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Levy process

As We Approach Xmas, My Prediction Comes True

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have a great , binge-drinking christmas and a wet, cold and dark new year....!!!!

and let everlasting house price inflation rule forever.

10x salary....20x salary......100x salary...??

it doesnt matter - lets party..!!!!!

do do do. come and spend the wonga.

do do do. come and buy some stuff.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

Early on in the year I predicted that Christmas Day would fall on December 25th.

I don't wish to appear smug but I think that this prediction has proven to be 100% accurate.

As I see it, the year is essentially cyclic and we are now approaching the "Yule" point of the cycle, where you should all buy, buy, buy.

And all done without the aid of graphs, diagrams or pie-charts.

Mmmm... pie!

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At the start of the year I predicted that it would consist of 200 days.

Obviously as new data came in I revised my forecast, first increasing it to 250, as it became clear that we had already had over 180 days by June 30th.

I later upped this further to 300 in mid-July, as it was clear by then that 250 would be an underestimate.

After a couple of revisions, in September and then October I settled on 364 at the start of December.

I think that 364 will prove to be virtually spot on when the final figures are in on January 1st.

This prediction game is easy.

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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