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Trampa501

Why Has The Brexit Campaign Been So Badly Prepared?

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There is a reason why the majority of Brits won't vote for a Brexit, and it's not down to bribes or scare tactics (as some state on here).

The reason is the people leading the Leave campaign, despite working towards this moment for many years, have not decided on what trade status we will seek if we leave the EU.

Will we follow the example of Norway? Switzerland? Maybe even a similar status to Bosnia?

No one knows. The Leave campaign can't agree among themselves what the status should be.

How can you expect people to vote for something that isn't properly planned and agreed upon?

Some of the risks may be exaggerated – we may get off more lightly than we fear – but others may be underplayed. There is, first of all, a risk of recession, at worst even of slump, as the uncertainty about Britain’s future begins to sink in. Investment plans, both at home and abroad, may be postponed until the outlook becomes clearer. This could take anything from the statutory two years required to negotiate withdrawal from the EU to five years or longer. Obama has made it clear that the US would be in no hurry to negotiate any treaty that the UK might seek, and I can’t imagine that Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton would be any keener.

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n10/ferdinand-mount/nigels-against-the-world

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What are they going to say?

Brexit - "We will negotiate a trade deal with France. 10% tariff on onions, but free movement of wine and baguettes."

Remainers - "No you won't!"

France - "No you won't, you roastbeefs!"

Remainers - "You aren't even in government! Our government negotiators see only tariffs on UK exports of 1500%."

Brexit - "Why go down this road....."

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How can you expect people to vote for something that isn't properly planned and agreed upon?

And the only way for that to happen is to elect a majority government that want to make it happen. For some reason people are getting upset that this government doesn't favour Brexit.

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It seems almost as if there is no Leave campaign. It just seems to be Boris and Grove. The political journos seem to orgasm any time Gove's name is mentioned but I am pretty sure 99% of the public have no idea who he is.

The Leave campaign has too many grey men in grey suits.

Probaly, from Gove and Johnson's POV, everything is going well as they are in a tiny world surrounded by journos - and, no doubt, have loads of YES men and women agreeing with them that things are fine.

The Stay campaign has seemingly all the major broadcasters behind them and loads of trendy luvvies.

It wil be interesting how this turns out.

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It seems almost as if there is no Leave campaign. It just seems to be Boris and Grove. The political journos seem to orgasm any time Gove's name is mentioned but I am pretty sure 99% of the public have no idea who he is.

The Leave campaign has too many grey men in grey suits.

Probaly, from Gove and Johnson's POV, everything is going well as they are in a tiny world surrounded by journos - and, no doubt, have loads of YES men and women agreeing with them that things are fine.

The Stay campaign has seemingly all the major broadcasters behind them and loads of trendy luvvies.

It wil be interesting how this turns out.

I agree - most people will not know who Gove is.

Surprising that the Leave campaign is not leading with Nigel Farage more - although they may be wary of over exposure? Or is he unpopular with the Gove lobby?

Edited by Trampa501

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......

It wil be interesting how this turns out.

On one side you have the whole of the 1%, tv, media, reporters, £9 million of leaflets, all the government departments, schools, film industry, luvvies, bankers, houses, isis and the EU itself.

On the other.

Erm...

But it's still 50/50! :lol: That's your answer right there! Now, what way do I vote?

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I agree with the OP that the Brexit campaign don't appear as well polished or funded.. Some decent images and witty campaign messages need providing for circulation on social media.

I think you overestimate the majority of Brits if you think the finer points of any future trade relations are really the most pressing thing on their mind though.

And quite rightly.. this idea that everything falls off a cliff the second we leave is nonsense. A result in favour of leave would simply be recognition of the nations earnest intention to do so. At that point we have as much time as we want to make plans, decide an exit strategy or even simply put a gun to Merkel's head and renegotiate our membership properly like Dave pretended to do the first time around.

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I agree - most people will not know who Gove is.

I always presumed Gove was a Trojan horse. People who don't know him won't vote because of him. Those that do know him (Teachers) despise him and would vote against him even if it meant a thousand puppies were instantly put to death.

Edit to add: I think Farage keeping a low profile is very deliberate and very sensible. The media took considerable effort to paint UKIP a party of right wing racists during the general election.. the Brexit vote has to be seen to be in no way connected with that kind of scortched Earth.

Edited by libspero

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I always presumed Gove was a Trojan horse. People who don't know him won't vote because of him. Those that do know him (Teachers) despise him and would vote against him even if it meant a thousand puppies were instantly put to death.

Yep, always got a trojan horse vibe from him also.

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Sounds like the vultures are flying in for the kill now that there's been a 2% swing on some dubious poll.

What do you want the Leave campaign to do? Get a few luvvies to sign a letter? Fly in the president of some country to speak about the dangers of Remaining? Even if these things happened, you wouldn't hear about it on the BBC, now that their charter has been renewed for 11 years they've quickly brought out the daggers, haven't they? Great timing from the Tories, I always knew they were going to use the massive bias of the Beeb to their advantage.

As for the Remain campaign... Follow the money... EU funding to those companies in favour of Remaining:

eu.png?w=900

Edited by spunko2010

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I always presumed Gove was a Trojan horse. People who don't know him won't vote because of him. Those that do know him (Teachers) despise him and would vote against him even if it meant a thousand puppies were instantly put to death.

Edit to add: I think Farage keeping a low profile is very deliberate and very sensible. The media took considerable effort to paint UKIP a party of right wing racists during the general election.. the Brexit vote has to be seen to be in no way connected with that kind of scortched Earth.

He's got far too much sense. Edging away from the lame donkey of a campaign at an increasing rate of knots

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It`s quite simple one side remain has far more control over the media i think all the latest poll are not worth the paper they are written on all have sample sizes from sub 1k to 4-5k max and they are the minority

Take the FT`s poll of polls hOttps://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

Since when have the FT come out from behind their paywall ?

Quote

* The FT poll of polls is calculated by taking the last seven polls from unique pollsters up to a given date, removing the two polls with the highest and lowest shares for 'remain', and calculating an adjusted average of the five remaining polls, where the more recent polls are given a higher weight

Edited by long time lurking

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I think you overestimate the majority of Brits if you think the finer points of any future trade relations are really the most pressing thing on their mind though.

Thats for sure this will be decided on immigration ,most get the only economic report that matters to them on a weekly/monthly basis ...it`s called a payslip

Edited by long time lurking

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Thats for sure this will be decided on immigration ,most get the only economic report that matters to them on a weekly/monthly basis ...it`s called a payslip

Which is a shame, because really the only thing this is about is sovereignty.. who do we want in charge, a British government or the Germans.

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It`s quite simple one side remain has far more control over the media i think all the latest poll are not worth the paper they are written on all have sample sizes from sub 1k to 4-5k max and they are the minority

Take the FT`s poll of polls hOttps://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

Since when have the FT come out from behind their paywall ?

Quote

So what's new.

This is exactly what happened in 1975.

I actually think the print media are much more divided now than in the 1970s but their power to influence events is far less now than in the past.

Whatever the result it won't kill the issue. Indeed for UKIP the best result in terms of domestic political votes might be a narrow Remain majority leaving them the option to continue to chip away at Tory and Labour votes for the rest of this Parliament. In fact if percentage the Out vote is higher than it was in 1975 then those hostile to the EU may see it as a sign that history is swinging their way just as the SNP did with the Scottish Independence referendum recently. In both UKIP and the SNPs case winning a referendum now might not necessarily be the result they want no matter what they claim.

As for Cameron, the EU referendum has been called, organised and largely run by his government rather than being foisted on it by opposition parties I would expect it be largely rigged to get the result he desires. Indeed, the fact that most of the Leave campaign is being led by members of his own party you might wonder if the whole exercise is a little more than a bit of domestic political theatre in which the real issues about EU membership largely go undebated.

Edited by stormymonday_2011

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Which is a shame, because really the only thing this is about is sovereignty.. who do we want in charge, a British government or the Germans.

Because if we weren't in the EU the British Prime Minister would never do what the US President told him to do?

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Because if we weren't in the EU the British Prime Minister would never do what the US President told him to do?

That's slightly disingenuous.. We can vote in any prime minister we choose, US presidential sicophant or otherwise. We have no control over our European leadership at all.

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So what's new.

This is exactly what happened in 1975.

I actually think the print media are much more divided now than in the 1970s but their power to influence events is far less now than in the past.

Whatever the result it won't kill the issue. Indeed for UKIP the best result in terms of domestic political votes might be a narrow Remain majority leaving them the option to continue to chip away at Tory and Labour votes for the rest of this Parliament. In fact if percentage the Out vote is higher than it was in 1975 then those hostile to the EU may see it as a sign that history is swinging their way just as the SNP did with the Scottish Independence referendum recently. In both UKIP and the SNPs case winning a referendum now might not necessarily be the result they want no matter what they claim.

As for Cameron, the EU referendum has been called, organised and largely run by his government rather than being foisted on it by opposition parties I would expect it be largely rigged to get the result he desires. Indeed, the fact that most of the Leave campaign is being led by members of his own party you might wonder if the whole exercise is a little more than a bit of domestic political theatre in which the real issues about EU membership largely go undebated.

If you look at the poll results for 2015 here hOttps://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/ it`s plain to see why Dave &co called it when they did ......counting chickens ?

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That's slightly disingenuous.. We can vote in any prime minister we choose, US presidential sicophant or otherwise. We have no control over our European leadership at all.

Who is 'we' in that sentence?

The UK has more power than most countries in determining the direction of the EU.

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Who is 'we' in that sentence?

The UK has more power than most countries in determining the direction of the EU.

How is that?

Our MEPs claim they have no ability to propose bills or motions.. which only leaves us the power of asking Mr Juncker or Schulz very nicely as far as I can tell. We couldn't even influence any decent concessions when Cameron went on bended knee.. how do you imagine a stronger negotiating position than when we have a referendum gun to their head?

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How is that?

Our MEPs claim they have no ability to propose bills or motions.. which only leaves us the power of asking Mr Juncker or Schulz very nicely as far as I can tell. We couldn't even influence any decent concessions when Cameron went on bended knee.. how do you imagine a stronger negotiating position than when we have a referendum gun to their head?

The Council of Ministers has a lot of power at that's just the direct intergovernmental body. Why do you think people think Merkel is in charge if Juncker and Schulz have all the power?

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Britain has little or no say over decisions made in a European Union increasingly dominated by German interests, Iceland’s prime minister has said.
A leader of non-EU member state, Iceland’s Sigmundur Gunnlaugsson warned larger member states like the UK wield “diminishing power” in institutions still under the sway of the Franco-German alliance.
When it comes to the big stuff the decisions are made by two, and increasingly one country
Iceland's PM
“When it comes to the big stuff the decisions are made by two, and increasingly one country” Mr Gunnlaugsson told The Telegraph.
“Others are called to meetings to approve of what has been decided, if not in the afternoon then during the middle of the night.
“This seems to have become the standard way of doing things in Brussels”, he said.

Source :- http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/09/uk-wields-no-influence-in-german-dominated-eu-warns-iceland/

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The Council of Ministers has a lot of power at that's just the direct intergovernmental body. Why do you think people think Merkel is in charge if Juncker and Schulz have all the power?

To be honest i don't care what power our MEP`s have when it comes to voting ,i want to know how I can vote out any of the EU commissioners including the UKs one

if they are seen to be acting against my interests....and we all know we can't do jack shit about that

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  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   34 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


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