignorant to avoid it. Quite simply, if you could feasibly leave the UK, why would you bother grinding yourself to death just to have what many less educated, less hard working, and less talented people had a generation ago. Those of your level were far better off. Many educated middle class people can barely afford what, twenty five years ago, was a bottom-rung worky home. Put alternatively, any effort you put in would be so chronically unrewarded compared to not only America, but Canada, down under (I guess), and myriad other places. Whats more, the list of those places keeps growing. Shame then on the defenders of the realm who, when faced with warranted and realistic criticism reply with "well, you should be glad you don't live in ______" (insert name of a third world country). My question is this: rather than being so defensive, why not have the kahunas to make a more appropriate comparison, such as with one of these countries. After all, many Brits still see themselves and the country as "better" than any of those I mentioned, for whatever reason."

Marcus

Great quote. You could even add Thailand to the list of countries where someone with a good education will likely live a higher quality of life than his British counterpart (bigger house, lower cost of living even comparitive to wages, more chances of a family life because only one worker needed in the home). Not saying Thailand is some wonderful country (millions of very poor live there), but the phrase "boiling frogs" comes to mind in the UK - people put up with less and less and less and less.....and less.....for the amount of work they do.

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