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ecocollaps

Guy Analyses Rental Data

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This guy analysed rental data in SF and found that rents grew by 2.5% above inflation for the last 30 years.

https://medium.com/@andersem/a-guy-just-transcribed-30-years-of-for-rent-ads-heres-what-it-taught-us-about-sf-housing-prices-bd61fd0e4ef9#.xx0qgxxfc

Do you think a similar pattern exists in British cities?

He also identified 3 factors that could be used to predict the market:

  • The number of jobs located in San Francisco County.
  • The number of places in San Francisco County for people to live.
  • The total amount of money that is paid to everyone who works jobs in San Francisco County.
  • The number of jobs located in San Francisco County.
  • The number of places in San Francisco County for people to live.
  • The total amount of money that is paid to everyone who works jobs in San Francisco County.

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This guy analysed rental data in SF and found that rents grew by 2.5% above inflation for the last 30 years.

https://medium.com/@andersem/a-guy-just-transcribed-30-years-of-for-rent-ads-heres-what-it-taught-us-about-sf-housing-prices-bd61fd0e4ef9#.xx0qgxxfc

Do you think a similar pattern exists in British cities?

He also identified 3 factors that could be used to predict the market:

  • The number of jobs located in San Francisco County.
  • The number of places in San Francisco County for people to live.
  • The total amount of money that is paid to everyone who works jobs in San Francisco County.
  • The number of jobs located in San Francisco County.
  • The number of places in San Francisco County for people to live.
  • The total amount of money that is paid to everyone who works jobs in San Francisco County.

I would be deeply surprised if that holds in central london but not particularly if it holds outside.

A quick look at any international property portal of your choice shows it's about the same price to buy a house in monaco (0% tax) as in London (50% tax) which strongly suggests London's house prices are deeply detached from a reality in which local money influences property prices. You might find relationships especially if you look at specific areas but I'd expect average stats (as always) to dumb those down significantly.

The first rule of statistics is don't believe it. The second rule of statistics is to use simple heuristics (such as the above) to be certain you shouldn't believe it. The third rule of statistics is .... profit!

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A biologist, chemist and statistician went deer hunting. They saw a deer in the distance, the biologist took a shot but missed 5 years to the left. The chemist then took a shot but missed 5 yards to the right. The stationary jumped for joy saying 'We got it!!".

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A biologist, chemist and statistician went deer hunting. They saw a deer in the distance, the biologist took a shot but missed 5 years to the left. The chemist then took a shot but missed 5 yards to the right. The stationary jumped for joy saying 'We got it!!".

Autocorrect up to mischief?

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