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What Will Bremain Do For House Prices?

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Opinion polls are suggesting we'll remain in Europe. What are your predictions for house prices after the doomsaying about Brexit drops? Do you think we'll have a surge in confidence in the market. It doesn't seem to take much these days.

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House prices flat for 10+ years out here, away from London & its orbit.

What'll make the difference one way or t'other to London/etc is how far they follow through with measures against laundering dirty money in UK property. That's nothing to do with the EU: the brexit effect is if foreigners lose confidence, and likely applies much the same to dirty money in houses as to good money invested in the productive economy (and jobs, etc). Though probably the clean/productive money will be scared off first, because the dirty money has fewer alternatives and so may accept higher risks.

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Brexit or Bremain won't have much influence on the tsunami of grief that's about to hit the BTL market. No matter what happens at the polls in June BTL landlords will still feel the squeeze from higher taxation, a more aggressive Inland Revenue, tighter mortgage restrictions, and higher stamp duty. So given that BTL seems to have been one of the few areas of vigour in a property market otherwise characterised by dismally low transactions, it's difficult to see how UK house prices can do anything other than fall no matter what our European relationship looks like.

I'm not expecting the collapsing BTL card to be fully or even significantly played out in 2016. I STR'd back in 2005 on the expectation that a dip in house prices would cause BTL landlords to head for the exit and turn a dip into a crash. I was wrong. BTL landlords proved more dogged (or simply went into denial). But by 2017 and 2018 BTL highly leveraged landlords will be discovering that they can no longer afford to hang on. It won't be a matter of hunkering down and ignoring reality, they'll be facing bills dropping onto on the doormat that they simply won't be able to pay, and what's more some of those bills are likely to be from HMRC!

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Brexit or Bremain won't have much influence on the tsunami of grief that's about to hit the BTL market. No matter what happens at the polls in June BTL landlords will still feel the squeeze from higher taxation, a more aggressive Inland Revenue, tighter mortgage restrictions, and higher stamp duty. So given that BTL seems to have been one of the few areas of vigour in a property market otherwise characterised by dismally low transactions, it's difficult to see how UK house prices can do anything other than fall no matter what our European relationship looks like.

I'm not expecting the collapsing BTL card to be fully or even significantly played out in 2016. I STR'd back in 2005 on the expectation that a dip in house prices would cause BTL landlords to head for the exit and turn a dip into a crash. I was wrong. BTL landlords proved more dogged (or simply went into denial). But by 2017 and 2018 BTL highly leveraged landlords will be discovering that they can no longer afford to hang on. It won't be a matter of hunkering down and ignoring reality, they'll be facing bills dropping onto on the doormat that they simply won't be able to pay, and what's more some of those bills are likely to be from HMRC!

Excellent post.

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Brexit or Bremain won't have much influence on the tsunami of grief that's about to hit the BTL market. No matter what happens at the polls in June BTL landlords will still feel the squeeze from higher taxation, a more aggressive Inland Revenue, tighter mortgage restrictions, and higher stamp duty. So given that BTL seems to have been one of the few areas of vigour in a property market otherwise characterised by dismally low transactions, it's difficult to see how UK house prices can do anything other than fall no matter what our European relationship looks like.

I'm not expecting the collapsing BTL card to be fully or even significantly played out in 2016. I STR'd back in 2005 on the expectation that a dip in house prices would cause BTL landlords to head for the exit and turn a dip into a crash. I was wrong. BTL landlords proved more dogged (or simply went into denial). But by 2017 and 2018 BTL highly leveraged landlords will be discovering that they can no longer afford to hang on. It won't be a matter of hunkering down and ignoring reality, they'll be facing bills dropping onto on the doormat that they simply won't be able to pay, and what's more some of those bills are likely to be from HMRC!

Just because they're milking BTLs it doesn't mean they (the gov) want prices to drop. Right about the time prices are due to drop, watch the gov step in and announce HTB-to-infinity-and-beyond. They'll use tax payers even more to prop up prices. The government is broke anyway, might as well gamble even more of our money on the housing market.

edit: if ever there was a "tell" that the government will do ANYTHING to prop up prices, it was Osborne's Brexit warning of falling house prices. When we vote Remain, and IF house prices were to drop, Osborne - who wants to be PM - will look even more like a clown. He knows he has several cards up his sleeve to keep house prices high and moving higher.

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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Just because they're milking BTLs it doesn't mean they (the gov) want prices to drop. Right about the time prices are due to drop, watch the gov step in and announce HTB-to-infinity-and-beyond. They'll use tax payers even more to prop up prices. The government is broke anyway, might as well gamble even more of our money on the housing market.

I agree. The policy seems to be to discourage BTL (while getting a bit more in tax from the ones that stay), but encourage OO. IMO we've not seen anything yet - the big OO supporting policies are yet to come...

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edit: if ever there was a "tell" that the government will do ANYTHING to prop up prices, it was Osborne's Brexit warning of falling house prices. When we vote Remain, and IF house prices were to drop, Osborne - who wants to be PM - will look even more like a clown. He knows he has several cards up his sleeve to keep house prices high and moving higher.

Agreed. I can't see though how Osborne is going to get MMR-constrained FTBs into their own houses in time for them to vote Tory in 2020 if there isn't a sharp drop in prices between now and then. Doubtless he'll come up with some scheme though. Edited by rantnrave

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Opinion polls are suggesting we'll remain in Europe. What are your predictions for house prices after the doomsaying about Brexit drops? Do you think we'll have a surge in confidence in the market. It doesn't seem to take much these days

Most of the polls are made up ,just look at the methodology used for the two below ,make the evidence fit the crime if you ask me

Trust_Polls_zps4eacws6t.jpg

The poll was conducted between 11th and 15th May via telephone. The data has been weighted to be demographically and politically representative of Great Britain.

Source :- http://www.opinion.co.uk/article.php?s=daily-telegraph-poll-11th-15th-may

Latest developments
FT poll of polls. May 19, 2016STAYLEAVE47%40%

Source : FT Research

* The FT poll of polls is calculated by taking the last seven polls from unique pollsters up to a given date, removing the two polls with the highest and lowest shares for 'remain', and calculating an adjusted average of the five remaining polls, where the more recent polls are given a higher weight

Edited by long time lurking

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Brexit or Bremain won't have much influence on the tsunami of grief that's about to hit the BTL market. No matter what happens at the polls in June BTL landlords will still feel the squeeze from higher taxation, a more aggressive Inland Revenue, tighter mortgage restrictions, and higher stamp duty. So given that BTL seems to have been one of the few areas of vigour in a property market otherwise characterised by dismally low transactions, it's difficult to see how UK house prices can do anything other than fall no matter what our European relationship looks like.

I'm not expecting the collapsing BTL card to be fully or even significantly played out in 2016. I STR'd back in 2005 on the expectation that a dip in house prices would cause BTL landlords to head for the exit and turn a dip into a crash. I was wrong. BTL landlords proved more dogged (or simply went into denial). But by 2017 and 2018 BTL highly leveraged landlords will be discovering that they can no longer afford to hang on. It won't be a matter of hunkering down and ignoring reality, they'll be facing bills dropping onto on the doormat that they simply won't be able to pay, and what's more some of those bills are likely to be from HMRC!

I really hope you are right. That should all happen on about those time scales.

What makes you think HMRC will start to ramp up on chasing people? At the moment loads seem to get away with not declaring rental income.

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Just because they're milking BTLs it doesn't mean they (the gov) want prices to drop. Right about the time prices are due to drop, watch the gov step in and announce HTB-to-infinity-and-beyond. They'll use tax payers even more to prop up prices. The government is broke anyway, might as well gamble even more of our money on the housing market.

edit: if ever there was a "tell" that the government will do ANYTHING to prop up prices, it was Osborne's Brexit warning of falling house prices. When we vote Remain, and IF house prices were to drop, Osborne - who wants to be PM - will look even more like a clown. He knows he has several cards up his sleeve to keep house prices high and moving higher.

Why has he not used them then, to increase prices in the areas outside London that we hear have been flat for ten years, surely that would be a vote winner?

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I really hope you are right. That should all happen on about those time scales.

What makes you think HMRC will start to ramp up on chasing people? At the moment loads seem to get away with not declaring rental income.

HMRC `s big data system is said to take all the legwork out of this type of evasion detection ,whether that's right or not only time will tell

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House prices & the economy will tank one way or another regardless of the EU referendum. Voting remain will imo delay the inevitable and make it worse whereas vote leave things will get messy quickly but be less bad.

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  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   68 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


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