Eu Refferendum = Win/win For Ukip?

[wonderpup]

If the outcome of the Scottish refferendum is any kind of a guide then it's likely that even if the EU reffrendum is lost by UKIP- and the remain side wins- their support is likely to grow as many of the newly politicized 'out' voters register their digust with the established parties. How many labour party supporters are unhappy with their parties support of the 'remain' side? In burnishing their credentials as faithful globalist technocrats I suspect the labour party elite has alienated a big chunk of their working class vote- and UKIP will pick up these people.

And should the 'exit' side previal UKIP can capitalize on this by taking the credit and citing it as evidence of their political potency. True, EU exit was their raison d'etre but they can and will reinvent themselves as a viable alternaitve to labour for many of the disgruntled labour voters who will have seen 'their' party in effect supporting the open door immigration policy that translates into lower wages and more competiton for local housing, healthcare and School places.

So either way I see a win for UKIP in this scenario.

[Executive Sadman]

Hard to say. The SNP is of course a lot older party, and has never had to rely on having a charismatic leader. Truth be told, you'd be hard pressed to find someone less charismatic than either Sturgeon or Salmond, and yet the party still persevered.

I suspect whatever the result, Farage might resign (and not come back this time!) and someone will have to work very hard to replace him. Nutall has the personality, but doesnt IMO have the 'leader' streak. Woolf seems more leaderlike, but not as much personality.

Also, the SNPs rise in scotland coincided with a lot of votes deserting the libdems, and labour too. There was a big pool of centre left/left votes up for grabs, regardless of independence or not. Some of that was probably due to the nature if the 'stay' campaign, but a lot just pissed off with the 'cartel' parties. That isnt really the case with UKIP. Maybe a few percent will turn right. But unless le Pen or some other 'far right' group wins big in Europe, de-toxifying the idea of something more nationalistic than the tories, I dont see it.

I guess UKIP might pick up a few % more voters from both labour and tories, but wouldnt bet on it.

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

Loose/Loose, surely?

[southmartin]

No I agree, it's win/win

In a scenario where the referendum is lost, then all UKIP have to do is sit around for a couple of years while the situation from Europe gets worse and worse, e.g

• immigration
• Euro economic implosion
• Effects of TTIP
• terrorist attacks

and then capitalise on that "we told you so" in the run up to the 2020 election. At that point the sensible thing to do would be to agree not to stand any UKIP candidate in a seat that was held by an Outer (other cons, lab or lib), and put all resources into the ones held by MPs who voted to remain

It's be a purple & blue landslide... similar to the landslide the SNP had.. though i'd still estimate that the Cons would be the larger party with Boris in charge by then having deposed the useless Cameron a year or so after the public came to the conclusion that hitching our wagon to the EU was a profoundly stupid idea.

Ironically if we vote to leave then there's the possibility that when the economy collapses (as we all know is coming) then Cameron and co will say "we told you so, it's the fault of us leaving the EU" rather than us chronically mismanaging the economy...

A 'close lose' might actually be the best result in the medium and long term

[Sheeple Splinter]

If the outcome of the Scottish refferendum is any kind of a guide then it's likely that even if the EU reffrendum is lost by UKIP- and the remain side wins- their support is likely to grow as many of the newly politicized 'out' voters register their digust with the established parties. How many labour party supporters are unhappy with their parties support of the 'remain' side? In burnishing their credentials as faithful globalist technocrats I suspect the labour party elite has alienated a big chunk of their working class vote- and UKIP will pick up these people.

And should the 'exit' side previal UKIP can capitalize on this by taking the credit and citing it as evidence of their political potency. True, EU exit was their raison d'etre but they can and will reinvent themselves as a viable alternaitve to labour for many of the disgruntled labour voters who will have seen 'their' party in effect supporting the open door immigration policy that translates into lower wages and more competiton for local housing, healthcare and School places.

So either way I see a win for UKIP in this scenario.

Like new labour in the mid 90's?

Perhaps a name change would be expedient and there's always the possibility brexit MP's, from all parties, might swap allegiance before GE 2015?

[South Lorne]

If the outcome of the Scottish refferendum is any kind of a guide then it's likely that even if the EU reffrendum is lost by UKIP- and the remain side wins- their support is likely to grow as many of the newly politicized 'out' voters register their digust with the established parties. How many labour party supporters are unhappy with their parties support of the 'remain' side? In burnishing their credentials as faithful globalist technocrats I suspect the labour party elite has alienated a big chunk of their working class vote- and UKIP will pick up these people.

And should the 'exit' side previal UKIP can capitalize on this by taking the credit and citing it as evidence of their political potency. True, EU exit was their raison d'etre but they can and will reinvent themselves as a viable alternaitve to labour for many of the disgruntled labour voters who will have seen 'their' party in effect supporting the open door immigration policy that translates into lower wages and more competiton for local housing, healthcare and School places.

So either way I see a win for UKIP in this scenario.

...of course.......Cameron is scraping the barrel regarding the Treasury's one sided report (why was it not a SWOT analysis?) by quoting Le Garde (outstanding charge of fraud http://europe.newswe...n-france-266911) and the Governor of the BofE (not supposed to have an opinion) as people who support the Treasury's position with their own recent comments (probably used as input for the Treasury's report).......Cameron & Osborne will be the losers.......

[Arpeggio]

I thought similar. According to many polls it moves around not too far from 50/50 for brexit vs stay.

If we end up staying in the EU, then how are those 50% or so, going to vote at the next general election.

Also, either result may divide the tories further, perhaps more so if we don't leave the EU as brexit supporters revolt.

If we leave, a good result, and not as much division because the pro EU MP's, I believe, aren't as motivated for much more than riding it out in the careers for what they can get.

[opt_out]

I'd think

Exit = Win but Lose. Got the wanted result but now redundant.

Remain = carry on

[reddog]

If the outcome of the Scottish refferendum is any kind of a guide then it's likely that even if the EU reffrendum is lost by UKIP- and the remain side wins- their support is likely to grow as many of the newly politicized 'out' voters register their digust with the established parties. How many labour party supporters are unhappy with their parties support of the 'remain' side? In burnishing their credentials as faithful globalist technocrats I suspect the labour party elite has alienated a big chunk of their working class vote- and UKIP will pick up these people.

And should the 'exit' side previal UKIP can capitalize on this by taking the credit and citing it as evidence of their political potency. True, EU exit was their raison d'etre but they can and will reinvent themselves as a viable alternaitve to labour for many of the disgruntled labour voters who will have seen 'their' party in effect supporting the open door immigration policy that translates into lower wages and more competiton for local housing, healthcare and School places.

So either way I see a win for UKIP in this scenario.

I have thought this for a while. Say the out side only get 45% of the vote, that means to me, 45% of voters are at least thinking about voting ukip.

Also no one likes to be on the loseing side, so people just edging towards out are likely to be more entrenched in their views if they lose.

I think we will be out in the long run whatever happens, but we could give ourselves a head start by voting out on 23rd June!!

Edited May 23, 2016 by reddog

[spunko2010]

I think connecting ukip to Brexit isn't something that a lot of people voting to leave are doing themselves. Shame really. Probably why Nigel is being forced out of the limelight recently

[bobbo]

I'd think

Exit = Win but Lose. Got the wanted result but now redundant.

Remain = carry on

+1 Nigel will also be out of a job. Probably end up moving to Germany with his wife and launch the ex-many campaign.

[oracle]

If the outcome of the Scottish refferendum is any kind of a guide then it's likely that even if the EU reffrendum is lost by UKIP- and the remain side wins- their support is likely to grow as many of the newly politicized 'out' voters register their digust with the established parties. How many labour party supporters are unhappy with their parties support of the 'remain' side? In burnishing their credentials as faithful globalist technocrats I suspect the labour party elite has alienated a big chunk of their working class vote- and UKIP will pick up these people.

And should the 'exit' side previal UKIP can capitalize on this by taking the credit and citing it as evidence of their political potency. True, EU exit was their raison d'etre but they can and will reinvent themselves as a viable alternaitve to labour for many of the disgruntled labour voters who will have seen 'their' party in effect supporting the open door immigration policy that translates into lower wages and more competiton for local housing, healthcare and School places.

So either way I see a win for UKIP in this scenario.

all they have to do:

the DUTCH said NO

the FRENCH said NO

the IRISH said NO

the SCANDINAVIANS say NO

NO means NO.

not i'm up for it after a few sherbets and some rohypnol.

BoJo is right.

empires built on coercion,rather than consent, always end badly.

Edited May 23, 2016 by oracle

[oracle]

I'd think

Exit = Win but Lose. Got the wanted result but now redundant.

Remain = carry on

sort of like that for me too.

there are some bits of europe that are better than UK, like PR systems for the northern european elections.

I happen to think that is a great deal fairer,and gives better balance than the punch&judy first past the post system we presently have.

it means no one party as the ability to ride roughshod over evreybody else.

that,however, does not seem to translate through to the continental politics....which is a problem.

I have an issue with an omnipotent commission that shall not be questioned,

so it's an "out" for me, unless there is serious change,very quickly.

[stormymonday_2011]

If the outcome of the Scottish refferendum is any kind of a guide then it's likely that even if the EU reffrendum is lost by UKIP- and the remain side wins- their support is likely to grow as many of the newly politicized 'out' voters register their digust with the established parties. How many labour party supporters are unhappy with their parties support of the 'remain' side? In burnishing their credentials as faithful globalist technocrats I suspect the labour party elite has alienated a big chunk of their working class vote- and UKIP will pick up these people.

And should the 'exit' side previal UKIP can capitalize on this by taking the credit and citing it as evidence of their political potency. True, EU exit was their raison d'etre but they can and will reinvent themselves as a viable alternaitve to labour for many of the disgruntled labour voters who will have seen 'their' party in effect supporting the open door immigration policy that translates into lower wages and more competiton for local housing, healthcare and School places.

So either way I see a win for UKIP in this scenario.

Agreed.

I mentioned this as a possibility on one of the threads on here last week. The problem for Cameron and the Bremainers is that a simple victory in the referendum is not enough. They really need a big win along the lines of the 67% to 33% victory won by the In campaign during the 1975 Common Market Referendumto kill the issue for a generation. Anything less than a clear 10% margin would be a sign that support for EU membership is seriously on the slide. Personally I think a narrow In vote is the best result for UKIP itself as a political party in terms of future electoral prospects within the UK since I would expect disillusioned Out voters in both Tory and Labour camps to start switching their votes to them. They also will be encouraged by the fact that Euroscepticism is now clearly on the rise all across the EU as recent elections on the Continent have shown. Moreover, the Treasury won't be able to blame any future recession on 'uncertainty over Brexit' if the government win the referendum. They will have to come up with a whole new raft of implausible excuses.

[wonderpup]

Exit = Win but Lose. Got the wanted result but now redundant

Or- they take the credit for pushing Cameron into holding a referendum he clearly did not want to hold and position themselves as the party that 'gets things done'. I can't see someone with an ego the size of Farage gently leaving the stage, especially if there is a flood of new support coming in from disgruntled 'exit' voters. UKIP may have started as a one trick pony but I think they have aspirations to be more than that now.

And a lot of labour support is now low hanging fruit in my opinion- Corbyn sold out on the referendum and this will come back to haunt him. Who the hell is he now? Just another establishment bitch who takes his cue from the f*cking IMF?

Strange bedfellows barely covers this degree of politcal perversion. The job of the labour party is to represent the interests of the people who vote for them, not to go on some gurning crusade for the best global citizen award- and supporting unlimited cheap labour from the EU as far into the future as anyone can see ain't cutting it.

Edited May 23, 2016 by wonderpup

[South Lorne]

I think connecting ukip to Brexit isn't something that a lot of people voting to leave are doing themselves. Shame really. Probably why Nigel is being forced out of the limelight recently

...he is being forced out of the limelight as many think he is the only one speaking truthfully.....and his following will be out to vote for him....

[shindigger]

I agree.

In actual fact a Bremain will probably do them more good as a party.

[Bear Hug]

...

And a lot of labour support is now low hanging fruit in my opinion- Corbyn sold out on the referendum and this will come back to haunt him. Who the hell is he now? Just another establishment bitch who takes his cue from the f*cking IMF?

...

Agree. Although conservatives are winning the battle for the most ridiculous Brexit scaremongering by a significant margin.

[Riedquat]

They don't appear to be staking their existence on Leave in the way the SNP seemed to be trying to do, so a loss will probably boost them. If we leave there will be a bit of "their job is done" but I think it'll be countered by support for the party that is now seen as most aligned to the public. So win-win there. The only way they'll lose is if Remain wins with a very large majority, which doesn't look likely.

[Giraffe]

The electorate will also expect the opposite of Tory brexit doom if we vote remain.

How they are going to pull that off will be interesting..

We will expect if we vote remain:

No recession. (one is probably due in the next 24 months anyway, so they have to defeat the natural cycle)

Continued soaring house prices.

No rise in unemployment. (unemployment probably bottoming as we speak)

Permanent low mortgage rates.

Soaring strong pound for our holidays. (feck the export industry)

I agree a close remain vote will be a disaster for the Tories and manna for UKIP.

[opt_out]

If Remain wins, there will be a lot of votes to pick up next election by any party promising another Brexit referendum.

[newbonic]

Hard to say. The SNP is of course a lot older party, and has never had to rely on having a charismatic leader. Truth be told, you'd be hard pressed to find someone less charismatic than either Sturgeon or Salmond, and yet the party still persevered.

I suspect whatever the result, Farage might resign (and not come back this time!) and someone will have to work very hard to replace him. Nutall has the personality, but doesnt IMO have the 'leader' streak. Woolf seems more leaderlike, but not as much personality.

Also, the SNPs rise in scotland coincided with a lot of votes deserting the libdems, and labour too. There was a big pool of centre left/left votes up for grabs, regardless of independence or not. Some of that was probably due to the nature if the 'stay' campaign, but a lot just pissed off with the 'cartel' parties. That isnt really the case with UKIP. Maybe a few percent will turn right. But unless le Pen or some other 'far right' group wins big in Europe, de-toxifying the idea of something more nationalistic than the tories, I dont see it.

I guess UKIP might pick up a few % more voters from both labour and tories, but wouldnt bet on it.

If Farage did resign for good, then there may be a few Lab or Tory MPs who could seize the change of being a bigger fish in a smaller pond. Rather than remain in a yet more tarnished Lab or Tory party.

UKIP famously got 1 seat with nearly 4 million votes, so there must be a groundswell of disenfranchised and disillusioned voters out there. Only Lab and Tory voters can gloat over their number of seats vs their number of votes...

[billybong]

The thing is the vote is what's best for the UK not what's best for UKIP - not to get sidetracked into maybe some tactical voting just for the longevity of UKIP. If there's a Bremain vote then that's it for ever with all the continued negative and imminent consequences for the UK and its people. With Bremain there's no chance of another vote (not unless UKIP gets in power - how likely is that) - under those circumstances any future eu break up will be due to some other reason which might never happen.

If there's a Brexit then UKIP's role will still be assured for a good while to prevent back tracking on the exit. The entire LibLabCon wants to stay in the eu or at least those running the LibLabCon want to stay in. For sure there will be attempts to back track on Brexit such as holding another vote etc.

Edited May 25, 2016 by billybong